NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[mathcam]

Oh. My bad then.

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, Yos. I feel like you did act kind of weird though. Major props for laser focus on LML day one.. I suppose you should take it as a compliment that your focus felt so over the top that it had to be scummy. I actually had a post lined up ten days ago or so where I counted how often you referenced LML D1 and it was an unreal disproportionate amount. So yeah, you get full credit for him. You still get only partial credit for STD though.

Thanks for stepping in, Juls.

@MBL:

have you ever made a "how long does it take to type a post" argument before?

Probably. I'm totally CSI in my mind.

@MBL:

also, what was this about:

vote: Yosarian2

unvote

vote: Yos

I wanted to slow shit down.. didn't want a momentum lynch happening, wanted people to think and compare "equivalent" wagons and determine which was best. I had a little regret overnight thinking that Yos wasn't as good of a lynch as Poro, but to be honest, I think he had about as good of a chance of coming up scum.. it's just that the hangover from being wrong is worse with Yos. The way Poro's played, if he comes up town, I'll be more mad at him than at myself if I vote him.

Someone please make a compelling case. I've found reasons for mathcam, CDB and Poro to be town and I'd like to discard them all immediately and start fresh.

@Sotty

, I know you're town and all, but cut me some slack on the Yos thing. If you really thought Poro was obvScum you'd be voting him right now. His wagon looked to be coming together a little too easily yesterday, which is rarely a good sign.

[chamber]

Making cases for why someone is town seems counter productive most of the time.

[SpyreX]

@Sotty, I know you're town and all, but cut me some slack on the Yos thing. If you really thought Poro was obvScum you'd be voting him right now. His wagon looked to be coming together a little too easily yesterday, which is rarely a good sign.

I missed the great exodus but poro's wagon got to 50% easy but never made that true leap.
When you compare it to Yos's wagon and how quickly that blew up that's probably the biggest poro-scum ding I've seen. I'd like to get some time to really look at how that end wagon came up.

Unvote, Vote: Poro.

I'd also vote CDB in a heartbeat.

Dear masons please tell me you were hella active considering that without question one of you was dead.

Also that hammer off the back of juls question and the justification of Yos ignoring it is soemthing I realllly want to look at closer.

There may be 2 in CDB, Poro, math

[Sotty7]

@Sotty

, I know you're town and all, but cut me some slack on the Yos thing. If you really thought Poro was obvScum you'd be voting him right now. His wagon looked to be coming together a little too easily yesterday, which is rarely a good sign.

The fact I'm not currently voting Poro now has nothing to do with how bad your push on Yos was. I'm not sure what argument you're trying to make here.

[mathcam]

I hammered because (a) there were less than 24 hours left until deadline and the town had expressed a clear preference for that lynch over the poro lynch, and (b) after a game full of me actively thinking Yos was town, I had last-minute psyched myself up into thinking Yos was scum, and got eager to know for sure. I probably could've waited a few more hours, but the Yoslynch was pretty inevitable at that point.

There may be 2 in CDB, Poro, math

I don't disagree. Still, poro first, then we re-evaluate.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Lynch mathcam VitaminR and CDB. I will not stray from this course no matter what.

[mathcam]

Interesting. How did porochaz disappear from that list?

[Bookitty]

Do you think ABR is scum, mathcam?

I looked at Sotty's link and OGML's comments on that page and.. yeah, that's exactly why I thought he was scum too, just without the knowledge that STD was scum at the time.

VOTE: ChannelDelibird

[undo]

*sigh* why don't I trust my gut more

Dear masons please tell me you were hella active considering that without question one of you was dead.

Sotty and Juls were, and I must apologize them for my low activity. It's been some tough weeks for me lately, but I'm doing the best I can to keep up.

I'll sheep Juls on this.

Unvote, vote Yosarian

This looks really bad in hindsight.

This looks really bad at this moment. I mean, going after ABR now, really?

Oh, and your vote on Yosarian was terrible not because it was a hammer, but because of the unnatural, half-assed justification you felt the need to coat it with.

VOTE: mathcam

[Albert B. Rampage]

Can we lynch CDB first?

[mathcam]

Do you think ABR is scum, mathcam?

No. But it's up in the air enough that if we get down to say, a 5-player lynch or lose scenario, he's definitely not getting a free pass from me.

undo:

a) You've seen me "go after" ABR in this game. That was not me going after ABR by a far stretch.

b) I disagree with that characterization entirely, but I'm not sure there's much either of us could say here to sway the other. The

reason

for the hammer was the position of the game -- the post in which I hammered only explained why I was starting to feel better about our hit chances of hitting scum with a Yos lynch. I don't see anything unnatural or half-assed about those justifications, but I concede they fall short of a compelling argument (which they were never intended to be).

[mathcam]

...you guys would be lynching Prozac whether or not I had caught up in tim... That absolutely should be corrected Today, and I will be looking back to see where the key derailments of that wagon were.

Gotta say this was definitely a factor:

I'll iso Prozac tomorrow to be sure but I'll probably be voting for him then.

One more vote could've really made the difference.

[Green Crayons]

Myself and Juls managed to get a pretty good dialog going these last few hours and she founds some good stuff on OGML+STD partnership. OGML pretty much ignores the push on STD and just blankets him with a "soild town" read ever since replacing in but with no explanation at any point.

When pressure moves towards OGML wagon STD comes in and votes CES.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... start=2600

Walking myself through this.

Votecount

Cogito Ergo Sum (5) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty, DrippingGoofball, mathcam
VitaminR (1) -- undo
DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife
Sotty7 (1) -- SpyreX
Yosarian2 (4) -- Albert B. Rampage, VitaminR, chamber, Cogito Ergo Sum

Not voting: MrBuddyLee
17 alive, 9 to lynch.

This was the vote count 26 posts / 2 hours before STD voted CES. Things look pretty good from where STD is sitting: DGB (STD's main "suspicion") is a viable lynch, but there's a competing bandwagon with CES town. The next big wagon is on Yos town.

In the 26 posts from Patrick's vote count to STD's CES vote:
- Discussion was mostly about a CES lynch and CES having a history of being mislynched.
- Chamber vote on OGML.
- DGB vote on OGML.
- ABR vote on OGML.

STD does vote CES (relatively) immediately after the one-two-three votes on OGML, but before his vote, the vote count was (my tallying):

DrippingGoofball (5) -- petroleumjelly, Porochaz, Save the Dragons, Green Crayons, OhGodMyLife
Cogito Ergo Sum (4) -- Sotty7, Yosarian2, Bookitty, mathcam (DGB jumped off)
OGML (3) -- chamber, DGB, ABR
Yosarian2 (2) -- VitaminR, Cogito Ergo Sum (ABR and chamber jumped off)
VitaminR (1) -- undo
Sotty7 (1) -- SpyreX

STD's vote switch from DGB to CES shifted the balance of the leading bandwagon, but from one town to another town. Why do this?

- My first thought is because STD was playing selfishly: he didn't want his main suspicion (DGB) to get lynched because that'd show his suspicions were bad, and then he'd have to do more work on manufacturing new suspicions on a new player. Much easier to have his go-to target survive so he could keep beating that drum.

- My second thought is because STD was concerned about the wagon lineup: if DGB or CES was going to get lynched, the target with the fewer scum on it would be better. DGB's wagon had, other than STD before he switched, unconfirmed alignment Porochaz and OGML. CES's wagon had, other than STD after he switched, unconfirmed alignment Bookitty (but 80% likely town) and mathcam. This theory of STD's play makes mathcam look better.

- Third reason would be because of what you're suggesting: STD was looking to distract folks from the chamber/DGB/ABR voting block on OGML.

Throwing a vote into the mix, just to break up a volley of votes on another player, may certainly help break the momentum of the votes. STD's wordless vote, not being justified, does support this theory. The timing and lack of explanation does make it appear like STD was focused more on the optics of the situation and less about the "merits" of a CES lynch.

But I'm not entirely sure how this particular vote -- which switched the leading bandwagon from one town to the another town -- would have worked to undermine the OGML interests. The CES voters would feel more secure in their vote, feeling like their wagon was finally in the lead (plausible)? But then the DGB voters would feel like their wagon was losing steam, and might look elsewhere, including at OGML. So that's sort of a net zero gain in terms of trying to indirectly help OGML.


Current conclusion: it's a possibility that STD was trying to derail the OGML votes. I'm open to a CDB lynch.

Question: was the chamber/DGB/ABR voting block a thing before the OGML votes? I recall some in-voting between DGB and ABR on D2, but I can't recall whether they set those differences aside by the time the OGML votes occurred.

[Green Crayons]

- My second thought is because STD was concerned about the wagon lineup: if DGB or CES was going to get lynched, the target with the fewer scum on it would be better. DGB's wagon had, other than STD before he switched, unconfirmed alignment Porochaz and OGML. CES's wagon had, other than STD after he switched, unconfirmed alignment Bookitty (but 80% likely town) and mathcam. This theory of STD's play makes mathcam look better.

I will say, that if we lynch Porochaz or OGML/CDB today, and that player is town, this theory of STD's play would point to the other, non-lynched player as being scum. If the lynched player were to flip red, I think this theory of STD's play is null as to the other, non-lynched player's alignment. (That is, this theory has no basis to determine whether 2 or 3 scum were on the DGB wagon at the time STD switched to CES.)

[Bookitty]

Okay, I just did a quick reread of DGB in ISO. (I did check a few things to see what she was responding to, but I didn't reread the game entire.) She was convinced that mathcam was scum and said he should have been our lynch yesterday.

Yos had the opposing viewpoint at the end of the day yesterday, though. He felt that the only way that mathcam could be scum is if he was scum with Porochaz, because mathcam said that if Poro flipped town, he would look more closely at interactions between VitR and Yos and that Poro-town implied Yos-town.

Mathcam, what is your opinion of Porochaz, including a rough percentage of certainty for that read? What is your read on VitaminR, given Yos's town flip?

Porochaz, same question regarding mathcam, please.

ChannelDelibird, I'm pretty sure it's not 3 AM now, so can you weigh in?

VitaminR, now that Yos has flipped town, can you provide some comments/revised reads (or the same reads, if they have not changed)? Same question for MBL, please.

[VitaminR]

Sorry Yos, guess we gave each other a hard time over nothing. I really thought I was in the right there.

[MrBuddyLee]

Hey chamber, got a read on the Delibird yet?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Sorry Yos, guess we gave each other a hard time over nothing. I really thought I was in the right there.

You tunnelled like crazy on Yosarian despite no one else listening to you, and this is what you have to say? Sorry Yos? What about sorry town? Do you think the town deserves an apology?

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'm not happy about the state of affairs.

[Bookitty]

I'm not crazy about the way VitaminR and MBL just ignored my question. But I guess that's sort of an answer in itself.

[VitaminR]

Sotty has a point about the StD-OGML thing, but it feels like reading a lot into not very much. That said, given the Yos flip, I'm starting to doubt my CDB town read a little bit and I agree that he hasn't necessarily looked all that town.

GC, I'm a bit confused by Post 4038. You seem to spend the whole post saying that StD could have lots of different reasons for voting CES at that point, yet you come to the conclusion that you're open to lynching CDB.

You tunnelled like crazy on Yosarian despite no one else listening to you, and this is what you have to say? Sorry Yos? What about sorry town? Do you think the town deserves an apology?

This is an odd post. I don't mean the asinine attempt at guilting me, but it's a really strange way to talk to the person you claim to think is scum.

[VitaminR]

VitaminR, now that Yos has flipped town, can you provide some comments/revised reads (or the same reads, if they have not changed)? Same question for MBL, please.

GC looks a bit scummier to me, if only because I thought my scum read on Yos made him likely town. I'm also starting to feel like I could have been wrong to read mathcam and CDB town. I still think MBL is town, though, even if his case on Yos turned out to be as misguided as mine. It felt like he sincerely believed he was onto something.

[Porochaz]

Ill be doing my isos today at work/after work depending on how busy it gets.

[Sotty7]

Sotty has a point about the StD-OGML thing, but it feels like reading a lot into not very much.

Welcome to mafia. What's your CDBtown read based on?

Mathcam, any updates to this post?