micro 429: m9++. epilogue.

[mykonian]

heh, that was not intentional

vote:brantz

[davesaz]

The recent stuff on BRantz makes sense. I'll go re-read the early stuff and see why I thought it was less likely he'd be FuDuzn's scumbuddy.

[davesaz]

Aha, the reason I thought BRantz was unlikely to be scum was that they were both on the TTH wagon. But BRantz started out there a long time earlier so the negative association isn't valid.

Early game they hardly interacted at all, neither to buddy nor to outwardly distance. FuDuzn started distancing later, during the TTH wagon (he'd accept BRantz as a compromise), and then BRantz had all the resistance to switching wagons to break the tie, leaving it to Myko, not believing the claim but still not switching, wanting SB to confirm, etc.

At the end he'd lose all credibility if he didn't bus, even though scum would be in a better position with the no lynch.

VOTE: BRantz

[davesaz]

BTW I think that's L-1.

[BRantz]

Starting my reread tonight. More coming in the next few hours.

[TierShift]

Good.

[BRantz]

Apologies for the wall!

Day 1:

So the first 9ish pages almost completely revolved around Willows fake claim, and Sordros/dave because of it.

I really like Tier's play in these pages. Dave is just as perplexing the second time around (will talk more about this later). Myko starts out awfully, but at 156 he really turns it around (this is when he goes from scum to town for me, posts 168, 238, and 401 were really big in reinforcing this for me). Cyrus backgroud pushes dave during his whole wagon, while letting others do the heavy lifting, and avoids ever really being involved with the sordros wagon except to say he finds sordros town once. Sordros became one of my biggest scum reads at this point because he just completely faded away once there was no attention on him (though he disappeared from the game completely, so not lurking). Vyse does a lot of nothing in these pages (he says a lot of things, but never really does anything. I didn't notice this the first time, but ProHawk points it out in 265. Then in Vyse's next post he votes Pro for it.)

On page 10/11 dave and I argue back and forth and it has been questioned at least once why I never voted him here. I figured out why dave was never my top scum read while I was rereading all of this. The problem I had with dave most of this time was that his posts all felt very anti-town, not scummy, just anti town (in 449 I touch on this a little with the fact that I just can't see his posts coming from a town perspective, but even then didn't realized that I didn't necessarily think they were scum motivated either.) His play was not great in the early game, but rereading it feels as if for the most part he is just very frustrated the whole time, and is lashing out because of it.

In pages 12-16 we get a bunch of replacements, and it seems to reinvigorate the game (with a break around Christmas). ProHawk gives a bunch of reads, and pokes and prods at people that he finds scummy to flesh them out. I really like his play in the game. SB posted somewhat sparingly but with a ton of content when he did, and made some good points (not really a lot of point in talking about it since he was town). I like TTH's first post with reasoning on Fu, but then she does a lot of nothing for most of the rest of the day, which is why I stayed on her toward the end. It was a lot of the same problem I had with her predecesor in Cyrus.

Inexplicably, with two wagons to choose from (TTH and FuDuzn) Tier tries to start a wagon on ProHawk (411) less than two days before deadline. This looks really bad upon reread. The other thing I like about TTH toward the end of the day is her arguing toward Tier here. Not loving the Hawk OMGUS vote on Tier here either. But more importantly when no one else votes Pro, Tier makes post 424 and switches back to TTH with the only reason as "reread TTH's case on Fu", and she even tries to justify it further in post 425.

FuDuzn finally shows back up in the game, but does almost nothing except make a couple of air posts. Interestingly Vyse is the person orchestrating the lynch of Fu the whole time, while after her intial case TTH seems content to let things fall where they will (though admittedly this is because she was certain she would be lynched).

As we approach deadline Fu claims cop. Tier, myself, and Pro all don't like the claim, but none of us are willing to lynch a claimed pr without a counter, which SB does shortly.

Based on day 1 people who are almost certainly town: Vyse, TTH, Myko

[BRantz]

Day 2:

@Tier: Why would it matter if the other seeking mason claimed at this point? Why would you not want a "confirmed" townie in the game at this point?

Possible setups:

MMI (tracker and seeking mason left)
MMJ (1-shot JK and seeking mason left)
MMT (seeking mason left)
In all cases, 1 goon left.

At least 1 living town player knew that the FuDuzn claim had to be false, and one more could have known it was very unlikely without knowing of the existence of seekers.
It will take some time to do my own analysis.

This is wrong. In the MMI, and MMJ set up it would be a Roleblocker left. Intentionally misleading?

I like Vyse's 621 and 623 even though I feel they are misguided. Also like Pro's reads post 634 but again disagree with the myko read.

I don't understand the argument going on between Pro and TTH about TTH not claiming at all.

Oh. Myko is the other seeking mason.

I am curious as to what myko thinks the scum slip from Pro was in his post 674.

Don't like that dave throws suspicion at prohawk, then when questioned on it says he doesn't really have a reason.

@Tier:
697: Prior to my reads post about Fu on page 4 he had made 2 posts 41 which was his "I'm here post", and 61. The only common theme in the two posts is that he doesn't like dave at that point in the game (which develops into a theme later). How much of a read one way or the other could I possibly have? The only thing I liked about him at that point is that he called dave on the bullshit about scum quicklynching, dumb or not it is what it is.

689: See my readdressing of the dave situation in my day one post for why I never had dave as my top scum read. Ditto for my myko scumread.

703: Yes because me calling him one of my top 3 scum candidates is avoiding giving a read. *rolls eyes*

I don't like myko's aversion to reading analysis as our only "confirmed" town player. Even when the analysis is against me and wrong.

Still don't understand myko's scumread on me, but I doubt I am ever going to get a better answer than I've already gotten.

Really hate the dave "sheep" onto me, feels extremely opportunistic.

VOTE: davesaz

If the scum isn't him then it is probably tier.

[TierShift]

Before I actually read this post and respond to it I must say that I completely forgot about dave.

[TierShift]

Okay, brantz, we have a flipped scum. We can now use interactions from said scum with the other players. Why aren't you doing so and instead try to hang dave for early game anti-townness and sheeping?

[BRantz]

I am mostly ignoring Fu because he had almost no interactions during the day. He called some people town, and others null/scum, but he mostly avoided interacting seriously with anyone.

[TierShift]

Right, but you can read others reactions to him. Do you thnk he'd be the first to bus his presumed buddy, davesaz?

[BRantz]

I think it became quickly obvious that dave was not going to be a serious lynch target, and thus he felt fine parking his vote there.

[BRantz]

Look the fact of the matter is, I doubt I will convince anyone that I am not the lynch today. But I am sure as hell going to try, so that at the very least you have thoughts to go off of tomorrow.

[TierShift]

Fuck this shit, this doesn't look like weak last scum being run up day 2.
UNVOTE:
Upon a quick fu-dave ISO, it seems indeed possible that all Fu did was one big bus that never had any chance of succeeding.
Digging more into this tomorrow.

[davesaz]

Don't like that dave throws suspicion at prohawk, then when questioned on it says he doesn't really have a reason.

This is totally a misrep. I repeated several times that

I didn't remember the reason and didn't have time to look

.
There is a

huge

difference between that and not having a reason.
This is the same general type of opportunistic scum approach that FuDuzn used. Find a technicality and make a "case" out of it.

Looking at a case and seeing things similar to the ones that other people already saw is not sheeping.

Clarification: When I did the setup analysis I overlooked that 0 T's results in a mafia roleblocker. I was concerned about how many scum and not what kind.

[mykonian]

Before I actually read this post and respond to it I must say that I completely forgot about dave.

I didn't.

[BRantz]

So then dave, have you since gone back and double checked why you felt that way? Yeah. I agree you said I don't remember why and don't have time to look over and over, but really that is the same as saying I don't really have a reason unless you back it up at some point isn't it?

[davesaz]

Look at it from my point of view. If I run right off and look it up, then I'm bowing to pressure. And if I don't then I "don't have a reason". It's a no-win situation, and on top of that if I choose the "redo the research and take notes this time" I get to spend all that time gathering info that it's possible nobody will care about anyway.

If someone actually feels the info would be useful, then I'm willing to do it -- on my schedule.
Hawk fits the profile of people who resisted lynching FuDuzn, which provided the starting point.

[VysePresident]

Sorry for being absent. I was cramming for a TKD coaching certification I'd put off during the holidays & sickness. It ate up a lot of time. I'm catching up now.

[VysePresident]

Seriously guys? Dave?

Sure, he could theoretically be scum, but there's nothing supporting that. His play leans Town on its own, and he was obviously FuDuzn's first choice. You can cut off any single link, and it's still Town. This shouldn't be were we're looking right now. Scum is almost certainly one of Hawk, BRantz, or Tier.

VOTE: BRantz (L-1 again)

So, I've been rereading, and I think I'm okay with the BRantz wagon. #Duh.

Tier took a sharp turn towards Town after his recent contributions. It's basically what I've been hoping to get from him for a while now, and it's pretty good. A lot of them are things I've noted before, and the rest tracks pretty well, so I like it. #PullingAMyko (Sorry, couldn't resist. )

My gutread on Hawk is all over the place, but I agree that FuDuzn's treatment of the slot leaves me feeling better about the slot.

As for BRantz, well, Tier already hit most of the points that have me looking sideways at him but I'll elaborate anyway. If I rewind my reads back to when they actually made sense, I was actually toying with a FuDuzn/BRantz combo, because of the way BRantz gave a silly Town read for FuDuzn, and the way FuDuzn avoided giving a read on BRantz. His last read on FuDuzn also feels off. (During the period when we were nearing the lynch.) There was significantly more to the FuDuzn read than him not contributing.

I'm not actually bothered by the points TTH brought up regarding the lynch - I don't want to dive too deep into meta when half of you won't even know what I'm talking about, but I think it's worth noting that I feel BRantz is the kind of player who likes all his bases covered and double checked.

However, by extension, that leads me back into the problem I mentioned earlier, during my brief lapse into insanity. BRantz seemed too complacent for his playstyle, making reads I wouldn't have expected from him, and pretty easily at that. That goes against what I'd have expected from him, and it feels scummy.

Looking back, I think the reason I started Townreading him was because he started showing more engagement, and I correlated that with TownBRantz. Thing is, I'm not sure it wasn't scum engagement.

The one thing that has me hesitating on my read is that BRantz is pushing a really silly lynch at this point, but I don't know that it outweighs the rest. I'm going to review my Hawk & Tier reads, and maybe TTH, but I'm leaning here for now.

[Bicephalous Bob]

Official Vote Count

BRantz

(3): mykonian, davesaz, VysePresident

TierShift

(2): TellTaleHeart, ProHawk

davesaz

(1): BRantz

Not Voting

(1): TierShift

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2015-01-11 12:59:54)

[TellTaleHeart]

I was going to make a post last night but I fell asleep instead.

It's still TierShift, though.

[TierShift]

No, not really.
Brantz, I'd like you to claim.

I'll review my points about brantz and brantz's points on dave and then take a decision. Would be nice if you'd claimed by then, brantz.

[TierShift]

I still want you to elaborate on why I'm scum other than 'tried to prevent fu's lynch' and talk about my interactions with fu.