Newbie 1596: Exotic Birds (Game Over)

[Wanderer-nl]

Skold, since you've got the most experience here, how often do scum teams assign the nightkill to their least suspicious member? As often as they can, right?

This I don't get.

[Plotinus]

Skold, since you've got the most experience here, how often do scum teams assign the nightkill to their least suspicious member? As often as they can, right?

This I don't get.

The least suspicious person on the team is the least likely to be tracked (or jailkept) so they're a better choice for the person to do the night killing. It might be too much to assume this is how they make that choice everytime, but maybe they make that choice most of the time.

If we can determine who the least suspicious person in each of the possible teams is, we can do some process of elimination, not of a person but of a team. I asked skold because he's seen more games than I have, but I could go visit the private threads from completed games and see how often the decision is made that way.

[Skold]

Unless scum has reason to suspect town are trying to find the least suspicious member, I think they will always set it in the least suspicious member.
@Plotinus who of Argos, Wyvernite and I think myself, are you most willing to lynch today?
The case on Wyvernite is logical, if it s true. Though I'd like some quotes, because I've seen town get lynched based on a case with no basis in fact because nobody bothered to fact check it.

[Plotinus]

i am feeling lazy so i'm not going to read actual games to see who was the most or least suspicious, just looking at the private threads for cases where both were alive and they explained why one or the other was doing the nk, skipping ones where no explanation was given, only looking at newbie games because it's too much work to look into what setup some other game was using.

in support of my theory:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p6581950
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p6680380
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 9#p6644709
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p6699475
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p6661057 (the couple posts after this one explain there is suspicion on the one who isn't doing the kill)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p6610600

other:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p6721226 being tracked would have messed with one scum's fake claim
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p6667128 can't kill and roleblock in the same night so if they want to roleblock someone the other needs to do the kill (in another game this was allowed though...)
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p6581671 i can't really tell

made it two pages back before losing interest but it seems like in games where scum don't know that there isn't a tracker/jailkeeper (games where there is one of those, or games where they haven't had flips yet so they don't know), outside of some strange circumstances (like House's fake claim), they pick the least suspicious person to do the kill.


preview-edit: @Skold: Wyvernite. Because I'm pretty sure it's not you and Argos together.

[Plotinus]

Spoiler: quotes mostly from wyvernite about the things we've been talking about today with minimal commentary

As much as I love letting everyone marinate as singer says, and analyize everything, since you're just now coming into a game 14 pages of posts to slog through I'll let it slide this time. but if I catch such defensiveness as "pls don't put me L-1 so I can read everyone" again, I will vote for you. and then throwing out an OMGUS to town in general. Nothing about 329 bodes well with me. I guess time will tell though.

@wanderer what exactly changed between posts 328, and 281, that made you change your mind on DCL/saad's slot? I don't like the inconsistency here
VOTE: Wanderer

he was referring to these two:

Usually when everybody agrees on a lynch this fast, it means we're lynching town. However, with how saad is behaving this game I wouldn't see it past scum to be happily lynching the useless partner.

You know, I did like 312.

I'm afraid we have come to the point where the saad/Swagrid/lights-slot is so messed up that we are best off lynching it. I don't want this to happen and I hope Lights is able to work with it. Looking at her joindate, this is her first game on the site, I hope it's not too rough.

he could've hammered here but didn't:

I'll throw this out there for now, my two biggest scumreads are wanderer, and DCL. I'm not quite as sure of everyone, since I haven't been here to read stuff. I'll catch-up on reads for everyone by tomorrow but for now my vote sticks where it is.

the votecount around that time:

Vote Count 2.5

deep-city-lights 3 (Skold, Plotinus, Argos)

Wanderer-nl 1 (Wyvernite)
Argos 1 (deep-city-lights)
Skold 1 (singersigner)

Not Voting 1 (Wanderer-nl)

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is in (expired on 2015-05-02 10:00:00).

question he asked me that looked like backpedaling since he'd just said dcl was one of his main scumreads:

Sure, but you've been coming off like a person who likes a challenge, an experienced player who created an alt to have some fun (which is totally fine and I'm not asking who you're an alt of because that's your own business). I think you've played this slot extremely well, and if you'd started the game in the slot maybe we wouldn't be lynching you today because

the slips you've made have been small enough that they could have passed under the radar

.

What slips are these exactly?

my answer to it:

@Wyvernite: the ones I talked about in 470 and 476. She asked us to list the reasons we thought she herself was scummy without reference to predecessors so I did. I don't know if they'd be enough all by themselves if she was starting from a clean slate, but she wasn't.

[Wanderer-nl]

Skold, since you've got the most experience here, how often do scum teams assign the nightkill to their least suspicious member? As often as they can, right?

This I don't get.

The least suspicious person on the team is the least likely to be tracked (or jailkept) so they're a better choice for the person to do the night killing. It might be too much to assume this is how they make that choice everytime, but maybe they make that choice most of the time.

If we can determine who the least suspicious person in each of the possible teams is, we can do some process of elimination, not of a person but of a team. I asked skold because he's seen more games than I have, but I could go visit the private threads from completed games and see how often the decision is made that way.

How? I honestly can't follow your thought process here.

[Plotinus]

I'd like to hear from Wyernite and Argos before finishing that line of thought, but basically if the tracker-or-jailkeeper didn't target singer last night, process of elimination can happen because it will be known (to them) that somebody didn't go somewhere. That's not the same as a cop innocent, but if that somebody is the more widely townread in a pair of two then it makes that pairing less likely than other pairings, I think.

Skold, Wyvernite, Argos, if you were voting now who would it be for?

Maybe 4 of us will agree on something, maybe only 3 will.

[Wanderer-nl]

I also think it's maybe a little weird for Wyvernite to not place the hammer while he was scumreading dcl. He was (is?) also scumreading me so why would he trust me to hammer? Maybe he was waiting for singer, maybe he wanted to get his reads in first, but I highly doubt both since it was already pretty clear dcl would be the lynch and while Wyvernite was voting somewhere else, he was never against the bandwagon.

Skold and Argos, how do you guys feel about this?
456 is where Wyvernite was scumreading me and dcl.
244 is where he posts his reads.
Also, Wyvernite's solo-look might be because he has a rather inactive scumbuddy (one of you 2)

[Wanderer-nl]

@Plotinus, ok I see where you're getting at I think. I'm okay with waiting for Argos and Wyvernite.

[Skold]

Even if I wasn't scared of a potential quickhammer, I probably wouldn't be voting. Give Wyvernite time to defend himself. Just a reminder, to avoid voting we need to declare intent to hammer as a group. (Wanderer -1/3 intent to hammer, Skold - 2/3 intent to hammer, Plotinus 3/3 intent to hammer) < that kinda idea.
@Wanderer Wait you'd put Wyvernite as a scum buddy with Plotinus or me for inactivity? I'd say that if you were going from there, Argos or myself.

@Plotinus except that since we've had an NK each night a jailkeeper/tracker non-result wouldn't give us much. It could just be (also not unlikely) that the other scum buddy did the NK so it can't really create a town bloc.

[Wanderer-nl]

@Skold, no look who I'm addressing the post to. You and Argos.

[Plotinus]

I am completely on board with hearing what Wyvernite (and Argos) have to say. and with nobody voting until we've all said who we plan on voting for and we've had 3 people declare intent to hammer.

The process of elimination shouldn't decide anything by itself, but it can be a piece in a larger puzzle.

[Skold]

Oh wow.
pedit: I suppose.

[Argos]

I also think it's maybe a little weird for Wyvernite to not place the hammer while he was scumreading dcl. He was (is?) also scumreading me so why would he trust me to hammer? Maybe he was waiting for singer, maybe he wanted to get his reads in first, but I highly doubt both since it was already pretty clear dcl would be the lynch and while Wyvernite was voting somewhere else, he was never against the bandwagon.

Skold and Argos, how do you guys feel about this?
456 is where Wyvernite was scumreading me and dcl.
244 is where he posts his reads.
Also, Wyvernite's solo-look might be because he has a rather inactive scumbuddy (one of you 2)

My biggest problem with Wyvernite so far has been what seems like a nervousness to be seen as bandwagoning anyone. He put his support behind a DCL lynch without backing it up with a vote and puts votes out there for people others are mostly town reading to seem useful without actually contributing to a lynch. The latter can also be explained by him trying to think outside the box and stir up conversation, which is a noble goal imho. Not a lot to go on right now, but I honestly am pretty confused on how to approach things today.

[Wanderer-nl]

Looking at Wyvernite's 39, then his posting throughout this game, and then singer's 449, I believe singer was actually on to something..

[Wanderer-nl]

@Skold: I don't really like how you haven't answered my question yet. Can you tell us your thoughts on Wyvernite?

@Argos: Who would be your first choice to vote for right now?And why?

[Argos]

@Skold: I don't really like how you haven't answered my question yet. Can you tell us your thoughts on Wyvernite?

@Argos: Who would be your first choice to vote for right now?And why?

Wyvernite I guess, for the above reasons. Given how bad my reads have been thus far I'm not prepared to trust first impressions this time around, though.

[Skold]

@Skold: I don't really like how you haven't answered my question yet. Can you tell us your thoughts on Wyvernite?

I've made my thoughts on Wyvernite kinda clear. He's scum. I'm not going to comment on every single thing you find because that's too time consuming and unnecessary.

[Wanderer-nl]

This feels like a repeat with dcl guys.
If Wyvernite is scum, then why isn't his buddy making a case on someone else? Or at least be more critical of the things said so far?

[Plotinus]

Maybe 4 of us will agree on something, maybe only 3 will.

4 means at least 1 scum is happy with this lynch. scum are hoping to lynch town today for a perfect win.

[Plotinus]

Wyv, come share your reads with the rest of us please.

[Argos]

This feels like a repeat with dcl guys.
If Wyvernite is scum, then why isn't his buddy making a case on someone else? Or at least be more critical of the things said so far?

Is everyone other than Wyvernite already accounted for then? Agreed, kind of odd that we all find him suspicious right now. My problem is that I've been reading you and Plotinus as town (maybe taking that for granted more than I should?) which would only leave a Skold-Wyvernite team, and I don't think Skold would be so quick to bus Wyvernite, though I might be wrong.

[Skold]

Wait, does that mean you are scum reading yourself? Weird bro...

[Skold]

Everyone post their suspect scum team. It's LYLO so I doubt scum could use it much.
Wyvernite, Argos
Argos is mainly via process of elimination.

[Wanderer-nl]

I want everyone to consider everyone. We can't get it wrong today. Nobody is clear no matter how town they look, goes for me as much as you guys.

@Plotinus: do you have a theory on why singer was the NK?