Open 572: Nightless Vengeful Mayhem - Game Over

[Not_Mafia]

VC 3.12

Blair (0)-

Phillammon (3)-

Blair, Dyslexicon, Fink

(L-2)

shaddowez (0)-

Thor665 (1)-

acryon

droog (0)-

Fink (1)-

Pillammon

acryon (4)-

droog, Thor665, shaddowez, DCLVXI

(L-1)

Dyslexicon (0)-

DCLXVI (0)-

Not Voting (0)-

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2014-10-11 20:00:00)

- Oct 11th 19:00 GMT

[droog]

In post 722, Thor665 wrote:
If you want to affect the wagon you need to be talking to the people voting it, not the obv. votes that aren't placed yet.

I'm not terribly interested in defending Acryon, I think he's a perfectly reasonable lynch candidate. If anything, I'm hammer-curious myself. But his very reasonableness as a lynch candidate without any real thing defining that, and the speed with which his wagon took off are what worry me, and I think it's worth questioning him before he dies. I don't see why that's surprising at all. And getting his vote actually onto Phil would give others (you/Droog/adorable kitty roman numeral guy) some more leverage to also queston Phil. I think it's self-evident that talking to Acyron is the best use of my time right now.

In post 724, acryon wrote:
1. I think it is non-impossible, but quite unlikely that a Thor wagon could gain momentum, but I do think it is worth keeping my vote to send the message that I am serious about thinking he is scum, and I don't want to let him off the hook.

That message is obvious. Why is that more important to you than applying pressure to pressurable people? What do you think voting for Thor is actually accomplishing if you die when Phil comes back?

i lost whatever thought i originally had
duly noting it so i will remember later

the above is a bit contradictory regardless
"I think it's self-evident that talking to Acyron is the best use of my time right now."

when your use of that time is to talk meta

[Fink]

No one has really summed it up in one place. Even though I think he's a lesser scum read than Phil by a reasonable amount, I think he's got a higher than average (i.e. better than 25%) chance of being scum and so I think it's a reasonable lynch. He's also going to be completely useless even if he is town.

I guess I'll write up a summary of the main points against him for you, hold on a minute. (Assuming you don't mind a case from the least commited voter on the wagon.)

[droog]

blair

everyone realized that no one was terribly apposed to an acryno lynch

[Fink]

@ Droog: huh?

I asked Acryon a fuckton of questions NOT about theory. He answered them in ways that came across as scummy, and showed he had 0 interest in scumhunting. I'm still not sold on him being scum, but as I said, I think he's better than 25% right now, and I'm of the opinion that that should be the cutoff. Also, I spoilered the math crap for a reason. Why are you keen to throw out the non-math questions as talking theory?

[droog]

Why are you keen to throw out the non-math questions as talking theory?

you have to perform
mental gymnastics

to read my last few posts as 'keen' to put you in any light
you asked i answered

[Blair]

I guess I'll write up a summary of the main points against him for you, hold on a minute. (Assuming you don't mind a case from the least commited voter on the wagon.)

I don't mind at all.

Hopefully your summary will elicit responses from the stronger voters of "No, no that's not right!" and I'll get two or three summaries to review. That would be fantastic.

[Blair]

blair

everyone realized that no one was terribly apposed to an acryno lynch

I am mildly opposed: I liked his Thor push.

Let's see what Fink has.

[Fink]

@ Blair

The case on Acryon as I see it

Acryon has 0 interest in scumhunting.
He doesn't see any point in looking at his wagon and the way people got on it for scum influence. He doesn't want to ever vote for anyone besides Thor, even to help pressure people like active-lurking Phil to talk to us. He doesn't have any non-Thor related opinions. At no point has he attempted to make any more of an argument on why we should be voting for Thor, he's just happy to park his vote there. He knows naked reads don't help much, as he said so in url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 3#p6248583]post 136[/url].
His main reason for us not to vote for him is that we'd get more information out of a Phil or Dys lynch, but then he doesn't have any idea of what we'd get from that other than process of elimination.

Acryon has reads with no reasoning behind them.
We all know about the dumb Thor case he's been pushing over and over.
His reads on Shaddowez and XLVXI-whatever-it-is swapped when I asked him about who he suspected on his wagon. He hasn't given any reasoning for this. He never gave any reasoning for them to begin with, but he also is choosing not to explain now. It looks like there never

was

a reason for them.

It's not much, but I think having what look like made-up nonsense reads, when he has previously said that's useless, and him having 0 interest in looking for scum seem suspicious enough to put him above random-voting. And on top of that, even if he's town, he's shown he has no interest in being useful.

Like I said, I'm the weakest vote on him, but I think those are worthwhile, especially seeing as we can't get him or anyone else to vote Phil at the moment apparently.

[Fink]

post 136
Sorry, shouldn't have rushed that.

[Fink]

Additionally, why would you be willing to lynch Dyx? Naked reads don't help us much.

That might be more clear.

[Blair]

So basically you all dislike his Thor push for the same reason I like it: We all know it isn't going anywhere.

I'll agree he's tunnelling, though, which I don't like.

I don't have a case for acryon being Town, so I can live with this I guess. Honestly I'm just ready for something to happen (maybe the rapid fire days 1 and 2 spoiled me).

[Phillammon]

I am still opposed to an acryon lynch, but I'm guessing my opinion doesn't count at the moment.

[Phillammon]

(Blair's points on acryon are indeed accurate, and I can't come up with an immediate argument for his towniness either, I admit. But I can come up with people who are much scummier than acryon, which is enough for me at the moment)

[Fink]

So Phil, why aren't you voting for them? Or if you are, why haven't you explained your vote on me any of the times I've asked you?

[Fink]

@ Blair: This is the exachange that most convinced me Acryon doesn't give a shit about scumhunting. It's that he doesn't see the point at looking at his own wagon if he knows he's town.

To my mind, either 1. He is scum and so is making up scumhunting from whole cloth,
or 2. He just doesn't care to contribute anything but Thor tunnelling.

Droog made a good point that we can afford to cut the chaff right now, so since Phil doesn't seem to be going through, Acryon seems like a reasonable lynch to me. Especially as I think not caring about scumhunting is scummy.

In post 729, Fink wrote:

Who's the scummiest person on your wagon besides Thor?

If Phi flips scum, who is your top suspect?

If Phil flips town, who is your top suspect?


The scummiest person on my wagon besides Thor is probably DCLXVI. If Phil were to be lynched and flip scum, then our last scum is Thor. If he flips town, I think it's Thor and probably Dys or DCLXVI.

@acryon

Okay, but what

information

do we gain from lynching Phil then? Those sound like the same information we might have now, just with some more certainty of wrongness on someone's part.

If we lynch Phil and he flips town, in what way does that make DCLXVI seem more likely scum?

And it's not that I think Phil flipping town and DCLXVI being more scummy are directly correlated. It's more PoE at that point to me. DCLXVI is the most scummy after Thor, Dys, and Phil to me, so given Phil-town, by PoE, I think the remaining scum are Thor and either Dys or DCLXVI.

So in my opinion Shaddowez had by far the scummiest jump onto the Acryon wagon. DCLXVI came into the game, read it, and placed a vote on a non-existant wagon that turned out to be pretty damn viable, that doesn't seem scummy to me at all. Thor has been jumping at the bit to get a lynchable wagon going (something I don't actually read as scummy coming from him right now) and has never had much read on Acryon. I have 0 difficulty believing Thor would see Acryon as a viable lynch candidate and a perfectly reasonable compromise. Droog had been catching up on the last several days and saying for a while he needed to reevaluate things, when he came back, he moved his vote based on the other two responses and preferring Acryon to Phil I think. Shaddowez just kind of came and tagged on to a rapidly rising wagon to put it into lynch range.

IMO Scummiest-> Towniest looking only at how votes were placed on the Acryon-wagon is Shaddowez > Droog > Thor > DCLXVI

I'm really surprised Acryon isn't looking at this sort of thing

at all

and it certainly brings me closer to wanting to hammer him. Especially given that Acryon had Shaddowez as only a lean town before, while DCLXVI was a straight up town read. Acryon seems completely disinterested in explaining this, he seems to have 0 interest in scumhunting, just in pushing his one target.

He's never responded to that last post of mine, only to the theory part of it that I was stupid enough to engage with him on. He's ignored the main ooint.

[acryon]

@ Acryon

But you haven't explained thet non-nothing reason for your reads changing at all. You are dangling at the end of a rope here, you should probably do so.

And also, you fail math. Whether or not that makes you townie or scummy, how about you lay off saying things mathematically don't make sense.

Actually, there are assumptions being made either way, so it completely depends on what weight is applied to the assumptions. You just happened to put less weight on your's, presumably because our confidence levels aren't matching up.

Like where does this come from:

No one has really summed it up in one place. Even though I think he's a lesser scum read than Phil by a reasonable amount, I think he's got a higher than average (i.e. better than 25%) chance of being scum and so I think it's a reasonable lynch. He's also going to be completely useless even if he is town.

I guess I'll write up a summary of the main points against him for you, hold on a minute. (Assuming you don't mind a case from the least commited voter on the wagon.)

Certainly not a fool-proof statistical set of rules.

Given droog's logic about who is useful in the end makes sense, I'm okay with this. I want to give it some more time to talk/allow people to make a good point against this, but I'm okay with it. Even if Acryon isn't scum, he's not town that I would trust to make any important decision. He's just going to vote for Thor for the rest of the game.

I definitely didn't say I was going to vote for Thor the rest of the game, and the realization that there are no NKs/Deadlines certainly changes things as well.

And wow we got a big wall here, so let's cut them up 1 by 1.

@ Blair

The case on Acryon as I see it

Acryon has 0 interest in scumhunting.
He doesn't see any point in looking at his wagon and the way people got on it for scum influence.

Wrong. I said that I ranking people based on my []overall[/i] scum-reads of them, not just the way people got on my wagon. This overall read

includes

the way they got on my wagon. At no point did I say I saw no point in that. Never.

He doesn't want to ever vote for anyone besides Thor, even to help pressure people like active-lurking Phil to talk to us.

Wrong again. If I felt Phil needed more pressure, I would move my vote to him. As I've said before, you can vote for pressure or for intent-to-lynch. I am capable of both, but didn't find a circumstance where I thought the former was necessary so I stuck to the latter.

He doesn't have any non-Thor related opinions. At no point has he attempted to make any more of an argument on why we should be voting for Thor, he's just happy to park his vote there.

If you actually read my earlier posts about Thor, you would see I had more than one reason for voting for him. This is very reductive, but I believe he has been trying to manipulate town by controlling the conversation and subtly making blanket statements to set the tone how he wants it, and I believe the manner in which he kept his vote on wgerts and the reasoning for it were scum-motivated.

His main reason for us not to vote for him is that we'd get more information out of a Phil or Dys lynch, but then he doesn't have any idea of what we'd get from that other than process of elimination.

My main reason for you note to vote for me is because I'm town, but if you're going to lynch town anyways, it makes more sense to lynch someone who hasn't been focused on one player for most of the game.

His reads on Shaddowez and XLVXI-whatever-it-is swapped when I asked him about who he suspected on his wagon. He hasn't given any reasoning for this. He never gave any reasoning for them to begin with, but he also is choosing not to explain now. It looks like there never

was

a reason for them.

They did not swap. Did I include every detail of my reasoning for each read? No, but that's because I was answering a simple question, and my reads that supported the answer weren't particularly developed, so it didn't make sense to share them.

It's not much, but I think having what look like made-up nonsense reads, when he has previously said that's useless, and him having 0 interest in looking for scum seem suspicious enough to put him above random-voting. And on top of that, even if he's town, he's shown he has no interest in being useful.

I suppose when Thor flips scum or wins as scum, I'll look a little less useless in hindsight. In the mean-time, I plan on moving around my vote where it needs to go, given my play-style isn't helping town. Once I get a little further from the rope, I plan on showing you that.

[droog]

acryon, what do you make of fink

[acryon]

He's never responded to that last post of mine, only to the theory part of it that I was stupid enough to engage with him on. He's ignored the main ooint.

I did respond at the bottom of 749. I already agreed with you that he had the scummiest jump onto my wagon, but that doesn't mean he automatically becomes a major scum-read to me. Town can do things that look like scum, especially if that's already what you have in your mind regarding the person. It's possible that I am not putting enough weight on that reason, but I also think you may be putting too much weight. At the very least, it's not something I am going to forget about.

[acryon]

acryon, what do you make of fink

I think he is almost definitely town. He has been asking good questions since he came in with good follow-ups as well. Obviously he is wrong if he thinks I am scum, but I think his motives are right. I would be incredibly shocked if he wasn't town.

[Fink]

They did not swap. Did I include every detail of my reasoning for each read? No, but that's because I was answering a simple question, and my reads that supported the answer weren't particularly developed, so it didn't make sense to share them.

In the chance that I am getting lynched, my current reads are:
Blair - Lean-town
Phil - Lean-scum
Shadowz - Lean-town
Thor - Scum
droog - Town
Fink - Town
Dys - Lean-scum
DCLXVI - Town

To be fair, I said you

(DCLXVI)

were the scummiest person besides Thor on my wagon. You are still the 4th scummiest person I think, and not even very scummy. But I was asked who is most scummy on my wagon other than Thor, and neither Dys or Phil were on my wagon, so of droog, you, and Shadowz, I do think you are the scummiest, but that doesn't mean I feel strongly at all about you being scum.

I don't know when "Town" became scummier than "Lean-town", especially given how the two got on your wagon. You didn't include "every detail" of your reads because you didn't include

any

details of your reads. And it absolutely makes sense to share them, seeing as that's essentially the thing driving me to want to hammer you.

[Phillammon]

So Phil, why aren't you voting for them? Or if you are, why haven't you explained your vote on me any of the times I've asked you?

I have explained. Judging by the responses to your other points made in the next post, reading what people say rather than accusing them of not responding might be a good idea.

(Incidentally, may as well throw that on the pile. While I can see town motivations for trying to rile people up, I can see a hell of a lot more scum motivations for it)

[Dyslexicon]

Oh. Things happening. I need to make dinner, and then I'll be able to catch up.

[acryon]

They did not swap. Did I include every detail of my reasoning for each read? No, but that's because I was answering a simple question, and my reads that supported the answer weren't particularly developed, so it didn't make sense to share them.

In the chance that I am getting lynched, my current reads are:
Blair - Lean-town
Phil - Lean-scum
Shadowz - Lean-town
Thor - Scum
droog - Town
Fink - Town
Dys - Lean-scum
DCLXVI - Town

To be fair, I said you

(DCLXVI)

were the scummiest person besides Thor on my wagon. You are still the 4th scummiest person I think, and not even very scummy. But I was asked who is most scummy on my wagon other than Thor, and neither Dys or Phil were on my wagon, so of droog, you, and Shadowz, I do think you are the scummiest, but that doesn't mean I feel strongly at all about you being scum.

I don't know when "Town" became scummier than "Lean-town", especially given how the two got on your wagon. You didn't include "every detail" of your reads because you didn't include

any

details of your reads. And it absolutely makes sense to share them, seeing as that's essentially the thing driving me to want to hammer you.

When I was giving out my final reads list, it was mostly off the top of my head, with, as you noted, no real explanations, as I was expecting to be hammered any second. My Town call on DCLXVI specifically, was based on my memory of what I had just read of DCLXVI's posts. Dumb, but I didn't really take into account Bins' posting as I should have. When I was asked specifically about my wagon, I was able to re-evaluate and go over again, now that I knew I had time. I probably should have mentioned how my reads changed, and probably should have included reasoning in the later post, but I wasn't exactly cross-referencing my response with my last-ditch reads list.

That being said, if someone else made this "slip", I would think it was scummy, so it is what it is.

[Fink]

(Incidentally, may as well throw that on the pile. While I can see town motivations for trying to rile people up, I can see a hell of a lot more scum motivations for it)

And yet you have a town read on THOR of all people?