Newbie 1561: Puppies! (Game Over)

[++--]

@++-- - I've seen scum hardcore white knight a partner before. It's a super gutsy strategy, but it can work if it isn't used too frequently within a group of players. I'm not saying I think EW + HI is the scum team; however, I wouldn't completely dismiss it from evaluation based upon that super hardcore defense.

That's actually a good point, thank you.

@++--
I have no reason to change my reads on the game when I haven't been proven wrong yet. How do you propose to account for the other 25% of the cases? The only way I know how is to first go with the 75% while we have mislynches available and if that proves to be wrong then re-evaluate.

Drixx flipping reads on me like crazy does not ping you?

So... what you're saying is that you're sticking with your reads unless your scumread actually flips town? That's strange... Also, about the cases: IDK, your approach could be right. But: 1. "scum splits" wasn't the only assumption you made 2. I think that if it doesn't take very much energy to account for, say, 20% more cases, you should do it.

No, flipping reads doesn't ping me. If you've been reading my readlists, the only slot on which my read hasn't changed throughout the game is yours as town. For every other, it did. Why? Because that's how I play - constantly changing reads based on the new available information - sure enough, that results in lots of false accusations, but, in the end, gets the right result often. Why am I talking about my play instead of Drixx's? It's to illustrate. I don't know how Drixx plays. Maybe his playstyle is also this. Maybe he's an opportunistic scum.

Actually, you two going against eachother is quite an interesting case, so I'll evaluate it a bit more. Let's start with the case in which one of you is scum. Could it be Drixx? It very well could be: (assuming that HI is town), he might have just seen that there is willingness to lynch copper - who is a strong player, and therefore determines the way the game goes to a great extent. Also, a person who's previously voted him, so a possible threat. And, finally, not one of the obvious lynches - usually, players, when somebody pushes a lynch through on a non-obvious scumread, get a townread for not trying to lynch the obvious, even if this is a ridiculous thing. Could it be copper? Yes, sure: what we have here is a player who's been on all major wagons so far (Drixx first, then followed by EW, finally switching to mallow, and in D2, got to the EW wagon again, hoping to get EW lynched) and influences the game very heavily. But... what if this is not the case. First of all, from all I know, it might as well be a bus. Strange, sure... but if one of you manages to get the other lynched, probably noone will raise any suspicions towards that player. And, finally, and this is what my readlist (maybe wrongly, I don't know) said: what if we have two townies going heavily against eachother? This happens quite often. How could this be? Easily: Drixx is obviously enough an active, experienced-somewhere-else player, who, just like copper, likes to have a great influence. And, because of different reasons, every player, except from them, had a decreased activity. What does that mean? Those two players will spend multiple days, and a huge number of posts, responding to eachother. And, of course, they have different opinions. What do we get from this? Two players, opposing eachother. And now to this situation, add that one (copper) scumread the other (Drixx) previously... and here we have a "perfect" situation, in which scum doesn't even have to do anything, just sit back and relax, while two townies are trying to get eachother lynched, just because they disagreed with eachother about one or two things in the beginning, but, having noone else to talk with, in the end, disagreed with everyone.

I'm not saying that it's impossible that exactly one of you is scum. It's very well possible. If that's the case, I'd lean towards Drixx being that player. But, and here is an important point... I like to see the complete picture. Cases that you didn't think of. Sure enough, FYPOV, half of the cases (that is, where you are scum) are nonsense if you're town (and if you're scum, the so-called "reads" aren't anything else than creative bullshitting), but you still have managed to make an assumption, which is, that if two players end up basically tunnelling eachother, one of them is scum. Maybe that's the case. Maybe not. For me, even the least possible of these cases (that is, that this whole thing is a well-constructed bus) is significant enough. Probably, even if you were just reading the game, instead of playing it, therefore, had no knowledge about the alignment of "copper", you still wouldn't consider "copper" and Drixx bussing eachother. Just like you didn't consider scum not splitting.

(Preview edit:)

If you do not lynch EW in the next 24 hours you should not be allowed outside without adult supervision.

You're ridiculously overrating your skills. While my main FoS IS EW, this "omgjustlynchEWyoudumbidiots" attitude is just plain stupid.

If you geniuses manage to lynch me and after I flip town you will lynch Epic Warrior.

OMFG YOU MANAGED TO BECOME EVEN MORE ARROGANT, CONGRATULATIONS! So... as we all know, EW is my main scumread, and I'm voting him for a long time now. And, copper is my biggest townread by far. Therefore, I absolutely disagree with the copper-lynch. But... if you're trying to say that if the copper-lynch goes through and you're town, we should blindly follow your leads at LYLO? ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME? THIS IS NOT HOW YOU PLAY. THIS IS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN (I hope, at least), because LYLO isn't the time for "omg, just blindly follow reads", capisce? If you're town, I really hope you're joking... if not, I really hope I'll never be in the same game as you ever again. (If you're scum, this is a well-constructed WIFOM, and the previous statement doesn't hold, obviously.)

Anyway. If you're going to get lynched, it's your fault. You shouldn't make so many assumptions, and you shouldn't be this arrogant.

[++--]

Shit, I misformatted the quote in my previous post, and forgot to preview... Obviously enough, it's

If you geniuses manage to lynch me and after I flip town you will lynch Epic Warrior.

[copper223]

Oh God not copper223 again.

Replace out.

loljk~

I'll read the game in a bit, gents.

To understand this you have to check 1551, I though HI was scum for most of the game (because being bad he spent his time 1v1in a town read of mine) so I was going to get him lynched before he force replaced out to avoid it (very classy), so he comes into the game and his first worry is: shit Copper is playing, if he tunnels me again I'm screwed. What does this say about which alignment he more likely is?

I think I'm sold, EW/HI is the scumteam for this game, Drixx just OMGUSED me and Singer is the only one on the Mallow train I don't really FoS.

Jason and ++-- are town, Jason's low contribution is not helping us but holidays are holidays.

[copper223]

++-- I don't give A FUCK about how arrogant you think I am, EW is scum this game and I am trying to win it, what do you think I will tell you about who to lynch? If you don't follow after going through with posdibly the worst lynch in history, I tried my best.

[copper223]

@++--
Completly out of game related but pot meet kettle, you persist in telling me how I am supposed to play which to me is the true arrogance, I am (over?)confident about my reads, if you don't follow your own instincts and logic in this game you might as well not play, and your strategy (similar to Drixx?) of covering every single scenario is first of all impossible to achieve and second is bad for when presenting your case to the rest of town, we all want to know who the most likely scum is, not what % Copper gives for Drixx being an alt of a player that routinely wall-posts only as scum.

[++--]

Maybe it's true arrogance, but, to use your words... "I don't give A FUCK about how arrogant you think I am". Also, no, I'm not considering every case. But I don't make assumptions that disregard a 25% case.

[copper223]

If EW flips this game we will see whose playstile has more merit.

[copper223]

@Drixx

2.

Hostile Intent (formerly choof)

: Post 41 actually worries the fuck out of me given who replaced in. HI, did you replace in with a read on this slot of having read any of the game beforehand? I'm actually partially gutting some weird fowl play here but I suppose it is what it is. That said, incredibly unlikely to be scum with paul, so.

The only follow up from HI on this was he was scared of Cabd, he then voted Cabd

for putting EW at L-1

, he unvoted because his vote was "dumb and useless"(EW was still at L-1).

So my updated consideration of the NK is I was left alive most likely not because of medic saves but because of my town read on the Choof/HI slot, the next most threatening player for EW was Cabd and HI was also rapidly approaching his shit list with that vote and not replying to Cabd's concerns so that's why he was killed.

Notice also how HI came into D2, "I'm sorry Copper, you were right but

I want to go on Drixx now

, you were likely the designated mislynch because your stalling the EW looks scummy, because Cabd wanting you dead and getting killed also looked bad for you and because if you flipped town my EW / Drixx theory would be discredited and they could still kill me tonight if there is no role blocker.

[toolenduso]

Vote Count 2.03

Epic Warrior (2): ++--, copper223
Hostile Intent (0):
Drixx (0):
++-- (0):
copper223 (2): Drixx, Epic Warrior
singersigner (0):
JasonWazza (0):

Not voting (3): singersigner, JasonWazza, Hostile Intent

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch

Deadline: Jan. 9 at 9:35 p.m. Pacific Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2015-01-09 21:35:00)

[Epic Warrior]

@EW...do you mind just giving the cliff notes version of Drixx's case on copper so I feel like you actually understand why you're voting? "Yeah, what he said" isn't really reassuring...

Essentially, Copper's case is based on several assumptions and he won't change his case despite the fact that Drixx pointed this out.

Every case is based on assumptions unless you are a cop with a red check, this is nonsense.

It's like you're deliberately trying to misunderstand me. Read SS's quote. Lo was replying to it.

HI, I really appreciate it, but odds are I'll get hammered anyway, and then no matter if I'm town or scum they'll think you're scum too. As evidenced by that exchange higher on this page.

This sounds like EW telling HI not to help him because he is going down, especially the: no matter what I flip makes no sense, why would you say that as town?

Again, notice how I said: As evidenced by that exchange higher on the page. Go back to the page. Read it.

Drixx is so right. You're refusing to change your reads despite their flaws, and now you're bringing stuff like this up as "proof" of HI and me as a scumteam, whereas if you just read the entire post it would be obvious what I was talking about. I think you actually did read the entire post and are just grasping at straws now.

[copper223]

@EW
Yes Drixx is so right, I'm not changing my reads... I just completely switched my read on HI which was one of the starting points for me this game and now also believe Drixx is more likely town than scum, the read that is not changing is the correct one I have on you.

[Epic Warrior]

And for that one read you will pull up anything and everything to support it. I think you're about our of material now though, seeing as you used those two quotes.

[copper223]

I can make a page long case on why you are scum here and already have, those 2 quotes are relevant for your HI coonection.

[copper223]

@Out of game
I'm out, happy 2015 to all of you.

[Drixx]

@Epic Warrior - Your effort is underwhelming. You appear to have sheeped on my case, but you didn't really seem to get why I was scum reading Copper. Now, I went so far as to point it out point by point, and Copper is still being super arrogant and hasn't actually humbled himself enough to own up to what he was doing, but what he

has

done is start to re-evaluate the game in a way that doesn't tunnel in on just one theory. ++-- made a cogent point that it could just be creative bullshitting; however, Copper has put up a LOT of posts this game, and it's nearly impossible to do so without someone being able to put together a scum case against you.

And yet, I didn't have a strong scumread on him until what he was doing (hammering away at a theory he admitted was vulnerable at multiple assumption points) didn't match up to what he said. That has now changed. The question is whether it changed because I made a list of what a town player would do in the situation, or if he is the strong town player I read him as for most of the game and something someone said snapped him back awake and out of the rut.

The main question, I think, is whether his turning on HI is genuine or a desperation move. He kept rating HI as town over and over, despite the nastiness between them, and his read didn't change because of new info. So ... is copper a townie who got caught tunnel visioning, snapped out of it and went and did a re-read to update his reads, or is it just desperation? This is one of those questions that's really hard to answer without knowing someone's meta.

[Drixx]

@Out of game
I'm out, happy 2015 to all of you.

And to you mate. May it be better than the last.

[copper223]

Back to the nitty gritty

@Drixx
You spent D1 shielding what amounts to confscum from my pov and lynching a guy I told you was at best a 55/45 for what basically amounts to your (bad) policy on lurking, so STFU? In fact if you are town you were so bad scum likely picked you for a framejob, this should speak for itself.

Oh but I do have new information, HI's snap vote on me made no sense given his stated prior town read and that he had just got confirmation from the flip on Mallow that I likely had town's best interests at heart to begin with, I also did not like how he was testing the waters with Singer before jumping, his follow up about giving him a few posts before going back to you sounded weird, his contradiction on how he ignored you for saying you were reaction testing me compared to snap voting me is unaccounted for and finally his reaction to the EW sheep is pretty damning, that unvote shows how self conscious he was about the wagon and how he quickly needed to get off.

After that it was a matter of re-reading keeping in mind a possible EW/HI team, note that the logical framework I used to reach you and EW is still perfectly valid, what fell through was my assumption that HI is town which you could all dispute on your own if you disagreed with it, and to be fair you (Drixx) did question me about it when asking about my standards when judging HI, but then for mysterious reasons you did not follow through to reach your own conclusion about who is actually scum in this game, which as town should be your top priority.

Frankly I'm still not 100% on you because your scumhunting to date is a policy lynch on lurkers, a sheep of my read on EW and at best an OMGUS on me, that's really bad but after seeing the associations between EW and HI I have to think they must be the scumteam.

I also stated prior to all this that HI was a possible blind spot for me and the meta you are looking for is plain to see in Newbie 1551, so this possible Copper switched to appease me idea is just

[singersigner]

HI, I really appreciate it, but odds are I'll get hammered anyway, and then no matter if I'm town or scum they'll think you're scum too. As evidenced by that exchange higher on this page.

This sounds like EW telling HI not to help him because he is going down, especially the: no matter what I flip makes no sense, why would you say that as town?

This is weird. It actually looks like more of a scum-EW confirming a town-HI by trying to "protect" him from making any negative associations with him and gaining his trust.

@Drixx...what do you think of this statement?

Epic Warrior

, not sure if you know this or not, but you shouldn't claim even at L-1 unless someone claims intent to hammer. And since all four players off your lynch have expressed no desire to hammer you, my advise is that you shouldn't claim at all.

What you SHOULD do, however, is scum hunt more so I don't feel stupid for reading you newb-town.

Thanks.

Scum coaching scum?

This is a standard theory comment and probably shouldn't be mistaken for coaching? It feels like your confbiasing HI here.

@Drixx...what do you make of this?

[copper223]

Better go to bed with an aspirin cause the letters are spinning

[copper223]

@Singer
Please justify your last two statements, why do you think the first interaction is more likely to be EW_Scum and HI_Town and why is the big SHOULD scumhunt in the second quote more likely to be a general theory post from HI?

Do you now have a townread in HI? If so when did it change from your scumread of Choof and why?

[copper223]

@Singer
Also if you think that this points to EW scum why were you town reading him yesterday? You said you were more sure of EW being town than Mallow being scum (which you gave as 75%) and that's a pretty strong endorsment.

[singersigner]

I mean, I was pretty wrong about Mallow? Who I was scum reading for than town reading EW. I'm a pretty firm believer of not letting a leading wagon for the majority of a day get detailed towards the last second and get away with it.

I mostly just want Drixx to respond to the points because you made them and he's scumreading you and I'm not.

[Drixx]

@Copper - I've pointed out scum tells on 5 people current alive in this game, and you're saying I haven't done any scumhunting? The only person I haven't made a case against is ++--, and that's because I haven't found anything that isn't reasoned well, that reads non townie or that is contradictory in his posts; nor have I seen him demonstrate knowledge he shouldn't have. He hasn't been super active, nor has he gotten deeply involved in the main discussion, so he's a 50/50 null read atm. Every other player in the game, I've evaluated and pointed out things that don't quite sit right. How much more scumhunting do you want? Shall I go scumhunt another newbie game or something?

For the record, I didn't sheep your read on EW, which is easy to see since I pointed out things he said and did today that added to the scum case you started. Sheeping is saying "I agree with X's case" and voting. Sheeping doesn't involve furthering the case, and generally I despise sheeping because it's an attempt by a player to place a vote but avoid any responsibility for the vote.

I do appreciate you laying out your thoughts on HI. I didn't view HI's post to be testing the waters, but it makes sense in the context of the vote on you without reason, and it definitely makes sense in light of jumping off the wagon; however, if HI is scum, why aren't you locked?

Finally, I reject your assertion that I spent Day 1 shielding EW. HI made a much more impressive display of re-directing the wagon. I merely gave my opinion that we could probably count on getting more posts from EW and those posts would either confirm the read or back up HI's assertion that EW was town. For me, I don't think anything EW has said today moves the meter towards town. That said, I firmly stick to the premise that Mal was never going to get active, and given that he flipped VT, he would have been a really easy lynch wagon for scum in LYLO if we had just let him lurk his way through the game.

The fact that you keep overselling my play yesterday as way more than it was is confusing. Can you realistically argue that Mal was ever going to be an asset to the game? Can you argue that he wasn't an easy lynch wagon if he made it to LYLO? He needed to be lynched out for the good of the town. Period. EW did indeed make some scummy posts and you may well be exactly spot on with your analysis of him. In fact, at the start of this day phase, you may recall me suggesting that we weren't likely to get a consensus on anyone but him today.

I'm on the fence atm really. ++-- had a very good observation that both you and I are very active and both aggressive. If you are town, his speculation that we're giving the scum team a smokescreen could be spot on.


@Singer - I'll quote you and answer your questions in a moment.

[copper223]

@Drixx
I asked you today who scum is and you told me you needed a re-read, that is worrisome. Pointing out scummy or off posts doesn't mean much if you don't follow through by voting for those people.

Who knows what Mallow would have done, for sure I'd be happier with an EW lynch because that would have yielded a wealth more of information even if it turned out that this game I'm high on bath salts and my scumreads are crap, and despite a scummy player being at L-1 the rest of you (you are right HI was the driving force) refused to hammer, organised a counterwagon for EW (who joined stating he didn't find Mallow too scummy btw if you forgot) and forced that lynch through, this would not have worked without the cooperation of Singer and Drixx, and of the two of you Singer looked like the more open to a hammer on EW. Not only is this very unusual, all of you minus HI are flipping your read around on EW now which leaves me scratching my head about the resistance yesterday.

What you added about EW is that he continued lurking, that's self evident.

I'd like to add that his gameplan is surviving at all costs, just look at that L-1 on me and the bogus reasons he came up with for it, so if he turns out to be town after all that's the most mafia sided approach I've seen since a guy self hammered himself as cop.

@Singer
I understand you'd like those information from Drixx, but I want to know what you think, if you want to hear Drixx replying first fine by me.

[Drixx]

HI, I really appreciate it, but odds are I'll get hammered anyway, and then no matter if I'm town or scum they'll think you're scum too. As evidenced by that exchange higher on this page.

This sounds like EW telling HI not to help him because he is going down, especially the: no matter what I flip makes no sense, why would you say that as town?

This is weird. It actually looks like more of a scum-EW confirming a town-HI by trying to "protect" him from making any negative associations with him and gaining his trust.

@Drixx...what do you think of this statement?

Epic Warrior

, not sure if you know this or not, but you shouldn't claim even at L-1 unless someone claims intent to hammer. And since all four players off your lynch have expressed no desire to hammer you, my advise is that you shouldn't claim at all.

What you SHOULD do, however, is scum hunt more so I don't feel stupid for reading you newb-town.

Thanks.

Scum coaching scum?

This is a standard theory comment and probably shouldn't be mistaken for coaching? It feels like your confbiasing HI here.

@Drixx...what do you make of this?

That first quote could go either way. A really newbie scum might tell his partner, in the thread, not to defend him ... but that would have to be one bold or clueness newbie. I don't think that's very likely. I think EW was legitimately telling HI not to tie herself to him. That post can't really tell us much. A town EW could say that and a scum EW could say that. The problem with viewing that as an attempt by EW to curry favor from HI is that EW didn't need any favor from HI. HI had just spent like two pages defending him. That motive for that post just doesn't make any sense.

As for the second thought, I think you're spot on. I think you claim when someone puts you in a position of claim or else. For example, Cabd pushed to put me at L-1 and force me to claim, which resulted in first a soft and then a hard claim from me. EW had not, to my memory, been asked to claim. HI's comment seems like a bit of advice that belongs in a newbie game. I've made a few posts as advice in the game myself, so it didn't really strike me as anything more than that. It

could

be coaching, but

this

isn't the post you have to convince yourself is a scum play if you want to posit an HI and EW scum team. You have to convince yourself that HI would go to the enormous lengths she did following 357 to stop the wagon on EW to buy an HI and EW scum team.

In short: If HI is scum with EW, then the first one looks like EW making a pretty newbie play, although it seems both you and I would lean towards thinking no scum would make that obvious of a post telling his partner to lay off defending him. Without being able to talk to each other until the night, it is possible though. I don't think we can fully rule it out.

I think your analysis is fairly good. I judge it unlikely for both HI and EW to be scum. It would take a gigantic amount of balls to play that brazenly as a team. It's possible, and if they are a team, they both made some very bold plays in the open. I think it's more likely that one or the other is scum. You suggest that Copper is suffering from confirmation bias, which suggests you view him as conftown. Apart from the possible confirmation bias, what do you think about his read on HI?