Open 566: Murder on the Oriental Express (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

^^^ For more precise wording: I understand that it's

possible

for CKD-scum to have gone whole-hog in on a reverse-bus, I just don't understand why you think that scenario is

more plausible

in this game than simply CKD-town being wrong about Beli-scum.

[Riddleton]

Hello GreenCrayons

To answer your question, yes I do believe CKD is attempting a reverse-bus at Belisarius. I also believe them to be partners for other reasons, too, which I'll explain below.

1) CKD is the kind of person to pick things apart. Focuses on the details a lot which can evidently be seen in posts like #578. I say this as it's useful in determining how he reads other people; CKD has never actually mentioned any thoughts or reads to back-up why he things Beli is town. He has made a few off-hand quips now and then, such as in #690 where he comments about 'the VC not adding up', and his comment in #450 where he comments on Beli's speech, but it is nothing substantial. Analysis is rare and scarce. Compare and contrast to his scumcase against Chaos in #687 and his case against Skelda in #272, where he goes into considerably more detail.

2) Another unrelated point, but definitely shows some synergy regardless; look at #549 and Beli's vote on CKD. Beli's comment about the Rule of Three is odd at the very least. I also find it unusual how that post specifically votes for 'curiouskarmadog' rather than 'CKD'. It's the choice of wording that bothers me, as most people would refer to him by shorthand as CKD. The long-name strikes me as unusual and 'forced' behaviour typically reminiscent of scum. CKD's awkward confusion afterwards also seems forced to me.

[Riddleton]

3) CKD's rant at #830. When I replied to it afterwards, I didn't quite catch onto what he was implying. But on careful examination, I do see a minor change of stance. He went from defending Beli, to complaining that he's a "horrible player" if he flipped town, at least vaguely implying he doesn't quite think Beli is town anymore. It strikes me as strange considering CKD has consistently been on the Beli-town stance throughout the whole game. The stance change is quite abrupt. The swearing and anger at him perceiving Beli to perhaps not be town after all is very different from his #563 regarding Skelda where it's quite the opposite. 'Well darn, he's town after all! Not to worry'.

[Riddleton]

CKD's awkward confusion afterwards also seems forced to me.

Sorry, I should have clarified. This is directed at post #563

[Riddleton]

Here are the links to the posts I have quoted for those who would rather me do that than use CTRL+F

Post #272
Post #450
Post #549
Post #563
Post #578
Post #687
Post #690
Post #830

[Baezu]

Vote Count 3.03

scrambles: (2) Titus, Green Crayons
Amy Farrah Fowler: (1) Riddleton
ChannelDelibird: (1) Amy Farrah Fowler

Not Voting: acryon, scrambles, Curiouskarmadog , TobyLoby, ChannelDelibird, Farside22

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2014-10-13 16:30:00)

Mod Notes:
None

[acryon]

VOTE: Titus
I want to hear you actually say

something

. What are your reads and, more importantly, why?

[Titus]

^^^ Nice chainsaw OMGUS discredit. I have done plenty. You should poke your buddy to respond to my allegation if you have daychat.

[acryon]

^^^ Nice chainsaw OMGUS discredit. I have done plenty. You should poke your buddy to respond to my allegation if you have daychat.

This wasn't a "I think your scum" vote, although I'm not ruling that out. It was a "please actually say something" vote. You haven't done anything. You have provided almost zero analysis or reasoning in any of your posts. You're all talk, which doesn't do anything for town.

[Green Crayons]

@Riddle:

I'm on the fence, but leaning towards not seeing it. I'll let CKD answer for himself and let y'all's conversation develop before I throw in my two cents, but I will say that I'm particularly keen on seeing CKD's response to your point #3.

[scrambles]

@acryon
ckd, ape, titus

Why are those players your scum read and why no vote?

And while I didnt think chaos was scum, delibird is reversing that.

Why?

I have massive arguments with players all the time. On my other site, im kinda known for it, and a lot of people call it detrimental.
however, normally in an argument like this I would say amy is town. Scum just dont argue this much or with such fervor.

I'm going to disagree. Anyone can fake arguments long enough to be previewed town.
More women I know are better at it then men.

Ckd- just the things he says. I dunno how else to put it. Comments that he makes come off as sensible and logical but easily defendable. He seems to agree with a lot of the things I say, and at other times he goes directly against them and tries to massage my opinions.He comes off as manipulative. There was also something he said earlier regarding my vote on Beli. IIRC he was saying that we should lynch other people because we would be able to get something from their flips but that Beli's flip wouldn't give us any new info. Beli was conf scum imo. There was no reason to look for someone to lynch based on associative flips. Like I said, it comes off as sensible, but manipulative.

Ape- because of his play eary on in the game. Just felt like a lot of non-participation. Though, Green Crayon is looking a lot better. I liked his direction with attacking me, which I felt was a pretty good case (even though it's wrong). It probably took a lot of effort. Most of it is wifom, but I don't see any real scum motivation behind it. He's trying to figure me out, and what my motivations are. He hasn't asked me any direct questions, which I thought was weird, but I could see a town getting fed up with my non-participation and just going through my posts for any crumbs he can find.

Titus- I dunno. Maybe I'm just sore because he's antagonizing me, but I get a bad feeling from how he's approaching me. Saying that I'm lying when I'm not, saying I'm avoiding him. These are typical "buzzwords" for creating lynch opportunities. Who can blame anyone for lynching a liar? It's a meta rule! He's trying to brand me as something that's untrue and that comes off as scum to me.

Have you read CDB in the last day?

@lastcomment
Eh, that's your opinion. Anyone can just say words and argue back but the emotions behind it are different. I don't understand how people can't see it. Maybe I'm just more empathic, but I can tell the difference between scum flailing and town being fed up.

[scrambles]

Oh, and I'm just not sure who to vote for.
So far I have
Amy town
Toby town
acryon town (still evaluating but leaning town)
Farside town (same deal with acryon)

My choices for scum are narrowed between
CKD
Titus
somewhat CDB

Null on
Greencrayon
riddleton

[Green Crayons]

@scrambles:

just because I didn't ask you a direct question doesn't mean you can't respond to my case in any direct manner. As is, it looks like your response is "wifom." Confirm/Deny?

-----

Reread the past 15 pages.

- CDB is my second vote choice for reasons stated in Toby's Post 951. I recognize the "defend stupid town to get townie points" scum play that farside pointed out, but Bel's play was super weird (undoubtedly on purpose) in this game and I don't want to read too much into what he did or did not do/say/vote. I think more useful analysis will come out of how other players acted (or failed to act) towards Beli.


- Still not keen on the Amy vote. I'm unclear why CDB unvoted Amy in Post 1046.

@CDB:

What in particular are you rethinking? Why does it require an unvote?


- I don't care for acryon's interaction with Titus. acryon has been slowly but consistently ramping up his beef with Titus (compare Post 877, where Titus's Beli-hammer "isn't exactly scummy" with Post 1083, where Titus has already started shifting his Titus-vote from a motivational vote into a voting-for-scum vote). And he's gone out of his way to get into conflict with Titus (Post 998 and Post 1003).

Yo, acryon. We get it. You don't like how Titus is playing. Unless if you want to vote Titus because you think she is scum, I'm going to consider your "motivational" vote to be suspicious in light of the fact that we already have a flipped scum (best source of info) and it's Day 3 (plenty of material to work off of). That is, your vote makes you look active and engaged, but you aren't actively engaging in scum hunting.

[Titus]

@Scrambles, no response to me calling you a liar?

Why yhe changes inreads? Particularly acryon?

[scrambles]

I didn't think there was anything to respond to.
You've made your point, I think it's wrong, but what is there to argue?
Was there something specifically you wanted me to comment on?

[scrambles]

@Scrambles, no response to me calling you a liar?

Why yhe changes inreads? Particularly acryon?

What did I lie about?
What change did I make in acryon?

[Titus]

@Scrambles, How about explaining you only have one game finished and have those be true?

The reads that shifted between your last wall. Why?

[Titus]

Hos curious
I definitely did not say anything about chaos being scum. You are putting words in my mouth and trying to shame me into voting him.
in my experience, scum like to ramp townies up til the edge and then bus other townies to make for easy combos.

Instead of playing into that game, im voting for my scum read.
lastly, it is disbanding. I can see people starting to focus on other reasonably suspicious people pike skelda. I dont think reasonably suspicious people are ever good lunches. Both chaos and skelda do the reasonably suspicious profile. Imo those are bad lynches.

Lol this is one of my favorite games in a while

These two posts strongly imply you have played more than one game that just ended Tuesday. I do not like being lied to.

Explain how these are consistent.

[scrambles]

@Scrambles, How about explaining you only have one game finished and have those be true?

The reads that shifted between your last wall. Why?

Not sure what you're saying in the first line.
I called acryon a scumread with the caveat being that it was because I found his posts to make a lot of sense. In that time I decided that he is simply a smart player.

[scrambles]

Hos curious
I definitely did not say anything about chaos being scum. You are putting words in my mouth and trying to shame me into voting him.
in my experience, scum like to ramp townies up til the edge and then bus other townies to make for easy combos.

Instead of playing into that game, im voting for my scum read.
lastly, it is disbanding. I can see people starting to focus on other reasonably suspicious people pike skelda. I dont think reasonably suspicious people are ever good lunches. Both chaos and skelda do the reasonably suspicious profile. Imo those are bad lynches.

Lol this is one of my favorite games in a while

These two posts strongly imply you have played more than one game that just ended Tuesday. I do not like being lied to.

Explain how these are consistent.

No, how about you explain to me how it's inconsistent.

[acryon]

- I don't care for acryon's interaction with Titus. acryon has been slowly but consistently ramping up his beef with Titus (compare Post 877, where Titus's Beli-hammer "isn't exactly scummy" with Post 1083, where Titus has already started shifting his Titus-vote from a motivational vote into a voting-for-scum vote). And he's gone out of his way to get into conflict with Titus (Post 998 and Post 1003).

Yo, acryon. We get it. You don't like how Titus is playing. Unless if you want to vote Titus because you think she is scum, I'm going to consider your "motivational" vote to be suspicious in light of the fact that we already have a flipped scum (best source of info) and it's Day 3 (plenty of material to work off of). That is, your vote makes you look active and engaged, but you aren't actively engaging in scum hunting.

I don't like when people throw out accusations, and presumably gain town-cred as appearing to scum-hunt, while not actually saying anything. I also fail to see how a pressure vote isn't acceptable simply because we have a flipped scum and its day 3.

I would rather simply put on a pressure vote on someone that claim scum at this point, because my goal is to get real information from Titus, not to invoke some defensive response.

[Riddleton]

VOTE: CKD

I'm happier back with CKD.

[Green Crayons]

@scrambles:

I didn't think there was anything to respond to.
You've made your point, I think it's wrong, but what is there to argue?
Was there something specifically you wanted me to comment on?

You said:

Ape- because of his play eary on in the game. Just felt like a lot of non-participation. Though, Green Crayon is looking a lot better. I liked his direction with attacking me, which I felt was a pretty good case (

even though it's wrong

). It probably took a lot of effort.

Most of it is wifom

, but I don't see any real scum motivation behind it.

He's trying to figure me out, and what my motivations are.

He hasn't asked me any direct questions, which I thought was weird, but I could see a town getting fed up with my non-participation and

just going through my posts for any crumbs he can find

.

There's plenty you could actually follow up with in here, as bolded:
- Why am I wrong?
- Where's the WIFOM? Is that really your entire defense: "yeah, I could have done all of this as scum, but I could also have done all of this as town"?
- Apparently I have your motivations incorrect. What were your motivations for the particularly scummy actions I pointed out?
- So why aren't these "crumbs" I found correct?

[Green Crayons]

@acryon:

I don't like when people throw out accusations, and presumably gain town-cred as appearing to scum-hunt, while not actually saying anything. I also fail to see how a pressure vote isn't acceptable simply because we have a flipped scum and its day 3.

I would rather simply put on a pressure vote on someone that claim scum at this point, because my goal is to get real information from Titus, not to invoke some defensive response.

A pressure vote, in the abstract, isn't unacceptable.

Your

pressure vote, which appears to be part of a long-running issue you have with Titus's play, is suspicious because you're not doing any actually scumhunting in addition to your Titus complaints.

[acryon]

@acryon:

I don't like when people throw out accusations, and presumably gain town-cred as appearing to scum-hunt, while not actually saying anything. I also fail to see how a pressure vote isn't acceptable simply because we have a flipped scum and its day 3.

I would rather simply put on a pressure vote on someone that claim scum at this point, because my goal is to get real information from Titus, not to invoke some defensive response.

A pressure vote, in the abstract, isn't unacceptable.

Your

pressure vote, which appears to be part of a long-running issue you have with Titus's play, is suspicious because you're not doing any actually scumhunting in addition to your Titus complaints.

I was writing this up already, so here you go. The story of Titus, which we can title: This is That and I'm Not Sure Why.

Bunch of new players. I will need to read tonight.

Fair, sound good.

Blah just reading from my subin. Toby looks town.

Decides not to actually look at the game before the sub-in, which sucks. I wouldn’t mind an explanation on the Toby town-read, but this is sort of fine because it seems like just an initial thought.

VOTE: Chaoslord

Keeping wagons up for vca.

First mention of VCA. We will come back to this.

I hold nk analysis for later. I have zero intent of rocking the boat so close to deadline. I am keeping a wagon other than Beli viable to force players to choose.

I get forcing players to choose, but there has still not been any real content or reads yet.

I hold nk analysis for later. I have zero intent of rocking the boat so close to deadline. I am keeping a wagon other than Beli viable to force players to choose.

So you think chaos is scum? Or you don't think Beli's is scum?

Deliberately not making an opinion. I am forcing those in the game who have read and pushed theorues to decide.

I already commented on how I thought this was stupid. If she had actually participated/read through the game in the 3 full days leading up to this, she could have easily contributed and maybe helped town through the lynch. Thankfully we got there without her help.

Toby, someone has to move. There are four or five undecideds. If no one votes Beli, hammering will not matter. I am eliminating the excuse of Beli being the only viable wagon.

This would be ok if there were any real reasonings for this. You are (supposedly) a member of this town, not some nebulous utility slot. Use your voice, and actually say something. Still no actual reads.

I hold nk analysis for later. I have zero intent of rocking the boat so close to deadline. I am keeping a wagon other than Beli viable to force players to choose.

So you think chaos is scum? Or you don't think Beli's is scum?

Deliberately not making an opinion. I am forcing those in the game who have read and pushed theorues to decide.

This is stupid. You have just as much of a voice, and potentially a better perspective since you can read it all fresh.

He does it for VCA purposes. Some people enjoy analysing that to find scum, in addition to other methods which you may be more familiar with.

Indeed. I tend to value VCA a lot at endgame.

That being said, I will be out most of the day so....

VOTE: Beli

Hammers despite the fact that Toby already said she would(presumably not paying attention to the conversation Toby and I had).
Again with the VCA. “Hey guys, I don’t have any actual reads ever, but once end game comes along, I will have a great VCA case.” Sure you will.

@Acyron, you can tell a lot by being silent and forcing players who have read the game to take a stand. I hammered when the last lurker came on.

If scum shot me, it would be a big indicator they liked the gamestate. The NakedJogger kill probably suggests scum want to focus on the hammer. That's a bet I will take.

VOTE: Scrambles

Sure, you can tell a lot, but this is a team game. And whatever you are keeping secret isn’t helping us find scum. Here is your first real explanation of one of your choices based on something within the context of the game. And unfortunately, it is NK speculation which is always WIFOM.

Farside is town btw...

Again, no explanation.

@Farside, it is the argument you had Day 1 with Beli. He is right that replaceouts are null. Yet he includes a "serious vote" on you with his comments. That vote helps start a counterwagon to scrambles. It is a pretty strong chainsaw.

I also think Amy is likely town. Beli has said that scum tend to include a buddy in their lists. I doubt he has here.

Finally, here is an added piece of real reasoning since farside asked for it. That being said, this is based on a hunch at best. Proceeds to make another mention of a person being town with 0 explanation. Then decides based on nothing that Beli didn’t include a buddy in his list. Total WIFOM.

Nope! I don't grok the case on chaos at all. Chaos is just lynchbait.

Chaos also needs more looking into.

Curious is likely town.

Perfect, then look into him and tell us what you find. And again, someone is town with no reasons.

@Farside, I'm not referring to the ultimate end wagon. I'm looking at Beli's first hard defense. Beli hard defended Hiraki's replaceout as null and voted you for wanting to solve that. I could see scum wanting to tear you down for doing something logically unsound but at that point in the game voting you seems a little over the top.

@curious, I can agree on akyon but I'm not certain why. Toby's probably town though. I had the same gut feeling about akryon when reading over the end of day yesterday.

This is probably the first post of her’s that I think is decent. And even then, it is decent at best. The first part is still mostly WIFOM, and the second thought is more town-reads with little-to-no explanation.

@Curious, you can pick up the VCA after I die. It's kinda my thing.

As a side note, I wasn't trustinh NJ to hammer. Never trust a lurker to hamner.

You haven’t done much of anything with your VCA, so not sure how it’s kinda your thing. And I specifically and directly asked NJ, and he said he would do it. Why wouldn’t you trust that?

@Curious, you can pick up the VCA after I die. It's kinda my thing.

As a side note, I wasn't trustinh NJ to hammer. Never trust a lurker to hamner.

since I was gone at the time when you hammered I am not sure about this, how much time was left in the day when you hammered?

also, "VCA"? whats that? and why are you going to die?

As town, my VCA (vote count analysis) has generally been spot on in larges and any scumteam would fear that. Right now I want to sort scrambles and acyon.

There was less than a day when I hammered and I waited until I was out for the day to hammer.

More talk about how great your VCA is, but I am not seeing it at all. You have posted more about your VCA than you have actually done VCA.

UNVOTE: Amy

Nonetheless, going to rethink. I want people to propose alternatives; even if I'm right, Belisarius had two buddies.

Conftown. Amy is town too most likely.

Wow, now someone is CONFIRMED town? But I’m sure there is a good explanation right? Nope. And same with Amy-town call again.

Scrambles and acyon are the two I want to lynch.

Beautiful, no explanation. At least she has said

something

about scrambles prior, but nothing about me.

I'm happy with a CKD or Amy lynch at this stage. I need to reread them both at some stage while I will catch up. I might change my vote if necessary

Stahp. Both are likely town.

Hey, more town-claims with no explanation! Weird!