Mini 1501: We're On A Boat! (END?! results inside)

[fferyllt]

I'm pretty sure CTD is going to want to lynch Plum unless his thoughts have changed significantly since day 2.

[Grimgroove]

He didn't seem to mind a CDB lynch either, so we'll see.

[fferyllt]

He didn't?

Spoiler:

I just can't get back into this game. Hopefully, an SK replacement can breathe new life into it.

I'm still not okay with a CDB lynch.

notscience, stop looking scummy, your antics will possibly halt this wagon on scum. Thank you for your understanding.

I didn't really see this as scummy antics. Antics, sure, but more the "let's make something happen" kind. The "whoops, didn't mean to put him at L-1" take-back is more problematic to me. I don't really understand why you'd object to your #1 suspect being put at L-1.

unvote, vote: Plum

With a little more than a day until deadline, we should either force a claim out of CDB and go from there or work on a viable counter-wagon.

I obviously prefer option b.

I don't think an SK wagon based purely on his flaking has a lot of legs, but I'm not generally opposed to his lynch if ABR doesn't start putting in effort. I think Plum is more likely to flip scum.

Fuck. I'm so sorry. This isn't fair, I'm not going to have enough time over the next few days to catch up with this. Particularly sorry to CTD 'cause at least I've completed games with some of the others here.

Mod:

Huge apologies. It's best if I request replacement. Sorry for not manning up and recognising as much sooner.

Wow. Dropping out as one of the leading wagons 4 hours before deadline.

Obviously not shocked about the drop out, but good grief that's fucking dismal.

A CDB lynch is possible, but he will still very likely flip tow

n (even more likely with the request to be replaced).

Maybe. The last person who requested replacement at the 11th hour in a game of mine was scum.

Given my history with CDB, I don't see him pulling this as scum

.

[Grimgroove]

Ah. My memory has obviously failed me

Now that Yates has answered my question about SpyreX-notscience (albeit in a very unsatisfactory way), would you mind telling me what you had in mind when agreeing with his conclusion?

Tit for tat, I'll give you a glimpse of my theory right after that.

[Grimgroove]

Although on second thought, SpyreX shouldn't be a priority for today.

[Yates]

Although on second thought, SpyreX shouldn't be a priority for today.

You understand that when Plum flips scum you get lynched tomorrow, right?

[fferyllt]

I had a strong independent town read on notsci from the outset. I was unsure of SpyreX because I felt like he was aggressively buddying me during the first few days of day 1 and it eventually made me a little paranoid. CDB actually defused that with the kuribo flowchart, but I recovered the town read on my own because the back and forth bouts of paranoia between notsci and SpireX looked town-on-town. Whether a notsci town flip actually points strongly to town SpireX may be debatable (I say it does point that way), but the more important consideration to me is what would scum think? Continued or increased paranoia between those two could help increase the in-thread noise level. And the confirmation of notsci-town, given notsci backed off his own scum read yesterday makes SpireX's concerns about the neighborhood look even more like town paranoia.

I've agreed with many of SpireX' reads, with the exception of CDB and notsci. Plum for me is more of a null but that's probably in part because I devalue VCA a little.

[Grimgroove]

Although on second thought, SpyreX shouldn't be a priority for today.

You understand that when Plum flips scum you get lynched tomorrow, right?

Is that another one of your 100% guarantees or should I actually be worried?

[Yates]

That's only 40% guaranteed. I can't promise the rest of the Town will follow through on it but I guess we'll have a night to solidify that plan.

[pitoli]

VOTE COUNT 3.1

Yates (1):

Grimgroove

Plum (2):

Peabody, Yates

Not Voting (5):

SpyreX, fferyllt, Garmr, CrashTextDummie, Plum

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Time until deadline: (expired on 2013-11-21 00:00:00)

Mod Notes

:

[Peabody]

GG, if you didn't like my case on Plum, what do you think of CTD's case on Plum?

[Grimgroove]

Better, but I think Plum addressed that one adequately.

[Garmr]

@fferyllt: What are YOUR thoughts on Grimgroove?

Disturbed. I know from our one prior game together that bad reads plus heavy pressure happen in your town game, but doing that accidentally as town leaves room for purposeful mislynches as scum. And I've been rehashing my concerns about the prior occupant of your slot.

We are missing a kill today. If I had to guess, I would say that notsci wasn't the scumkill. He looks more in line with motivations that would have driven an Empire kill.

@Fferylt

I don't really want to say why just yet because I could be wrong or I could jeopardize someone, but I agree with this post mostly.

@Yates

So Plum was voting for Town in both final votes while off the wagon on Albert.
Garmr was voting for Town in both final votes and was the hammer on Albert.
Peabody was voting for Town on both final votes and was the hammer on Skies.

Since I have a very strong Town read on SpyreX, I am convinced all three people voting for Plum were Town.
That also elevates the likelihood that fferylt is Town voting with Town on Empire scum Day 1 AND makes Peabody look worse for the hammer - especially given Empires position on the wagon.

I feel very good about this vote:

VOTE: Plum

Garmr and Peabody are also good votes today, but my confidence in the Plum vote is highest.

1.This case here is quite BS. You haven't even looked into the motives of the players for their votes. Use me for an example. I had ABR as slight scum read yes but I actually perfected your slot and only hammered ABR because we had one hour in the day left.

2.Add in the fact you only did final vote verdicts and didn't even use the ones that were from the day makes the story incomplete.

3.Let look at another flaw of your people who only voted town rule. If scum bus they automatically become a town read.

4.Finally what about the people that haven't flipped yet. You have already been on one town wagon and we can't prove you been on a scum wagon since the only other person you voted hasn't flipped.

We already have one scum already busted. That means there is at least one town who has voted all towns that's if a scum member didn't try to bust on empire for town cred. So your scum tell is as likely to catch town as well as scum Is it really that efficient?

Also don't get me started that the people you have suspicions on are all people that were suspicious of your slot.




FINAL VERDICT
This looks like an attempt of trying to look like your scum hunting when your really not. There's no logic behind it. I also didn't liked the CBD slot either.

VOTE: Yates

[Garmr]

EBWOP

*catch town as much as it is likely to catch scum.*

[Grimgroove]

Yeah I'm here. Give me a minute to put my thoughts together. I have a couple of VERY strong Town reads and one or two VERY strong scum reads on first pass.

I had Spyrex and notscience in my strong Town reads.

Plum and - I think - Grimm in my Scum reads.

I'll post some cases.

But first.... obligatory wagon analysis post incoming.

Where are the cases?

[Yates]

This case here is quite BS. You haven't even looked into the motives of the players for their votes. Use me for an example. I had ABR as slight scum read yes but I actually perfected your slot and only hammered ABR because we had one hour in the day left.

You were willing to lynch ABR or CDB - both of whom were Town. And how does this help your case, exactly? And how does your motivation [fake or otherwise] change the fact that you hammered Town?

[SpyreX]

I've got a quick minute. I'm not pleased about ABR yesterday, but VLA will do that.

Yates is probably town. FFery it town. Garmr is town. I'd bet hard on these things still.

Barring shenanigans writ large, that's enough to do it.

Unvote, Vote: Plum

[Plum]

Peabody, I'm fairly sure your slot isn't scum with Empire, but please explain how and why [url=http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p5443135]Post #1283[/url[] isn't an unfathomably bad case? We have one flipped scum. I'm not sure who you suspect besides me, and it's really not indicative that I haven't voted or expressed suspicions of myself

VOTE: Plum

Garmr and Peabody are also good votes today, but my confidence in the Plum vote is highest.

Why? And if it makes you feel any better, I'd have gladly voted ABR at the end of the Day to avoid a no-Lynch, as I worried might be necessary when the school's Wifi refused to work that afternoon, though I still greatly preferred a lynch on your slot.

VOTE: Yates

[Plum]

Welp, that was something worth previewing

[fferyllt]

Yates, I would also like to see your cases.

[Garmr]

This case here is quite BS. You haven't even looked into the motives of the players for their votes. Use me for an example. I had ABR as slight scum read yes but I actually perfected your slot and only hammered ABR because we had one hour in the day left.

You were willing to lynch ABR or CDB - both of whom were Town. And how does this help your case, exactly? And how does your motivation [fake or otherwise] change the fact that you hammered Town?

You pretty much dodged what I was saying and took a snippet of it then misrepped me that's pretty scummy. CBD/you hasn't been proven to us that your town. Also you have yet to show how voting all town on the final vote proves someone's scum up to day 2. Us town doesn't know who else is town and who's not (barring power roles like masons and inspectors).

I proved your way completely wrong with my post so we can to your list of scummy things.

1.Fake scum hunting.
2.Misrepping.
3.Question dodging.
4.Trying to get lynches on people who suspect.
5.Not having a real case to use on someone.
6.Potential hypocritical view points.
8 Your fallacy magically discludes you because one player you voted for hasn't flipped.


8 scum points is a awful lot of scum point to get out of one day, you really do wear your alignment on your sleeve.

[Garmr]

EBWOP

4.trying to get lynches on people who suspect you*

[CrashTextDummie]

How are you feeling about GrimGroove? And is Plum still your strongest scum read?

Grimgroove kind of won me over in our exchange towards the end of D1. His play yesterday is a double-edged sword for me. He was one of the more pro-active people in the game, but it's possible he strong-armed the ABR lynch to help out Plum. I'd probably look at Garmr for Plum-buddy first though.

Yes, Plum is still my strongest scum read. Even stronger today with notscience and ABR flipping town.

vote: Plum

L-1.

[Garmr]

So CTD what do you think of my case on Yates. Do you agree or disagree and also tell me the reasons why.

[Yates]

Garmr is town.

How confident are you on this read?