Open 579: Pick Your (Chocolate) Power -- Game Over

[Mathdino]

See the issue I'm having with Amy is the underhandedness of the statement "If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game" without even scumreading me. It's like "Okay, that action is potentially beneficial for scum". Well that's great. So are most actions. She's throwing out reasons to be suspicious of the theory debate without any conviction.
Also, while farside provides examples and from what I understood, good reasoning on why some assumptions I made were wrong, Amy's reads more like "Well I dunno, PGO

could

be useful, right?" which seems a bit off.

droog is a bit of a weak read, but suffice it to say, I don't think 37 comes from a scum perspective and it doesn't seem faked. I think random voting is pretty null, what's telling is what they do afterward or how their vote is phrased (Flubber's, for example, is scummier than our E.B.O.N.Y. Warrior's vote). Also I think town are slightly more likely to just not have read the thread at this point in the game

and admit to it

.

Hayate

: Why are you calling for a wagon on Flubber but not voting him?

[Alchemist21]

Honestly I don't think Flubber is scum because of his post about being mad. Even if he was exaggerating his anger, I don't think that's really telling.

I'm sure Mathdino is town here, and I feel like Droog's town. I played with these guys before and their play feels very much the same here. I can't say the same for wgeurts until he posts more, but I don't take his RVS vote as scummy. The game is only 3 pages in, we're sure to get some people still coming in RVS voting.

[Venrob]

Ok, so i've done a bit of a skim read so far. I am SOOO pissed and surprised that 4 got the top pick. I mean 1235 all got doubled up, but 4 of all numbers got top.... 4 is always the one that everyone chooses.

Given I hav e a history with this setup... and not a good one... I just hope this game doesn't go to shit for town like it always does.

For reference purposes, Open 472: Town of Lottery Addicts is the only game i have completed of this setup. I also failed to mod it once, and played a game which got abandoned once. Bad luck. In Open 472, I was one of the 4 people who picked the number 4- and had second to last place. I still didn't end up VT though- I got vengeful. But town didn't believe my roleclaim, and believed scum at lylo.... So hopefully I don't make it to lylo, because whenever I do town loses. Unless I become confirmed town before lylo, then I'm fine with living

Anyway, for rvs vote.... why not VOTE: Siveure DtTrikyp


Also for number theory, I have found that picking a semi-high number generally results in high draft order, because everyone doubles up below you. That is why I picked a high number, and I presume same goes for siv.

Either way, I hope this game doesn't go to shit because of me like every game I play does.

[Mathdino]

@Venrob:

1. You're saying you want us to policy you...?
2. Any reads? You say you've read the game but all you talked about is yourself, the past, and an RV.
3. Funny thing on the number 4. According to this notecard I have, the history of 4 in these games is:
5 people, 4 people, 3, 3,

0

, 5.
The 0 was 518, haha.

[Venrob]

No, I'm saying that if the town decides to lynch me even though I am town, I'd rather it not be at LYLO.

Reads? Not really. I don't get reads this early into Day 1. If you wish to confirm that, you can check out my other games- that's what I pretty much always say regardless of alignment.
And if I seem defensive, please note my 1 town win and 6 town losses.

[farside22]

We do think of things differently, but that's good because I think you're on to something but I can't for the life of me understand it.

Can you rephrase your proposal for the vig please? Suppose someone claims 1-shot vig. What are you suggesting?

Also, no, I didn't look into that but I might when I have more time. Hayate's research is a bit more in depth than mine of course (probably does have more time) so I'll see if he wants to.

I was saying the player who picked vig hold off to shot till night 2.
Town or scum with the ability who hold off helps town either way.
Don't forget the 1 shot could pick pGo too.

Amy

, what are your reads? What's your read on me? If scum, why didn't you vote me?

It's page two, I'm not going to look for any serious reads when there are none. If I thought you were scum then I would've voted for you.

So what about town reads outside Dino?


Hayate: I'm referring to if the 1 shot vig held back the shot or not.

[droog]

I wouldn't put it past clever scum to double up and have the 3rd scum pick a separate number. It might be something I'd do out of audacity. Agree on everything else though.

I want to note however that there are definitely picks that scum would find very lucrative. Among them:
1-shot Vig
Roleblocker (just block everyone at the top of the draft)
Jailkeeper
Vengeful/Night3Vig

Since JK and RB are paired up with Tracker and Doc, not much alignment indicative in that. However, 1-shot Vig/1-shot PGO, along with Vengeful/Night3Vig are HIGHLY useful scum roles.

What this means is if you were near the top and you went for either of the above slots and you DIDN'T get them, there is likely scum above you. Be sure to factor this in.

I think you and I think of things differently. I had thought of taking vig to keep it out of scum hands. But on the other side if scum didn't get the first pick and I had first pick I'd think of choosing pGo because scum may kill me and I could kill them back.
Vengeful I imagine IAM when he was scum and targeted the most useful role for the town to die.

PGO is a terrible role because you can't predict for sure when you'll get targeted, so let's get that off the table. 1-shot vig has a much higher chance of hitting town than not.

I'd actually be totally cool with lynching a claimed vengeful if we all vote on who they shoot if they end up being town. Vengeful and vig by themselves are much more likely to hit town than not and if anything are a detriment to town.

When it comes to vig, if the vig agreed to shoot someone the crowd decides on, sure I'd be fine with keeping them alive.

Basically my point is, something like Cop is 10x more useful to town than any killing roles are, and I have a problem with any uncontrolled vigs because if they're scum it's a free pass to kill off a townie they happened to be 'scumreading'.

Out of curiosity with the research done did you or hayate look to see if the vig when town did shoot?
This is where I personally love to wifom scum with the role out there.
See the player picked vig or pGo may or may not be scum. You might say the player waits to shot for a night. Hypothetically he really picked pGo and may or may not activate the ability tonight.

What I have done proposing the above is, if the player is town, give the player an extra day to maybe live because the scum now have to decide is it worth shooting that player and although i don't practice it myself, more info can be had after more then one game day.
You have people that are dead and flipped (should be more then 1).
If the player is scum I forced him from holding back the shot for more analysis. PGo in scum hands is unpredictable though.


Droog: do you think an rvs wagon gives more information? If so what?

RVS tells me who likes wagons
Who's comfortable with sheeting
Which is more useful than not

[farside22]

Honestly I don't think Flubber is scum because of his post about being mad. Even if he was exaggerating his anger, I don't think that's really telling.

I'm sure Mathdino is town here, and I feel like Droog's town. I played with these guys before and their play feels very much the same here. I can't say the same for wgeurts until he posts more, but I don't take his RVS vote as scummy. The game is only 3 pages in, we're sure to get some people still coming in RVS voting.

Why would exaggerated anger read town?
How many games you played with droog? What was his alignment?

No, I'm saying that if the town decides to lynch me even though I am town, I'd rather it not be at LYLO.

Reads? Not really. I don't get reads this early into Day 1. If you wish to confirm that, you can check out my other games- that's what I pretty much always say regardless of alignment.
And if I seem defensive, please note my 1 town win and 6 town losses.

Do you have foot and mouth disease where you say the worst things that read scummy?

Have you played scum here? If so where you lynched easy as well?

[farside22]

RVS tells me who likes wagons
Who's comfortable with sheeting
Which is more useful than not

Sheeping is null. I've seen it from town and scum. Zor's game you just played should tell you that.
Why do you think it's useful?

[Venrob]

I have played scum, 2 wins 3 losses as scum compared to 1 win 6 losses as town. My first game here was a scum game, and it got to lylo (2 scum 3 town.) The only reason I won is that one of the townies had a scum read on the other 2 and a town read on me and my partner. If not for that, I would have been lynched really early. I think everyone was giving me benefit of the noob considering it was my first game on-site. I played really badly... but still won.

In my other game i won as scum, I got dayvigged on day 1. My partner, solo, went on to win the game.

So I don't really have any great scum accomplishments. And my 1 town win was a masons and mafia setup, which honestly seems easy to win for town considering the mafia kept killing themselves XD

So I don't really have a good history, everyone always reads me as scum.

If you want to look for yourself, all completed games are on my wiki.

[Alchemist21]

Honestly I don't think Flubber is scum because of his post about being mad. Even if he was exaggerating his anger, I don't think that's really telling.

I'm sure Mathdino is town here, and I feel like Droog's town. I played with these guys before and their play feels very much the same here. I can't say the same for wgeurts until he posts more, but I don't take his RVS vote as scummy. The game is only 3 pages in, we're sure to get some people still coming in RVS voting.

Why would exaggerated anger read town?
How many games you played with droog? What was his alignment?

No, I'm saying that if the town decides to lynch me even though I am town, I'd rather it not be at LYLO.

Reads? Not really. I don't get reads this early into Day 1. If you wish to confirm that, you can check out my other games- that's what I pretty much always say regardless of alignment.
And if I seem defensive, please note my 1 town win and 6 town losses.

Do you have foot and mouth disease where you say the worst things that read scummy?

Have you played scum here? If so where you lynched easy as well?

I'm not saying it reads town, I'm saying it doesn't read scum. I've played one previous game (o574) with Droog where he was town. He hard pushed an early wagon on randomidget in that game. Dino and wgeurts were also in that game.

[droog]

RVS tells me who likes wagons
Who's comfortable with sheeting
Which is more useful than not

Sheeping is null. I've seen it from town and scum. Zor's game you just played should tell you that.
Why do you think it's useful?

I'm not interested in predicting alignment based on sheeting
I'm interested in learning how the other players think
The more I know about a perso
The more I catch the lies

This is all that really matters for scumhunting

[Alchemist21]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: wgeurts

[Mathdino]

Tbh I'd probably be tunneling Venrob by now for every word he says if I didn't believe him on his meta, haha.

droog is town. Like, incredibly town.

Alchemist, want an explanation for the vote. Is it because wgeurts usually hates RVS? I don't see that as a tell either way.

[farside22]

Honestly I don't think Flubber is scum because of his post about being mad. Even if he was exaggerating his anger, I don't think that's really telling.

I'm sure Mathdino is town here, and I feel like Droog's town. I played with these guys before and their play feels very much the same here. I can't say the same for wgeurts until he posts more, but I don't take his RVS vote as scummy. The game is only 3 pages in, we're sure to get some people still coming in RVS voting.

Why would exaggerated anger read town?
How many games you played with droog? What was his alignment?

No, I'm saying that if the town decides to lynch me even though I am town, I'd rather it not be at LYLO.

Reads? Not really. I don't get reads this early into Day 1. If you wish to confirm that, you can check out my other games- that's what I pretty much always say regardless of alignment.
And if I seem defensive, please note my 1 town win and 6 town losses.

Do you have foot and mouth disease where you say the worst things that read scummy?

Have you played scum here? If so where you lynched easy as well?

I'm not saying it reads town, I'm saying it doesn't read scum. I've played one previous game (o574) with Droog where he was town. He hard pushed an early wagon on randomidget in that game. Dino and wgeurts were also in that game.

If it doesn't read scum or town then null. My question still has merit if you think it's null why would or have you seen town exaggerate feelings?

Tbh I'd probably be tunneling Venrob by now for every word he says if I didn't believe him on his meta, haha.

droog is town. Like, incredibly town.

Alchemist, want an explanation for the vote. Is it because wgeurts usually hates RVS? I don't see that as a tell either way.

I want you to explain the town read. I only know droog from replacing me in another game.

Going with my gut currently

vote: Alchemist

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

See the issue I'm having with Amy is the underhandedness of the statement "If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game" without even scumreading me. It's like "Okay, that action is potentially beneficial for scum". Well that's great. So are most actions. She's throwing out reasons to be suspicious of the theory debate without any conviction.
Also, while farside provides examples and from what I understood, good reasoning on why some assumptions I made were wrong, Amy's reads more like "Well I dunno, PGO

could

be useful, right?" which seems a bit off.

I'm not throwing out reasons to be suspicious. While I dislike theory debates, they're pretty null to me. And I can throw out statements without said statement automatically being attached to a read going one way or the other. It doesn't signify a lack of conviction. I'm not going to make a non-RVS vote for someone for one post.

[Mathdino]

On droog: 37 and 61 show what look like fairly genuine town perspectives, and 61 is just a good post in general, using RVS to the fullest.

On Alchemist and Flubber: Hmm. While I agree that Alchemist's defence of Flubber may be

incorrect

, I'm finding it difficult to call it scummy. Consider: Saying it's null "Even if he exaggerated his anger" doesn't really have much scum motivation if Flubber's town, and if they're both scum I find it difficult to believe Alchemist would be a scumbuddy apologist.
If anything, what's worse about Alch's ISO is the naked vote on wgeurts, but I'm waiting on an explanation for that one.

Edit: Okay, so what was the point of that statement I quoted?

If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game.

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

So I don't really have a good history, everyone always reads me as scum.

Did I miss someone asking for your scum history or are you just throwing this out here?
Because if this is out of the blue then saying 'I'm always scumread' is sure a great way to get people off your back for a while.

[Mathdino]

...you just did it again. "Doing [x] would be pretty useful if you were scum." Okay, so what?

UNVOTE: Flubber
VOTE: Amy

[droog]

So I don't really have a good history, everyone always reads me as scum.

Did I miss someone asking for your scum history or are you just throwing this out here?
Because if this is out of the blue then saying 'I'm always scumread' is sure a great way to get people off your back for a while.

it is also suge a great way to get people off your back for a while
if youre town

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

Edit: Okay, so what was the point of that statement I quoted?

If you're scum then this is a nice way early on to start lining up mislynches for later on in the game.

It's a statement, not an accusation. Don't know if you've noticed, but there's an if up there.
It's me thinking out loud. If you are scum then this is why you'd have posted that.

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

So I don't really have a good history, everyone always reads me as scum.

Did I miss someone asking for your scum history or are you just throwing this out here?
Because if this is out of the blue then saying 'I'm always scumread' is sure a great way to get people off your back for a while.

it is also suge a great way to get people off your back for a while
if youre town

Yes, but was he asked to post his meta/history/whatever or is he just doing that to get in there quickly?

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

...you just did it again. "Doing [x] would be pretty useful if you were scum." Okay, so what?

UNVOTE: Flubber
VOTE: Amy

[droog]

nobody asked
does this indicate scum?

[Amy Farrah Fowler]

nobody asked
does this indicate scum?

In this case it's inclined towards being a scummy action, yes.