Mini Normal 1460 - Normalville Mafia (GAME OVER)

[Slandaar]

WIFOM much?

Nope.

Interest in ones role is related to their engagement in the game; where is the WIFOM?

It would be cool if this would actually turn out to be a crumb later on in the game

What is the purpose of this?

The action:

See this game/post. Yes, the number has gone down, but it's reliable enough as a starting point.

So, you have one link to one scum using RQS and you think this makes it a scumtell?

I see.

Random votes start wagons and get reactions from those under pressure, sets up association, sparks discussion about the game. Banter doesn't do any of that.

Nice bland explanation when we are talking about the votes in this game.

What pressure and reactions are you going to achieve when everyone knows the votes are random?

The point of RVS is to escalate discussion RQS does the same thing. Afterall my questions clearly sparked discussion and got reactions.

So, what useful information did you get from the random votes in this thread?

How is this not the scummiest thing you've ever heard?

Its theory, bad theory but its theory.

[Grimgroove]

My questions have a point to them being that favourite alignment and to a lesser extent role can give insight into how engaged with the game you should expect that person to be if they are town (and if they are scum).

WIFOM much?[/quote]

The WIFOM is here in that the question can be answered strategically. Scum planning to be active could say they prefer to be some town-aligned role, thus creating the natural association in your head that their high activity means they're town. Scum planning to be inactive or knowing that they generally are could do the opposite.

Or people could just be honest, like me. But even then there's not much to be learned from it.

I find the added value of your RQS only limited compared to some simple RVS'ing, but I don't find it scummy either. I don't understand the mini-wagon behind your name. I'd prefer more votes on Future.

[Grimgroove]

Screwed up the quotes there. The quote assigned to be was actually a quote from Slandaar.

[Slandaar]

I feel like being nice

Just because I voted no lynch doesn't mean that I'm necessarily new to the game, FYI.

Don't take offense over it. Being new isn't a bad thing; it doesn't mean you are bad it just means you probably won't understand all the theory etc.

A mislynch on d1 is NOT better, IN MY OPINION, because I much rather, as I said, analyze the kill's info based on day behaviour that analyzing day behaviour

OK the key to knowing if you should lynch or nolynch on D1 is the number of players in the game.

In mini normals always assume one scumteam, one scum team one kill per night so;

13->12 on N1 so D2 12 people alive; assume no vig etc and this leads us to a situation where we have to nolynch AGAIN later down the line this means we have lost a lynch over where we would have been if we had just lynched Day 1. Therefore lynching D1 is infinitely better than Nolynch in 13man game.

Do the full math if you don't understand why there is a lost lynch; losing a lynch is very very bad for town.

In a game with 12 players; its more debatable. Theoretically nolynching there D1 gives the PR's an extra night while making the odds as low as possible for scum to shoot the PR's N1. This means that you have more information for the first lynch which would be on D2. Now the scum will mostly kill the stronger townies on the N1 this actually will balance the information gain from PR's slightly. The information gained from NK analysis is well... its actually GOOD when you have a lot of meta on everyone in the game but in a game with this playerlist (-1)? wouldn't do much at all. Then there is the fact you can lynch D1, Nolynch D2 and be in a similar situation but I have had enough explaining now as this is a 13p so this is less relevant.

[Grimgroove]

How does having an even number of players make us lose a lynch-opportunity? I don't get it.

[Slandaar]

Both scenarios; 3 scum no scum lynches Bolded show mislynches.
Lynch D1;
13->

11

->

9

->

7

-> scum win

mislynched 3 times lost on 4th

Nolynch D1;
13->12->

10

->

8

->scum win
(you can nolynch a 2nd time here with no detrimental effect)

mislynched twice lost on 3rd.

This is very basic theory.

[BP]

First of all, thanks. Really. That *was* nice. However, I understand all that. I do. That's all relative, tho, given that you're taking it as granted that the info from N1 would be completely useless, which I don't think to be the case. Ever. After the reactions from the RVS it is infinitely better (IMO, again) to analyze the info from the N1 kill choice than to rather lynch randomly on Day 1. Cuz that's what we'll be doing, unless Baezu is the most obvious scummyman on the website, and his scummates are not smarter than him. As I've said, I've played scum a couple o'times and L1 is most often a mislynch that leads nowhere, because scummies will know how to cover it up by killing off the right player. See what I mean?

Day 1 -> Mislynch :: Night 1 -> Scummies will cover it up pretty well given the Day 1 BW's and whatnot, which leads to Day 2 -> Mislynch again, which leads to Night 2 -> ANOTHER dead townie. HOPEFULLY, no important informative PR's will be killed and they'll have enough tells to start pointing fingers at actual scumpeople in a way that puts the rest of the Townies behind the bandwagon.

This is how things mostly went off-site. I'm not very sure about this one in specific, but I rather not play with these odds. Ofc, what's above is not written in stone, but odds point to that. No lynch on Day 1 is thus better not only because it obviously guarantees no mislynch, and cleans up the info from Night 1 kill choice info.

ANYWAYS, this is the reasoning behind my no-lynch theory. You're all welcome to disagree.

Also, I don't necessarily play this way. I still want to wait for a few days and see what the player's are all about. If I find a good-enough scum-scented playa, I'll vote to lynch him no problem.

[BP]

What is, is I WOULD like to know the other player's response to these questions that arose. Yes?

Where you at, homies?

[thegooner]

I like mafia the best. It presents a challenge that feels very rewarding when you pull off a win.

Favorite role is either mafia goon or vanilla townsperson. I like being the pawn that gets moved around the board, and sometimes takes down the queen.

VOTE: Elyse

[Grimgroove]

I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.

[Red Dragon]

Nice bland explanation when we are talking about the votes in this game.

What pressure and reactions are you going to achieve when everyone knows the votes are random?

The point of RVS is to escalate discussion RQS does the same thing. Afterall my questions clearly sparked discussion and got reactions.

So, what useful information did you get from the random votes in this thread?

easy, look how bp is squirming. You don't get that from asking, "what uis your favorite role" Why? Because that question can simply be answered: "town, doc"

more later but:

vote: bp

[thegooner]

I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.

I disagree wholeheartedly. During the night, the mafia have to act together. They choose as a team which player's interactions get analyzed. If someone is fingering the entire mafia team, they may leave them alive over the player that has fingered all civs to try and get mislynches. They may do the opposite for supreme WIFOM. During the day, mafia can deliberately not interact or choose to interact in certain ways to deceive. If a mafia gets pegged, then they can dig to keep suspicion away from any teammates. A night kill has no deception; that player is killed. No matter what, that player is getting analyzed the next day, and the lynch that follows generally reveals why mafia made that night hit.

UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: Grimgroove

My vote for Elyse was because I didn't realize the RVS had ended.

[Grimgroove]

I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.

I disagree wholeheartedly. During the night, the mafia have to act together. They choose as a team which player's interactions get analyzed.

If someone is fingering the entire mafia team, they may leave them alive over the player that has fingered all civs to try and get mislynches. They may do the opposite for supreme WIFOM.

During the day, mafia can deliberately not interact or choose to interact in certain ways to deceive. If a mafia gets pegged, then they can dig to keep suspicion away from any teammates. A night kill has no deception; that player is killed. No matter what, that player is getting analyzed the next day, and the lynch that follows generally reveals why mafia made that night hit.

UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: Grimgroove

My vote for Elyse was because I didn't realize the RVS had ended.

Seeing how you already proved my point in your own exposé, I don't need to delve into it much further. The thing in bold is exactly what I was referring to.
After a NK, all we know is what the role was of the person who died. This gives us one piece of information: what that person has been saying in the topic was genuine.
Barring a power role (in the case of a N1 kill we can, because the killed player wouldn't have had the chance to use their power, essesntially making him a VT during this initial phase just as much as the rest of us), this doesn't give us any information at all about the factual validity of what he's been saying, only that it was with good intentions.
All the other conclusions you'd make based on NK's would indeed, as you yourself so eloquently put it, be WIFOM.

Also, please explain how this disagreement warrants such a bad, bad vote.

[BP]

I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.

I disagree wholeheartedly. During the night, the mafia have to act together. They choose as a team which player's interactions get analyzed. If someone is fingering the entire mafia team, they may leave them alive over the player that has fingered all civs to try and get mislynches. They may do the opposite for supreme WIFOM. During the day, mafia can deliberately not interact or choose to interact in certain ways to deceive. If a mafia gets pegged, then they can dig to keep suspicion away from any teammates. A night kill has no deception; that player is killed. No matter what, that player is getting analyzed the next day, and the lynch that follows generally reveals why mafia made that night hit.

Thank you.

Plus, if you don't lynch Day 1, what will be analyzed is why mafia killed that specific type of player, and what types of players would target those ones.

[BP]

easy, look how bp is squirming. You don't get that from asking, "what uis your favorite role" Why? Because that question can simply be answered: "town, doc"

Care to make this squirming a bit more specific?

[chernobylcitybus]

Nice bland explanation when we are talking about the votes in this game.

What pressure and reactions are you going to achieve when everyone knows the votes are random?

The point of RVS is to escalate discussion RQS does the same thing. Afterall my questions clearly sparked discussion and got reactions.

So, what useful information did you get from the random votes in this thread?

easy, look how bp is squirming. You don't get that from asking, "what uis your favorite role" Why? Because that question can simply be answered: "town, doc"

more later but:

vote: bp

VOTE: Red Dragon
Why is BP scum? Is it because of the "squirming"?
I wait with bated breath for the "more later"

[Red Dragon]

How does having an even number of players make us lose a lynch-opportunity? I don't get it.

Because we get to lylo 1 day quicker. You can write out the two scenarios on a piece of paper like this:

Without lynch:
n1: 13
d2: 12 lynch
n2: 11
d3: 10 lynch
n3: 9
d4: 9 lynch
n5: 7
d6: lylo
with:
d1: 13 lynch
n1: 12
d2: 11 lynch
n3: 10
d3: 9 lynch
n4: 8
d4: 7 lynch
n5: 6

we gain a lynch by doing it d1.

Both scenarios; 3 scum no scum lynches Bolded show mislynches.
Lynch D1;
13->

11

->

9

->

7

-> scum win

mislynched 3 times lost on 4th

Nolynch D1;
13->12->

10

->

8

->scum win
(you can nolynch a 2nd time here with no detrimental effect)

mislynched twice lost on 3rd.

This is very basic theory.

and the ninja... But I agree we have ot lynch someone today. Anyone who says otherwise is anti-town.

to analyze the info from the N1 kill choice than to rather lynch randomly on Day 1. Cuz that's what we'll be doing,

Fatal assumption. We do not lynch off of random. You are assuming that talking is meaningless. Your assumption is that the only thing that matters are votes and night actions. That is simply not the case... So here is the question: Do scum tells, in any way, exist?

L1 is most often a mislynch that leads nowhere, because scummies will know how to cover it up by killing off the right player.

Fatal assumption number 2: Mislynches give us nothing. Do association tells mean anything? Does decreasing the lynch pool and thus GAINING a chance mean anything?

This is how things mostly went off-site.

Epic mafia tard confirmed.

What is, is I WOULD like to know the other player's response to these questions that arose. Yes?

you are ignorant of basic mafia theory.

I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.

I disagree wholeheartedly. During the night, the mafia have to act together. They choose as a team which player's interactions get analyzed. If someone is fingering the entire mafia team, they may leave them alive over the player that has fingered all civs to try and get mislynches. They may do the opposite for supreme WIFOM. During the day, mafia can deliberately not interact or choose to interact in certain ways to deceive. If a mafia gets pegged, then they can dig to keep suspicion away from any teammates.

In a 100% ideal world I would agree with this. If, theoretically, the mafia played perfectly this would be 100% true. Unfortunately that is not the case. However, you are assuming that scum never make mistakes and that scum won't counter claim or try to deceive us with fake night actions. You underestimate the wifom that the scum can put on us with their night actions... pleased don't tell me you are an em tard too.

Plus, if you don't lynch Day 1, what will be analyzed is why mafia killed that specific type of player, and what types of players would target those ones.

and we can do that d2 with two flips. We can even do it better because we have a basis for figuring out who would kill x with the flip.


I think bp is scum because I find it very, very hard to believe that a town player, when shown with mathematical facts, would ever decided to play sub optimally. Deciding not to lynch d1 is certainly something that scum would want to do. A town player would not want to take away a lynch opportunity, and thus it can be concluded that BP is not playing with the town in mind. I do not know if BP is scum, but I know for a fact he is NOT town. Actually his play would make a lot of sense from an sk perspective...

[Red Dragon]

yeah, I know I contradicted my self in the last paragraph, but the word "scum" has been so engrained that it is hard not to use it when talking about not towns.

[Darthe]

^ I actually find it difficult to see town using the word scummy as justification for thoughts and attitudes displayed at any given time since there really are no stnadards, but in this instance I think your misuse is actually telling of a town alignment.

[BP]

As I said, you're all welcome to disagree. I stand my ground: until I see something really telling, I'll vote no-lynch. It won't prevent you from lynching someone either way.

[Future]

I think bp is scum because I find it very, very hard to believe that a town player, when shown with mathematical facts, would ever decided to play sub optimally. Deciding not to lynch d1 is certainly something that scum would want to do. A town player would not want to take away a lynch opportunity, and thus it can be concluded that BP is not playing with the town in mind. I do not know if BP is scum, but I know for a fact he is NOT town. Actually his play would make a lot of sense from an sk perspective...

I'm torn. While I mentioned that gut off-ness about BP's posts, I completely disagree with Red Dragon and Baezu here. I really, really don't think BP's wanting to NL is indicative of his alignment either way; I haven't gone through his other games (if he has any) but his convictions here make it seem like an idea he stands by as town and one he would present as part of a town meta if he was scum. I don't think being difficult regarding mathematical logic is a scumtell. In fact, I'd expect scum to be even more flip-floppy than town in this case; scum loves to appease the town.

Another thing scum love to do is go after easy lynches, especially with new(ish) players like BP who do something like he's doing right now. Like Grimgroove said, Baezu/Red Dragon here are scummier than BP are. Baezu more than Dragon at this point for Post 45. "We need to lynch this now" is scummy as hell.

UNVOTE: BP
VOTE: Baezu

P.S. Dragon, no need to be mean, bro.

[Future]

I think bp is scum because I find it very, very hard to believe that a town player, when shown with mathematical facts, would ever decided to play sub optimally. Deciding not to lynch d1 is certainly something that scum would want to do. A town player would not want to take away a lynch opportunity, and thus it can be concluded that BP is not playing with the town in mind. I do not know if BP is scum, but I know for a fact he is NOT town. Actually his play would make a lot of sense from an sk perspective...

I'm torn. While I mentioned that gut off-ness about BP's posts, I completely disagree with Red Dragon and Baezu here. I really, really don't think BP's wanting to NL is indicative of his alignment either way; I haven't gone through his other games (if he has any) but his convictions here make it seem like an idea he stands by as town and one he would present as part of a town meta if he was scum. I don't think being difficult regarding mathematical logic is a scumtell. In fact, I'd expect scum to be even more flip-floppy than town in this case; scum loves to appease the town.

Another thing scum love to do is go after easy lynches, especially with new(ish) players like BP who do something like he's doing right now. Like Grimgroove said, Baezu/Red Dragon here are scummier than BP are. Baezu more than Dragon at this point for Post 45. "We need to lynch this now" is scummy as hell.

UNVOTE: BP
VOTE: Baezu

P.S. Dragon, no need to be mean, bro.

[Future]

(mod, feel free to erase that double post)

[Baezu]

@ grim - so first you're convinced I'm town and you want to prove me wrong:

Baezu is town. Only town is so eager to put out scumreads this early in the game, half expecting/hoping they would be right in order to boast with them at the end of the game.
However, Baezu is wrong and will not be boasting for at least 50% of her early reads.

Then you think I'm scum for jumping on easy bait:

The way Baezu jumps on this "easy" bait I find scummier than publicly daring to take a stance you'll know very few people will agree with.

Also, you've been defending BP

Did you notice his join date under the avatar?

This join date leads me to believe he knows what he's doing through defending this No D1-lynch business. I haven't been in many games myself so far on this site, but in each and every one of them the general agreement was the thing that Baezu was explaining, and everyone disagreeing came under heavy scrutiny. I'll have to do a meta on BP but something tells me he knew he'd be getting reactions t§o this no-lynch-vote along the lines of the reactions he's getting now.

I'm even more sure of my initial assessment: BP/GRIMGROOVE = scum team!!!

[Baezu]

- If you want reactions to see the smoke comin' out of the scumhole, why lynch me right away? Why not wait a little longer, say two weeks?
- Do you think mafia loyalties would be made explicit by them in day 1 in such a way as to tell us who's who? If not, do you still think a mislynch is better that a no-lynch?

1. Initially it was an RVS but the longer it's progressed the more I'm convinced my hunch was right. Why would we need to wait to lynch you? You're being overly defensive, you're not scumhunting and you're not really helping town. I don't see any problem with lynching you early.

2. I stand by my belief that a ML is better than a NL regardless of how long it's been like I said before bc of bw, convos, etc.