In post 54, Grimgroove wrote:How does having an even number of players make us lose a lynch-opportunity? I don't get it.
Because we get to lylo 1 day quicker. You can write out the two scenarios on a piece of paper like this:
Without lynch:
n1: 13
d2: 12 lynch
n2: 11
d3: 10 lynch
n3: 9
d4: 9 lynch
n5: 7
d6: lylo
with:
d1: 13 lynch
n1: 12
d2: 11 lynch
n3: 10
d3: 9 lynch
n4: 8
d4: 7 lynch
n5: 6
we gain a lynch by doing it d1.
In post 55, Slandaar wrote:Both scenarios; 3 scum no scum lynches Bolded show mislynches.
Lynch D1;
13->
11
->
9
->
7
-> scum win
mislynched 3 times lost on 4th
Nolynch D1;
13->12->
10
->
8
->scum win
(you can nolynch a 2nd time here with no detrimental effect)
mislynched twice lost on 3rd.
This is very basic theory.
and the ninja... But I agree we have ot lynch someone today. Anyone who says otherwise is anti-town.
In post 56, BP wrote: to analyze the info from the N1 kill choice than to rather lynch randomly on Day 1. Cuz that's what we'll be doing,
Fatal assumption. We do not lynch off of random. You are assuming that talking is meaningless. Your assumption is that the only thing that matters are votes and night actions. That is simply not the case... So here is the question: Do scum tells, in any way, exist?
In post 56, BP wrote: L1 is most often a mislynch that leads nowhere, because scummies will know how to cover it up by killing off the right player.
Fatal assumption number 2: Mislynches give us nothing. Do association tells mean anything? Does decreasing the lynch pool and thus GAINING a chance mean anything?
In post 56, BP wrote:
This is how things mostly went off-site.
Epic mafia tard confirmed.
In post 57, BP wrote:What is, is I WOULD like to know the other player's response to these questions that arose. Yes?
you are ignorant of basic mafia theory.
In post 61, thegooner wrote: In post 59, Grimgroove wrote:I personally think daytime activity (votes, posts, hammers, ...) are much easier to analyse than night kill-decisions.
I disagree wholeheartedly. During the night, the mafia have to act together. They choose as a team which player's interactions get analyzed. If someone is fingering the entire mafia team, they may leave them alive over the player that has fingered all civs to try and get mislynches. They may do the opposite for supreme WIFOM. During the day, mafia can deliberately not interact or choose to interact in certain ways to deceive. If a mafia gets pegged, then they can dig to keep suspicion away from any teammates.
In a 100% ideal world I would agree with this. If, theoretically, the mafia played perfectly this would be 100% true. Unfortunately that is not the case. However, you are assuming that scum never make mistakes and that scum won't counter claim or try to deceive us with fake night actions. You underestimate the wifom that the scum can put on us with their night actions... pleased don't tell me you are an em tard too.
In post 63, BP wrote:
Plus, if you don't lynch Day 1, what will be analyzed is why mafia killed that specific type of player, and what types of players would target those ones.
and we can do that d2 with two flips. We can even do it better because we have a basis for figuring out who would kill x with the flip.
I think bp is scum because I find it very, very hard to believe that a town player, when shown with mathematical facts, would ever decided to play sub optimally. Deciding not to lynch d1 is certainly something that scum would want to do. A town player would not want to take away a lynch opportunity, and thus it can be concluded that BP is not playing with the town in mind. I do not know if BP is scum, but I know for a fact he is NOT town. Actually his play would make a lot of sense from an sk perspective...