A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[AurorusVox]

ARE YOU CLAIMING STANNIS?

If you say so.

Look, from my PoV, for you to be town, at most one other player in the game can also be town. And while everyone else makes me feel

bad

about suspecting them, you've been playing like scum since you replaced into the game. So I need to see a lot from you to get me to believe that you're the townie and not people like Pandora and kortul.

Question: where did the 66% number come from?

Not Stannis either. Pandora is scum. What 66% number?

[Minimum]

Do you have selective memory?

I think lynch should be between [Kortul/Pandora/Zdenek]. Even with Minimum as an outsider given the wonky push on my slot, we still have 66% chance to hit scum there (I'm clearing Magua because he's obvobvTown), and tbh I think we're probably looking at the scumteams with all three there anyway.

[Minimum]

All right. When I started looking at partnerships yesterday, I'd noticed this, but wasn't sure if I should come forward or slowplay it. But after some discussion, we've decided there's no point in waiting.

Magua...oh, Magua. I feel kind of bad for you for doing this. Because you've played really well...but

ouch

. Just

ouch

. I can imagine right now what my reaction would be in your shoes, and it would not be pretty.

I have two questions for you:

1) When you said that you'd have played the same way as scum

except

you would have killed Regfan (and when you said you would have killed kortul last night)...that was the truth to the letter, wasn't it? Because you're playing EXACTLY like you would as scum...but you're not part of the main alliance, and so you

can't

kill?

2) On a scale from 1 to 10, how much do you

hate

ABR right now:

I have landed.

Scum may tremble.

I feel like Aegon landing in Westeros at page 45, but he's not part of the great Alliance.

Shit I just realized I forgot to take something out of my notes

So apparently I recieved a letter from someone, it says that Aegon Targaryen's forces are split up so that some do not know who the others are. After some extensive research(AKA, googling Aegon Targaryen) I've come to the conclusion this is probably good knowledge for the town to know because they look like bad guys.

[Minimum]

(By the way, this says something sad about mafiascum. Someone can outright

claim scum

on Day One of a twenty-eight-player large game, and not a single person will notice until the last day of the game.)

[Pandora]

Right now it seems like people are deciding the leftover scum via process of elimination on their townreads. I can actually explain the 66% number. If Avox (himself) = town and he thinks Magua is 100% town, there are only four people left and presumably three scum to go between them. Two out of three if you're scum, three out of three if you're not, from his perspective. Of course this is bad math becaue

he's scum

because

he's stupid and wrong

because it's based on premature elimination, a terrible mafia condition.

At this moment my 'town pics' as it were are Minimum and kortul. Ignoring role shenanigans because they are both unprovable, and because as people keep forgetting there are at least three other reasons a kill could have not happened Night 1, Avox has been lurkalicious, Zdeken is neighbourizing Stannis scum, and Magua is scum because there's no one left. Can we just throw out everyone's top 3 and see where a lynch is going to end up going?

Me: Zdenik, Avox, Magua

Cut by Lulz

[Minimum]

By the way, Shadoweh, have you spoken at all to Quilford recently? Has he done any of the posting?

[Eddard Stark]

Day 8, Votecount 3

Not Voting (6):

Minimum, kortul, Magua, Zdenek, AurorusVox, Pandora

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: 13th December at 1:00am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-12-12 21:00:00)

[Zdenek]

Mod: can we get a deadline extension because there's no way that I am going to be able to give this game the necessary attention in the next 6 days.

[Eddard Stark]

The 14 days granted seem adequate time, given there was no replacements or delays this day phase.

[Zdenek]

2. DCLXVI was being bussed by the entirety of his team D1 in a Large Theme

Considering that in exchange the Stannis faction picks up a NK and town-cred, this would actually not surprise me at all.

Makes a lot more sense as some sort of claim gambit.

What sort of claim gambit are you thinking of?

I'm clearing Magua because he's obvobvTown)

Why?

Minimum, I still want you to tell me where you are getting you meta on Pine lurking/lurking to the point of replacement as scum.

Zdeken is neighbourizing Stannis scum

This is just insane.

[Pandora]

I have been doing all of the posting. I think I said awhile back that I could dehydra but I really love this furry little guy. He hasn't posted in our QT since.. awhile ago. <_< Sorry but you'll have to settle for 100% pure refreshing spring Shadoweh.

Are you making fun of my spelling? I think I was still drunk when I wrote that. I kind of still have a hangover now <.< You know what would be cool is if you did the thing I asked you to do so we can lynch you faster.

[Zdenek]

I have been doing all of the posting. I think I said awhile back that I could dehydra but I really love this furry little guy. He hasn't posted in our QT since.. awhile ago. <_< Sorry but you'll have to settle for 100% pure refreshing spring Shadoweh.

Are you making fun of my spelling? I think I was still drunk when I wrote that. I kind of still have a hangover now <.< You know what would be cool is if you did the thing I asked you to do so we can lynch you faster.

I'm not making fun of your spelling. The idea that I am neighborizing Stannis scum is insane - specifically the idea that I would have claimed Jayne Poole after Feysal who was going to flip Stannis specific neighborizer, neighborized me is crazy, because of possible night actions.

I've been clear about my top three Minimum, Magua and Kortul.

[Magua]

Ffs.

[Magua]

1) When you said that you'd have played the same way as scum

except

you would have killed Regfan (and when you said you would have killed kortul last night)...that was the truth to the letter, wasn't it? Because you're playing EXACTLY like you would as scum...but you're not part of the main alliance, and so you

can't

kill?

Regfan can read me like a book. See Strategy Mafia. It's brutal when I'm scum. But here I'm town and if you can't (or, I suppose, won't) trust anything else about me, then you should trust Reg's read on me. Because I only have the slightest suspicion that you will look at D6 and be like "lolMaguapowerbussed4nxi3ty"

Also, and this is probably key, you can't *actually* think be town and think that I'm a non-killing Aegon, because if you did, game would be (at least) 2:2:2.

2) On a scale from 1 to 10, how much do you

hate

ABR right now:

Depends on what I should hate him for. If it's for posting

a joke

useless shit before replacing out that gives you ammunition to attack, I hate him quite a bit. If it's for claiming scum, then I can't hate him at all because that's not what he did. See also Tierce and "traitorous scum" earlier in this game.

What sort of claim gambit are you thinking of?

Something to try and confirm your role as Jeyne Pool. It's just boggling that Feysal-flipped-scum would say "I can neighborize Jeyne Poole!" and you appear and say, for no reason that I can see, "I'm Jeyne Poole!" and then Feysal says *nothing else* afterwards even though he'd been counting his posts up until that point. Unsure of what mechanics might prompt you to do that, but the behavior from both you and him on that is bizarre.

---

Thor's going to be insufferable if it turns out Zdenek is scum. Still:
VOTE: Zdenek

[Zdenek]

Feysal was lying.
Zdenek was being honest.
This is very sad.

A haiku for ADWD.

The two people I think are town, think that I am scum, and we don't all agree on a single read. This should mean that I am wrong about something, but I feel like Regfan and Plumamma would turn over in their graves if I ever voted for Pandora, and I agree with Regan's reasons for thinking that Pandora is town from earlier. AVox/MoS make sense as scum from a play perspective, except for a couple of points, his claim and how it came out, and I'm hesitant to believe that town has no protective role.

I don't see the difference in Kortul's play in this game and MoI's Dresden Files game that Minimum sees.
Magua calling me town all game, and switching because of is Feysal thing now, when it happened so long ago is bizarre.

V/LA until Monday

[Magua]

I'm not voting you because of the Feysal thing. I'm voting you because I literally cannot conceive of a 2-man Stannis team that does not contain you.

[kortul]

@Minimum, ABR posts are interesting, but Magua not being able to shoot makes sense only if 2 Aegon are still alive, since we had 2 night kills after 4nx lynch.

Exam tomorrow, wish me luck.

[Minimum]

The nightkill thing is mostly Mina being silly (but it seems plausible enough that Magua only gained control over the nightkill Night 6 after Anxiety was lynched).

[Pandora]

Zdenek: I don't think there's a person alive who thinks Magua is town besides AVox so etc. Being the most likely Aegon makes him not a good lynch I guess? (We could just point and let it take care of (ry) Fine I guess it would be better to lynch someone too.

[Minimum]

You okay with lynching AV, you Canadian furling?

[AurorusVox]

Magua replaced ABR who softclaimed Aegon early on?
That kinda takes all the shine off it. Magua's response isn't exactly inspiring.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 8, Votecount 4

Zdenek (1) - Magua

Not Voting (5):

Minimum, kortul, Zdenek, AurorusVox, Pandora

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: 13th December at 1:00am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-12-12 21:00:00)

V/la's have been noted.

[AurorusVox]

@mod, Magua's vote is on Zdenek...right?

[kortul]

Ok, i am back from studying. Finally my mind can focus on something else. Since i already reread everyone at least twice on the previous days, doing this again would be hardly productive for me, so i will try to look over weekend for possible pairs now. Not sure if anything will come from this, since in the game that long there are lots of interactions, and they are open for interpretation, but that's better than just guessing. I also have some fleeting ideas at the back of my mind, maybe that will finally come to surface during the research.

@Pandora, right now my picks would be AV, Magua, Zdenek. That may change after the research, but not radically - i already thought about the picture where both you and Minimum are scum, and that doesn't fit.

[Eddard Stark]

@mod, Magua's vote is on Zdenek...right?

This is what happens when there's no Stark in Winterfell. Fixed