Newbie 1495 (DAY 4) - The One where Everyone got Murdered

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Lots of stuff to address, I'll do it when I get home

Can you do this now please.

my my aren't you pushy

When you said there was a lot to address, I was expecting more than what you put in your first post.

[Xayzeck]

Why mafia killed Wolfy is kinda irrelevant. We don't know whether they saw a doctell or just random killed, and tbh it doesn't really help our position. Wolfy wasn't going to get mislynched anytime soon, and I think that should explain the nightkill enough. Don't get too distracted with why Wolfy died is what I'm trying to get at

[Xayzeck]

When you said there was a lot to address, I was expecting more than what you put in your first post.

I'm doing it post by post, instead of an entire wall. That way I'll be mindful of spamming the thread and leave out unimportant stuff

hopefully, that's the idea right now.

[Xayzeck]

It would be just dandy if we had a cop with some information for us D2......

This feels pretty town though. End D1 I didn't have a good read on Jcoz, felt like he was kinda 'in the background' for the game. Still kinda feels that way, but with his play so far D2, his reaction to night kill seems towny.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Why mafia killed Wolfy is kinda irrelevant. We don't know whether they saw a doctell or just random killed, and tbh it doesn't really help our position. Wolfy wasn't going to get mislynched anytime soon, and I think that should explain the nightkill enough. Don't get too distracted with why Wolfy died is what I'm trying to get at

You don't think that by trying to understand why scum killed who they killed it could help us to figure out who they are/what their plan is? I think it's a pretty important part of the information that N1 brings.

Ah, OK. I would prefer if you just multi-quoted, or even used spoilers and did it in one post. Saves multi-posting/spamming. Each to their own I guess.

[Xayzeck]

Mora, have you explained why Mala has suddenly become a townread after end D1?

[Xayzeck]

You don't think that by trying to understand why scum killed who they killed it could help us to figure out who they are/what their plan is? I think it's a pretty important part of the information that N1 brings.

I don't think that thinking too much into it helps. NK analysis is usually very WiFom-y and open to be of any use. They could be dochunting, killing the most townread person, killing someone who would push for them, framing someone etc there's too many things to consider, and it distracts from what's happening right now and finding scum.

[Xayzeck]

IMO a Wolfy lynch points directly at Shinobi, so that seems like a pretty stupid freaking NK if I'm Shinobi.

Can you explain this to me? I don't get it.

Anyway right now I'm leaning Mora, whether or not it's a toss up between him or Shinobi or not

And I'm not sure how I feel about Mala anymore, the main wagons D1 were enomis and Mala, and it'd be a bit odd if they were both on town.

Mala, you said that your play normally picks up D2. Now would be a good time to deliver

I sincerely doubt Mora and Mala are buddies though, I don't expect Mora to bus Mala, and Mala to throw a fit at him. I mean, it could happen, but I weigh it as unlikely.

[Moratorium]

I think the best play is to table this discussion until MM reveals his investigation results.

I'm suspicious of this. You probably know I was going to reveal a no result (thus your mafia), and wanted to hold off the discussion.

VTL Moramorandom

Please use the vote tags or bold tags to vote properly, this format will not be registered as a vote.

I wanted to hold off the discussion because it was devolving into speculation when all we had to do is wait for your result to clear things up.

[Moratorium]

Do you not think it is possible he just didn't want the thread being filled up with hypothetical situations that scum may be able to manipulate?

I notice that you did not heed this implied advice.

[Moratorium]

Furthermore, what purpose would there be in me defending Mala if I thought she was town?

What? Scumslip.

I don't see it?

The purpose is... obvious? Defending town players is.... uh..... good?

[Moratorium]

It would be just dandy if we had a cop with some information for us D2......

This feels pretty town though. End D1 I didn't have a good read on Jcoz, felt like he was kinda 'in the background' for the game. Still kinda feels that way, but with his play so far D2, his reaction to night kill seems towny.

Feels like an assumption that the cop got roleblocked to me. It was posted prior to the cop investigation reveal.

[Xayzeck]

I don't see how that is a scumslip exactly?

[Moratorium]

Mora, have you explained why Mala has suddenly become a townread after end D1?

Yes, in #691, third spoiler.

[Moratorium]

IMO a Wolfy lynch points directly at Shinobi, so that seems like a pretty stupid freaking NK if I'm Shinobi.

Can you explain this to me? I don't get it.

I'm not Jcozmo, but I'll answer anyway: It's a wifom NK targeting argument.

I sincerely doubt Mora and Mala are buddies though, I don't expect Mora to bus Mala, and Mala to throw a fit at him. I mean, it could happen, but I weigh it as unlikely.

I, too, doubt that I am scum.

[Moratorium]

I don't see how that is a scumslip exactly?

The quote is "Furthermore, what purpose would there be in me defending Mala if I thought she was town? Especially if I were actually mafia?" leading into an explanation that as scum, the "best" play is to keep the vote on Malakittens. I state otherwise (that scum thinks the lynch isn't going to happen, so 3v3 no lynch setup into deadline), but the phrasing of the above implies that all we need to consider is scum's optimal play. I think he slipped in that he's trying to defend what he considers his own optimal scum play, with no argument to the fact that defending a townread is perfectly fine and good.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I notice that you did not heed this implied advice.

Correct. It was an after thought, as well as this though; I just wanted to reply to MM in anyway that I could to try and get him to contribute to the game a little more.

[Moratorium]

Anyway right now I'm leaning Mora, whether or not it's a toss up between him or Shinobi or not

Can you tell me why, so I can address it further?

[Xayzeck]

Anyway right now I'm leaning Mora, whether or not it's a toss up between him or Shinobi or not

Can you tell me why, so I can address it further?

Basically if I were told "would you rather lynch Mora or <insert name here>" I would almost always say you.

Except maybe with Jcoz

Everybody else is townier than you

While the townread I had on you initially has kinda gone down with what enomis and the rest have said about you.

Vague as fuck and you'll probably hate me for it too

[Moratorium]

No hate, I just want town to win, so give me something to respond to so we can at least attempt to hash out a proper conclusion.

Is your read on me based primarily on what others have said?

[Jcozmo]

Anyway right now I'm leaning Mora, whether or not it's a toss up between him or Shinobi or not

Can you tell me why, so I can address it further?

Basically if I were told "would you rather lynch Mora or <insert name here>" I would almost always say you.

Except maybe with Jcoz

Everybody else is townier than you

While the townread I had on you initially has kinda gone down with what enomis and the rest have said about you.

Vague as fuck and you'll probably hate me for it too

So wait, let me get this straight - You now feel that I am the scummiest person left alive at this point?

Please elaborate.

I am going to be semi MIA for a bit I have a few meetings here.

[Jcozmo]

IMO a Wolfy lynch points directly at Shinobi, so that seems like a pretty stupid freaking NK if I'm Shinobi.

Can you explain this to me? I don't get it.

I'm not Jcozmo, but I'll answer anyway: It's a wifom NK targeting argument.

I sincerely doubt Mora and Mala are buddies though, I don't expect Mora to bus Mala, and Mala to throw a fit at him. I mean, it could happen, but I weigh it as unlikely.

I, too, doubt that I am scum.

Correct, and one I'm willing to let go of after a night to think about it. Also agree with Xayzeck that essentially most of the NK talk is wifom arguments and worth less than my initial feelings yesterday. Still, if the NK was centered around things like "towny least likely to be mislynched", why wolfy and not BBT? That is a much stronger "unlikely to be lynched D2" candidate IYAM. But maybe he's a stronger candidate for doc protection and so round and round we go.......blah blah blah......I get the point.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

@Jcozmo

- Can you reply to my question at the end of my post on Wolfy please.

[Jcozmo]

Wagon build on enomis...
1. Mala
2. Xayzeck
3. Shinobi
4. Mora
5.

None of us on the wagon so I'm looking at a scum driven wagon here...

really concerned that Mala's gone quiet again now the pressure is on enomis.
really concerned at Mora's back-off on Mala - starting to think that we're being played by an M&M (not MM) scum team.

I don't want to hammer but I even less want to no lynch.

I'm assuming since my vote is on you that you think i am one of the three...
I don't want your head on a platter - I voted you because I believed you were scum
If you convince me you're town I won't be trying to lynch you.
Only diamonds are forever.

I also include as a reason your false dilemma - me or BBT.

Anyways, looks like the wind is changing...

I am also trying to get my head around why Shinobi defended Mala so strongly? That's not scum play to me.

OK, so after ISO'ing Wolfy it seems pretty clear who he had in his sights.

*He states a scum-driven wagon on Enomis, I'm in agreement with this.

*Points finger towards a Mala and Mora scum-team, I'm down with that as well.

*Restates his reasons for voting Mala, showing he hasn't changed his mind on her yet.

*Then I noticed something pretty interesting. I think he was one of the only people left who felt sure that Shinobi is town. So, with a lot of people doubting Shinobi after his late D1 actions, kill his biggest defender in Wolfy, and it should be a pretty easy D2 lynch, right?

You said you ISO'd Wolfy Jcozmo, I'm surprised you missed this.

What do you think of what I have posted?

First, as far as me missing something, I don't think that I did. I don't think any of that specifies a target for Wolfy particularly when it's not taken out of context and looking at his whole ISO. I also think Wolfy being Shinobi's "biggest defender" its a huge stretch based on that single line, which basically just repeats what I had stated a few posts earlier. No where that I can see does he say he's sure Shinobi is town. He doesnt even come close to saying that. What he's saying is actually close to the opposite by saying that Enomis is a scum driven wagon, and his strongest town reads arent on it.

He also stated and you agree that he thought a potential Mora and Mala scum team was likely, which I feel is pretty close to the

least

likely scum team. If they are, then more power to them for an Oscar worth D1 performance. Hats off. I'm not buying that though.

I do find myself agreeing that its a scum driven wagon on Enomis though.

1. Mala
2. Xayzeck
3. Shinobi
4. Mora

5. BBT

2 of these five ARE scum, and 4 of the five were on the Enomis wagon. We are at an unbelievable disadvantage right now due to the cop claim D1. Sorry to keep piling on, MM, its just the truth.

I find myself leaning towards Mala as town, which leads me down a path that leans me toward Shinobi being town.

The case against Mora is almost too easy at this point. The points people are bringing up are valid, but I'm still getting a weird feeling that lynch is a trap.

By process of elimination that leaves you BBT, and Xayzeck as maybe #1a scum team possibilty, with a completely legit possibility that its one of that team plus Mora as #1b and #1c.

Now I'm just going to go back, re-read and question why I lean town on Shinobi if Mala is town. Perhaps that isnt valid.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

First, as far as me missing something, I don't think that I did. I don't think any of that specifies a target for Wolfy particularly when it's not taken out of context and looking at his whole ISO. I also think Wolfy being Shinobi's "biggest defender" its a huge stretch based on that single line, which basically just repeats what I had stated a few posts earlier. No where that I can see does he say he's sure Shinobi is town. He doesnt even come close to saying that. What he's saying is actually close to the opposite by saying that Enomis is a scum driven wagon, and his strongest town reads arent on it.

He also stated and you agree that he thought a potential Mora and Mala scum team was likely, which I feel is pretty close to the

least

likely scum team. If they are, then more power to them for an Oscar worth D1 performance. Hats off. I'm not buying that though.

I do find myself agreeing that its a scum driven wagon on Enomis though.

1. Mala
2. Xayzeck
3. Shinobi
4. Mora

5. BBT

2 of these five ARE scum, and 4 of the five were on the Enomis wagon. We are at an unbelievable disadvantage right now due to the cop claim D1. Sorry to keep piling on, MM, its just the truth.

I find myself leaning towards Mala as town, which leads me down a path that leans me toward Shinobi being town.

The case against Mora is almost too easy at this point. The points people are bringing up are valid, but I'm still getting a weird feeling that lynch is a trap.

By process of elimination that leaves you BBT, and Xayzeck as maybe #1a scum team possibilty, with a completely legit possibility that its one of that team plus Mora as #1b and #1c.

Now I'm just going to go back, re-read and question why I lean town on Shinobi if Mala is town. Perhaps that isnt valid.

It's not taken out of context. They are his last few posts of who he is pointing his finger at, I'm not sure why you're dismissing that. His whole ISO doesn't matter, it's what happened towards the end of D1 when the activity starting picking up that really matters.

How is it a huge stretch? He stated he didn't think Shinobi was scum based on his defence of Mala. Did anybody else state this? Or was everybody else in doubt of Shinobi's actions? I think you will find it's the latter.

Mala's flip had the potential to provide a lot of information that would have cleared some people and put suspicion on others. We were deprived of that due to all the last minute panic voting.

The last part is interesting. So I go from 'towniest person' to 'part of your number one scum team' in not a very long time at all.

Can you elaborate on your Mala being town read please. I think you will find this more appropriate than looking into Shinobi's actions.

Why is the case on Mora too easy? And if it is, why does this mean he isn't scum? People are bringing up valid points, and then you just dismiss them in your next phrase.

Case on Mora is too easy...but he could be part of a 'b' or 'c' scum team. Do you find that contradictory?