A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Eddard Stark]

Day 5, Votecount 5

Tyene Sand (1) - Zdenek

Thor665 (3) - Minimum, BBmolla, Plums Yo Mamma

Timeater (2) - Magua, kortul
Zdenek (2) - 4nx3ty, AurorusVox
Magua (1) - Timeater

Not Voting (6):

Shinori, Regfan, Regfan , Pandora, Thor665, Tyene Sand

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: 25th October at 19:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-25 14:30:02)

Thor and Zdenek are both V/la, so not due a prod.

I'll put Regfan twice on the votecount.

[Regfan]

It's somewhat depressing that two investigations have been used on me, albeit one being fairly useless.

I'll get to this game and finish laying down my thoughts/reads tomorrow. Want one think answered though;

Shadoweh, how much have you and Quilford been hydradiscussing this game lately, where is he, why has he cut down on posting and what are your individual full reads.

[kortul]

4nx claim feels town, because at the end of the previous day he suspected Regfan, but at the beginning of the day he started defending him, and this change happened before Shinori even posted anything. If 4nx were scum finding conftown at night with his ability, i doubt his first reaction would be defending his previous scum read.

4nx

, if that other aspect of your role won't help us get a better read on living players, there's no need to explain anything. If it does, just remember that most likely you just joined the club of night targets for scum teams, and make a decision with that in mind.

@Shinori

, the unspoken question should be obvious, but just to be sure - you were speaking of 4nx earlier?

[Pandora]

Depressingly I haven't heard from Quilford since sometime in the end of September. >_> I'm a little miffed since I only joined because he wanted to hydra and it seemed like fun, but personal stuff catches up with you I guess. I mentioned it actually, and he's not getting prods because he's indefinitely V/LA. I could probably just take over the slot entirely but this little fluffy guy is so kyoot!

Investingating Regfan's name when Regfan's name was semi-cleared by Staeg seems like a waste but eh.

[Minimum]

It was a waste regardless.

[Minimum]

(More votes for Thor.)

[Magua]

@Pandora:

Do you think that Feysal knew his partners? If so, why did he choose DCLXVI over himself D1? If he didn't know his partners, why are you clearing Timeater as not-Stannis?

[Feysal]

Did you have fun trying to neighborize me N1, Feysal dear?

But I never did. Perhaps I should have?

Not that it would not be amusing to watch you fumble in the dark, but it gets boring after a while. Sure, one of you has shown a remarkable talent for lucky guesses, but with this many blind chickens pecking, I guess one was bound to find a grain. As a group you are completely lost though, so I guess I'll throw you a bone and see if anything interesting comes of it.

I have not seen him use traitors, but there is a game we both played in relevant to what you want to know.

For example, this one, can you give a link to this game?

Sorry, not this one. What would be the fun in asking riddles and then giving away the answer? Try Tierce. She was also in the game, though briefly.

Feysal - lol. Hey Feysal, who are you a Neighborizer to, little Freak?

Jeyne Poole.

22 posts left. Yeah, as if I was actually going to double my post count today.

[Shinori]

Sorry mah b.

Pandora was who i followed.
Investigative.

[Pandora]

Which I thought was obvious since you were questioning me, but hey if someone else wants to confess in a panic go ahead. :V Guilty consciences do funny things to people.
Not that it means much. My role is the opposite of yours and has instilled much swearing at Faraday for giving me something I had spent a mafia game making fun of just before this one started, as if karma thought giving me the most useless thing ever was funny. Though I guess at least I'm not a named townie like Staeg effectively was.

Magua: Don't traitors normally know who their partners are, but the partners don't know about the traitor? That's how it's worked in every game I've ever played with a traitor in it. Regardless of that Starbuck is town for being an easy target with bouts of suicide.

[Pandora]

Hold on I'm looking for all my shitty results.

Night 1: No one targetted Lyanna Stark
Night 2: Shadow1 was targetted by a kill! Man I'm good at this!
Night 3: Shinori was targetted by nothing! \o/
Night 4: Minimum was targetted by a 'other' action. What the fuck is an 'other' action?

Voyeur is the most terrible role ever and I have no idea how it could be productive, beyond being able to say hi I am out there!

[Tyene Sand]

Was aright about to come swinging down with a vote buuuut wrong role. That's decent, I guess.

"Other" action is probably something that doesn't fall under Investigative/Protective/Manipulative/Killing(/Support/Recruitment). The last two are dubious since not everyone marks Support (like Inventor) and Recruitment (Masonizers) roles as such. Could just be something random, or we have something like a potential Aegon traitor trying to figure Minimum out.


The game Feysal was referring to is Chrono Trigger Resurrection, kortul. He was a traitor, Faraday was part of an hydra with Regfan, CES was also playing and I replaced out during N1 due to getting too much setup info. All of us but Feysal were Town; I think that's everyone alive here who was in that game, but might be missing someone.

[Tyene Sand]

Regfan: While I understand your line of thought re: Pandora, look at this. It's pretty understandable that Quilford pretty much dropped from the hydra.

And it hit me last night that Regfan is all but conftown with that character name. Lots of relief here. I mean, I could see Cersei being damaging to the Lannister Alliance because lol Cersei, but it would still go heavily against flavor, especially when going through the previous games because Faraday et al have stuck quite thoroughly to the source material in terms of allegiances.

[Pandora]

I think it was Tammy actually. What else would you label Motivator as? I don't know why she'd be motivating Minimum but etc.
i am going to fall asleep now because yes

[Tyene Sand]

Support. But again, that's a rare label.

And I think I've seen Motivators give extra x-shots for following nights iirc, whoever it was that asked about it.

[Tierce]

Nnngh but he's really thinking about who he'd vengekill. That's Town-thinking, isn't it? I haven't really given it much consideration myself, because if lynched I would want to go through the whole game and analyze it anew, but thinking about it that frequently is still Town rationale, scum can't vengekill... argh.

Screw this, I'm going to sleep.

[Tyene Sand]

...Obviously that didn't belong here.

[kortul]

The game Feysal was referring to is Chrono Trigger Resurrection, kortul. He was a traitor, Faraday was part of an hydra with Regfan, CES was also playing and I replaced out during N1 due to getting too much setup info. All of us but Feysal were Town; I think that's everyone alive here who was in that game, but might be missing someone.

But i ISOed Feysal there during Day 4, he wasn't traitor, but some goon.

I went and rechecked the game again and found that there were 2 traitors there (not Feysal), but they knew their team, and team knew who were the traitors. Unless i am dead wrong, this isn't the case in our game.

And now we have a Voyeur claim. *sigh* I don't see how it can help us in any way.

[Tyene Sand]

>.> I didn't pay much attention to the game after I replaced out and got the details wrong. Yes, he was a goon, there were two traitors. The rest of the facts are true. In short, I think he's screwing with us and I wouldn't put much stock in the words of confscum because we're not even certain he's interested in unearthing Aegon at this stage. Let troll scum troll at will.

[Regfan]

With a JOAT and a Voyeur claim now out as well as two other claimed PR's and seven dead town PR's it's mass-claim time. There's literally no reason against it at this point, there's likely no other power out there and it'll allow us full organization and information to work out which claims are likely legitimate or not.

First instinct is that 4nxietys claim checks out; That being Mocking roleblocking DE N1 is plausible given her read on him and 4nxiety investigating me last night and then backing of his scum-read on me also checks out. Do want the other two nights abilities ect. outted, see nothing that really should be kept hidden there.

Also leaning towards Pandoras claim checking out but I don't know if that's more because no matter how many times I go over their ISO the D1 play strikes me as super town or because their actions role wise make sense. Either way not interested in lynching them at the moment. I can't work out what their claim is ever good for other than proving peoples fake-claims/fake-actions or confirming that something was done. All up seems like the useless role that Faraday would throw in and the setup seems to be lots of PR's, little power from each to create some balance and decrease swinginess.

---

Moving on from that I'm very confident in my Zdenek, Kortul, Tierce town-reads and Molla being town via role (See Maguas point about him still possibly being an Aegon-traitor but not worth hunting traitors at this point when there's still likely much more scum so he stays in the not-lynching pile) as well as Shinori (Who I continue to feel like his way around claiming initially is probably town, if anyone disagrees want to hear why though). Need to do that re-read on Thor fitting or not fitting with Aegon tonight, that'll be an absolute key thing for me to do*(to remind me to do it). With Pandora and 4nxiety added to that pile both for different things (At least until a mass-claim confirms likely existence of their roles or denies it) and PlumNacho going to be revealed at the end of the night.

That only leaves me with a few people to be where likelyscum is and that's inside of Magua, AV, Minimum, Timeater and Thor if above isn't right re;him. Even though I've already gone through them mostly with everything that's now been outted want to do one last look at them*. What I am fairly confident still about inside them is that AV(MoS)'s slot doesn't fit Aegon-Scum and Minimum doesn't fit Aegon-Scum either. That means hunting Aegon-Scum Magua, Timeater and Thor all fit as likely suspects, so re-reading their interactions is key*. The other end of the spectrum I was fairly sure that Timeater wasn't Stannis-Scum but the point that Magua makes about Feysals role likely not knowing partners and instead only being able to 'neighbourize partners' actually makes a significant amount of sense given what the flip says which makes Feysals push on the slot hardcore D1 completely null and void and in fact if anything makes his lack of annoyance and pushing through of the slot yesterday as somewhat more likely to be Stannis-Scum due to it.

So for all those who don't actually read wall posts and look for a tldr; Not interested in lynching any of Zdenek, Tierce, Molla, Shinori, Pandora, 4nxiety, Kortul and PlumNacho today. I need to look back at Thor but I'm thinking StannisScumPool: AV / Magua / Timeater / Minimum. And AegonScumPool: Timeater / Magua / Thor(?).

[Tyene Sand]

Fine with massclaim. Would like Regfan to define the order (or at least the start of the popcorn chain, if we are doing it that way), since I trust his claim result to be a better town-sign than hoping and praying to the Seven that PlumNacho aren't deceiving us all and flip scum at the end of the day.

[Tyene Sand]

Also Pandora's claim totally fits with Faraday's hatred of watchers. Followers and Voyeurs are excellent alternatives to provide to your town players when the mod doesn't want that tracked-to-/watched-at-the-night-kill result.

[4nxi3ty]

Do want the other two nights abilities ect. outted, see nothing that really should be kept hidden there.

I have a very good reason not to reveal, if I thought it could help figure out alignments I would've done so already.

wish you would reconsider zdenek and not clear him because of meta. It is not unheard of for people to adapt to their meta.

massclaim is a good idea.

I'm a bit conflicted about thor atm. I was convinced jal was scum yet some of my reads have been completely wrong this game, plus I find myself agreeing more with thor than zdenek during their 1v1. And then there is Plums Yo Mama's push on thor; On one hand it feels like they are just jumping on whatever they can, On the other they did lynch scum in feysal.

[Minimum]

but the point that Magua makes about Feysals role likely not knowing partners and instead only being able to 'neighbourize partners' actually makes a significant amount of sense given what the flip says

I said that first, just fyi.

Decide the order, Regfan.

[Regfan]

I'll decide on the order later tonight and it'll be up in 12 hours or so. If anyone wants to air some recommendations to it I'd love to hear them.

wish you would reconsider zdenek and not clear him because of meta. It is not unheard of for people to adapt to their meta.

If it were a minor change I'd understand but his scum and town play are very different and he's very much locked in his town meta here. It's not just that though but I'm finding his reads and theories genuine which means he actually believes in them to a super degree. I think his change of read on you from undecided to willing to lynch to not willing to lynch is more just him being unsure on his reads rather than him buddying up to you.