Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

toolenduso · Post Post #1825 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:30 pm

In post 1764, Aquanim wrote:Why would having me vote for Metal make you more comfortable?

Because you're my top townread.

In post 1764, Aquanim wrote:Also, what is your actual read on Boonskiies?

Scumleaning. Part of me thinks that this style of play doesn't come from scum who are concerned about looking townie, but my personal experience with Boonskiies makes me think it more likely that he could be the kind of player who would replace into a scum slot like this and just decide to have fun with it -- in fact, his play fits in pretty great with that explanation.

In post 1775, Aquanim wrote:
@Toolenduso
: I assume you think Eektor and Metal are two of the three scum (if that is not true, say so). Who do you think the third mafia is?

That is true, though I haven't re-read their ISOs for associatives yet because I don't like to do that before flips.

The third would be between TDA and Boon, with an edge toward TDA. But ideally we would have a scumflip or two to do associatives with before I go sifting through my third-tier scumreads.

Aquanim · Post Post #1826 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:33 pm

In post 1825, toolenduso wrote:
In post 1764, Aquanim wrote:Why would having me vote for Metal make you more comfortable?

Because you're my top townread.
...

What actual difference does it make if I vote for Metal, though?

toolenduso · Post Post #1827 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:33 pm

In post 1783, TheDudeAbides wrote:
In post 1720, toolenduso wrote:
In post 1713, TheDudeAbides wrote:I think that MC believing the cute cop ... (isn't) scummy.

Why not?

Well, I don't think that there is any validity to Eelyse's argument - I doubt that there is any reason to think that scum are more likely to believe a crazy claim than a townie, and on top of that, I think that MC's explanation is reasonable - that he played on a site where sometimes standard roles have funny names or something like that.

Why do you think that it's scummy.

Because I do think that scum are more likely to believe a townie's claim wholesale, and newbscum wouldn't be familiar enough with the roles to recognize which ones are clearly fake. But the actual claim aside, it's the gut reaction of believing another player's claim that has me worried -- town have cause to be suspicious (with some exceptions, obv) whenever another player claims.

toolenduso · Post Post #1828 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:37 pm

In post 1826, Aquanim wrote:
In post 1825, toolenduso wrote:
In post 1764, Aquanim wrote:Why would having me vote for Metal make you more comfortable?

Because you're my top townread.
...

What actual difference does it make if I vote for Metal, though?

Well for one, it eliminates a slot on the wagon for scum to bus. Two, I feel more comfortable voting with my townreads. I know that doesn't change anybody's alignment, but it makes me feel more comfortable. Kind of like how I would be suspicious if a couple scumreads of mine voted to lynch another one of my scumreads.

Aquanim · Post Post #1829 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:41 pm

I think there's a very real chance that my voting for Metal would put two town votes (myself and Elyse) on a townie (Metal), so I think I'm going to pass.

Elyse · Post Post #1830 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:46 pm

Yeah...not really digging that lol

Elyse · Post Post #1831 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 1:49 pm

I want to lynch metal but tool wanting another vote on there is making me uncomfortable.

Aquanim · Post Post #1832 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:06 pm

So, there's a wallpost so wally coming up that I've divided it into separate posts. (Nested spoilers were giving me trouble and I doubt they'd get read anyway.)

The first three posts are votecount analysis, the one after that is associations, and the last one is some actual conclusions.

I haven't come to any 100% conclusions and pretty much every part of it could use some more thought, but at three or so days to deadline it's time to stop mucking around.

Aquanim · Post Post #1833 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:07 pm

DAY 1: THE BEGINNING

Spoiler:

Not sure if there's much to be made from this. Early-game posturing mostly.

Spoiler:

IIRC Oddmusic was looking like mislynch bait, but it was pretty earlygame - it wouldn't suprise me to see scum on the Odd wagon though nor would it suprise me a great deal for there not to be any.

Spoiler:

If I were mafia I wouldn't touch a nascent RadiantCowbells wagon with a ten-foot pole. No matter how it turns out, you're going to smell afterwards. Taly on the other hand looks like tasty mislynch bait.

DAY 1: TALY VS METALCYANIDE

In post 800, MonkeyMan576 wrote:
Vote Count 1.12 - up to post #799.

Taly[4]: Elyse, mykonian, InsidiousLemons, toolenduso[L-3]
metalcyanide [4]: RadiantCowbells, Aquanim, Boonskiies, Taly[L-3]
RadiantCowbells[1]: Metalcyanide
Not Voting[3]: eektor, pisskop, TheDudeAbides

With 12 alive, it requires 7 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Monday, March 16th at 5:10 PM USA Mountain Time, or when a lynch occurs

To put it bluntly, Taly was mislynch bait. Especially considering the Metalcyanide wagon gained momentum long after the Taly wagon started, I would be shocked to not find any scum on the Taly wagon. Mykonian has already flipped town and I think Elyse is town, so that leaves Toolenduso and InsidiousLemons.

It would be plausible for the scum to be not voting but keeping their options open on Taly.

Spoiler: TheDudeAbides

TheDudeAbides could plausibly have gotten away with voting Taly after these posts but I don't think it was his Plan A.

Spoiler: Eektor

Eektor was pushing for an Oddmusic lynch, but null-newb-read Taly; after Oddmusic flipped town, he needed somewhere else to go... and nevertheless townread Taly. The read was hardly so strong that he couldn't have flipped on it but nevertheless I don't think it was his Plan A to do that either.

Also worth noting is that despite possibly having the space to do so neither of them flipped on their Taly read when a Metal lynch seemed likely. I find it hard to believe that a scumteam which didn't have the guts to jump on Taly to save their scumbuddy Metal would instead choose to try to lynch a slot which has been AFK for the past week. If Metal flips scum they're screwed - if Insidious flips town they're still screwed since they just pushed a wagon on a townie who wasn't around to defend himself. Looks like a lose-lose play to me.

It is worth noting that Metalcyanide did not switch onto Taly until quite late in the piece; if he were mafia I do not think he would be reluctant to vote Taly unless one (or even more so, two) of his partners were already on that wagon.

Conclusion

: I think that mafia would want at least one of their players on the Taly wagon; if there were not, I think at least one of them would be positioning themselves to get on. None of TDA, Eektor and Metalcyanide showed much interest in the Taly wagon, which leads me to believe that at least one of {Elyse, Tool, Insidious} is mafia.

Aquanim · Post Post #1834 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:07 pm

DAY 1.5: METALCYANIDE vs INSIDIOUSLEMONS

In post 1268, MonkeyMan576 wrote:
Vote Count 1.19 - up to post #1267.

InsidiousLemons[5]: eektor, pisskop, TheDudeAbides, Mykonian, Metalcyanide(L-1)
metalcyanide [4]: Aquanim, Boonskiies, Elyse, toolenduso, (L-2)
Mykonian[1]:RadiantCowbells,
Not Voting[1]: InsidiousLemons

With 11 alive, it requires 6 votes to lynch.
Day ends on Thursday, March 19th at 5:10 PM USA Mountain Time, or when a lynch occurs

This votecount's been done to death a bit, but my thoughts are:

1) It'd be a pretty ballsy scumteam to push all-in on lynching a slot which has been AFK for a week. If Insidious flipped town the backlash on everyone on that wagon would be strong.

In particular, if Eektor or TheDudeAbides are mafia with Metal, why did they show no interest in the Taly wagon, but go hard for Insidious?

2) I don't see Eektor and InsidiousLemons as scum together, for obvious reasons. (Why start a wagon on your AFK scumbuddy at that stage?)

3) I'd really like to believe that at least one of these wagons was on scum.

There's probably more to say about this part, though.

Aquanim · Post Post #1835 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:07 pm

DAY 2: METALCYANIDE vs ???

In post 1455, MonkeyMan576 wrote:
Vote Count 2.03 - up to post #1457.

Metalcyanide[3]: Boonskiies, Elyse, Aquanim
Boonskies[1]:Metalcyanide
TheDudeAbides[1]: mykonian
eektor[1]: toolenduso
Not Voting[4]: Bellaphant, pisskop, TheDudeAbides, eektor

Mod Notes: TheDudeAbides is V/LA until Tuesday. Bellaphant is replacing InsidiousLemons.

With 10 alive, it requires 6 votes to lynch.
Day ends on Monday, April 6th at 7:00 PM USA Mountain Time, or when a lynch occurs

There was seriously not a whole lot of movement on anyone but Metalcyanide at this point. On the other hand, TDA was V/LA, Bellaphant had just replaced in, and Eektor had been pressing for an InsidiousLemons lynch before the replacement.

I'm not really sure what to make of this situation - the lack of movement elsewhere might suggest Metal town, but I'm not entirely sure where his hypothetical scumbuddies would have gone here, either.

DAY 2: METALCYANIDE vs MYKONIAN

In post 1633, MonkeyMan576 wrote:
Vote Count 2.07 - up to post #1632.

Mykonian[5]: Aquanim, Metalcyanide, TheDudeAbides, eektor, Bellaphant[L-1]
Metalcyanide[3]: Elyse, toolenduso, pisskop
TheDudeAbides[1]: mykonian
Aquanim[1]: Boonskiies

Mod Notes: All V/LA's are over.

With 10 alive, it requires 6 votes to lynch.

Day ends on Tuesday, April 7th at 7:00 PM USA Mountain Time
, or when a lynch occurs

As far as I see, there are two possibilities here.
(1) Metalcyanide is scum, and his scumbuddies probably got on the Mykonian wagon pretty hard. I dunno if I believe all three would get on, though. That points the finger at Eektor, TDA and maybe Bella.
(2) Metalcyanide is town, mafia don't give a damn about this lynch, and since Mykonian is kind of scary to lynch the mafia are unlikely to get on in large numbers. That points the finger at Tool, Boonskiies, Bellaphant and Elyse.

Aquanim · Post Post #1836 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:07 pm

Some Associations

Hypothesis 1: Boonskiies and Metalcyanide are not scum together.

I don't see why Boonskiies would bus Metal in preference to the Taly wagon day 1, or go apeshit in response to the Mykonian wagon day 2. Boon does do whatever the hell he likes, though, so this isn't ironclad.

Hypothesis 2: Eektor and Toolenduso are not scum together.

This one is not quite 100% either but Tool's had it out for Eektor all game.

Hypothesis 3: Eektor and Bellaphant are not scum together.

I don't see why Eektor starts a wagon on the InsidiousLemons slot after the Taly modkill if they're scum together. The push today could conceivably be a bus but the day 1 play would simply make no sense.

Hypothesis 4: Elyse and Metalcyanide are not scum together.

Well, duh. I don't think Elyse is scum at all, for that matter.

Given these hypotheses, consider the possible scumteams. I have divided them based on Metal and Bella's alignments for clarity.

Case 1: Metal is mafia and Bellaphant is town.

This rules out Elyse and Boonskiies, leaving:
Metal-Eektor-TDA
Metal-Tool-TDA

Case 2: Metal is town and Bellaphant is mafia.

This rules out Eektor.
Bella-Tool-Boon
Bella-Tool-TDA
Bella-TDA-Boon
Some team with Elyse.

Case 3: Metal and Bellaphant are both mafia.

This rules out Boonskiies, Eektor and Elyse.
Metal-Bella-Tool
Metal-Bella-TDA

Case 4: Metal and Bellaphant are both town.

Some combination of {Boon, Eektor, TDA, Tool, Elyse} that doesn't pair Eektor and Tool.

I expect some more of the above can be ruled out as well.

Salient point: unless the scumteam is Elyse-Boon-Eektor or something, and assuming all of the above hypotheses are correct,

one of TheDudeAbides and Toolenduso is mafia

.

Aquanim · Post Post #1837 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:07 pm

On a {Toolenduso, Bellaphant/InsidiousLemons, Boonskiies/Aeronaut} scum team

Boonskiies' vote day 1

Boonskiies scumread me immediately upon replacing in. Why did he vote for the Metal wagon I was pushing?

This post

In post 1759, toolenduso wrote:...
Aqua, I know you haven't exactly been gung-ho about a metal lynch, but would you consider it today? I kind of want to vote for him and I would feel more comfortable with you on the wagon.

My first thought when reading this was "Pretty please put Metalcyanide at L-3 so my scumteam can hammer".

Votecount analysis

This team was spread out for Taly vs. Metal, concentrated on Metal for Insidious vs. Metal, spread out and mostly not on Mykonian at the end of day 2. I can't see anything about this team that doesn't make sense votecount-wise.

Boonskiies' case on Toolenduso

The immediately apparent thing about this case was that Boonskiies decided he wanted to scumread Tool, then trawled through Tool's ISO looking for things he could stretch to fit a scum agenda. At the time, I believed this was to draw attention away from his "scumbuddy" Mykonian, which obviously was disproved by the Mykonian flip.

On the other hand, if Metal and Mykonian are both town, then I can well imagine Boonskiies bussing the hell out of his scumbuddy in that situation.

Tool's lack of reaction to this case sticks out like a sore thumb too. Sure, he mentioned it... but either he should be scumreading Boonskiies (in which case he should have done something about it by now) or townreading Boonskiies (in which case he should be concerned that a townie is voting for and scumreading him at MYLO). I suppose maybe I can buy that Tool's just more interested in pursuing Eektor, but... meh.

Process of Elimination

I believe that Elyse and TheDudeAbides are town. Recent interactions with Eektor have persuaded me that he is likely also town. That leaves Metalcyanide, Toolenduso, Bellaphant and Boonskiies.

Metal-Tool-Bellaphant is the only other likely possibility given those townreads. It's possible, but... meh. Tool has looked pretty genuinely interested in lynching Metal.

There is also the point that

Pisskop

,

Mykonian

, Eektor and TheDudeAbides all townread Metal. I am not so stuck on myself as to think I can't have been wrong about Metal. It's possible he's scum... but at this stage I feel it is less likely. His posts towards the end of both days looking desperate to get a flip on someone, and his push on Elyse today being pointlessly suicidal if he's mafia, tend to support that theory.

On the other hand, Metal and especially TheDude have been lurking hardcore day 3, and that does not please me at all.

Assuming that the scumteam includes Bellaphant, I think at least one of Boonskiies and Tool just about has to be mafia. I could conceivably replace Boonskiies with Metalcyanide or mayybe TDA/Elyse, or replace Tool with Elyse (as the other person on neither Insidious nor Mykonian) or TheDudeAbides (perhaps a scum bussed IL and voted Mykonian early, and I don't think it's Eektor). I should probably give further consideration to theese possibilities.

toolenduso · Post Post #1838 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:07 pm

Well why not? The game's been moving at a snail's pace, it doesn't seem like people are interested in a no-lynch and I don't think they're interested in an eektor lynch either. What do we have left to do before we move forward, besides this statement about everybody's top two scumreads?

P-edit: that was @Elyse.

Elyse · Post Post #1839 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:11 pm

It just made me uncomfortable because it looks like you're trying to get two townies on a wagon. And then a potential scum team could hammer.

It's not changing my read on you but it gives me pause. You are right in that we have to lynch someone sometime though.

Reading Aqua's stuff now...

Aquanim · Post Post #1840 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 2:12 pm

Oh, and individual reads lol. Boonskiies has been even more useless than his usual but I doubt that's even alignment-indicative. He's overloaded on games at the moment I believe so it's enirely possible his scumgame would be below par too, especially in a game it looked pretty clear he was winning anyway.

Bellaphant didn't really seem to push anything at all day 2, tried to sneak onto the Mykonian wagon with an avoiding-nolynch vote despite scumreading Mykonian, and I don't feel like she's trying to work out the game.

I was townreading Tool day 1 but I think I now townread him less than everyone else, basically. Except maybe Metal, but I'm hard put to see Boon and Metal as scum together.

Boonskiies · Post Post #1841 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:04 pm

In post 1825, toolenduso wrote:
In post 1764, Aquanim wrote:Why would having me vote for Metal make you more comfortable?

Because you're my top townread.

In post 1764, Aquanim wrote:Also, what is your actual read on Boonskiies?

Scumleaning. Part of me thinks that this style of play doesn't come from scum who are concerned about looking townie, but my personal experience with Boonskiies makes me think it more likely that he could be the kind of player who would replace into a scum slot like this and just decide to have fun with it -- in fact, his play fits in pretty great with that explanation.

In post 1775, Aquanim wrote:
@Toolenduso
: I assume you think Eektor and Metal are two of the three scum (if that is not true, say so). Who do you think the third mafia is?

That is true, though I haven't re-read their ISOs for associatives yet because I don't like to do that before flips.

The third would be between TDA and Boon, with an edge toward TDA. But ideally we would have a scumflip or two to do associatives with before I go sifting through my third-tier scumreads.

eh...here is a game I replaced into a scum slot and decided to just have fun with it. I don't see how this playstyle of mine is showing I'm having any 'fun' with this game.

Aquanim · Post Post #1842 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 3:21 pm

It might be instructive to read Boonskiies' town ISO in the recently completed game Mini 1655: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=61070

I particularly liked the part where he said his reads were good when he replaces into games. That was a good laugh.

Boonskiies · Post Post #1843 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:06 pm

Aqua...that was Day 1...pay attention. LLL...I don't really consider my 'replace in/activity burst' to start unless it's Day 3 or on. Day 1 is nothing...

Aquanim · Post Post #1844 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:14 pm

<yawn>

Bellaphant's probably the better lynch but whatever.

VOTE: Boonskiies

Boonskiies · Post Post #1845 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 6:18 pm

yeah, fuck this.

VOTE: Boonskiies

Aquanim · Post Post #1846 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 7:15 pm

Well, that's two votes for Boonskiies, and if he's town it's in range for a scum hammer.

I think I simply don't care. If Boon is town, we were losing this game anyway.

Boonskiies · Post Post #1847 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:00 pm

not really. i've pointed out the scum team. whatever. dont want to get yelled at from list mods post game, so i'll

unvote

absolutely no motivation to come back to his thread. watch for their reactions/push on me now.

Aquanim · Post Post #1848 (ISO) » Tue Apr 21, 2015 8:06 pm

Even if you are both town and right, we would still lose the game, because you've been utterly unconvincing.

eektor · Post Post #1849 (ISO) » Wed Apr 22, 2015 1:07 am

@Aqua I find case 2 and 3 more likely than your case 1 and 4. In respect to Case 4, like you said earlier the indecision on the lynch between metal and IL makes me think one of them had to be scum. If you noticed IL wasn't around and voting. If IL was scum, that would have hurt the scum team's chances of pushing the counterwagon, which is why I think we ended with a no lynch and why I think out of those two IL was scum.

Also, I don't think tool can be paired with metal because when given the choice between metal and IL, he voted for metal. Only way he can be paired with metal is if he was scum with both metal and Bella. I think lynching Bella is the better way to go.