Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)


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Post Post #925 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:00 am

Post by acryon »

In post 923, scrambles wrote:
In post 921, acryon wrote:
In post 916, scrambles wrote:I'm not sure taking anything beli did as indicative of alignment is a smart move. He was very slippery from the start. (plus I have kind of a pr read on amy, so)

I completely agree with being very cautious when dealing with the actions of a player that was such a wild-card. I just thought it was interesting, and possibly worth taking into consideration.


Not a problem, do what you gotta do. I'll just try to control myself because I tend to get paranoid, which leads to overanalyzing meta lol. It's really more of a personal problem.

For sure. I think it is a problem for a lot of people. I don't think meta is necessarily completely useless, but its overemphasis has definitely ruined many towns. I tend to just avoid it completely, because it's easy to get sucked into meta-analysis and lose site of the context of the game.
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Post Post #926 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:05 am

Post by acryon »

In post 924, ChannelDelibird wrote:Not wanting to draw conclusions from Belisarius after his scumflip is anti-town, full stop. Scum always tell us things, whether they mean to or not, and "slippery" players don't get lynched for blatantly not giving a shit about the town. Dead scum are the best resource at our disposal outside of role results.

Ugh, post just got deleted.

Basically, I dislike meta-analysis, as I've said. However, I completely believe in analyzing the in-game actions of a lynched player. In the case of Beli, since he was such an apparent wild-card, I do think it would be wise for us to proceed with a bit of caution regarding things we think we may have found, lest we get caught on a path he intended for us to take...
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Post Post #927 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:10 am

Post by Riddleton »

In post 925, acryon wrote:
For sure. I think it is a problem for a lot of people. I don't think meta is necessarily completely useless, but its overemphasis has definitely ruined many towns. I tend to just avoid it completely, because it's easy to get sucked into meta-analysis and lose site of the context of the game.


I agree with this post. Meta can lead to a lot of town mislynches. I don't rely on it too much but it is a useful resource. IT shouldn't be discarded entirely.
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Post Post #928 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:30 am

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I'm not metaing his interactions with Amy. I was looking at his interactions with others vs his interaction with me. I've already said that.

Beli's play D2 is probably mostly all wifom from the point he voted CKD while basing it on Amy scum. The best of his interactions when he wasn't trying to purposely throw the town into wifom land was D1.

When you look at wifom for intent, you have to make a decision on what Beli may or may have been doing. What was he obscuring? Was he obscuring anything? Did he mention his buddies for wifom? Did he not mention them at all? You think his wifoming with Amy leads to her being scum. Titus thinks something else that was probably wifom Beli said makes it likely he didn't include scum in his own list.

I've had a scum buddy, having obviously going to be lynched the next day, have their plan be that day to call me town and argue it to their death. Did that happen here with Chaos? I don't know.

farside, I'll get back to you on that in a moment.
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Post Post #929 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:42 am

Post by scrambles »

In post 928, TobyLoby wrote:I'm not metaing his interactions with Amy. I was looking at his interactions with others vs his interaction with me. I've already said that.

Beli's play D2 is probably mostly all wifom from the point he voted CKD while basing it on Amy scum. The best of his interactions when he wasn't trying to purposely throw the town into wifom land was D1.

When you look at wifom for intent, you have to make a decision on what Beli may or may have been doing. What was he obscuring? Was he obscuring anything? Did he mention his buddies for wifom? Did he not mention them at all? You think his wifoming with Amy leads to her being scum. Titus thinks something else that was probably wifom Beli said makes it likely he didn't include scum in his own list.

I've had a scum buddy, having obviously going to be lynched the next day, have their plan be that day to call me town and argue it to their death. Did that happen here with Chaos? I don't know.

farside, I'll get back to you on that in a moment.


Is there are reason why you're internalizing this? As far as I can tell you were never mentioned at all.
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Post Post #930 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:45 am

Post by TobyLoby »

I was going to link the games I looked at, but I don't have a lot of time left to dedicate looking them up again and linking right now. From memory, Beli would mention his partners in reads lists and I know at least in one game he discussed with someone how he thought one buddy wasn't scum. So he wouldn't totally avoid them based on that. I would say he didn't tend to actively engage them, if anything.

Beli didn't make a reads list or interacted with a lot of people at all D1, so there is not a lot to glean there. It's probably best you re-look up meta if you're interested and see how your thoughts compare.

Right now my two top suspects are Chaos and Acyron based on wagon play D1. I'll talk more about this and reads in general later today. I have some conflicting opinions I want to sort out.
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Post Post #931 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:45 am

Post by scrambles »

Ah I see, it's because you had mentioned Beli previously. I actually agree with what you posted about the situation.
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Post Post #932 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 7:56 am

Post by acryon »

In post 930, TobyLoby wrote:I was going to link the games I looked at, but I don't have a lot of time left to dedicate looking them up again and linking right now. From memory, Beli would mention his partners in reads lists and I know at least in one game he discussed with someone how he thought one buddy wasn't scum. So he wouldn't totally avoid them based on that. I would say he didn't tend to actively engage them, if anything.

Beli didn't make a reads list or interacted with a lot of people at all D1, so there is not a lot to glean there. It's probably best you re-look up meta if you're interested and see how your thoughts compare.

See, here is the problem with meta. Unless you are looking at a larger sample size, you're essentially comparing apples to oranges. I would much rather look at an analysis of those he
did
interact with day 2 in this game, and how those people responded, and see what turns up. I don't have time for that today, but I will get to it tomorrow if someone hasn't already.
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Post Post #933 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:16 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

Personal principle - I always self hammer. Just putting that out there.

CDB is scum. Chaos (whom he replaced) showed some real associative tells with Belisarius. CDB is scum. Chaos dropped noobscum tells. CDB is scum. Chaos openly delayed posting. CDB is scum.
Vote: CDB
.

Kudos to both Beli and one of CDB's posts for instantly making everyone vote for me. I'm not even going to bother right now because clearly I'm getting lynched. Yes I'm giving up, yes it's bad, but I completely lose it when people vote me when I'm town. WIFOM alert, but as scum I tend to actually play to my wincon in these situations and try to get the wagon off me.
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Post Post #934 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:17 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

Beli was aware that he was going D1 or two so he decided to bring someone down with them.
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Post Post #935 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:20 am

Post by acryon »

In post 933, Amy Farrah Fowler wrote:I'm not even going to bother right now because clearly I'm getting lynched. Yes I'm giving up, yes it's bad, but I completely lose it when people vote me when I'm town. WIFOM alert, but as scum I tend to actually play to my wincon in these situations and try to get the wagon off me.

What? You're still only L-3... And this is just really stupid:
In post 933, Amy Farrah Fowler wrote:Personal principle - I always self hammer. Just putting that out there.

Dumbest personal principle I've ever heard. Either this is AtE or you need to re-evaluate your personal principles, because that is just so stupid.
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Post Post #936 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:21 am

Post by ChannelDelibird »

In post 933, Amy Farrah Fowler wrote:Personal principle - I always self hammer. Just putting that out there.


I am sitting here, slack-jawed, trying to comprehend any possible reason why you would have developed such a ridiculous personal tic, and coming up blank. Maybe, maybe, it's situationally relevant. As a blanket policy, it's playing against your wincon as
any
wincon and is against almost every mod's ruleset.

I'l address the rest when I have time but, I'm sorry, I have to objectively point out that this is
THE WORST THING
and you need to really, really rethink it.
#greenshirtthursdays
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Post Post #937 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:22 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

In post 902, acryon wrote:
In post 901, farside22 wrote:
In post 900, acryon wrote:
In post 899, farside22 wrote:I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?


Amy.

It's pretty good. Specifically, I really don't like Amy's complete disappearance at the end of D1. She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out. The fact that Beli mentioned the rule of 3 on Amy's is very interesting, especially reading back over it now. It's also interesting that he mentioned the rule of three, and then rather than voting the one person who is definitely scum in his scenario (Amy), he went for the 50/50 (in his spot) of CKD/Chaos. The fact that he didn't push for Amy in that situation is certainly suspicious.

I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts today.

complete disappearance
- lmao, in the nicest way possible fuck off with the complete disappearance. I didn't get prodded D1, so complete disappearance my ass.
'She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out.'
- How the fuck did I back out? I contributed the whole way through. If I had a read I posted it. If I didn't then I waited for new posts. I EXPLAINED ALL OF THIS WAY EARLIER.
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Post Post #938 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:25 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

In post 899, farside22 wrote:In regards to Amy, mostly she tunneled on beli day 1 and 2 and that's about all I can recall from her.

WAHAHA seriously...
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Post Post #939 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:26 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

I'm really pissed, I'll try posting later.
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Post Post #940 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:26 am

Post by acryon »

In post 937, Amy Farrah Fowler wrote:
In post 902, acryon wrote:
In post 901, farside22 wrote:
In post 900, acryon wrote:
In post 899, farside22 wrote:I still think scum bel would vote his scum buddy for town credit.
What did you think of bird's case?

But I don't think Beli's overall play this game wouldn't follow that.

Bird's case on who, specifically?


Amy.

It's pretty good. Specifically, I really don't like Amy's complete disappearance at the end of D1. She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out. The fact that Beli mentioned the rule of 3 on Amy's is very interesting, especially reading back over it now. It's also interesting that he mentioned the rule of three, and then rather than voting the one person who is definitely scum in his scenario (Amy), he went for the 50/50 (in his spot) of CKD/Chaos. The fact that he didn't push for Amy in that situation is certainly suspicious.

I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts today.

complete disappearance
- lmao, in the nicest way possible fuck off with the complete disappearance. I didn't get prodded D1, so complete disappearance my ass.
'She seemed to get in at the beginning, rack up some town-cred, and back out.'
- How the fuck did I back out? I contributed the whole way through. If I had a read I posted it. If I didn't then I waited for new posts. I EXPLAINED ALL OF THIS WAY EARLIER.

I mean just because you weren't prodded doesn't mean you didn't have a post from to which is 3 solid days with lots of discussion you could have taken part in. Kinda seems like a disappearance to me.
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Post Post #941 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:52 am

Post by TobyLoby »

In post 932, acryon wrote:See, here is the problem with meta. Unless you are looking at a larger sample size, you're essentially comparing apples to oranges. I would much rather look at an analysis of those he did interact with day 2 in this game, and how those people responded, and see what turns up. I don't have time for that today, but I will get to it tomorrow if someone hasn't already.


Out of all of his play, you decide to act on the part of it that was obviously wifom.

It's all wifom. He was purposely wifoming yesterday. He was probably wifoming about being a doctor and saving you N1 now that I know he is scum. I have reason to suspect that he either knew dry-fit was a pr or he was trying to fake being a pr in his conversation with dry-fit yesterday when he mentioned something about protecting.

You have to arbitrarily decide what about his wifom is useful. This isn't looking into how other people responded to his wifom, it's looking into his wifom like a crystal ball hoping to get a golden read.

You don't see the issue?
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Post Post #942 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:53 am

Post by TobyLoby »

In post 936, ChannelDelibird wrote:
I am sitting here, slack-jawed
, trying to comprehend any possible reason why you would have developed such a ridiculous personal tic, and coming up blank. Maybe, maybe, it's situationally relevant. As a blanket policy, it's playing against your wincon as any wincon and is against almost every mod's ruleset.

I'l address the rest when I have time but, I'm sorry, I have to objectively point out that this is THE WORST THING and you need to really, really rethink it.


I'm sure you weren't.
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Post Post #943 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:56 am

Post by acryon »

In post 941, TobyLoby wrote:
In post 932, acryon wrote:See, here is the problem with meta. Unless you are looking at a larger sample size, you're essentially comparing apples to oranges. I would much rather look at an analysis of those he did interact with day 2 in this game, and how those people responded, and see what turns up. I don't have time for that today, but I will get to it tomorrow if someone hasn't already.


Out of all of his play, you decide to act on the part of it that was obviously wifom.

It's all wifom. He was purposely wifoming yesterday. He was probably wifoming about being a doctor and saving you N1 now that I know he is scum. I have reason to suspect that he either knew dry-fit was a pr or he was trying to fake being a pr in his conversation with dry-fit yesterday when he mentioned something about protecting.

You have to arbitrarily decide what about his wifom is useful. This isn't looking into how other people responded to his wifom, it's looking into his wifom like a crystal ball hoping to get a golden read.

You don't see the issue?

I completely agree with this entire post, but you are talking about two different things. I was speaking directly to the problems of
meta
-play. This is not the same as wifom, so I'm not sure why you keep inter-changing the two in this discussion. WIFOM obviously has its own problems, and especially with a wild-card player like Beli, we need to proceed with caution. Again, I completely agree with everything you said in this post. It was the meta stuff I took issue with.
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Post Post #944 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:57 am

Post by TobyLoby »

Amy, saying you hammer as scum at L-1 creates wifom due to you possibly not hammering at that point before we even get to that point.
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Post Post #945 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 9:59 am

Post by TobyLoby »

Well, you already said it's wifom. But bleh.

My point is acyron, you are possibly heading into shit with either territory. I don't see engaging in wifom to be any better than meta reading someone's busing.
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Post Post #946 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:04 am

Post by acryon »

In post 945, TobyLoby wrote:Well, you already said it's wifom. But bleh.

My point is acyron, you are possibly heading into shit with either territory. I don't see engaging in wifom to be any better than meta reading someone's busing.

I guess to me I would rather operate on wifom where the information is contained directly in this game than try to compare to past games where the whole point is to deceive. But I completely understand where you're coming from, and honestly, I definitely have always had a strong distaste for meta, so it's probably mostly personal.
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Post Post #947 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:07 am

Post by TobyLoby »

I admit I am taking this personally for whatever reasoning. Blah blah.
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Post Post #948 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:07 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

Okay, right, let's try something rational.
First of all, let's take a look at the 'evidence' against me based off Belisarius's posts. Beli clearly knew he was going down at some point soon. That was certain. And he decided to bring people down with him. And I was the person he primarily wanted to do that to. So yes, I'm just pointing out that at some point Beli gave up on being mafia via survival and decided to drag people down with him. That was obvious, so don't play dumb.
Next, let's take a look at CDB's initial case against me.
Amy - started badly with a self-vote and has not been impressive since. All the more concerning that everyone was so keen to say how town she looked - the phrase "universal townread" has been bandied about, dangerously - and so allow her to slip into not actually doing very much for the town. More than one moment where it looks like she already knows people's alignments, next to no contribution when it mattered in the back half of day 1, voting Belisarius Today but barely looking as if she cares about it and happy to let conversation be dominated by a competing Chaos wagon rather than refocus onto the vote that she supposedly regrets not being around to push through Yesterday. To say nothing of the ridiculous hoops she's jumped through today to base her Beli vote on an elaborate triple scumread before we even have any flips. Yes, this is the condensed version of this read. We will be revisiting this in a big way on Day 3

The self vote was RVS and from the context one can see that. I don't like that bit, and I don't see why town would mention that. People's keenness to call me town wasn't something I can really affect, although I'm happy that some people read me correctly. I don't like the term 'universal townread' either, and I'm not claiming to be oh-so-town. I don't personally believe that I 'slipped' into not doing much. I like to get the ball rolling at RVS, and I think that was successful. Although maybe my posting volume at RVS was a mistake, as people made the assumption that that was my normal posting volume. This right now is more like what I'd say is my posting volume. I didn't have much to do at the start of the game, but I'm a student, therefore at some point I got a bigger workload and my activity levels lapsed. I didn't see any moment when '#I already knew people's alignments', although if you want to post some quotes then I'd be happy to respond. I wouldn't say I didn't care about my Belisarius vote. I cared as much as on D1, I reckon. I feel like the addition of 'didn't care' is just something you pulled out of a hat and stuck it on for the sake of it. I wanted to push the vote, but I hope you'll agree that there wasn't much more I could say at that point, and constantly repeating myself would get obnoxious. I was fine with the 'conversation being dominated' by a Chaos wagon. Great. People are talking about ANOTHER ONE OF MY SCUMREADS. I mean, surely I'll want to stop people from that.

And last but not least, I'm happy with my 'elaborate' triple scumread. It works, and I connected the dots that way, and we have one scum down.
You're scum #2, I know that much.
CKD has been slowly reducing in scumminess, although I'm not happy with that. I think I'm less inclined to scumread people who contribute a lot of non-fluff. But I'm still aware of the associative tell (or at least that's kind of how I interpreted it) and with Beli flipping scum, I'm going to point out that that's still out there.

If anyone has any more queries then I'm happy to answer them. Maybe this'll motivate me to be a bit more active and not 'skim through'.

(And I won't self-hammer, I agree with the principle of that being dumb in most circumstances. Rage post = moron post)
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Post Post #949 (ISO) » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:08 am

Post by Amy Farrah Fowler »

The above is a wall post, read it anyway.

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