Space Monkey Mafia: GAME OVER!

[Glork]

Actually, no. Pro-town Kleb does not

necessarily

imply pro-town Fritz. If it's, say, Fritz+VitR, and Fritz hammers, I could still block a kill, so they haven't auto-won. I still don't find that terribly likely; I think that Fritz would probably have dropped the hammer and taken his chances overnight. I donno.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

klebian: 3 (Glork VitaminR dahen)
Glork: 2 (klebian petroleumjelly)

Not voting: Fritzler

With 6 on the bridge, it will take 4 to push someone out of the airlock.

***

STARDATE 2040.2103:

As the power on the bridge begins to fade, there is a scramble of activity. As petroleumjelly takes his hands off VitaminR and starts to push Glork into the airlock, dahen joins in the effort to squeeze klebian out of the ship.

This activity is detected by the Ship's computer who aborts the power shut-down procedure.

[Mr Stoofer]

STARDATE 2040.2104:

As the battle on the bridge of the

SS Simian

becomes ever more bloody, someone manages to send a distress signal to Orang-utan Starfleet Command. The desperate message pleads for reinforcements. In particular, it asks the Orang-utans to enlist the help of their Tiger allies in the battle to save the Galaxy from aggressive Gorilla Imperialism. But even as the message is sent, it is obvious that help cannot arrive in time. If the

SS Simian

is to be saved from the Gorillas, it must be done by the Ship's surviving crew.

For more information on the Orang-utan - Tiger Alliance, click here.

[klebian]

But Glork, if I am protown, by your pairings, you (and scum) win...
Because if I am protown, then you're not the roleblocker. And thus town loses.

[Glork]

No, Klebian. I am not ruling out entirely the possibility that something else is responsible for the lack of an N4 kill. I just very strongly believe that it's due to my blocking of you.

[Fritzler]

glork if klebian is scum who will you block?

[klebian]

Glork, go ahead and tell me again, what do you think MC's role was and why are you ruling THAT out of a possibility for lack of a n4 kill?

[Fritzler]

maybe cuz he died day 4?

[Fritzler]

oh wait nvm

[Glork]

glork if klebian is scum who will you block?

At this point, if Klebian is lynched as scum, I'm definitely blocking VitR overnight.

This still holds true.

Glork, go ahead and tell me again, what do you think MC's role was and why are you ruling THAT out of a possibility for lack of a n4 kill?

I think that it was Backup Cop. Again, I'm not ruling out the "possibility" of MC having a role that could stop a kill... I'm just stating that I don't think it's at all likely.

[petroleumjelly]

Well, finally we have some information from votes. Certainly took long enough.

Glork:

If Klebian is scum, then it necessarily implies that the Space Monkeys

were

given a generic Gorilla Role PM. He can match flavor: you can't. And if that's true, there is nothing stopping Dahen from being paired with him (and even then, it's possible for Dahen to not have been given a Gorilla Role PM if he had an actual Space Monkey Traitor Role to explain his Traitor crumb). How does this change your opinion on Dahen, if at all?

I would personally expect scum who know they're in a LyLo situation to step up their game to make themselves look more innocent, so seeing some "wheel-churning" on behalf of Dahen today doesn't really do much for me.

Now that deadline is removed,

Unvote: Glork

.

[Glork]

Yeah, you're probably right. Dahen's play still reminds me of the minigame we were in together. I guess I need to step back and reconsider some things, if VitR, Klebs, and Dahen were all able to provide accurate Soldier flavor.

[Glork]

The other thing I was thinking about some time ago is that if the Space Monkeys knew each other and realized that the Gorillas thought they were scum, they could likely predict that most (if not all) Gorillas would think of themselves as Traitors. Thus, a Space Monkey could drop Traitor hints in anticipation that Gorillas would think of themselves as Traitors.

I need to go back and read Dahen, I think. Dahen, could you please link me to any completed games where you were scum? I'd like some kind of frame of reference other than our previous minigame.

[dahen]

Glork - sure. I've not been on this site for very long.
But you could always look at my list at the Wiki:
http://www.mafiascum.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl/dahen

As you see, I've only been scum twice. Once the game restarted after just a day and the other was a totally weird game when I couldn't harm town.

Klebian, I'm not totally impressed by your input to the flavor discussion. Could you please spell it out what you think I am looking for.

[VitaminR]

Klebian, I'm not totally impressed by your input to the flavor discussion. Could you please spell it out what you think I am looking for.

I would like to hear this too, although I'm starting to think the flavour discussion may not bring us much. Re-reading, the only real difference with my role PM could probably be gleaned from what has been said.

On the other hand, the fact that both klebian and Fritzler seem to be coming up blank could be very significant.

[petroleumjelly]

Uh... from what I can tell, Klebian

did

mention what I had thought you were alluding to.

Also, you should stop asking for people to "spell it out". That's how StD got modkilled.

[Glork]

Bah, those games aren't of any help whatsoever. Time to examine some Dahenposts.

Post 149 gives a reasonably accurate description of what's happened in the first six pages of the game. The only thing that I find a little disconcerting is that it took six pages for Dahen to step up and actually make a decent analysis.

Post 160 is his first hint, after some more forum downtime. Promises a re-read.

Post 197, he moves to Pooky and suggests that scums are waiting while the townies go after each other. Pooky replies by asking why he would want to sit back and wait as scum. Dahen never replies.

Post 224, Dahen laments that his vote change didn't spark any discussion... yet he never helped extend that discussion by responding to Pooky.

I replied to that post by asking why Dahen was protecting MrScumbuddyLee, and his response comes in 231. He pretty much states "I don't know if MBL is scum, I'm not protecting him." He also says basically "well, there are things to be gained from lynching MBL, but we could also get clues if we lynch elsewhere. I'm leaning towards the latter." Immediately afterwards, inHim correctly points out that Dahen was being pretty vague in that post. Not exactly a groundbreaking observation there.

Post 316 is his second traitor hint. He posts some stuff that I don't really understand/like, but he also was obviously posting from the perspective of a Gorilla. I can't tell if that perspective was feigned or not.

Goes along with PJ vote (citing others' mentioning of "double-distancing") then unvotes when PJ "puts up nicely."
He then takes a jab at CES, pointing out how CES hasn't really done anything or contributed. He asks CES to share a little more, but doesn't go as far as to vote CES for pressure or anything. Distancing? Possibly.

He makes one post on D3 (496) to vote CES after Thok tells us to go after CES. Definitely indicates that he knows what's going on by saying that he doesn't think there are two groups, but that there are other tricks going on.

He further indicates that he understands things when he asks CES if "everything [went] as planned." However, he also says that he's not sure "no kill" is something to be happy about because only Gorillas had died. This indicates that he didn't understand the backwardsness of alignment. Could you clarify this, dahen? At that point, did you know that SMs were scum or not? Did you figure that Thok had an investigative role?

Post 554 interests me, especially this part:

The talk yesterday about informed minority made me believe that this turning point would come.

He says that the "informed minority" discussion led him to believe that a turning point would come. The wording seems to imply that he knew there would be a "turning point," and that his observation was along the lines of "Thok's discovery and discussion of an 'informed minority' rather than 'Gorillas' will lead to the turning point."
(Incidentally, the last line in dahen's post gave me an idea for a mechanic. *jots down*)

Post 614, he compliments SV on her post, reiterates that he doesn't think Klebian is cleared, and presents a theory that even he admits he found unlikely.

Post 626 is silent compliance with the MC lynch. MC complains that dahen is getting away with not even saying anything, even though MC would never be able to do that.

Post 742, he threatens to hammer Nightson but gives him another chance to pop back into the thread. Possible Dahen-VitR connection noted.

Explains his absence in Post 816 and mentions Mini 358. States that he's done a cursory read of recent posts and hasn't found anything particularly scummy.

Next few posts are vote analyses; ultimately concludes that Nightson might be scum and FoSes him in 845 while helping to finish Twito off.

FoS with intent to vote in Post 867 after my claim. He wants Nightson to pop in, though. Is it possible that he was trying to set up a quick-lynch? That's distinctly possible. The one thing that snags me on this (and something I actually thought about earlier, but don't think I ever mentioned) is that if VitR is scum and Klebian is pro-town, with Dahen saying that he plans on voting Klebs, all VitR had to do was fabricate some cursory post and conclude that he agrees with the Klebian lynch. Vote Kleb, have Dahen vote Kleb, done and done. That didn't happen. Instead, VitR suggested that we pull things back and talk a bunch.

That's something of a minus for a Dahen-VitR pairing, but a potential plus for Kleb-VitR. It could also just be general pro-town curiosity from VitR. Still, it leaves me somewhat hesitant to label Dahen-VitR as a scumgroup.

On the other hand, Dahen asked VitR to provide his analysis, and he indicated that he would vote afterwards. A couple of hours later is when VitR makes his "I want more discussion first" post. Perhaps their window to quick-lynch had passed? Or perhaps they were worried that a quicklynch would be quite obvious, and they didn't want to risk me blocking one of them. That seems pretty plausable, too.



Dahen never really said anything about Fritzler. Then again, he never really said anything about Twito either, and he only poked at CES once without even supplying it with a vote (and he never really said anything about me either, come to think of it). If indeed we accept that scums had flavor or the Soldier PM, I could see Dahen as being scum. However, I have no idea who I think his scumbuddy would be.

[petroleumjelly]

Well, the only person who I think is probably town at this point is Fritzler (for his lack of hammer today, and for the substance of his wagons earlier in the game). But since I've been pointing that out few days now, I suppose this doesn't really come as a surprise.

I'll try to find time to reread the game this weekend, but I can't make promises given my schedule.

[petroleumjelly]

Okay.

I've decided that the scum-group is probably one of:
1.) Glork + VitaminR (Nightson)
2.) Klebian + VitaminR (Nightson)

I'll go for the common denominator. Fritzler doesn't look like scum, and Dahen doesn't look like scum. I'm not scum. That leaves three players, and I doubt Glork and Klebian are scum (though if they are, congrats on pulling such a well-executed gambit).

Vote: VitaminR

. I think Nightson was one of the lurker Space Monkeys, trying consistently to stay out of discussion or taking any large stances. If I'm alive tomorrow, I can decide between Glork / Klebian, but it really shouldn't be a problem.

If one of these two pairings is correct (and VitaminR turns up scum), Glork will block Klebian tomorrow night. If there is a Nightkill, Klebian is cleared. If there is not a nightkill, then there are 5 players alive giving the town two lynches, so even if Glork is scum an purposely no-killed, the town can just lynch both Klebian and Glork anyhow.

[petroleumjelly]

^ Also, that post assumes there are 2 Space Monkeys remaining. It is technically possible for there to be only 1 left.

[petroleumjelly]

In fact, that's as good an exercise as any.

What pairings do all of you find to be most likely at this point? It can be more than two, but only include them if you think they are likely. We can work from there.

[Glork]

Off-hand, I would say Klebian/VitR or Klebian/Fritzler.

[petroleumjelly]

Ah, hmm, yes. Klebian/Fritzler is a possibility.

[dahen]

First some replies to Glork.

496: When nothing but Gorillas had died N1 and N2 and I hadn't been recruited even though I believed my hints would have been picked up if the Gorillas knew they were looking for me (which I believed at that point), I figured there was something wrong. Two scum groups didn't seem as the answer, but I wasn't convinced of the reverse setup until Thok's said "Excellent" (post 522). Although when Thok started pushing CES and talked about informed minority I was curious as to if this would be the case.

My first post the day after the CES lynch (521) was made as an attempt to get Thok to reveal his plan. Since I wasn't completely sure, I tried to still look like a SM by saying "Also, we had no night kill tonight, but I don't know if that's very much to be happy about. We have only had gorillas killed that way anyway" in case I would have guessed wrong on Thok.

To be clear:

At that point, did you know that SMs were scum or not?

No, but I strongly believed something there was something strange about this setup and I saw that theory as the most likely.

Did you figure that Thok had an investigative role?

I'm not sure exactly what qualifies as an investigative role, but I was totally convinced that he had role-based information regarding CES.

What pairings do all of you find to be most likely at this point?

My stand-point hasn't changed since I posted this:

I'm leaning at voting Klebian. I am suspcious about Glork, but so was I last time when he was town. The lack of kills and the return to Thok at the point it did fits well with a roleblocker. Glork was fast with his claim this day, which speaks in his favor too.

With Klebian as one scum, I'd say Fritzler is the other. Mostly based on townie feelings from the rest. Fritzler is always posting so short posts that I have a hard time reading him. I'll see if I can find any support for this theory.

I've promised an analysis on Klebian+Fritzler, but that has to wait. Real life calling.

[klebian]

I'd say glork/vitaminR. glork/fritz doesn't seem as viable to me, and dahen's crumbs are good enough to keep him out of suspicion. I believe that I have said all that I can say in the flavor discussion.
Dahen, PJ responded to that, and I agree; how does it make glork out of suspicion because last time you were suspicious of him, he was town?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 124#528124