Mini 1625: Redemption (Game Over)

[crazypianist1116]

Day could lynch scum a. Night a could kill b and b could kill a. Next day is 3-0-1.

[Naomi-Tan]

And you're not scum hunting.

_{Your not either... just pointing out how stupid I am like GGG...}

[GGG]

And you're not scum hunting.

_{Your not either... just pointing out how stupid I am like GGG...}

I made an istot/TTH case which no one responded to.

[ChannelDelibird]

Though we won't see a crosskill if there really are two scum factions, I continue to feel that, given our strong position, we should continue to proceed as if we are looking for a single remaining wolf buddy. It should be more productive to scumhunt that way.

GGG, I read your TTH case and I don't hate it but Riddleton's behaviour around the fake dayvig looks more to me like he's 'clearing' someone whom he already knows is town to make himself look credible. Though I'll admit that you've added more doubt to that read than I had before your case.

Originalchris looks very much like the obvious candidate here who doesn't have a particularly good reason pointing to him being town and has been generally a bit off.

[droog]

i think it would be more productive to look for the second scum faction
which means looking at anti-town, scummy players
which... is the same thing

why are we having this debate again?

[GGG]

So what's the Chris case again?

[ChannelDelibird]

i think it would be more productive to look for the second scum faction
which means looking at anti-town, scummy players
which... is the same thing

why are we having this debate again?

I somewhat agree with you in principle, but if we're looking for a third werewolf then we can scumhunt interactions with the flipped wolves, which would have us looking for different things. And also I'm just annoyed by people paying attention to anything that DGB said after being exposed.

[droog]

ok, look, two factions are the likeliest outcome

werewolves had a gunsmith.
this is only useful if there exists:
-cop
-vigilante
-mafia
-gunsmith
-pgo

i see 0 evidence for a vigilante or a pgo
if there's a gunsmith with 2 actions and no guilties, now's the time to claim

leaving us with a cop or scum
why would cop exist if there are no scum?

the only counter explanation is gunsmith is a red herring
but it wouldnt be a red herring to us, we weren't guaranteed to see it
it'd be a red herring to the wolf faction

....


....



itd be pretty hard to be a red herring
when they know exactly how big they are

[droog]

if there were 3 wolves out of 13 players
would they be 'fooled' by assuming an equivalent 3-person scumteam?
thats what a gunsmith would tell the wolves

actually, here's a thought
how do we know naomi is a watcher? we don't.
she could easily be a mafia seer or whatever the werewolf equivalent of gunsmith is

[droog]

i mean, clearly we have at least one faction
and no one died last night
so there's some doctor/bulletproof/etc. running around

remember only 1 kill happened ngiht 1

so which assumption is more reasonable:

1. there were 2 kills night 1 but only 1 person died
2. the gunsmith was a red herring

because i just went through why 2 is a poor assumption

[Naomi-Tan]

I should ask Droog to explain my stuff properly more often...

[Naomi-Tan]

i mean, clearly we have at least one faction
and no one died last night
so there's some doctor/bulletproof/etc. running around

remember only 1 kill happened ngiht 1

so which assumption is more reasonable:

1. there were 2 kills night 1 but only 1 person died
2. the gunsmith was a red herring

because i just went through why 2 is a poor assumption

Didn't we kill the gunsmith day 1 though? so he'd had no chance to act?

[droog]

Yeah but the setup design can't control that

[TellTaleHeart]

i think it would be more productive to look for the second scum faction
which means looking at anti-town, scummy players
which... is the same thing

why are we having this debate again?

We're having this debate because of the associative tells people think should be used. Should they be with DGB and AWA or independent of them?

[TellTaleHeart]

I think this is the best vote.
VOTE: ChannelDelibird

[TellTaleHeart]

And I think Naomi is scum with him.

[TellTaleHeart]

The idea is that DGB was looking for a wagon to get started. When one did start on Istot she didn't jump on. OC voted Istot, I followed, an hour later DGB post asking for a vote count. This wagon could have hit 4 votes and been number two behind AWA. DGB didn't jump on it.

Actually, DGB's vote would have put the wagon at 3 votes since TierShift unvoted at Post 1089. In fact, a few hours later, TierShift shouted down the wagon in Post 1162.

Not that it really matters since there's evidence that DGB didn't even know the vote count in Post 1157.

[Whomping Willow]

Who's up for a Naiomi wagon

[Flubbernugget]

I believe naomi's claim

[TellTaleHeart]

Why there's probably a mafia faction

Two factions with two members each would better explain how the AWA wagon didn't have a lot more resistance than it did. But the most compelling piece of evidence for the existence of a mafia faction is the 1-shot Gunsmith Werewolf flip. As per the wiki page, gunsmiths can detect other gunsmiths, cops, vigilantes, and mafia. Two deaths over one night makes vigilante unlikely. Cops and town gunsmiths wouldn't pose a threat to werewolves even if they did exist, so if the intent of including the role was that, there's very little utility in it for them. The only alternative is that the moderator is trying to mislead the werewolves into thinking there's mafia. There doesn't seem to be much of a goal in doing that, aside from a sadistic moderator who just likes to confuse his players.

As for Naomi's objection that there isn't 4 scum in Post 1303, I can think of two open 13 player set-ups that involve 4 scum and 9 town: Fire and Ice and Enemy of My Enemy. Two scum factions are explicitly normal as per the Normalcy Wiki page. There's nothing about 2 scum factions of two members each that's beyond the pale.

That leaves us with the objection of why there have been so few kills, but failed kills could be explained by the existence of a doc, bulletproof, or jailkeeper. There's also the potential that mafia are playing a gambit by declining to kill to push the idea that there's only one scum faction and establish bogus assumptions off of which most of the town scumhunts. This leads into my next section.

ChannelDelibird

The first problem that greets us in this ISO is that there doesn't seem to be very much thinking beyond the superficial in terms of setup and, specifically, how many factions there are. Post 1308 is the major "catch-up" post where he establishes very firmly that he's looking for another werewolf. Considering he spends a

great

deal of time in formulating these reads, the basic assumption making up their foundation receives a shockingly superficial examination. There's no mention of the monkey wrench in the "one faction" theory: the gunsmith flip. I think the reason the faction issue is receiving so little scrutiny is because there's something to gain by not giving it any. It's obvious from other posting that ChannelDelibird is capable of doing in-depth analysis, but he chooses not to do it when it comes to the setup.

Then there's the reads themselves and how they show up Day 3. Here's his summary of the entire post: "

I strongly suspect that there's only one scumteam and that GGG

is its final member. If not him, originalchris would be the next place to look. Whatever you do,

never lynch TellTaleHeart

or droog. Don't listen to anything DGB said after her self-vote." Fast-forwarding to Day 3, we see there's a pretty drastic change in the reads list. In Post 1428, he said he was a lot less confidence in the townread on my slot based on a factually inaccurate case made by someone he was scumreading. There's already something wrong with that by itself, and that's before you even consider how the GGG read got to the state it's in now. At the time of the catch up, GGG was the leading scumread by a "reasonably wide" gap. To fill in that gap, ChannelDelibird cited Post 1383 and Post 1385, neither of which

should

have assuaged his suspicions. Post 1383 is GGG calling attention to his own interactions with DGB in an attempt to make the argument that it's exculpatory evidence, an argument which should void itself once made given that you can manipulate your own interactions. The idea of distancing seems to not occur to ChannelDelibird, though it should have because he was approaching the reread with a strong GGG scumread. Post 1385 is an admission that GGG botched the read. This is an undeniable fact at this point and as scum GGG would only make himself look bad by continuing to deny it or excuse it, so why that post would indicate GGG is town is not apparent.

In short, the changing reads don't make sense given the goings on in the thread, what GGG said, and the scant explanation given by ChannelDelibird himself. That read feels too malleable to be genuine. I think ChannelDelibird is scum.

[Naomi-Tan]

Who's up for a Naiomi wagon

If I had to speculate, You, GGG, and Piantist ... Ironic.. the 3 people I voted, even if one of you was trolling at the time.. and it seems to be from my lack of usefulness :I though I did ignore day 2 after I was like hey, this guy killed, im a one-shot watcher, go lynch... ... but meh.. all the smart people agreed that there was a mafia team despite my lack of ability to describe it.. If I had to suggest scum I'd do GGG and Piantist still.... but I suck so bad right now that I'd feel that If I attempted to suggest such a thing everyone would turn on me

[droog]

tth was kind of null-scum but
i really liked his case just now

im going to sheep it

VOTE: delibird

[GGG]

Who's up for a Naiomi wagon

If I had to speculate, You, GGG, and Piantist ... Ironic.. the 3 people I voted, even if one of you was trolling at the time.. and it seems to be from my lack of usefulness :I though I did ignore day 2 after I was like hey, this guy killed, im a one-shot watcher, go lynch... ... but meh.. all the smart people agreed that there was a mafia team despite my lack of ability to describe it.. If I had to suggest scum I'd do GGG and Piantist still.... but I suck so bad right now that I'd feel that If I attempted to suggest such a thing everyone would turn on me

No Naiomi I have you as pretty solid town. You keep doing things to try to convince me you are scum but the day after you validate the DGB lynch I am not getting all paranoid and going after you.

[GGG]

Droogs also sold me on why the gunsmith as decoy also works.

unvote

[GGG]

Should have read gunsmith as decoy doesn't work