NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[chamber]

STD was probably the best positioned scum in the town hierarchy

This is a silly statement. He got lynched, clearly that's just false. Unless you are suggesting he got lynched by his team mates, but that's not in line with you accusing VitR for not lynching him.

[VitaminR]

Are you saying that he was sure that Std was scum, so that's a point in disfavor of Spyrex?

Because I have to completely disagree.

No, not at all. I said that, given the evidence SpyreX presented, I'm not sure why SpyreX was so certain about his StD read and that gives me pause (maybe it was because SpyreX already knew he was right). I explained this all in detail above.

And, ABR, I know I was totally wrong about StD. I just never got why people were so certain he was scum. I made a whole bunch of posts talking about this Day 4. If you need more fodder for your suspicions, there's Post 2132, Post 2251, Post 2947, Post 2994, Post 2997, and Post 3168, all posts in which I talk about how I didn't think StD was the right lynch.

[Albert B. Rampage]

STD was probably the best positioned scum in the town hierarchy

This is a silly statement. He got lynched, clearly that's just false. Unless you are suggesting he got lynched by his team mates, but that's not in line with you accusing VitR for not lynching him.

STD was in good standing, people bought what he was selling, he just got POE'd and then got counter-claimed. Yosarian was debating between STD and DGB and eventually picked STD as scum which tipped the balance.

[chamber]

The balance was tipped well before then from my pov.

[Green Crayons]

You know who was also certain in their reads: DGB.


Oh wow what a great indicator as to who is scum let's argue about which players were relatively more certain in their reads than others.

[Green Crayons]

I am up to page 90, there are a few things Im noticing, one, I am still finding it hard to drown DGB, two, there is still the weird DGB/ABR relationship, three, the masons need to contribute more, sotty because when she does, its usually useful and undo because well, what the hell has he done? 4, the yos and vitr discussion is slightly more interesting, its one in which yos's focus on the masons comes off badly for him, 5, MBL and GC are still obvtown

Scum version of scumhunting. Safe and unobtrusive.

[Albert B. Rampage]

I am up to page 90, there are a few things Im noticing, one, I am still finding it hard to drown DGB, two, there is still the weird DGB/ABR relationship, three, the masons need to contribute more, sotty because when she does, its usually useful and undo because well, what the hell has he done? 4, the yos and vitr discussion is slightly more interesting, its one in which yos's focus on the masons comes off badly for him, 5, MBL and GC are still obvtown

Scum version of scumhunting. Safe and unobtrusive.

I tend to agree, but then CDB isn't up to date either.

[Bookitty]

Okay. Work has been kicking my butt this week, but I'm going to weigh in on a couple of things:

MBL, I'm pretty sure you're town. But I am more sure that ABR is town. I also think GC is town, so the field of possible scum is pretty narrow when you factor in the three masons.

I have a lot of sympathy for Porochaz because of his loss. I may have been giving him a pass because of that, but I will be giving him a reread (possibly only in ISO, because work-suckage) and I'll have something to say there in the next few days.

I keep seeing things I believe to be towntells for Yos and I need to do a reread there as well. If it does turn out that VitaminR is town and Yos is scum, then my reads are completely backwards. I do think OGML was scummy for the weird way he tunnelled on DGB, but I did think she was town anyway so it might be confbias. I want to see more from CDB.

Sorry to be less than helpful of late. If there is anything I've missed or anything I really need to comment on, please point it out.

[MrBuddyLee]

And, yeah, I do usually consider "going out of your way to pick fights with a large number of people, especially strong players" to be a day 1 towntell. Obviously it's not always true, it wasn't with STD in this game, but in general, that's a kind of behavior most scum try to avoid. I don't think VitR committed that town tell here, though; do you?

I dunno, you're the one who said it:

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and

going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move

, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little...

your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum

Oh, for the record, STD is town.

So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched

, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal.

No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.

Why'd you make VitR scum and STD town for essentially the same behavior?

[Yosarian2]

You can totally have scum motivation for setting up a dichotomy between scum and town. For example, if you think that people are more likely to vote for the townie if forced to choose. Say if the townie is a particularly easy target, like DGB.

That's obvious nonesense, in any number of ways.

First of all, no, that still doesn't make any sense. If I say "Either A or B is scum", and then we lynch B and they flip town, that still gets person A lynched the next day. If I was trying to protect person A, that would be the stupidist possible way to do it.

Secondly, I never tried to lynch DGB yesterday, and in fact right from the start of the day I made clear that while either DGB or STD had to be scum, that I thought STD was more likely. I did question DGB, but I never attacked her or made a case against her.

And third of all, I think you just implied DGB was an easy lynch, which is just laughable; have you ever played with DGB before?

Besides which, you still haven't actually refuted my argument from yesterday; you keep claiming that it's absurd, but you never actually bothered to refute it. My main point yesterday was that there was no plausible 4 man scum that didn't include either DGB or STD. If you think that's untrue, then give me one. Give me 4 people who yesterday could plausably have been scum together, without including people who are either obvtown or who can't possibly be scum together because of the way they've fought, and without including either STD or DGB.

In any case, I don't have to know the motivation in order to recognize fallacious reasoning.

How can you say it's "fallacious reasoning" when you seem totally incapable of refuting it? This is at least the third time I've asked you to do so, and you apparently can't.

I gave a whole bunch of plausible scum groups in Post 3244 (we had a whole discussion about it!), but you just ignored it because you're unwilling to try to see anything from my perspective.

Are you talking about this?

Yes. There's so many players left, including two useless hard-to-read lurker slots (SpyreX, OGML). Even if we exclude you and me and all of the pairs you list, how about MBL, or GC, or BooKitty, or Poro? Are you so certain of all of your reads? I can easily think of lots of four-player scum groups that fit your constraints. It seems totally fake to claim that one of DGB and StD has to be scum.

MBL? GC? Bookitty? Poro? Really?

GC has far more town cred then most people in the game do, bookitty is very unlikely to be scum, and MBL is obvtown. You're really reaching here.

[Yosarian2]

Unvote vote yos

...

*bangs head on table*

Chamber, you're confirmed town, stop being shit and at least try to help us lynch scum here.

[Yosarian2]

And, yeah, I do usually consider "going out of your way to pick fights with a large number of people, especially strong players" to be a day 1 towntell. Obviously it's not always true, it wasn't with STD in this game, but in general, that's a kind of behavior most scum try to avoid. I don't think VitR committed that town tell here, though; do you?

I dunno, you're the one who said it:

Defending both SSK and tigras, the two leading bandwagons, and

going after people like LML, PJ, and Seol all at once is an incredibly ballsy move

, and I don't really see why you would stick your neck out like that so far, so early in the game, based on so little...

your behavior here would make the most sense if you're a scum

Oh, for the record, STD is town.

So far, he's picked a fight with Seol, LML, me, and PJ, who are 4 people that are all absurdly good at getting people lynched

, all in the first 13 pages of day 1, without any obvious benefit to him from picking all those fights. So either he's righteous town cloaked in the paladin-like armor of righteousness, or he's gone completely suicidal.

No way a scum pretending to scumhunt would stick their neck out that far.

Why'd you make VitR scum and STD town for essentially the same behavior?

No, it's the opposite behavior.

If you're scum, there is zero risk to defending a VI who you know is town. You come off looking good and all that. If you're town, there's a huge risk to defending a flailing VI who is likely to be lynched and may or may not flip scum when they do. That's what I was accusing VitR of in that post you quote.

Now, he was *using* that bandwagon to make both Seol (bookitty) and PJ look bad. But that only works if he's scum who already knows the alignment of the person who you're defending.

[Sotty7]

Juls, you're my hero. Thanks for reading like you are. I've been dumped on at work but I'm going to try to not be as absent as I have lately, use me as a sounding board if you need too. I will review your yos case in more detail as soon as I can.

@Yos

, why did you find VitR scummy and STD townish for picking fights with power players early D1?

I had an issue with stance as well now you bring it up again and the explanation still doesn't ring true to me, but there is a lot to his posts that make me feel like he is town. Post 3684 for one just hits all the right spots with me. I am extremely torn here. I think I need to look though day one again to really see how Yos' break down of the day rings true.

I think Poro needs a lynching. I don't know how he got so far back or if he is just re-reading but this is a little silly now. Agree very much with GC.

Does anyone know KK's scum meta? I have a feeling that he likes to bus as scum so MBL's reasoning for finding him town based on votes could be flawed. It has been so long since I played with him though.

ABR is still town.

Vote: Porochaz

[Yosarian2]

Quick breakdown, assuming 3 scum left.

Confirmed town:
8) undo
9) Sotty7
11) Juls (replacing petroleumjelly)
1) Chamber

Obvtown:
5) MrBuddyLee- pretty clear he's not scum with STD, his case against him was strong from the start
15) Albert B. Rampage

Looks town:
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)- mostly based on day 1 wagon
17) SpyreX (replacing inHimshallibe who replaced Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22) - a little iffy, but attacked STD well for much of the game
16) Green Crayons- mostly based on day 1 attacks on LML

Remaining:
2) Porochaz
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)
18) VitaminR
22) ChannelDelibird (replacing OhGodMyLife who replaced Kublai Khan who replaced Tigris)

Like I said, I'm pretty confident CDB is not scum with VitR at this point, since OGML was pretty strongly in favor of lynching VitR instead of CES. So I think we're looking at

(Porochaz + mathcam + VitR) or (Poro+ mathcam + CDB). I'm willing to entertain the possibility I might be wrong about either SpyreX or GC, but either one seems unlikely at this point. I am not willing to entertain either MBL, Albert, or chamber as possible scum, and I really doubt BooKitty could be scum here.

Today, I'd be willing to lynch porochaz, mathcam, or VitR. Actually, the more I think about it, maybe we should just lynch mathcam or porochaz today; emotionally, I really want to lynch VitR, especally since basically every post of his just makes me scream in frustration at this point, but as a practical matter, it's harder to see a scenario where either mathcam or porochaz flips town.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote Porochaz

Alright Yosarian, we will revisit this another day.

[Yosarian2]

Fine.

unvote:VitR

vote:Porochaz

Doesn't give us as much information, but I would be pretty surprised if Prozac flips town at this point, and getting the scum group down to 2 members should make it a lot harder for town to screw this one up.

[Green Crayons]

@Yos:

you have been pretty confident in calling Poro town throughout the entire game up until post 3713. And I do mean this literally -- for example, most recently you derided Vitamin for suggesting a Poro scum in 3709. You posting Poro-is-town meesages occurred throughout the game, and it has not diminished at the end of yesterday/beginning of today.


But now in 3715 you're going to be "pretty surprised" if he flips town?


I have whiplash.

[Yosarian2]

(shrug) Take a look at that list. a few posts ago From my point of view, the only way porochaz could be town is if either you're scum and did an amazing job bussing LML day 1, or if spyrex is scum and did an even more amazing job bussing STD for days, Either is possible, but neither seems that likely to me right now. Or I guess if the scum group is smaller then I expect and there's only 2 scum left, but that seems unlikely, there's been a lot of town power.

Do you disagree with any of my reads?

[chamber]

Chamber, you're confirmed town,

Do you know something I don't?

[SpyreX]

... How is chamber confirmed town?

I mean he probably is, with the way things are panning out, but.

No, not at all. I said that, given the evidence SpyreX presented, I'm not sure why SpyreX was so certain about his StD read and that gives me pause (maybe it was because SpyreX already knew he was right). I explained this all in detail above.

And, ABR, I know I was totally wrong about StD. I just never got why people were so certain he was scum. I made a whole bunch of posts talking about this Day 4. If you need more fodder for your suspicions, there's Post 2132, Post 2251, Post 2947, Post 2994, Post 2997, and Post 3168, all posts in which I talk about how I didn't think StD was the right lynch.

So, and I want to get this straight.

I inherit lurkaderpa slot, call a super easy to hop on myslynch town because they were town AND then leap down the throat of my buddy?

I didn't need to make a huge case on STD, because giant cases are a waste of time. That response to zor was enough for me to want fire. His constant smirk was enough to be sure of it.

I'm struggling with this against how little sense you-scum makes with that early d1 stuff but good lord

[MrBuddyLee]

time for a paddlin

[MrBuddyLee]

Confirmed town:
1) Chamber

Also, this is very exciting. I'm going to go have a drink to celebrate.

[Green Crayons]

Do you disagree with any of my reads?

Not particularly. (Though I did notice that you didn't include yourself in the list at all.) I just wanted an explanation.

-----

I assumed Yos's positioning of chamber as "confirmed town" derives from Yos picking up that chamber is the vig based off of yesterday's twilight conversation. I don't think that chamber actually claimed vig, it is purposefully ambiguous as to who is the vig, and I'm fine with that and don't see the need to draw attention to the issue.

[chamber]

I played along yesterday but someone putting me as confirmed town because of it is over the line. I'm not the vig. I responded to the comment in question intentionally so that the real vig wouldn't fall on the bomb the way it was perceived that I had.

[mathcam]

Yos's about-face on Porochaz is the scummiest thing I've seen so far from him this game. Maybe from anyone.

...(Porochaz + mathcam + VitR) or (Poro+ mathcam + CDB)...

Nice setting up the next lynch if Poro flips scum (a situation which you now miraculously seem to find obvious). Tell me again how you think mathcam-porochaz is a plausible scumpair? I believe I've been the most vocal critic of porochaz of the entire game, at times when others (e.g, Yosarian2) had been definitively and repeatedly declaring him obvtown (in the strong sense of the word).

Calling chamber confirmed town is as bad as DGB calling out her perception of ABR being a cop.

If you're scum, Yos, 3713 is the post that lost you the game.