Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[notscience]

Hell yeh who ever. is vig is way better at picking scum than me. I Would of shot peabody or NS.

I don't like this post, looks like too early to assert in "THERES A VIG"

[SleepyKrew]

This is a dodge of prodular proportions

[fferyllt]

This is a dodge of prodular proportions

BTW I'm feeling almost insufferably smug about my not-a-pressure-vote on Maestro.

And I'm a little more squicked than before by your efforts to dismantle that wagon.

[notscience]

VOTE: SK

[SpyreX]

I'll be back later tonight.

However, ffery:
Please help me find out who dismantled and redirected the Empire wagon at end of day BACK on to Brian.

Those people get to die a lot.

As for NS's vig mantra:
What makes you think that shot wasn't a vig shot?

[Garmr]

@NS this was your perfect chance to vote me. I thought we were vote buddies man

@SpyreX I think it's the flavor of the kill I reread it and it had slipping pills and knifes. Sounded a little serial killerish.

[Plum]

Hell yes.

Let's see, quick look at Empire, plus votecounts and other stuff as necessary.

Spoiler: Empire on YYR/Grimgroove and Grimgroove/YYR on Maestro/Empire

Lists him under scum initially but never votes him.

YYR: Very weak read here, but I didn't like his cursory mention of the miller claim when he entered the thread in #57. Aside from that, the attacks he's given on Kaze just feels like he's hitting things that look bad on the surface but not aren't actually scummy. Still waiting on more content from him though.

ffery's case is probably a way more eloquent explanation of what pinged me about YYR but the dude's getting replaced so hopefully there will be more data from that slot.

Jesus christ, I just read through Grimgroove's posting on page 29 and what the actual fuck did I just read?

YYR was under potential pressure from the time Empire replaced in (pretty sure YYR replaced out only slightly afterwards. Checking, CTD had a vote on YYR at the time Empire posted his reads/catchup thing and voted, when I think the Spy had two votes).

Didn't get much out of the catchup. I'm still not getting where everyone is getting a town read on Brian. The SK/Smudger back and forth made me a bit more comfortable on SK, but I kind of just skimmed through Smudger's post. Still like my vote where it is.

What do you think about the Maestro wagon?

Lack of contribution is certainly anti-town, but it doesn't feel scummy unless the guy has a history of it as scum. Feels like a safe wagon especially when pressure didn't seem to work last time.

Do you feel that way about all of the votes?

Yes. None of them look like they're going to commit to that wagon for the long term simply because Maestro hasn't done anything. Someone who's on the wagon is free to correct me.

Maestro was neither, I was genuinely surprised when I saw his "waaaaat"-post. Felt like a post of some out-of-game-observer.

Empire (still no read at this point, so he still is an option)

I'll read up on Empire specifically now. Spyrex and fferyllt pulling it gives me faith.

@ferryllt: my lynchpool is SleepyKrew - Plum - Empire and given his behavior from last night, well, I can't say I'm liking Brian all that much anymore. But SleepyKrew is on his wagon, which gives me enormous pause, and somehow I would understand that a miller is demotivated at a stage like this.

I've just ISO'd Empire and I have to say: it's difficult not to be impressed.

I don't see what you mean by him not scumhunting or townhunting. 423 blew me off my socks in that regard. The level of analysis shown there is just how I would like to have done it.

And in 411 he provided a perspective on the miller claim I hadn't even considered before: pre-game scum QT-talk. It's true, scum could have devided this plan, and who better to perform it than Brian Skies, the newbie nobody will suspect of having thought of such a thing?

I can't see Empire-scum. I'm looking at Lolwagons' and Spyrex' ISO now to see what case he's got against him, but from what I've seen Empire did attack Spyrex, making the latter's vote suddenyl look quite opportunistic. This could be a blitzwagon, with a lack of town-consensus, that Spyrex is trying to force through on character rather than on argument.

It appears I inadvertently entered the Champions League by joining in this game. Slowly starting to feel this is all going over my head.

That said: I prefer a Brian-lynch over an Empire-lynch right now. 411 is an eye-opener and Brian's latest behavior fits that scenario perfectly.

[regarding the late wagon on Empire]

Empire, no, not feeling it, sorry, you'll have to look elsewhere for support for that one.

Spoiler: Empire on CDB and CDB on Maestro/Empire

Empire lists CDB under null initially.

CDB: Liked his entry into the game as that seems consistent with what I remember of his early game play as town, but the fade out really worries me as I know he has a tendency to get lurky / inactive as scum. Expecting more content to hopefully make the slot more readable.

There's a back-and-forth between them about scum taking a stance or avoiding it on hypothetical scumflipped-Brian.

I was kinda getting the urge to vote CDB because a lot of his reasoning for townreading / suspecting notscience and Peabody in particular seemed really fake but the self deprecation bits in posts like #689 sound genuine and I'm fairly sure I've seen him be apathetic like this as town before but I'd need to double check (also minor thing, but I liked that he felt the need to continue posting during his sleeping hours as I don't really think he'd give anywhere near as much of a shit as scum).

I had a good town bloc forming and started to hone in on some suspects but it's hard to do that when they're not even there for me to sort out.

YYR was in your scumlist, so that's excused
But suspect

S

?
Only other person that hasn't been here is Kazeslot
You had Kaze as town
So when did you try to hone in on him?

I'm not talking about replacements only, you know (it's been a while, but I was thinking of YYR / CDB / Brian when I posted way back when...the latter two definitely felt like they haven't been around much at any rate).

CDB on Empire:

Thoughts on the attempted Maestro wagons?

It helped show me that Kaze is town, which is nice, though I never would have joined it myself. I had Maestro down as firmly null while he was here; Empire seems promising so far.

Thoughts on the leading wagon (SpyreX)?

Chewing on it. This is either my first time playing with him or my first time in a long, long time. Empire's post was well argued but I saw enough in Spyrex's response not to jump on it yet. By reputation, I don't want us to mislynch Spyrex on Day 1 if we can avoid it so I'm probably more likely to see reasons to keep him alive than I am to lynch him, I suppose.

[the exchange noted above]

If Brian flips scum, we get to see how partners reacted to his miller claim. In that instance, I think Kaze broadly avoiding taking a stance on it, as observed by Spyrex a couple of pages ago, might be useful as a buddy indicator.

Do you really think that's a thing? I think buddies of a scummillerfakeclaim would be more inclined to at least say something about it rather than avoid it altogether (it's probably a bit of really pretentious half baked theory, but I'm thinking pregame deliberated actions like that would compel scum to say something because it gives them an easy way to enter the game).

Depends whether or not it was premeditated - I dunno if the scum got a chance to discuss it among themselves before gamestart. But, yes, I do think it's a thing.

Spoiler: Empire on CTD, CTD on Maestro/Empire

- Brian / CTD are unlikely to be scum together given the strong policy-type push from the latter in the early game (wouldn't make sense for CTDscum to agree to the claim only to strongly push a lynch on him early, especially given the site's general antipathy towards miller claims - he's be committing to a hardbus too early).

CTD: Reading him as town mostly because I think he's playing differently than from what I saw of his scum play in /in-vitational 12. In that game, his votes lacked conviction as he placed them on all of the major wagons of the time with weak / lazy reasoning and he seemed more concerned with following the crowd. The votes he's placed this game have a lot more meat to them and him being shocked early on that people are believing Brian's miller claim wholesale is something I don't really expect from his scum game -- I'd have expected him to drop the issue entirely and move onto something else, not continue to pressure Brian. Need to do a full-on meta check here too, though, as I know he plays a very strong game as scum and I don't remember having read his town games too deeply.

And CTD's stuff himself:

I also empathize with a desire to get Maestro to contribute, but I think those votes would be much better served on the people who are contributing without any noticeable intent of moving the game forward, namely Brian Skies and Smudger.

I still sincerely doubt that this budding Maestro wagon is a productive use of votes.

I still didn't move my vote. Even though Empire is probably scum, Kaze is still the better lynch.

Why is Empire scum?

He questions Kaze (I think voting Empire and the only one doing so for a good chunk of the Day) after disputing something Kaze said against Empire's stuff:

Secondly, is this the only issue you have with Empire's analysis?

Nope. I'm not playing speak and spell. If you dont see why I think he's scum from a post you are quoting you're either being willfully obtuse or *gasp* dont care enough to look. Its almost like its a trend.

Don't give me that crap. I hate it when people play "I see something that you don't see" in mafia. All you've had to say about Maestro is that he's lazy and needs to "step up or die". That's awfully thin reasoning to say that Empire is "probably scum", particularly when the "lazyness" in question on Maestro's part has resulted in dropping out.

In the one game I played with Empire, I found him to be very transparently town, and I'm gonna wait and see if that shines through in this game as well before I put much thought into reading him.

Did a very cursory glance of the two games Empire linked and don't feel confident in forming a full meta yet.

Don't have the energy right now to look through SK's ISO and ponder how likely it is that a Maestro buddy would criticized the early mini-wagon on him so vocally (among other potential issues that don't come to mind so readily), but. The above are roughly in the order I find them suspect based on how they related to Maestro and Empire and vice versa.

VOTE: Grimgroove

[fferyllt]

I'll be back later tonight.

However, ffery:
Please help me find out who dismantled and redirected the Empire wagon at end of day BACK on to Brian.

Those people get to die a lot.

been drinkin'

I'll work on this but probably won't get it researched and posted tonight, not if I do what I'm thinking about doing.

One thing that jumps to mind is Plum's response to my concerns about Empire and misgivings about the Brian wagon as mere meta cases or some such.

[SpyreX]

@Garmr:

Read again. Both kills were shots. Empire had the knives, etc.

Spoiler: Wagons

Grimgroove: CrashTextDummie, Notscience
notscience: Garmr

Empire

: SpyreX, fferyllt
ChannelDelibird:

Brian Skies

,

lolwagons

CrashTextDummie: Grimgroove

lolwagons

: Peabody

Brian Skies

: ChannelDelibird, SleepyKrew, Plum

Grimgroove: Notscience
notscience: Garmr

Empire

: SpyreX, fferyllt,

lolwagons

SleepyKrew:

Brian Skies

, Grimgroove
ChannelDelibird: Peabody

Brian Skies

: ChannelDelibird, SleepyKrew, Plum, CrashTextDummie

notscience: Garmr

Empire

: SpyreX,

lolwagons

,

Brian Skies

, fferyllt
SleepyKrew: Grimgroove
ChannelDelibird: Peabody

Brian Skies

: ChannelDelibird, SleepyKrew, Plum, CrashTextDummie,

Empire

, Notscience

notscience: Garmr

Empire

: SpyreX,

lolwagons

,

Brian Skies

, fferyllt
SleepyKrew: Grimgroove

Brian Skies

(L-0): ChannelDelibird, SleepyKrew, Plum, CrashTextDummie,

Empire

, Notscience, Peabody

CTD (shock) was the vote that pushed Brian ahead.
The second Brian voted for SK someone should have noticed. Plum saying its a barrel of WIFOM hurts the brainmeat.
Peabody's throwaway vote is very, very bad. He avoided it entirely.
NS's vote was the one that really cemented the momentum.

Empires wagon was all town. Scum swung at least one other vote on that one taking it, especially with it being a roleblocker AND them knowing brian was actually a miller putting a big ol "THAR BE COPS" in the setup spec. That one would be committed to.

I'm not stoked about SK's pushing but I've still got warm there.
Peabodies vote there doesn't bother me AS much.

Unvote, Vote: NS

This one is the one that really sets me off.

CTD and Plum are close.

[fferyllt]

Peabody is kaze, and kaze was the first to go back to the Maestro/Empire wagon after Empire replaced in.

[Garmr]

SpyreX you missed my vote on Peabody/Kaze

[Garmr]

Oh don't worry just realized you weren't doing every wagon my bad.

[Grimgroove]

Will be catching up today.

[Peabody]

Garmr's post looks like a 'congratulating the doctor' tell.

SK's attack on the Maestro wagon was weird to begin with as was pointed out before. The coaching. The chainsaw defense of the Maestro slot.

VOTE: SleepyKrew

I'm fairly confident NS is town. His meta matches exactly with a previous game I've had with him as town. Exactly. And while this made me suspicious at first, I decided that plus NS's vote on Maestro early makes him town.

[Peabody]

Spyrex's vote on Empire strikes me as odd. His early vote on Empire does not clear him in my opinion.

Reasoning Spyrex voted Empire: Let's make it interesting.

[Peabody]

What vote is my throwaway vote, Spyrex?

I already said I thought Empire was reading as town to me yesterday.

My Lolwagon or my CDB vote? The CDB vote had less reasoning, but my gut was pinging. My Lolwagon vote was based on my Smudger read.

Or are you commenting on how I was off the major wagons toward the end of the day? How was I supposed to know which wagons would pop up? I was positive when I put down my CDB vote that others were also on that wagon, but I guess I didn't read it closely enough because CDB's voters switched. I didn't care for a Brian lynch, but it was about an hour before deadline before I put out that vote.

[notscience]

Garmr's post looks like a 'congratulating the doctor' tell.

This was exactly my thought process

[CrashTextDummie]

CTD (shock) was the vote that pushed Brian ahead.

Ayup. I regret holding off on committing to an Empire read, but I can't really feel bad about pushing the Brian wagon towards the edge.

I have a feeling the empire wagon was pure town. Maybe 1 more scum on the Brian Skies wagon?

Do you have a scum read on Grimgroove or Garmr?

Empire on CDB and CDB on Maestro/Empire

What about this interaction makes you think they're scum buddies?

--------------

NS, why Brian over Empire? Looking at your ISO, you never really committed to a Brian read (he was null in every substantial analysis post of yours), while you did express a scum lean on Empire at one point.

-------------

Not really interested in people off the wagon. Grimgroove defended himself well enough against my accusations and I have trouble seeing him tooting a scum buddy's horn like he did Empire's at the end of yesterday. On the Brian wagon, I think CDB and Peabody are likely town. In the context of his ISO, notscience's vote looks most suspect to me.

vote: notscience

[notscience]

Because he was the largest wagon at the time and I had to leave.

[Grimgroove]

Garmr's post looks like a 'congratulating the doctor' tell.

SK's attack on the Maestro wagon was weird to begin with as was pointed out before. The coaching. The chainsaw defense of the Maestro slot.

VOTE: SleepyKrew

I'm fairly confident NS is town. His meta matches exactly with a previous game I've had with him as town. Exactly. And while this made me suspicious at first, I decided that plus NS's vote on Maestro early makes him town.

Agreed wholeheartedly.

VOTE: SleepyKrew[/post]

I don't have much else to add at this point, apart from the fact that Plum's effort in 1031 rings town to me, though I'd like to hear more about her pre-selection process when lifiting out those three. Empire had me fooled, there's no denying it, and the vig really did town a huge favor because I don't think he was going to get lynched very easily. Other reads remain unchanged, though ChannelDeliBird's grumpiness is becoming less of a decisive factor in my townread on him, which is wavering fiercely given I don't remember seeing him around ever since I sobered up here.

[Grimgroove]

VOTE: SleepyKrew

[SleepyKrew]

Promise content within the next 24 hours

[SleepyKrew]

Oh I already did a prod dodge earlier didn't I
Well my chronic headaches have been really bad past few days so that's my excuse and now you should feel bad for me

[Peabody]

SK, I'd really like to hear your response to GG's questions at the end of the last day period.

[Garmr]

Getting my thoughts together prod dodge.