Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[Onion Bubs]

why are you bothering to vote for prawneater when you're expressing an interest to vote for Marquis with the game in its current state?

I'm not necessarily scumreading you, but that point reaaaaaaaaaaaally feels like coaching

I'll second the question, with sprinkles on top:
What was your reason for doing things the way you did, and

announcing

intent to vote later?

If you can, please explain why this is preferable to voting Marquis now, and moving your vote to Prawneater later if Marquis posts something to your liking.

I'm not sure which bit you two are asking about. Is it me placing the vote on prawneater, me being willing to move the vote to Marquis given certain circumstances, or me announcing that I would move my vote to Marquis in those circumstances?

• If it's the vote on prawneater, I viewed him as the scummiest player at the time and I already said why.
  
• If it's being willing to move the vote to Marquis, his lack of substance and his failed promises were iffy up to that point, but it would require him failing to make good on another promise for me to view him as the scummiest player. With the exception of my initial random vote on onion, my vote has always been on the player I think is scummiest and I don't have enough of a reason to change that.
  
• If it's me announcing my intention to move my vote to Marquis, it's partly because I was talking about the reads I was getting on certain people and my vote is relevant to my reads, and partly because I wanted to know if Marquis was actually going to be helpful and I figured applying some pressure would help me find out. I'd like to know why you think I should've kept it hidden.

A few people have argued for townies withholding stuff already but I remain unconvinced that withholding stuff is a good thing to do. Untrod Tripod's vague bullshit about the "long game" is missing the part where he explains how skilled scum would string me along and I checked the other posts in that block, Equinox's little piece underneath his quote of my post doesn't explain how withholding explanations when placing votes helps get a read off of someone, and I already addressed Derangement's post and since nothing was said in response to my response to his point a, I'm guessing he wants to wait until postgame to talk about that.

I'll look at the debate between Derangement and onion some time after my brain stops hurting from the combination of all of this and the passport office rejecting my renewal because of it not being completed in the boxed areas despite the fact that I did the application online so it couldn't have been outside the boxed areas. Not giving a specific time because my track record for that hasn't been good lately. If it helps, I studied propositional logic as a module at university and it was one of my best modules of the entire course.

No, there's no gifs in this post. I don't feel up to it right now.

[onion]

ok i'm going to make a post that isn't just arguing formal logic with derangement, but i'm totally going to argue formal logic with derangement later.

I'm also going to put aside my theory on Llama and Tripod a second as well, because while i'm pretty sure i'm right, i'm also pretty sure i'm expressing it wrong in formal logic because i don't know formal logic.

plus it would be pro-town of me to not tunnel vision that one and only thing. its my favorite case at the moment, but other cases exist.

Bubs, i request Firefly reaction gifs. firefly is better than animaniacs. i also agree with you that townies should be transparent, and to do otherwise is anti-town.

TellTale, in swapped your vote from Llama to Marquis in 248, but said that you suspected Marquis, CBD and Llama in the next post. why is Marquis a better vote than Llama? say something about CBD while you're at it.

GIF, you flat out say in 079 that that post is full of negative things about llama, reasons why he looks scummy, and then you say <snip> which is you saying you think he isn't scum, not explaining why you think he isn't scum. you even disclaim it as probably gut which is still not a reason. this is the reason i'm asking you to explain it because you HAVE NEVER EXPLAINED IT. so instead of being useless, how about putting some effort into this game and making your reasons known.

GIF, don't be a llama, defend your point of view.

-=THE LURKING NOBLEMAN CASE=-
Futan was very inactive, and was replaced by Marquis who is also very inactive. its been 300 posts now. Marquis' only action has been to ask what people thought about him 209 and to townread Equinox in 231. Marquis is a lurker. lynch all lurkers.

If we are going to lynch a lurker, D1 is the time to do it. it would be lazy, however, to focus on a policy lynch with so much time still on the clock. daylight burns for no man or something like that. Assuming Marquis really does post useful information tomorrow, this'll probably all go away.

Also, what's up with this kinda aborted Prawnowagon? Bubs was there because Prawn sucks at explaining things, which is fine, and then hopped off to go be part of that newfangled Marquis Wagon thats hitting number one in the charts in europe. Llama is there because (hey he actually explained why!) he's upset about Prawn calling his votes 'preservation votes'. Finally, Equinox is there because prawn wants to lynch one of the two onions, which was probably a joke but maybe not.

So i'd really like to hear more from Prawn.
@Prawn, in 139 you list townreads for Telltale, Equinox, Tripod, Derangement and GIF, and a suspicion of Llama. Do you still hold these views? Care to add/subtract/change/be useful about any of these? its been a long time since then. Why are you voting for Llama?

[Untrod Tripod]

I'm not sure which bit you two are asking about. Is it me placing the vote on prawneater, me being willing to move the vote to Marquis given certain circumstances, or me announcing that I would move my vote to Marquis in those circumstances?

If it's the vote on prawneater, I viewed him as the scummiest player at the time and I already said why.
If it's being willing to move the vote to Marquis, his lack of substance and his failed promises were iffy up to that point, but it would require him failing to make good on another promise for me to view him as the scummiest player. With the exception of my initial random vote on onion, my vote has always been on the player I think is scummiest and I don't have enough of a reason to change that.
If it's me announcing my intention to move my vote to Marquis, it's partly because I was talking about the reads I was getting on certain people and my vote is relevant to my reads, and partly because I wanted to know if Marquis was actually going to be helpful and I figured applying some pressure would help me find out. I'd like to know why you think I should've kept it hidden.

announcing an intention to vote for someone within x number of hours while parking your vote somewhere else "for the time being" is a fairly ineffective way to apply pressure. it either looks like coaching or like you're not actually convinced of your read. If you want to vote someone just do it.

I didn't say ANYTHING about keeping it hidden. I'm saying if you want to pressure someone, use your vote. don't just talk about how you might do it one day.

[Untrod Tripod]

it's way more effective to say "I'm voting for you now, talk me into taking my vote off" than it is to say "I'm gonna vote you if you don't say something I like!!!"

[GuyInFreezer]

Dodging tonight. Will do stuff tomorrow.

[prawneater]

I've played with Marquis recently.

His lack of play is not alignment indicative, but if he doesn't improve or replace out, he's a fine lynch.

[petroleumjelly]

Day One, Vote Count #13

Marquis – 5 – TellTaleHeart, GuyInFreezer, Derangement, Untrod Tripod, Onion Bubs
LlamaFluff – 2 – prawneater, onion
prawneater - 2 - LlamaFluff, Equinox
onion – 1 – ChannelDelibird

With

11 alive

it takes

6

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 5, 2015, at 6:45 AM PST

.

Not Voting – 1 – Marquis

[TellTaleHeart]

TellTale, in swapped your vote from Llama to Marquis in 248, but said that you suspected Marquis, CBD and Llama in the next post. why is Marquis a better vote than Llama? say something about CBD while you're at it.

You talk too much and you don't listen enough.

[Derangement]

• If it's the vote on prawneater, I viewed him as the scummiest player at the time and I already said why.
  
• If it's being willing to move the vote to Marquis, his lack of substance and his failed promises were iffy up to that point, but it would require him failing to make good on another promise for me to view him as the scummiest player. With the exception of my initial random vote on onion, my vote has always been on the player I think is scummiest and I don't have enough of a reason to change that.
  
• If it's me announcing my intention to move my vote to Marquis, it's partly because I was talking about the reads I was getting on certain people and my vote is relevant to my reads, and partly because I wanted to know if Marquis was actually going to be helpful and I figured applying some pressure would help me find out. I'd like to know why you think I should've kept it hidden.

Thanks for answering all three.
I was interested in hearing all of these answers.

Tripod already said most of what I wanted to say about this topic, so I'll just follow it up with a pair of short questions, if that's okay.

What did you hope to accomplish, by voting Prawn?
What do you hope to accomplish, by voting Marquis?

[LlamaFluff]

I've played with Marquis recently.

His lack of play is not alignment indicative, but if he doesn't improve or replace out, he's a fine lynch.

So you actually haven't said anything remotely game related in over a week at this point, unless you want to say "hey POE OB and Marquis might be scum" as something substantial. Sorta ignored what I asked you, what I called you scum for, what happened to your onion/onion bulb policy lynch... you know... things related to the game.

Prawn wagon needs to happen, quite a bit more likely than Marquis. Both players are lurking in their own way (prawn barely posting, Marquis posting more) but are not posting content. Yet prawn gets no votes? If one of Marquis/Prawn are scum its probably Prawn right just on the merits on him somehow getting away with being able to lurk this one out while people are interested in Marquis.

[Marquis]

this is a reminder to myself to be here tomorrow morning and also tot ry and get emotionally attache dto this game

[Derangement]

this is a reminder to myself to be here tomorrow morning and also tot ry and get emotionally attache dto this game

This makes me a sad panda.

Please stop stalling and play, replace out, or be lynched.

[onion]

You want an emotional attachment to the game marquis? then start liking Derangement. That guy is as pro-town as you can get. his posts are rich in data and highly useful. its a blessing to have him in this game, and we're totally going to win because of him unless he's scum. Scum!Derangement would be hella bad, but if he can pull off this sort of style and still win as scum, he really deserves it. Derangement, keep being badass.

you make me sad TellTale. maybe i should explain why my questions and why you answering my questions are pro-town actions. you want to be pro-town, right? RIGHT?!

Your vote and 'explanation' are 100 posts old now, time to re-affirm your thoughts. It is in the town's interests to know what you are thinking, and for you to show how the evidence changes your opinions slowly over time. Even if your vote doesn't change, your reasons for that vote might, and its best to keep that open and obvious so that if you are scum, you are easier to catch.

My requests for repeated information is an attempt to detect people's thoughts changing over time. i can't learn that without you telling me stuff. if your thoughts change too fast, it means you are flakey and wagon hoppy and scummy. if your thoughts never change, it means you are tunnelvisiony and not paying attention to the game. but if you have a slow, constant change going on, which is fueled by new evidence and arguments, and you show it, that's pro-town and you can help us win with it.

i know you already posted stuff about stuff 100 posts ago, but please post more stuff about stuff. show us how your thoughts have changed since then, or defend why they have not.

[Equinox]

A few people have argued for townies withholding stuff already but I remain unconvinced that withholding stuff is a good thing to do. Untrod Tripod's vague bullshit about the "long game" is missing the part where he explains how skilled scum would string me along and I checked the other posts in that block, Equinox's little piece underneath his quote of my post doesn't explain how withholding explanations when placing votes helps get a read off of someone, and I already addressed Derangement's post and since nothing was said in response to my response to his point a, I'm guessing he wants to wait until postgame to talk about that.

Spoiler: Not relevant to this game

It's a little difficult to explain how without concrete examples, but what I meant by getting a read by withholding explanations is that people react to naked votes (or other declarations) based on what they

think

is the reason for the vote, rather than what they

know

from what I've told them. This can be telling of the mindset that they're using to approach the game and, logically, their win condition. If I explain the exact reason why publicly, I take away the opportunity to figure out what is going on in other people's minds; the underlying theory is that the people who are approaching the game with the same goal as I am will more likely than not think similarly, after accounting for play styles and such, and scum won't by virtue of having to think differently. Derangement seeing LlamaFluff's point about onion slipping town is a good example.

This is better explained in post-game, since talking about this spoils the signal:noise ratio. The main reason I'm doing this now, in a spoiler, is because I suspect that your and others' suspicions of this method can be disastrous in late game. Transparency is great for reading the people who are being forthcoming with thoughts, but it can be manipulated.

Good luck with your passport.

Cuz Onion is prob town.

I don't have strong scumreads other than LF. Most folk are townreads so I'm willing to POE lynch Onion Bubs or Marquis.

Okay. If you've already eliminated down to LlamaFluff, Marquis, and Onion Bubs, why did you talk about lynching one of onion or Onion Bubs?

this is a reminder to myself to be here tomorrow morning and also tot ry and get emotionally attache dto this game

What the fuck, Marquis? You read the game yesterday and had "thoughts," so where did those thoughts suddenly go now?

[ChannelDelibird]

I guess I kinda dared you to lynch me, didn't I? That's the first time I've failed on that challenge to myself. Life has been kicking my backside for a few days but I'll look over the last few pages tonight.

[prawneater]

You basically made statements that no matter who I was voting I was scum because it would be a "preservation vote" unless I was voting a player with no votes. The reaction of actually being concerned about how you are being read meta wise concerns me as if you are town, there would really be no concern about what you are doing.

This is a strawman. I said that I don't like how you're playing - that you're not trying to figure out the game.

As for your second point, we're talking about a hypothetical "what if I was GIF in his spot as scum/town". I don't see how you can infer scumminess from that, and if this is the basis for your vote, it's a bad vote.

If you want to vote me because I'm not posting enough, you can say that. But then I ask, do you actually have scumreads, or are you just OMGUS/voting low-hanging fruit?

Cuz Onion is prob town.

I don't have strong scumreads other than LF. Most folk are townreads so I'm willing to POE lynch Onion Bubs or Marquis.

Okay. If you've already eliminated down to LlamaFluff, Marquis, and Onion Bubs, why did you talk about lynching one of onion or Onion Bubs?

Asking for opinions/bad reaction testing.

[ChannelDelibird]

What a weird entrance from Marquis. Hard to see what use this would be to town as a starting point for scumhunting; think it more likely that it's an attempt to look purposeful upon arrival (and well done on pissing that up the wall afterwards).

I like the apology for the drunken housemate from onion a lot more than I liked the original post. He can probably be town

Seriously, I don't believe that Llama thinks UT seriously asked for a hammer and it bugs me that he keeps pushing it here.

In reply to this from TTH: Up until a couple of years ago, I'd have confidently said I prefer town but I've got a bit better at playing scum since and now I really don't mind what alignment I get. The other players are much more likely to affect my enjoyment than my own alignment.

Re: UT, a) thank you for reading that wall so I didn't have to and b) agreed.

I'd like to know who onion thinks are the lurking scum at this point and why he's not naming names to advance the possibility of their lynch, if people don't go with him on Llama.

@UT:

Read on me?

[ChannelDelibird]

@Equinox:

Read on me?

[ChannelDelibird]

I agree that my current vote is outdated. UNVOTE: onion Just looking into the prawneater case at the moment but I'd definitely consider voting for either of the other two, with probably a slight preference for Marquis.

[Untrod Tripod]

if you would consider marquis, you could

I dunno

hammer him

[Untrod Tripod]

I actually would like an onion bubs lynch today to be perfectly honest, but people who play like marquis is doing here piss me the fuck off

[ChannelDelibird]

if you would consider marquis, you could

I dunno

hammer him

Definitely on the table. Might do it tomorrow.

[Marquis]

so yeah if you guys haven't figured it out yet i lied about reading yesterday and planned to read and post this morning a few hours ago but then surprise school issues shot that plan through. figured if i said i had at least read it would make me being quickhammered less likely, but that was pointless in hindsight so i'm admitting it now.

i'm vt.

sorry pj. i thought i could get into this more quickly.

for what it's worth i actually am like halfway through with reading though - hold off on hammer until i can get reads out and stuff

[Untrod Tripod]

this game is 14 pages, marquis

get it together

[Marquis]

300 posts!

300!

i can't deal man

...yeah i'm lazy af. should have done it when i sent pj the pm