Open 545: Nothing to Hide (Game over!! MAFIA WINS!!!)

[T S O]

Alternatively, all the VT's are dead.

Aegor, work with me here.

k, I have a saved post that I will put up tomorrow (with quotes and stuff).

Massclaim is happening today.

We have the following confirmed:

HHTTTXXXXX
(X Unknown)

I am justifiably assuming no SK. Therefore the following are options:

HH?TTTTTTT
HH???TTTTT
(? PR)

I find it highly unlikely that there are 0 Ts.


Anyway, massclaim should happen so we can narrow down suspects, e.g. clear Sakura. If all town tells the truth, then we will know precisely what setup we are using because there are only 2 Maf left, making it impossible for scum to fake results. This could mean Sakura is conftown.

Popcorn. Havingfitz starts.

This post was in response to your faulty set-up speculation.

[T S O]

and I've been "cagey" about SD all game, apart from LyLo where I said I had no problem voting him?

You're scum, aren't you?

[T S O]

But is it Aegor and tool or Aegor and SD?

[Aegor]

Are you fucking kidding me? My setup spec was right on point. It was 100%, entirely correct, which you would have known since you are supposedly a VT which means you knew there were at least 4 VTs which means you knew there could not be 7 PRs. Way to try to stifle all productive discussion.

I am glad I seized the tempo and locked this one down.

[Aegor]

And my quote list has several examples of your cagey was toward SD, and that corpus basically exhausts the interaction between you two.

[SalmonellaDreams]

For the record I'd probably lynch me too.

I'm thinking Aegor and TSO, but if my accuracy with voting is indicative of how right I am, I'm probably wrong :/

Sorry I can't stay longer right now I'll be back on later this evening.

[T S O]

And my quote list has several examples of your cagey was toward SD, and that corpus basically exhausts the interaction between you two.

Quote me them, because I couldn't find one meaningful quote and I think you're talking out of your ass.

Are you fucking kidding me? My setup spec was right on point. It was 100%, entirely correct, which you would have known since you are supposedly a VT which means you knew there were at least 4 VTs which means you knew there could not be 7 PRs.

Your set-up speculation? Correct? You were completely fucking wrong! You didn't even know how many players were playing at one stage!

[Sakura Hana]

Actually I remembered something about SD... he might be scum, but it's been ages since i played with him, and even longer since i've played with scum-him.

Also no one has explained how the fuck i am cleared, Aegor seems more like buddying me than anything else at this point, maybe im wrong about tool, also im surprised that no one except SD is suspecting TSO? (or did i get that wrong).

[toolenduso]

We know based on flips that there are 2 H's, one I and one P. That's four power roles, which means that if there wasn't another town PR there would be three Ts, and three Ts would mean there's a serial killer.

So unless we have a seriously lucky SK who decided not to kill anybody this game, a seriously unlucky SK who targeted the same people as scum every night or a townie who's lying about their PR, your claim has to be genuine.

[toolenduso]

also im surprised that no one except SD is suspecting TSO? (or did i get that wrong).

Yeah I suspect TSO/Aegor.

[Sakura Hana]

Well it's nice being conftown that scum can't kill I guess.

Sakura

-> tool/Aegor

SD

TSO -> SD/tool
tool -> Aegor/TSO
Aegor -> TSO/SD
SD - Aegor/TSO
These are all the current stances unless I got something wrong.

[Sakura Hana]

3 Hits:
Aegor
TSO

2 Hits:
SD
tool

Suspects of the ones from the 3 hits:
TSO Suspects SD and Tool
Aegor Suspects SD and TSO

Suspects of the ones from the 2 hits:
SD Suspects Aegor and TSO
tool Suspects Aegor and TSO.

Ironically SD and tool feel more coordianted than Aegor and TSO, as they both have managed to both be going for the exact same 2 people.

[PeregrineV]

Vote Count 5-1

(as of Post 761)

Not Voting (5)

- Aegor, SalmonellaDreams, T S O, toolenduso, Sakura Hana

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Deadline:

Thursday, April 4, at 10am Central Time

Replacing:

No one

Prods:

None

V/LAs:

AegorMar 24

[T S O]

3 Hits:
Aegor
TSO

2 Hits:
SD
tool

Suspects of the ones from the 3 hits:
TSO Suspects SD and Tool
Aegor Suspects SD and TSO

Suspects of the ones from the 2 hits:
SD Suspects Aegor and TSO
tool Suspects Aegor and TSO.

Ironically SD and tool feel more coordianted than Aegor and TSO, as they both have managed to both be going for the exact same 2 people.

This is classic LyLo where both scum are attacking me and one misguided townie's doing it too. There's absolutely nothing I can respond to, yet everyone's calling me scum.

[toolenduso]

Ironically SD and tool feel more coordianted than Aegor and TSO, as they both have managed to both be going for the exact same 2 people.

Is that the only reason we look coordinated to you?

What about TSO and Aegor coming right out of the gate today pushing against me, then switching to bussing each other once I pointed out that they have associative tells in their ISOs?

Also, did you read the cases people posted and do you agree/disagree?

[toolenduso]

This is classic LyLo where both scum are attacking me and one misguided townie's doing it too. There's absolutely nothing I can respond to, yet everyone's calling me scum.

I posted some stuff about you here.

Also, which two are the scum and which is the misguided townie?

[T S O]

ugh go away.

[T S O]

I know I'm getting mislynched no matter what I fucking do, I've been here before.

[T S O]

What about TSO and Aegor coming right out of the gate today pushing against me, then switching to bussing each other once I pointed out that they have associative tells in their ISOs?

This doesn't make sense, at all. It's an argument which looks good on the surface but has no basis.

The scumteam of Aegor/TSO must have agreed to attack tool straight away in their QT, in order to win LyLo. When the person they were pushing to lynch, tool, pointed out some "associatives" (and I'm using this word in quotations marks for a FUCKING REASON - THEY DON'T EXIST.), instead of continuing to attack tool, we turned on each other because ...?

This is what I don't get. I originally thought SD was fucking confirmed scum and Aegor and tool would be interchangeable, but the only people who've been attacking me and misrepping today are Aegor and tool. I don't understand, but I know I'm fucked over today no matter what I do.

[toolenduso]

I know I'm getting mislynched no matter what I fucking do, I've been here before.

Nobody's even voted yet, sir, so why are you acting like the game is lost already?

[T S O]

I'd really ask Sakura, even though I know she's hellbent on lynching me, to look at the lack of a concrete ANYTHING against me. It's a smokescreen. There are no associatives, no scumslips, no cases. There's nothing at all.

PEdit: Votes are just a manifestation of intent.

[toolenduso]

I'd really ask Sakura, even though I know she's hellbent on lynching me, to look at the lack of a concrete ANYTHING against me.

Uh...she said she was thinking SD and I were a scumteam last time I checked.

There are no associatives, no scumslips, no cases.

K well I've listed two associative tells I found between you and Aegor's slot as well as one potential scumslip from you. Of course you're going to say they don't exist, but you're not really arguing against them.

The scumteam of Aegor/TSO must have agreed to attack tool straight away in their QT, in order to win LyLo. When the person they were pushing to lynch, tool, pointed out some "associatives" (and I'm using this word in quotations marks for a FUCKING REASON - THEY DON'T EXIST.), instead of continuing to attack tool, we turned on each other because ...?

...because you don't want to be linked to each other. So when I start saying that you are, you and Aegor try to put some distance between each other.

Also:

For the record I'd probably lynch me too.

I'm thinking Aegor and TSO, but if my accuracy with voting is indicative of how right I am, I'm probably wrong :/

I don't like this at all. SD is kind of acting like he's about to get lynched here even though there's kind of an equal amount of suspicion on him as there is on anybody else. Then he gets self-deprecating with his reads, kind of like he's leaving the door open to sheep somebody on a mislynch.

[T S O]

Right, then, time to find out just what you are.

Link me these slips and associatives. Quote them, succintly. I am not searching for what I believe doesn't exist.

[toolenduso]

First associative tell:

....dafuq? I've yet to fully catch up, but wow.

ABR acts scummier throughout the day, culminating with an awful hammer on Anx, only to be NK'd?

This feels like a total framejob.

This is the first post made the day after ABR got NK'ed. It feels like Kaiveran preemptively saying "I was framed!" before anybody actually threw around suspicion based on Albert's death.

Following the line of logic of scum NK'ing ABR to frame somebody -- how would ABR's death frame somebody? Perhaps because of who ABR suspected? That list was myself, TSO and Kaiveran. So to me this is Kaiveran defending all three people on that list against suspicion based on Albert's death

before anybody has a chance to bring that suspicion up.

Second associative tell:

I felt he came off strongly thinking that bjc was Town. I can't find the motivation to do what he did as scum: if it was me, I'd just completely lurk out twilight, whereas he was defending Desperado when everyone was mentioning policy vigging him.

Though the posts you bring up worry me. I'm going to look back over vonflare.

In the meantime, talk to me about Salmonella.

You defend vonflare, then go on to say that the posts Aegor just quoted make you worry and say you'll take another look at him. In your next post, you bring up a newfound question connoting suspicion on vonflare. Later, after the massclaim, you become the second vote on vonflare.

To me, the quoted post looks like it could be you letting your partner give you a reason to go for a known mislynch.

Possible scumslip:

this is excellent. come massclaim, her claim's surrounding area could nail a scum somewhere.

The scum motivation behind this post would be to warn your partner not to be in "(Sakura's) surrounding area." The town motivation for it I'm not so sure of. It feels anti-town, because why would you want to put out information that could let scum know where you're looking for scum?

@Salmonella and Aegor: You should respond to my cases against you as well.

[Aegor]

Really not liking that T S O's reaction was to attack me instead of attempting to generate discussion.

Your set-up speculation? Correct? You were completely fucking wrong! You didn't even know how many players were playing at one stage!

That setup spec was 100% accurate one my correction in 614 was made. You have yet to point out any flaws, so I assume you agree, even if you do not admit it.

Also no one has explained how the fuck i am cleared, Aegor seems more like buddying me than anything else at this point

See my posts at the end of yesterday. While you may still think I am buddying you, you are definitely cleared.

@TSO: 483, which merited but did not receive substantial follow-up, 690 (not justified).

What about TSO and Aegor coming right out of the gate today pushing against me, then switching to bussing each other once I pointed out that they have associative tells in their ISOs

I did not push you. I did not like your case against vonflame because it felt too strong and opportunistic, but when I re-read the game, I realized that it was consistent with your other cases (which were mostly, sadly directed against town). That was the point of re-reading the game: I was not content with a mere feeling. And I did not actually read your case against me before.

Spoiler: tool's case against my slot

#80: agrees bjc is his top scumread
#117: says Desperado should die tomorrow regardless of how bjc flips.
#139: with first post of day 2, votes anorway
#204: defends pressure on desp by saying he wasn’t the only one uncomfortable with the hammer, votes desp
#271: hops on TvK wagon, is third vote with six needed to lynch
#508: votes SD for gut reasons. This is the second time Kai has voted for that slot, making it seem less likely that they’re partners.
#594: calls ABR being nightkilled “a total framejob” before anybody brings that line of reasoning up. Right before dying, ABR’s top scumreads were myself, TSO and Kaiveran – this looks like kaiveran preemptively telling town that ABR being nightkilled was meant to set him up to be lynched.
Aegor replaces in at this point…

I am obviously not capable of responding to this case against Kai because I do not have any insight into Kai's psychology, which is clearly very different from my own.

#613: one of his first posts, argues that we should massclaim because then town will know the setup so scum can’t fakeclaim – which is wrong, because scum obviously did fakeclaim,

Fakeclaim

PRs

obviously. Scum can always fakeclaim VTs. The problem is that scum know whether there are PRs in the game, and thus can fakeclaim PRs in lylo. That is bad. In fact, that is exactly how my team won my last scum game.

and I feel like that should have been obvious at the time. Also asks for fitz to claim first. This is important because later he starts pushing against fitz pretty hard, making it look like scumAegor could have replaced in, picked a target for mislynch and started pushing him right away.

I found fitz scummy. My suspicion of him was completely justified when he claimed VT and then reneged on his claim after vonflare botched his claim. Your idea of pushing hard does not correspond to my own.

#614: realizes he was wrong about scum fakeclaiming, says that massclaim should happen anyway with no further explanation.

I never realized I was wrong because I never was wrong about the setup; those were the only two options for the setup. I simply made erred in assuming that scum would not be able to fakeclaim PRs, which was not important (to me, at least) anyway. A massclaim in lylo means we could be trying to decide the accuracy of 4 or even 5 PR claims. That seems undesirable to me. Massclaim should

without exception

be performed before lylo. This is textbook.

#664: suspicion on fitz comes to fruition with a vote.
#684 – 708: continues to push on fitz. Even says we should policy lynch him tomorrow (way too late in the game to consider policy lynching as pro-town), and says he’ll vote fitz the next day no matter what, even if vonflare flipped town.

Yes. Fitz's claim was terrible and hella scummy. If vonflare flipped town, the most likely possibility to me was that Sakura and Fitz were both scum fakeclaiming. This would make sense since the maf clearly knew early on that there was probably no SK. Thus a fakeclaim could be delivered early, followed by another as necessary. And surprise, fitz's came after vonflare's, and directly contradicted it.

Vonflare was lynched for his claim, which was no worse than fitz's.

#708: says he was never in favor of vonflare getting lynched, which is kind of a distortion of the truth. He said both vonflare and fitz should be lynched, and even listed vonflare as one of his scumreads in #634.

Total misrep:

And I was never in favor of lynching vonflare when fitz should have been lynched instead.

I was pretty clear that I wanted fitz lynched before vonflare, who proved to be an easy mislynch.

#728: says he didn’t like my case on vonflare yesterday without explaining why.

See above.

He didn’t complain about it at all the day before and agreed vonflare should die (even if after fitz).

Vonflare's flip provided new information.