Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[acryon]

I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?

[farside22]

I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?

Amy.

[acryon]

I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?

Amy.

It's pretty good. Specifically, I really don't like Amy's complete disappearance at the end of D1. She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out. The fact that Beli mentioned the rule of 3 on Amy's 543 is very interesting, especially reading back over it now. It's also interesting that he mentioned the rule of three, and then rather than voting the one person who is definitely scum in his scenario (Amy), he went for the 50/50 (in his spot) of CKD/Chaos. The fact that he didn't push for Amy in that situation is certainly suspicious.

I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts today.

[ChannelDelibird]

Probably not going to have the time today to put up the full version of the reasons behind my Amy vote and would prefer that judgement largely be withheld until I can elucidate on Yesterday's bullet-points. Tomorrow will be busy as well (parental visit) but hopefully have time to do it then; Thursday if not.

In the meantime - yes, Titus, farside is obvtown. I also think that CKD is a reasonably unlikely Belibuddy and is not a good vote Today.

acryon - how do you reconcile suddenly deciding that my predecessor was a 'likely buddy' for Belisarius with your remarkthat my entry to the game (including huge case on Belisarius) was "super town"?

[acryon]

acryon - how do you reconcile suddenly deciding that my predecessor was a 'likely buddy' for Belisarius with your remarkthat my entry to the game (including huge case on Belisarius) was "super town"?

This is very embarassing. I am in another game with chaos and clearly mixed them up, so I didn't realize you were him.

Will obviously have to look things over again.

[acryon]

Ok, now that I have gotten my head straight, I am certainly feeling a lot less scummy about Chaos/ChannelDelibird. A lot of what Chaos was doing lacked much real content, which can be attributed to either inattentive town or scum. I chose to think it was scum based on Beli's flip, as well as the overall interaction between the two. Given that I now once again realize that ChannelDelibird is the slot, I think it makes a lot more sense that Chaos was operating as inattentive town. By adding in ChannelDelibird's content, which I thought and still think was very town, I ultimately have the slot as lean-town. I would say Amy is my biggest scum-read at the moment.

Forgive my major mistake. Thankfully Bird stopped me before I kept going.

[TobyLoby]

I don't know how much to take from Beli's play yesterday. There was a distinct point where he seemed to give up when he called Amy scum and voted for CKD and the rest was probably wifom.

I looked up Beli's meta and he's okay with busing. He doesn't seem to bus outright early though, and not without there being reason to do so. This kinda makes me want to eliminate farside.

Beli mainly communicated and responded to me yesterday. This makes me think he may have actively engaged more so with townies. But for d1 play, this kinda makes me want to eliminate Amy. Amy and farside were his main engagements and communications the first day.

[acryon]

I don't know how much to take from Beli's play yesterday. There was a distinct point where he seemed to give up when he called Amy scum and voted for CKD and the rest was probably wifom.

I looked up Beli's meta and he's okay with busing. He doesn't seem to bus outright early though, and not without there being reason to do so. This kinda makes me want to eliminate farside.

Beli mainly communicated and responded to me yesterday. This makes me think he may have actively engaged more so with townies. But for d1 play, this kinda makes me want to eliminate Amy. Amy and farside were his main engagements and communications the first day.

Maybe it's just because I hate putting stock in meta play, especially a player who is capable of actively avoiding adhering to a specific way of playing that exists in their meta, but I don't like the idea of eliminating anyone as a result of meta-reads on Beli.

[Riddleton]

To be fair, I like your cases on Amy. A quick question though, Do you think Beli would be the kind of scum to vote their teammate, or say that his teammate should be lynched at L-1?

[Riddleton]

I also think that CKD is a reasonably unlikely Belibuddy and is not a good vote Today.

Is your conclusion that CKD is an unlikely Belibuddy, because of Beli's post condemning him? Personally, I don't understand that and if I was at L-1 as scum, I would condemn one of my partners to be 'lynched' for WiFOM purposes. It's also fairly standard for scum to always read one of their partners as scum 90% of the time.

[Riddleton]

You've won a sheep. But I'd still like you to answer my questions if possible.

UNVOTE: CKD
VOTE: AFF

[TobyLoby]

Acyron, you are free to provide me evidence, which would have to be meta evidence, that Beli is capable of actively avoiding adhering to a specific play. The only one I meta read out of that was farside too. Do you believe farside deserves more looking into?

[acryon]

Acyron, you are free to provide me evidence, which would have to be meta evidence, that Beli is capable of actively avoiding adhering to a specific play.

I just strongly dislike meta-reading, as in my experience, it does more to misdirect than anything else. This applies doubly for Beli IMO, because at the very least his slot in this game was a bit of a wild-card page-to-page. He just seems to me like someone who, as a target of it, would make meta-analysis even worse.

The only one I meta read out of that was farside too. Do you believe farside deserves more looking into?

No, not at the moment. Farside is in my town right now.

[ChannelDelibird]

Of course I will happily answer questions when I have time to do so, Riddleton; no intention of leaving the CKD read without backing it up. Just would rather get the read out there first and get you doing something more useful with your vote and then follow up with why when I am able to do so - want to get a post up collating everything I think we can draw from the Beli flip.

[Titus]

@Farside, I'm not referring to the ultimate end wagon. I'm looking at Beli's first hard defense. Beli hard defended Hiraki's replaceout as null and voted you for wanting to solve that. I could see scum wanting to tear you down for doing something logically unsound but at that point in the game voting you seems a little over the top.

@curious, I can agree on akyon but I'm not certain why. Toby's probably town though. I had the same gut feeling about akryon when reading over the end of day yesterday.

[TobyLoby]

I just strongly dislike meta-reading, as in my experience, it does more to misdirect than anything else. This applies doubly for Beli IMO, because at the very least his slot in this game was a bit of a wild-card page-to-page. He just seems to me like someone who, as a target of it, would make meta-analysis even worse.

People were discussing his meta yesterday.

Titus is trying to wade through what the wifom means today

But my metaing on what sort of busing Beli does is that gets your goat?

[scrambles]

I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?

Amy.

It's pretty good. Specifically, I really don't like Amy's complete disappearance at the end of D1. She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out. The fact that Beli mentioned the rule of 3 on Amy's 543 is very interesting, especially reading back over it now. It's also interesting that he mentioned the rule of three, and then rather than voting the one person who is definitely scum in his scenario (Amy), he went for the 50/50 (in his spot) of CKD/Chaos. The fact that he didn't push for Amy in that situation is certainly suspicious.

I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts today.

I'm not sure taking anything beli did as indicative of alignment is a smart move. He was very slippery from the start. (plus I have kind of a pr read on amy, so)

[farside22]

I'm going to put my own case today on Amy some of it is part impression and some is interaction.
I also think looking at those that beli didn't interact with would be good. I notice if not bussing, scum typically avoid interaction with scum buddy.
Toby: did you notice if beli interacted with his scum buddy?

[farside22]

I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?

Amy.

It's pretty good. Specifically, I really don't like Amy's complete disappearance at the end of D1. She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out. The fact that Beli mentioned the rule of 3 on Amy's 543 is very interesting, especially reading back over it now. It's also interesting that he mentioned the rule of three, and then rather than voting the one person who is definitely scum in his scenario (Amy), he went for the 50/50 (in his spot) of CKD/Chaos. The fact that he didn't push for Amy in that situation is certainly suspicious.

I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts today.

I'm not sure taking anything beli did as indicative of alignment is a smart move. He was very slippery from the start. (plus I have kind of a pr read on amy, so)

So who is your current scum read and why?

[acryon]

I just strongly dislike meta-reading, as in my experience, it does more to misdirect than anything else. This applies doubly for Beli IMO, because at the very least his slot in this game was a bit of a wild-card page-to-page. He just seems to me like someone who, as a target of it, would make meta-analysis even worse.

People were discussing his meta yesterday.

Titus is trying to wade through what the wifom means today

But my metaing on what sort of busing Beli does is that gets your goat?

Well things were different yesterday, for one. Although I still don't like it, meta-analysis of a living player is a lot different than on a dead player, because at least the former can get a response. Two, the other meta discussions weren't really eliminating other people as potential suspects, especially one that is a hot topic at the moment. I wasn't so much wanting to hate on your meta play as much as I wanted to dissuade you from using it as your reason to let Amy free for the moment.

[scrambles]

I'm going to put my own case today on Amy some of it is part impression and some is interaction.

I also think looking at those that beli didn't interact with would be good

. I notice if not bussing, scum typically avoid interaction with scum buddy.
Toby: did you notice if beli interacted with his scum buddy?

I was actually just about to say this. Slippery players tend to mention their scummates very little in comparison to others. I'm gunna try to take a look once I have some free time and make a 'mention' count.

[acryon]

I'm not sure taking anything beli did as indicative of alignment is a smart move. He was very slippery from the start. (plus I have kind of a pr read on amy, so)

I completely agree with being very cautious when dealing with the actions of a player that was such a wild-card. I just thought it was interesting, and possibly worth taking into consideration.

[scrambles]

I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?

Amy.

It's pretty good. Specifically, I really don't like Amy's complete disappearance at the end of D1. She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out. The fact that Beli mentioned the rule of 3 on Amy's 543 is very interesting, especially reading back over it now. It's also interesting that he mentioned the rule of three, and then rather than voting the one person who is definitely scum in his scenario (Amy), he went for the 50/50 (in his spot) of CKD/Chaos. The fact that he didn't push for Amy in that situation is certainly suspicious.

I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts today.

I'm not sure taking anything beli did as indicative of alignment is a smart move. He was very slippery from the start. (plus I have kind of a pr read on amy, so)

So who is your current scum read and why?

Currently, it's acryon and CKD. Mainly because I think their posts make a lot of sense. Does anyone know these players? Are they naturally very intelligent?

[scrambles]

I'm not sure taking anything beli did as indicative of alignment is a smart move. He was very slippery from the start. (plus I have kind of a pr read on amy, so)

I completely agree with being very cautious when dealing with the actions of a player that was such a wild-card. I just thought it was interesting, and possibly worth taking into consideration.

Not a problem, do what you gotta do. I'll just try to control myself because I tend to get paranoid, which leads to overanalyzing meta lol. It's really more of a personal problem.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not wanting to draw conclusions from Belisarius after his scumflip is anti-town, full stop. Scum always tell us things, whether they mean to or not, and "slippery" players don't get lynched for blatantly not giving a shit about the town. Dead scum are the best resource at our disposal outside of role results.