A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Regfan]

Traitors a disgusting role and Faradays an ugly man.

Feysal Stannis-Traitor-Flip points heavily against 4nxiety being Stannis-Scum which is bleh, still think he's Aegon scum but get back home tomorrow where I've got a pin board with what faction everyone likely is/how likely town, want to take a look at that before voting. Tammys motivator flip points towards Shinori being town somewhat; motivator is only useful if there's other town prs, masons don't count since a motivatored mason does nothing, 1-shot roles don't count either from memory? which would leave her only useful for 2 flipped roles, mass-claiming soon might actually be an option though, would confirm it. if we're doing that then Shinori should refrain from outting results until mass-claims finished, then he outs them, either that or he finds a way within rules to code them and refer back to them after a mass-claim. (Insert typical comments from Magua such as lolzmass-claim idiot).

Zdenek, I don't follow either of Tierces bolded quotes there at all being 'traitor hunting', think Tierces whole comments are just her being flavoursome similar to her back and forth of flavour discussion with Tammy and I don't think scum would be expecting a traitor in the setup unless there's only 2 killing scum which I don't think fits balance wise. With there being 3 killing scum they would likely consider a SK/2nd scum-team and that's about it. Also not seeing the 'subvert' thing either.

Molla, know this is the billionth time it's been asked but you can fully go into complete detail about the message you got D1 for me.

[Zdenek]

If Tyene flips Stannis, we auto-lynch Regfan.

[Tyene Sand]

And yet another role it will be difficult finding connections with due to presumed one-way connection.

AV, go read the game. Zdenek, no, sorry, still not scum. I was playing around with flavor due to the D1 mechanics.

This leaves me wondering, though. We still have a kill missing from N1--so unless there was double-killing on masons that weren't contributing much, there is the possibility that Feysal was recruited that night (in which case Mason #2 was killed by Aegon-scum). That might help figuring out potential connections as we cannot fully assume he was an

un

recruited traitor.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 5, Votecount 1

Tyene Sand (2) - Zdenek, AurorusVox

Not Voting (15):

Minimum, 4nxi3ty, Tyene Sand, kortul, Shinori, Plums Yo Mamma, Magua, Regfan, Feysal, Pandora, Timeater, BBmolla, Thor665

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: 25th October at 19:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-25 14:30:02)

[Regfan]

Zdenek, go re-read Tierce-RedFF/DCL interactions. They're not partners. Pretty sure she's town.

[Regfan]

Someone else should take a look at Feysals interactions / mentions of Minimum for me. Probably heading to bed, 6am.

[Tyene Sand]

Bleh. Nevermind that, I still stand by this:

Are you seriously telling me that Feysal's hypo-scumteam is so incompetent as to not help him/nudge him via QT during the night phases, at least? Because Feysal looks seriously abandoned like only town-Feysal would be at this stage. I am not moving and I will not contribute to a Feysal lynch.

He makes more sense as an unrecruited traitor.

...why Benmage? Lyanna I can get, but Benmage?
Just because I'm paranoid, it doesn't mean there isn't scum among my stronger-players townreads.

[Minimum]

Vote: Thor

Could go AV or Anxiety too.

[4nxi3ty]

Zdenek, I don't follow either of Tierces bolded quotes there at all being 'traitor hunting', think Tierces whole comments are just her being flavoursome similar to her back and forth of flavour discussion with Tammy and I don't think scum would be expecting a traitor in the setup unless there's only 2 killing scum which I don't think fits balance wise. With there being 3 killing scum they would likely consider a SK/2nd scum-team and that's about it. Also not seeing the 'subvert' thing either.

I ran a game with a traitor and the scum did know there was a traitor in the setup and the scum were flavorful when hunting for the traitor.
I don't think it is a homerun since it is not out of character for tierce to use flavorful phrases.

plus I want zdenek to explain his yesterdayread of me.

If Tyene flips Stannis, we auto-lynch Regfan.

nope.

[Regfan]

I lied, I'll go to bed when I finish with this otherwise I'll forget a bunch of what I'm thinking when I wake up. Green = Flipped Town + Self. Blue = Flipped alternate-scum-team to Feysal. Red = Flipped Feysal-scum-team. Orange = People positive Feysal isn't traitor to. Going to look at DCL/Peoples interactions with DCL now. Hopefully can narrow it down a lot more, will say that Feysals probably stuck partners other than DCL in Town/ProbsTown if he could.

Spoiler:

TOWN

Lyanna Stark

I should not even need to explain this, but she strongly reminds me of her town play in the game we played.

Mockingjaye

I remember some people voicing suspicion of her, but I don't see why. She also reminds me of past town games, and she made a strong entrance post. She has been missing, but that is understandable due to the hurricane scare.

MagnaofIllusion

I think I've said before that he is never obvtown, since I've seen him called that in every scum game of his I've been in, but I think he is town in this game. I don't expect him to live long enough that I'd have to second guess myself.

Plum's Yo Mamma

I've liked their contributions, and seen a glimpse or two of the inner workings of their hydra, and they looked convincing. I would like to know the status of their Shinori read though. They had a scum read on Hyperion, but that sort of disappeared after Shinori replaced in.

Regfan

Strong entrance and good thoughts, which I've come to expect from him as town.

Plessiezarus

Reads as strong town for scumhunting and questioning other players.

Pandora

Simply put, I agree on the hydra dissonance making them town. In addition, I liked how relaxed Shadoweh sounded to me.

BBmolla

Relaxed town, seems very unlike his scum self, seems unconcerned with what others think of him or his ideas.

SnowStorm

greenknight

Masons.

LEANING TOWN

Minimum

Not obvtown, but not suspicious to me either. I'm content to wait and see how their play develops.

Tyene Sand

I think our disagreements are settled now, and I ended up with a town feel from her responses to me.

Dolorous Edd

I had them as null very long, or as possible scum by process of elimination, but their response to my desire to kill them seemed clearly town to me.

kortul

He seems to be progressing systematically at reading and establishing reads, and I like that as probable town.

Shinori

I liked the point about them becoming a hydra, and especially admitting the new head had played mafia before and offering meta.

StefanB

He looks like confused town, and him catching and correcting his own mistakes indicates that he is trying to figure things out.

Benmage

He seems to be acting like his usual, undeservedly arrogant self. I don't like how he once called me town and later called me a good choice, but sadly that is nothing new to him. I remember the incident where he deliberately voted one of his town reads.

Saporerint

I know Salamence was suspected for the way he jumped on me, but I've seen him do the same and flip town cop. I also had a thought about his walls - they are neither in alphabetical or signup order, or any other order I could determine. That suggests he would have been moving the names around trying to work out where they belonged, which would mean scumhunting. On Saporerint I have nothing yet.

NULL

Staeg

Apart from his questionable vote on kortul, I don't remember anything he has said or done this game. Need to look into.

Albert B. Rampage

Neither he or his predecessor has done enough to base a meaningful read on.

Shadow1psc

I don't actually find him all that suspicious. He has been attacked all day for not scumhunting enough, and he has not made any effort to appease the town, nor has he reacted aggressively, like I would expect from him as scum.

Seraphim

I liked pappum's entry post, but that is pretty much all the content we ever got from this slot.

Mastermind of Sin

I have no idea how to read him when he is acting like this.

Jal

He is pretty much a non-entity to me, as nothing has caught my attention that I could remember.

LEANING SCUM

bvoigt

He has twice attacked my case on Starbuck, and me through it, which does not please me in the least. I still need to finish that ISO though, I haven't been able to do that yet.

DCLXVI

I view redFF as a village idiot and basically unreadable. As for DCLXVI, I hated his choose on me for being too neutral. I don't even know what he means by that.

SCUM

Starbuck

Not going to explain this again now, I've done so often enough.

[Tyene Sand]

it is not out of character for tierce to use flavorful phrases.

What games of mine have you read?

[Shinori]

I found another person with an investigative role if that matters at all.

I can out the name if we want.

Anywho I'm off to work Be back in a few hours.

[Zdenek]

Zdenek, go re-read Tierce-RedFF/DCL interactions. They're not partners. Pretty sure she's town.

You're going to have to point them out to me because what I care about is Tierce chastising people for being on vanity wagons and suggesting that she'd prefer to choose someone who she trusted with a kill, and then as a lynch wagon was building on DCL, she decided to start a vanity choose wagon on him.

I found another person with an investigative role if that matters at all.

I can out the name if we want.

Anywho I'm off to work Be back in a few hours.

Can you say what the investigative role is or is that all you know?

[Tyene Sand]

...because I was voting bvoigt? Who had nine votes on him, including mine? You're saying I chose to lead a wagon on my able-to-kill scumbuddy instead of bussing a role that presumably couldn't kill? That makes absolutely no sense, Zdenek. Look at this and call me scum to my face again, I dare you:

Day 1, Votecount 41

Saporerint (6) - bvoigt, Mastermind of Sin, Shadow1psc, BBmolla, Shinori, Albert B. Rampage
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
Shinori (1) - Staeg
Shadow1psc (3) - Lyanna Stark, Benmage, kortul

bvoigt (9) - Plum's Yo Mamma, greenknight, SnowStorm, Dolorous Edd, Tyene Sand, Pandora, MagnaofIllusion, Seraphim, StefanB

Jal (1) - DCLXVI
DCLXVI (2) - Regfan, Minimum

Not Voting (5):

Mockingjaye, Plessiezrus, Jal, Feysal, Saporerint

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 5th September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

CHOOSE TO EXTERMINATE

Dolorous Edd (1) - Jal

Feysal (9) - Bvoigt, greenknight, Shinori, DCLXVI, Dolorous Edd, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage, Pandora, SnowStorm

Minimum (2) - StefanB, Lyanna Stark
Starbuck (1) - Starbuck
Shadow1psc (1) - Mockingjaye
greenknight (9) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Tyene Sand, Plessiezarus, kortul, Seraphim, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan, Feysal
kortul (4) - Mastermind of Sin, BBmolla, Staeg, Shdow1psc

Not Choosing (1):

Saporerint

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'. Once a choose has 15 votes it will be locked in but not end day.

Day 1, Votecount 42

Saporerint (6) - bvoigt, Mastermind of Sin, Shadow1psc, BBmolla, Shinori, Albert B. Rampage
Feysal (1) - Starbuck
Shinori (1) - Staeg
Shadow1psc (3) - Lyanna Stark, Benmage, kortul

bvoigt (9) - Plum's Yo Mamma, greenknight, SnowStorm, Dolorous Edd, Tyene Sand, Pandora, MagnaofIllusion, Seraphim, StefanB

Jal (1) - DCLXVI
DCLXVI (2) - Regfan, Minimum

Not Voting (5):

Mockingjaye, Plessiezrus, Jal, Feysal, Saporerint

With 28 alive it takes 15 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 5th September at 11:59pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

CHOOSE TO DELETE

Dolorous Edd (1) - Jal

Feysal (9) - Bvoigt, greenknight, Shinori, DCLXVI, Benmage, Albert B. Rampage, Pandora, SnowStorm, Dolorous Edd

Minimum (2) - StefanB, Lyanna Stark
Starbuck (1) - Starbuck
Shadow1psc (1) - Mockingjaye
greenknight (8) - Plum's Yo Mamma, Minimum, Plessiezarus, kortul, Seraphim, MagnaofIllusion, Regfan, Feysal
kortul (4) - Mastermind of Sin, BBmolla, Staeg, Shdow1psc
DLCXVI (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Choosing (1):

Saporerint

With 28 alive it takes 15 to 'Choose'. Once a choose has 15 votes it will be locked in but not end day.

You're claiming I counterwagoned my own traitor (that you claimed I knew about)

with my own scumbuddy?

What on earth are you smoking?

[Zdenek]

I can totally see the scum logic in bussing a buddy to pick up an extra kill and town cred, and it even makes more sense if you think that you have a traitor you can recruit.

[Zdenek]

I can totally see the scum logic in bussing a buddy to pick up an extra kill and town cred, and it even makes more sense if you think that you have a traitor you can recruit.

[kortul]

Once i saw the "flip" i checked the Traitor role on a wiki, and a bit confused by it, too many possibilities of who knows what. Have anyone seen Faraday using traitors before? If yes, was the main team aware of traitor, and did traitor knew anything about his teammates? Because i am not sure how to analyze interactions between Feysal and other players right now. Like i suspected that he may belong to the Stannis faction because of his offhanded vote on DCL, but if he had no idea that DCL is his teammate, then this logic was wrong... Second part of his role (Specific Neighborizer) most likely means that he wasn't aware who were his teammates, but maybe i just don't understand what Specific means. Hell, Faraday makes analyzing interactions of both factions as hard as possible.

Also, what are the ways to recruit traitor to the main faction? From a wiki i got an impression that attempting to kill him will do the trick, are there any other options? That will help searching for hidden meanings in the posts.

...why Benmage? Lyanna I can get, but Benmage?

Why do you think Lyanna was killed?

Zdenek, i already asked Shinori the same question on one of the previous days, apparently he knows only the nature of the action.

[Tyene Sand]

Spoiler: Bite me, Zdenek.

Starbuck: Scum won't shoot other scum. Scum will choose town. But it's still a 1:1 result on N1, which would benefit town since there's more town than scum to begin with. Choosing someone

you know

to be town (i.e. yourself) is stupid, because odds are you're going to end up shooting town since there's more town than scum, and then it's 2:0. Best odds for town is choosing-town-who-shoots-scum, another 1:1, but it's not very likely to happen.

Make sense?

UNVOTE: Starbuck
VOTE: Feysal

UNCHOOSE: Feysal
CHOOSE: redFF

Unnecessary posturing.

Let's reverse that, actually.

UNCHOOSE: redFF
CHOOSE: Feysal

UNVOTE: Feysal
VOTE: redFF

you don't get something

Starbuck appears to be hopeless (sic) confused about

And this is why that Starbuck wagon is a terrible idea.

I believe there are intelligent minds even outside Dorne, and thus suspect the votes still on Starbuck after her confusion became patent. However, I very much disagree with Pandoreh that Dolorous Edd is the most egregious of those voters; he seems mostly confused, too (Does the Wall freeze your brains as well as your minds, oh Watchman?), while redFF is openly

chiding

Starbuck in a way that is quite improbable as someone who is trying to figure out her alignment. As I doubt redFF is town gone into rabid tunnel mode 90 posts in, his behavior is highly suspect and merits a lovely

wedding

wagon and painful death.

My bad, I

try to block out everything MoI says

forgot that.

Is this what warranted the bickering? Because it's the only strike-out that was remotely related to you.

You can't take lighthearted jabs at the fact that you're a wall-poster and I don't particularly like your style of play, which means I stop reading ASAP once I get a townread on you?

In that case, I'll keep it strictly business from now on. I'm sorry if that offended you, but it's the honest truth and you've seen me do so before, so I don't know where the surprise is coming from.

Ok, why are people talking about PLing MoI? He didn't seem like PL material the game I played with him.

No one is doing that, thus my confusion as to why he's playing the pity card when no one is pushing him on policy (though yes, he deserves it).

No one is doing that

, thus my confusion as to why he's playing the pity card when no one is pushing him on policy (

though yes, he deserves it

).

Minimum has basically made it know I'm a completely acceptable Policy lynch

There are a lot of inconsistencies here. At least from my POV right now.

Also, still re-reading stuff. Dolorous is def town though, she is legitimately scum-hunting.

Stop skimming the latest page and go read the game. You'll understand the policy stuff when you're through.

I am, but I'm terrible with names You have no idea how many times I have to skip back to the appendix to figure out who is who. I didn't take the time yet to figure out who you are yet.

Ok, so MoI thinks people are trying to Pl him but they aren't? But some players are saying that MoI would deserve to get PLd?

The fact that he deserves it does not mean it's happening. Seriously, go read, this is among of the tiniest things you could have poked at and the fact that you're going at it without all the context makes it all the more frustrating to see. You have 29 pages to go through, please get started instead of interjecting about this kind of thing.

Um the reason I commented on it was because it was the latest post right as I joined. I am going to comment on other stuff. You do realized I have 25 pages to go over.

I do realize that. That's why I've asked you to

stop commenting on things you have no context for

and

please go read

, which appears to be something you're not giving priority to.

I may have a bit of a short fuse with you, but my identity should clue you in as to why's that. So please, just go do your catch-up and get back when you have actual reads.

Yes, I know who you are.

Things I think I know:
-Dolorous is town. From the posts of hers I skimmed its clear she is active and definitely scum hunting which is good.

-

Tierce's

Tyene Sand's reaction to me joining the game was just very odd. Before reading the thread I start commenting on the few most recent posts and she
somehow takes offense at that, yes it may have been something minimal, but hey, I was trying to figure out what was going on in the game and my posts did not warrant that type of negative reaction. Not sure how to read her right now. I'm worried that she is one of those players I just always think is scummy.

[snip]

Townreads: Dolorous, MoI, shadow
null leaning scum: Tierce
Scumreads: Jal, Feysal

I'll have more later but this is a good starting point for a game this big.

Was just planning on just reading this thread before bed, but this needs a response.

he jumps into a discussion he has little context about

Why is this bad? I was just trying to figure out what was

currently

going on by asking questions and such. Of course I'm going to have little context about it, I'm pretty sure I started posting before I had done much (if any) reading on the game.

then proceeds to state reads on a very minimal percentage of the playerlist not mentioning or commenting on a lot of the bigger things going on.

It's nice to know that you expected me to have reads on every player in a 28 player, 35 page game after skimming the thread for a little less than an hour.

I'll have more later but this is a good starting point for a game this big.

I like what you're doing here Reg. You went and placed high expectations on me. (Must have reads on everyone and know the context of the game,) and of course being that I had just replaced in there's no chance I would meet either of those so you get an easy way to call me scum. I'm sure their is a name for this logicall fallacy you are promoting but I can't think of it now.

In saying I had two few reads you conveniently missed the part where I said I would be giving more later. In fact I'm find adding Regfan to my scumlist. His attack on me is very terrible and quite frankly a bit opportunistic.

Holy overreaction batman.

DCLXVI deserves to die. He hasn't been very active elsewhere either, true, but he HAS been online and posting elsewhere while sitting on the most useless vote possible at this stage. The least he could do was pick a townread and sheep it onto usefulness, which he did SIX DAYS AGO and never changed when Dolorous Edd's vote on Jal is long gone. (Also, lol at the "omg I'm voting people it's not my fault they got caught before I got here look at me being defensive over votes I should be overjoyed about but oh wait why do I have such strong scumreads when I just claimed to be tired and sheeping?") Three days of absence from the thread and less than three days to deadline. GET MOVING OR YOU DIE. I don't even give half a damn if you shoot

me

, at this stage I'd suicide onto you myself and I'm the one who didn't take an action N1 when I was a suicide vig on Glork's Haiku Mafia. I want to see blood here.

DCLXVI's meta claim is bullshit. Honestly, if I see a scum game of his in the near future where he opts to take the 'scum meta' catch-up post instead of what he is apparently aware is his 'typical town' catch-up style, there will be Issues with trust tells. If you're aware you do it, there's no freaking way you won't apply known town meta to scum games when possible (barring occasional subversions for certain situations). So yeah, I am most definitely not buying that. The Regfan bit sounds contrived, too.

And he's still a good Choose pick since he claimed VT. Threats to shoot Regfan or whoever else won't be the thing to move me.

I do admit I like the thinking behind this, though:

I'm not saying who I'm going to vig. Simply because I want to leave the possibility of myself and scum targeting the same player in case I shoot a townie.

DCLXVI's meta claim is bullshit. Honestly, if I see a scum game of his in the near future where he opts to take the 'scum meta' catch-up post instead of what he is apparently aware is his 'typical town' catch-up style, there will be Issues with trust tells. If you're aware you do it, there's no freaking way you won't apply known town meta to scum games when possible (barring occasional subversions for certain situations). So yeah, I am most definitely not buying that. The Regfan bit sounds contrived, too.

I'm not the one who brought meta up in the first place. regfan did.

Regfan specifically asked me about replacement meta. I hadn't said anything (or thought anything for that matter) about my replacing style.So nope, I wasn't using any type of trust tell.

Tierce

Tyene Sand

: I think she has some sort of vendetta against me, which initially made me suspect her and I had her as null-scum at the start, but after thinking about it I think scumtierce would act more rationally and she is playing very similarly to otherworld mafia where she was town.

Null-Town

Go take your inane theories elsewhere.

[Minimum]

Zdenek, you do realize Tierce knows Feysal's no good at scum, right? Signalling to him or counting on him for long-term success seems imprudent.

Kortul, I'd guess that he didn't know who the Stannisians were given the specific Neighborizer part of the role. Rest is fairly variable.

Not opposed to Shinori claiming his result.

[Tyene Sand]

Why do you think Lyanna was killed?

She was obvtown. There may be other things, but I haven't looked at her vote patterns recently. The Benmage kill bugs me a lot more and I want to see which one fits each team better.


And with that quick D1 review, I'm glad Thor wasn't lynched yesterday and I won't be voting him today. This post was super townie and I had forgotten about it:

Just a few things at the top of my head while I have some time:

- I'm going to believe Snow's claim. I've noticed there hasn't really been a lot of opposition to Snow's wagon, at least not

strong

opposition. Even if this game is multiball and Snow would have few teammates, I at least would except a decent counter-wagon or argument at the very least. Instead, Snow's wagon seems to have grown as a counter-wagon of its own. I don't think Snow's mason buddy should claim, at least not now. No point right now, unless the other is being ran up.

- I'm a bit skeptical of the "support" I got when a few votes got on me. Maybe it's because in many games I've had scum buddy up to me in many games and throw a town read at me (maybe it's because I'm one of those ones who'll defend a town read to hell and back) but it seemed odd, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of those individuals is scum.

- I need to re-read the last 9 pages more in-depth before I put a vote back down.

Benmage: When did Jal Shinori and Kortul's become the 3 people to vote between?

[Tyene Sand]

Hold on a moment. Am I hallucinating or was "Specific Neighbouriser not there when Feysal was lynched? The impression I had was that he was only lynched as "Informed Traitor", and this neighborizer thing was confusing me until I went back and looked at the flip. Did I just not look at it right the first time?

Elsewhere, Brienne of Tarth looked for Catelyn Stark. Alas, she could not be found. (This will either make sense...or won't)

?

Excuse me, I need to go weave flowers into my tinfoil hat.

[Minimum]

Hold on a moment. Am I hallucinating or was "Specific Neighbouriser not there when Feysal was lynched? The impression I had was that he was only lynched as "Informed Traitor", and this neighborizer thing was confusing me until I went back and looked at the flip. Did I just not look at it right the first time?

Ask Faraday?

[Tyene Sand]

Can't hurt.

@mods: Was "Specific Neighbouriser" always part of Feysal's role flip, or did you forget and it was added to the post a posteriori?

[kortul]

Tierce, it was there from the beginning, once i saw the "flip" i checked wiki article on traitors and was also trying to find what specific means. Then i was mulling at that combination for some time, but came to no definite conclusion as to the exact meaning and how to analyze Feysal interactions. I am also concerned what Informed means in his case.

And Tierce, Aegon killing one of the masons on night 1 is crazy, they should be setting ground for the bvoigt "vig" kill (ie killing Shadow to avoid Torturer results, and claiming that bvoigt were blocked), and i think this is the missing kill. Which means that Stannis killed both masons, most likely to see where the kill from claimed vig bvoigt will land if he isn't Tortured (he wouldn't shoot claimed masons as a claimed vig).

Thanks, Minimum. Going to sleep, will see tomorrow whether there will be more answers to my questions before rereading Feysal.

[Eddard Stark]

Perhaps a little less Dornish Red, Sand Snake? The flip wasn't changed.