A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Minimum]

UNVOTE: AurorusVox

This is just to prevent a hammer. There's stuff I want to say (particularly in regards to Thor), and I don't have time to post anything substantial until tomorrow.

Also, Regfan, I understand that I make people a lot less paranoid than CES does, but I feel somewhat annoyed at being constantly pressured to be more active given the reasons behind me playing this game in the first place. I posted very actively at the end of Day 4 (which was only a week ago), and ended up missing a class because of it. I've been following along and giving my input to CES, but I would really, really rather not post too much--both because Mafia stresses me out too much, and because it will literally ruin my life. I'm not even joking. (Also, leaving aside when CES was in France, I wasn't significantly more active in Abarat, and you've seen me hydra with Faraday in games where I didn't post once. This isn't an alignment tell.)

[Eddard Stark]

Red Country by Joe Abercrombie is out tomorrow here!

Day 5, Votecount 10

Thor665 (1) - Pandora
Timeater (2) - Magua, kortul
Zdenek (2) - 4nx3ty, Thor665
Magua (1) - Timeater

AurorusVox (6) - Zdenek, Plums Yo Mamma, Tyene Sand, BBmolla, Regfan, Regfan

Not Voting (3):

Shinori, AurorusVox, Minimum

With 14 alive and 1 living dead it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline

: 25th October at 19:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-10-25 14:30:02)

[Timeater]

why are people voting av

and not someone like bbmolla or magua

[Timeater]

vote: bbmolla

iso:

by post 100: nothing but trollscumbbmolla filler-fluff
by post 300: nothing but trollscumbbmolla filler-fluff
by post 500: nothing but trollscumbbmolla filler-fluff

his first real post at #849 (800 posts into the game he finally makes a decent post...or is it?)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p4295464

bvoigt is town btw

kortul is useless scum

yea okay

[Thor665]

BBMolla's actions don't make sense as scum though unless you think he's scum from [whichever team it was he claimed knowledge of] and he's betting the other team doesn't kill him because they want to leave him alive to help hunt down [whichever team he's giving info on].

So basically he's scum banking that the other scum team won't have enough paranoia to shoot him at some point?
Meh.

[Thor665]

Oh, and while doing that is trying to prove his worth by helping to hunt down his own scumteam too.

[Timeater]

higher the troll factor the more likely he's mafia

[Timeater]

shouldnt he be dead?

[Thor665]

Should he be?

Enough people think he's, at the very least, confirmed [not the scumteam he reported on] which means he's a high priority shot for [other team unless they're dumb]. I don't see enough interest in lynching him to really think they expect him to be lynched, and I don't predict it will happen anytime soon - so really the most exciting thing to do is try to look at the kills and figure why they were worth more than killing BBMolla (and gauging by the quality of his play otherwise - it's not hard to guess) but he's really not a good lynch at least until we've wiped out the scum team he's clearly not a part of.

[Timeater]

So, I have an X-Shot Protect ability that I can only use on myself. I used it last night. Could answer for a missing kill. Not going to tell you how many shots it has.

Going to vote Bvoigt

lolwut

[Plums Yo Mamma]

timmy why are you going to make me lynch you?
i see it in the future and it is not pretty

[Timeater]

im obvtown as hell, mad???

clear bbmolla with a paragraph please thanks

magua too

[Timeater]

also sign your posts so i know when the smart head is speaking thanks again m8

[Timeater]

unvote: vote minimum

[kortul]

Busy at work these days, so while checking the game sometimes during the day, can devote time to analyzing anything only in the evenings. For obvious reasons will reassess AurorusVox slot first.

I find curious a sudden burst of activity from Timeater once AurorusVox went to L-1, especially after:

this is a good vote.

also wont rly be around to post this week but ill try

vote: magua

[AurorusVox]

Vote: Minimum

So in the cold light of day I think we can all agree that it's time to get off my wagon and do something else.

[Regfan]

Mina, really what I want from you are reads and stances with a small amount of reasoning behind it, I just need to be able to follow your thought process and understand where you're heads at because when you've shown as much in the past I've been able to read you correctly.

Timeater, the BB thing has been explained a number of times. The fact that he knew there was an Aegon faction and the make up of it means he can't be Stannis-Scum and if the Aegon faction is split up or there's traitors and killing mafia inside it I don't see him coming forward and revealing such information as a killing mafia, it draws a target on his back that he has no reason to place whatsoever. The only thing I buy with him is being a traitor and not interested in lynching someone when it's either town/traitor. As for Magua, it's meta and genuine scumhunting and a few other things. Explain your AV-Town-Read for me given everything though.

[kortul]

Finished reassessing. I had slight suspicions on MoS during day 1, but overall my read on him was neutral up to the beginning of Day 4. His later play consists of his artificial numbers thing and a strange replacement close to deadline, when he got some attention, which brought him back to scummy side.

I looked at my notes and checked again his ISO.

Spoiler: Things is don't like about MoS Day 1 play

There are several things wrong with this statement:

1) You're assuming that if I get chosen I'll have paid enough attention to D1 to be able to make an informed decision about who to vig.
2) You've clearly never seen me with a vig role. I'm awful at it, usually because I spend so much time second-guessing myself inside my head.

Lazy_bad_vig damage control theme.

What the hell happened while I was gone?

Where did this DCLX wagon come from? I don't really understand why he's being wagoned here.
<...>

Unchoose, Choose: Feysal

He doesn't say that wagon is bad, reasons are awful or that DCL is town, but tries to push the counterwagon.

And i don' like him laying responsibility on Mina for his vote switches at the end of day 1 (1448, 1486, 1514).

His cryptic defence of Feysal also looks suspicious (even though Feysal is traitor, he was Neighborizer and this was Day 4 already).

The Feysal I know is much more active and has a LOT of input...that said, I think he's town cuz *reasons*.

AurorusVox had not a single town tell that i can see. He droped his suspicions from Timeater because "if Timeaster had a fakeclaim, he wouldn't have fucked up his claim like he did" (ie fakeclaim PMs are somehow superior to town PMs?). His explanation behind Feysal vote was "because he is the biggest wagon". His sweep through RVS and the reasons for suspicion on Salamence are on the same level.

As a result, i am leaning scum on this slot, and this read is more strong than on Timeater. There's strange thing though, i think that Timeater is more likely to be Aegon scum, and AurorusVox is more likely to be Stannis scum, so i don't understand sudden activity from Timeater. Would like to hear his read and explanation on AV.

Will wait for the thoughts Minimum wanted to share, hopefully the answer from Timeater, and then switch my vote to AurorusVox. Meanwhile will continue reassessing my non-town reads.

[Eddard Stark]

Zdenek has been prodded

[Magua]

Flavor talk about Jeyne Poole is crap and everyone involved in it (AurorusVox, Thor665) is bad and should feel bad. Well, AV should feel bad for a lot of reasons having to do with the last few pages, but whatev.

Benmage died because he was obvtown. That's likely all there is to it. Now we already have a lot of PR's claimed and clears, scum already have targets for at night, how you're not understanding that I don't get. By mass-claiming we're making this more information shared, more information to get reads of. Better chance of lynching scum. I still want mass-claim and you've got one post to convince me otherwise or else I'll either start a popcorn of a specified claiming order of. Also not speaking of claims, who else is scum other than Timeater?

On what planet was Benmage obvtown?

For scum targets, the part that I'm not seeing how *you* don't get is that the scum have targets, but they have uncertainty about what other targets may be available. Look at Shinori. He's a PR. He's way more obvtown than Benmage ever was. Yet, scum are killing other people (coughcoughBenmagecough) in preference to him. $20 says that that's because scum are trying to hit a bigger threat.

You massclaim, you remove all that guesswork out of whether scum should be shooting the claimed PRs or aiming for an unclaimed one.

---------

As for who is scum: working under the assumption that there's (at least) four more scum left:

Timeater is scum.

AurorusVox is either scum or a massive town hindrance. Either way needs to go. The entirety of his saporerint vote and the ensuing crapfest after that reads as entirely fake, and we're past the point where I really care about "I'm gonna do something incredibly stupid and see who calls me scummy for it and then call them scum" type deals.

Also, hate hate hate "Why would I lie about this?" in 3186.

Feeling more and more that BBmolla is scum. I agree with your defense that "Stannis wouldn't have that information," I disagree with "Aegon wouldn't out that information." If BBmolla is a traitor, outting that information makes *perfect* sense. Of course, him being a possible traitor but not really a possible mafia makes me not really care about lynching him at this point.

Don't have a good read on a fourth. Probably kortul via PoE more than actual scumminess. I'm developing more of a townread on Thor and Tierce from their posting toDay versus yesterDay.

[Minimum]

Benmage was obvtown enough and not getting lynched. Scum might have easily disagreed as to how town he looked and decided they definitely wanted him gone if he was opposingscum too. It's not that weird a kill.

Regfan, just read me? We've hydraed together as scum; that should surely let you determine my alignment.

[Shinori]

I could have sworn I'd posted.

I'm fine with a lynch on Aurorus.

[Zdenek]

I like Kortul's theory that the missing kill N1 was the Aegon factions.

One thing we should be careful about is that I believe there were Name-cop Godfather's in ACoK, so name-cop investigations aren't auto-clears, but I think that if name copping is restricted to the joat, then it is very likely there aren't any of those in this game.

I have no idea how bbmolla's claim clears him. He could easily be aegon scum, making sure that the other groups knows they are separated, and his soft claim of being important and not wanting to be nightkilled are not particularly townie either. I would not vote him today because there are several better lynches, but there's no way I'd write him off as town.

You think he's scum who softclaimed a PR and that he was important as a trick to outwit the other scumteam somehow?
I don't get how that works.

BBMolla's actions don't make sense as scum though unless you think he's scum from [whichever team it was he claimed knowledge of] and he's betting the other team doesn't kill him because they want to leave him alive to help hunt down [whichever team he's giving info on].

So basically he's scum banking that the other scum team won't have enough paranoia to shoot him at some point?
Meh.

Should he be?

Enough people think he's, at the very least, confirmed [not the scumteam he reported on] which means he's a high priority shot for [other team unless they're dumb]. I don't see enough interest in lynching him to really think they expect him to be lynched, and I don't predict it will happen anytime soon - so really the most exciting thing to do is try to look at the kills and figure why they were worth more than killing BBMolla (and gauging by the quality of his play otherwise - it's not hard to guess) but he's really not a good lynch at least until we've wiped out the scum team he's clearly not a part of.

Lawlz.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zdenek

More lawlz.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: AV

First a shitty Minimum vote that you backtracked from and now this?

Is this the post you were referring to with regards to MockingJaye?

It was 2470.

why AVox instead of Thor, he had more support at the time?

I think MoS was scummier and AVox has done nothing to change that opinion.

see no reason to fight an AV lynch, but:

Anxiety is an acceptable lynch, primarily because of MockingJaye's 1274.

Secondly, it had nothing to do with you thinking that I am town. The fact that you are suggesting that it is means that you haven't actually read my posts, where I clearly state that MockingJaye actually looks pretty good when it comes to having clearly stated suspicions.

his original reason for being okay with my lynch was mjaye posted something scummy yet now he is saying he changed his mind because mjaye's posting looked good. It doesn't add up. If I die tonight, hopefully someone will follow up on this tommorow.

Holy fuck. I don't have to think that everything that comes out of a players mouth is townie to have an overall town read on the slot.

[BBmolla]

post

I'd be trying more if I was scum.

[Tyene Sand]

As someone who has replaced into a scum slot you flaked out of, that is a boldfaced lie, BB.