Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[abuse]

A little lost currently after initial skim of the last few pages.

@Thor, why the full support of a counterwagon? This concerns me quite a bit.

signing up?

be sure to read thoroughly. things have changed quite a bit. not doing so might cost you dearly

I read the thor/math/zoro thingie.
I don't see what changed.
What am I missing?

[abuse]

what do you mean by "signing up" ?

willingly initiating wagon on yourself so there would be counterwagon to Dino's

lolok.

[abuse]

Went through tool's ISO.
His mindset seems logical. I don't think I'd be up for his lynch right now, there is not enough info on him to make a confident vote.

The only real concern is he seems to not be in a rush to learn stuff about other people. Like, at all.

I am much more worried about this now, after skimming through some of his previous games.
He's much more aggressive when town. And just as defensy when scum. :/

[Lapsa]

What am I missing?

supposedly - reason for building a counterwagon and importance of it

[abuse]

What am I missing?

supposedly - reason for building a counterwagon and importance of it

I am not against building a counterwagon. I am at a loss why victor wants a counterwagon though.
Anyway, leaving the question for victor to answer.

[Lapsa]

fine by me, buttwipe

[CB]

CB seems off, but not sure if it's because he's playing several games at once and doesn't pay enough attention here, or if he's scum.

What do you think I have missed?

-----------------------------------

CB shouldn't call my ice cream flavor choice as little informative, call vighit on me yet base his vote because of it at the same time

unless he can show how my presence in this game has degradated to cheap lynch bait till #263 ofc

Your shit post inducing a scummy push don't get you town points.

People don't need to change their posting for me to reevaluate on them.

i don't really need your town points - they won't change the fact that your vote is based on this induced scummy push

and that doesn't add up with me being completely useless

Being unintentionally useful one time, great....

Also you were just trolling no one is going to get a strong read on you and you would remain a question mark. It was more about the liability then usefulness.

[Lapsa]

Being unintentionally useful one time, great....

Also you were just trolling no one is going to get a strong read on you and you would remain a question mark. It was more about the liability then usefulness.

as if you knew my intentions

[CB]

Being unintentionally useful one time, great....

Also you were just trolling no one is going to get a strong read on you and you would remain a question mark. It was more about the liability then usefulness.

as if you knew my intentions

What were they?

[abuse]

CB seems off, but not sure if it's because he's playing several games at once and doesn't pay enough attention here, or if he's scum.

What do you think I have missed?

It's more like the stuff you choose to focus on, compared to the rest of the thread. That's the best I can explain it really. My gut feels something off about it, but I can't quite put it into words.

Also, what exactly is your read on Lapsa now?
Why are you ignoring tool, thor, Shinobi, Cthulhu and BBT?

A few days ago you said you would try to go through ISO's "Tonight", and at that point you only had Frogger, Texcat, me, math, zoro and plot read in some way.
Anything new to report?

[Lapsa]

Being unintentionally useful one time, great....

Also you were just trolling no one is going to get a strong read on you and you would remain a question mark. It was more about the liability then usefulness.

as if you knew my intentions

What were they?

exactly

[CB]

CB seems off, but not sure if it's because he's playing several games at once and doesn't pay enough attention here, or if he's scum.

What do you think I have missed?

It's more like the stuff you choose to focus on, compared to the rest of the thread. That's the best I can explain it really. My gut feels something off about it, but I can't quite put it into words.

Also, what exactly is your read on Lapsa now?
Why are you ignoring tool, thor, Shinobi, Cthulhu and BBT?

A few days ago you said you would try to go through ISO's "Tonight", and at that point you only had Frogger, Texcat, me, math, zoro and plot read in some way.
Anything new to report?

Yea i guess that is fair I have been pretty lazy.

I am trying to sort out how to read Lapsa. Kind of lost on that one.

Thor, Shinobi nothing has really pinged me out and their pushes make sense so Town.

Minor pings but nothing substantial. Mostly Null.
BBT called me his top town off of one post because we reached a lot of the same conclusions but I think our conclusions were fairly different but he hasn't really posted enough to get a read.
Cthulhu seems lurky to me. His opening post was fairly similar to mine so I am surprised he didn't get any pressure from it while I did.
Tool focuses a lot on the joining of wagons as his major scumtell while not on a wagon himself and his first post was sheeping and joining a wagon.

------------------------------------

Being unintentionally useful one time, great....

Also you were just trolling no one is going to get a strong read on you and you would remain a question mark. It was more about the liability then usefulness.

as if you knew my intentions

What were they?

exactly

exactly

[texcat]

I agree that Mathdino's wagon feels a bit off.
Some people's thinking/acting seems off aswell.
I hope I'll have a moment today to look into it more closely.

P.S. will be V/LA starting from friday to wednesday. (national drinking days in my country.)

Could you explain what you mean by "off"? How is Math's wagon off? Who are "Some people"? And how are they "off"?
I'm just not sure you said anything here. If you did it was so vague that I didn't get it.

National drinking days! Can I immigrate there?

Went through tool's ISO.
His mindset seems logical. I don't think I'd be up for his lynch right now, there is not enough info on him to make a confident vote.
The only real concern is he seems to not be in a rush to learn stuff about other people. Like, at all.

I hate to keep harping on this, but I can't see any possible way for soemone to call Tool's mindset logical. What is logical about saying that there were some good points and logical reasons for voting for Mathdino and then saying that's a good place to look for scum? What is logical about looking for scum amongst those that make good points and have logical reasons? I'm not saying that there can't be scum there, just that it's not where I would start looking for scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

prodge ffs

[Plotinus]

UNVOTE: Lapsa I still don’t really get him but he’s actually contributing now.

Nulltown on chthulu after finishing reading its ISO because it seems to be trying to figure things out. I could see where it was coming from in 189 even though I came to different conclusions myself. I feel like the town has been dividing itself into two camps over this stuff and I think seeing who is in which camp and why will help me decide if I’m in the right camp or not. 284 points to something that worried me, too. I like 300, because I was thinking the same when I saw mathdino’s post assuming 10:3. A while ago I was looking at setups on the wiki and I saw lots of different ones like 8:3:2 (jungle mafia) and 9:2:2 and 9:3:1 and 9:4 and 10:3 and 11:2 mountainous so yeah. And then chthulu makes this very point in 311. great.

This is also a catchup post.

Lapsa’s 325 UNVOTE: Lapsa. Glad to see some contributions and scum hunting, man.

toolenduso’s 339 is good analysis. I like this approach.

toolenduso’s 344 also makes a lot of sense (though it seems like a bit too much work on day 1 for too little gain because we don’t have any flips to use for wagon analysis yet) though I think fro99er is just newbslipping.

fro99er’s 345 no, but it is best to be having some thought process that you can point to, preferably something you noticed by yourself without anyone’s help.

abuse’s 355 I think he’s just trying to communicate with me, actually, trying to draw me out of my shell or something. the thing is i wasn’t not posting because i didn’t know how, i just tend to have a weak early day 1 and i wasn’t feeling well on top of that. anyway, i don’t really need coaching. i’ll either obvtown myself eventually without help or i won’t.

fro99er’s 370 if you still think this then make a case.

fro99er’s 378 what the fuck. i’m having no part in this. i’m in your scumpile yet you start a counterwagon for me and then you’re on again off again buddying me but refusing to remove me from the mislynch pool by talking in specifics about what i’m like. if there’s not something in the next few pages that makes it clear this is a newbslip (which is how i was viewing your previous posts) then I’m coming after you. because from where i’m sitting it looks like you’re trying to artificially create associatives between us so that if you flip scum you’ll take me down with you. like the only thing holding me back right now is that if this is your first time being scum i’m not sure you’d think of that on your own unless you have daytalk or something.

lapsa’s 396 oh man i want to tell the abelian semigrape joke here but people will think i’m crumbing something i’m not if i do so instead i will ask you what’s yellow, sour, and equivalent to the axiom of truth?

Zorn’s lemon

cb’s 412 i think we each may have comented on each other’s postgame commentary with stuff about how we were spectating or something but i don’t really remember because it was a while ago. + ~ongoing~.

VOTE: fro99er

probably town: abuse
maybe town: toolenduso, lapsa, math
could be town: chthulu, zoronos, thor, shinobi
could be scum: bbt, texcat,
maybe scum:
scum: cb, fro99er

[Zoronos]

284 points to something that worried me, too. I like 300, because I was thinking the same when I saw mathdino’s post assuming 10:3. A while ago I was looking at setups on the wiki and I saw lots of different ones like 8:3:2 (jungle mafia) and 9:2:2 and 9:3:1 and 9:4 and 10:3 and 11:2 mountainous so yeah. And then chthulu makes this very point in 311. great.

Those are all scummy posts from Cthulu, tbh.
10:3 is a very reasonable assumption for a 13 player game, so calling someone scum for making it is specious at best. Dino made a post that I marked to come back to about that argument, primarily because I had the opposite experience as him; I have never seen a Town player make the 'How do you know how many scum there are?!?!' case. (The reason the argument is bad is because it hinges on something non-alignment-indicating. Town can and do make assumptions about how many scum are in a game, so voting someone for those assumptions is a bad case.)

311 - Arguing further about the setup is scummy, because it's posting that looks like content, but isn't. Debating how many scum there might be doesn't do anything to actually find scum, but appears to be contribution. It's no good. You can look at that and go, "Yeah, makes sense". Because it 'makes sense' and seems reasonable, it gives towny vibes. But it doesn't actually do anything to find the scum, so it isn't towny. It's at best null. Setup spec over content is a classic scum play.

I guess cat is out of the bag - I'm interrogating Cthulu because I'm trying to get a better idea if he's scum or just making a bad case / posting dumb stuff about setup. After his initial catchup post and a slap at some people accusing CB, he hasn't proactively gone out to sort players. He's answered engagement, but he's not out there doing work to sort. His answer to my question about why he chose to slap at Abuse and Lapsa for their questions was okay, but not as deep as I was hoping. I'm trying to draw out his other reads, if any, to analyze.
Also he's voting / FoS'ing nobody but my town reads, (Lapsa, you, Math), so, there's that too.

[Plotinus]

oh. this is the first 13 player game i’ve played in so i don’t know how many are usual i just know what’s on the wiki.

Oh, wait. In my one offsite scum game i did actually make a how do you know how many nightkills there are going to be case against someone on day 1 and it turned out we were in surprise multiball with wincon changing SKs and that he did in fact know how many nightkills there would be but i was making that argument as scum and i thought i was just going after a townie when i was doing it so your points make sense to me. I guess i’ll bump chthulu down a notch then into could be scum. I was remembering the “i made that argument once and i was right” part and forgetting the “I was scum then” part.

yeah, chthulu’s in the could be scum group then.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Alright, got some time.

Can you explain these reads for me pls?
Specifically the bolded.

My town read on Plot is fairly weak but it's based on her vote of Lapsa in 61 (which was my immediate gut reaction when I read it) and 70 was a good post. Not the part about the crumbing VT spec, but the part where she says she was testing Fro99er. This feels like it comes from town.

Abuse mostly came down to 155, in which he scum reads and votes Zoro for what I feel are pretty bad reasons. Especially when I feel quite good that Zoro is town.

Tool is down to early game, in particular the sheeping of Math in 19 and I really didn't like 24. I also had no idea how he was town reading Lapsa in 119.

Talk to me about Tool, I have him in my ??? pile.

See above.

1. Not sure I understand. Most of the people voting me seemed to pretty clearly be wagoning, and I wasn't sure about Plot, and I figure asking questions in RVS is better than twiddling your thumbs until someone else does.
2. I feel as if continuing to restate my case against Frogger will give people the impression that I'm still scumreading him, so I'm going to assume people are reading my 158 and won't misunderstand me.
Idea is that Frogger responded to accusations by claiming that his scumhunting will show that he's town... and then proceeded to make a bunch of overdefencive posts that contain 0 scumhunting and all defence. By his self-meta, I took that to be very non-townish.

I guess I just didn't understand your position. I mean, if I'm in your position, I'm much more interested in looking at the people who are wagoning me early then looking at one person who voted to make a two-man wagon because they voted with me.

I mean, you hardly gave Fro99er time to scum hunt before you started accusing him of being (over) defensive. Being defensiveness is not a scum tell, I wish people would stop trying to make out that it is. If somebody attacks you, you're going to defend yourself, and for some people, defending yourself comes before you start the scum hunting.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

It’s interesting that he mentions me but he doesn’t ask me any questions or interact with me yet. I want him to be town because we’ve been town together at least 3 times already and it was really fun but unfortunately I am null on BBT.

I don’t know about his push on Fro99er in 193; fro99er’s evolving read on me didn’t seem all that quick in real time.

BBT, why are you town reading CB he was throwing shade on a whole bunch of slots in his only post?

I'm town Plot. There, I hope I eased your worries.

As for Fro99er;

Plotinus is in my nullscum pile as of now. I do like Ploti's pressure of Lapsa and agree with it. I do like he's being truthful about my play. I didn't like his passiveness on me, and the weak test. I did not like the pointing out of the crumb either.

Zoro - agree RE: Plotinus.

Ploti's honesty reads towny to me. He provided a link to the vanilla crumb from a previous game, he's got the right mindset about Lapsa when he responded to you about "towning up the slot on page 3". I can possibly write off his early passiveness toward me as just truthful honesty instead. He eventually backed up a read on me as well.

I'm not sure how you don't see that as a quick turn around. In 102 you're 'nullscum' and in the space of 9 posts you're now 'towny'. Hmm.

I already stated why I thought CB was town; a lot of his thoughts in his catch up post were the same as mine as I was catching up. This means he is likely viewing the game from the same mindset that I am, so he can be town.

Okay so.
firstoff UNVOTE:

I'd want to start by explaining thoroughly the previous shinobi/abuse/plotinus thingie concerning lapsa's crumb, because I think this is important.
First off, I want to make it clear that I know how lapsa plays. The main thing I can tell you, is that pretty much everything he does right now is null. Everything you think he is saying that seems scummy, is null, everything he says that seems townie, is also null. Things he says are quite likely lies, but could be truth aswell, In any case - there is no way to know

yet.

The reason I poked plotinus, about him voting for lapsa was to see if he was newbish or scum. Because his vote was fishy.
I know Lapsa, many people here do not. My conversation with him was to find out. His defense of the lapsa vote was that neither vanillas nor mafia benefit from a claim such as that. That is correct- i pointed that there is another role that would benefit from it. He understood what I talked about, that should've been it.
The interesting part though, is that shinobi intervened, and followed up trying to get me to say what exactly do I mean by that. I honestly think that what I said was obvious. Getting me to say it out loud, can be classified as both PR hunting, or trapping me for pointing to PR's instead of scum.
The only thing is - again - I know how Lapsa plays, so basically I can tell you with 99.9% certainty, that that was not a crumb at all. I knew this pretty much for sure, they did not. This allowed me to judge their reactions about the scenario. Overall, from this alone, there's a picture of plotinus and shinobi. Plotinus came out with a slight town lean, while shinobi with a slight scum lean from that alone. Though Shinobi's posts interacting with zoro put him back in the null zone.

This was an awful lot of words to say 'Lapsa is null, it's too early to read him and I'm leaning town on Plotinus and null on Shinobi via interactions around vanilla crumb.'

snip, reads list

The timing of this reads list is icky. It's like you saw Math do one and thought 'Ohh, that looks town. Let me try it.'

UNVOTE:

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Kind of where I am at right now I have only skimmed the last couple of pages though:
Town: Frogger, Texcat
Scum Lean: Math, Abuse
Scum: Plot, Zoro

I will say just based on some interaction between the people on my list there is for sure town in my scum reads right now since I don't see a lot of those people as scum partners. So I don't feel too confident about them right now.

Yeah, you're right. Take Plot and Zoro out of your scum reads. Probably Math as well.

congratulations, you qualify as my first real scumread. gonna tunnel you for the rest of the game

VOTE: CB

official reason: you shouldn't base your votes on so little information

LOL. After your 126, you really shouldn't make accusations like this.

@CB - why is Zoronos scummier to you than Mathdino? I am not a fan of either slot - but my issues with Zoronos are basically the same as my issues with Mathdino, except Mathdino appears to have an agenda while Zoronos is just being wonky for no apparent reason beyond desperate Mathdino defense...which would suggest Mathdino as scum anyways, so.

Clarify?

No. There is no way Zoro/Math are scum together.

[Plotinus]

I'm town Plot. There, I hope I eased your worries.

yay

I'm not sure how you don't see that as a quick turn around. In 102 you're 'nullscum' and in the space of 9 posts you're now 'towny'. Hmm.

I didn’t notice at the time but i just went back and the only post of mine between those two was me goading Lapsa about twilight trolling, and those posts are only 25 minutes apart. hmm is right.

I already stated why I thought CB was town; a lot of his thoughts in his catch up post were the same as mine as I was catching up. This means he is likely viewing the game from the same mindset that I am, so he can be town.

I guess. Well, looking forward to see if that changes or not as your catchup proceeds then.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I agree Plotinus was noncommittal (I even pointed it out that Plot was being passive on his read toward me, and I had to push Plot to give a read about me). This is not a misrep by CB.

Then CB makes the point that Plot votes Lapsa for softing vanilla, which is true. Also not a misrep.

CB makes the point that Plot saw VT soft VT in a game of his, yet votes Lapsa for softing VT. Also not a misrep.

The rest is a bit of theory/WIFOM discussion.

Plot's read on CB seems forced and OMGUS'y. He doesn't state WHY he thinks CB is Lynchhunting instead of scumhunting (examples or explanation would be nice), and feels like CB is going for low hanging fruit. Who is low hanging fruit here? He hasn't since interacted with CB, when I'd expect Plot would want to push a scumread, no? He's also hardly pushed on Lapsa since the fruit crumb other than post 252 calling Lapsa out for reading comprehension. But even that wasn't a push on Lapsa as scum, just more a clarification of Plot's BBT stance.

Unfortunately, I like my vote better served here.

VOTE: Plotinus

This looks like 4 votes on Plotinus, putting him at L-3 if I can count correctly.

This is pretty solid posting from Fro99er.

I'm at a loss in coming up for a town!Mathdino motivation for making such a strong declarative statement regarding the chances of a random slot being scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Mathdino

Is this the worst reasoning for a serious vote in the history of Mafia? Probably not. But it's pretty bad.

Also: I'm disliking Abuse more (for his "HUGE RED FLAG" BS on page 11). Also disliking Lapsa more for the apparent misrep on CB.

You should vote Abuse instead.

i think i can answer the low hanging fruit / lynch hunting thing too actually.

The way you started this post is pinging me pretty hard. It's like you thought about answering Fro99er's accusations the first time around but couldn't think of a decent explanation and then you had another think about it and something came to you that you thought you could use.

[Plotinus]

i think i can answer the low hanging fruit / lynch hunting thing too actually.

The way you started this post is pinging me pretty hard. It's like you thought about answering Fro99er's accusations the first time around but couldn't think of a decent explanation and then you had another think about it and something came to you that you thought you could use.

was having trouble translating thoughts into language at the time, that’s all.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Update: if i were to be on a wagon, itd be CB.

Why?

Because in addition to 10:3 being a thing, 9:4, 9:3;1, and 9:2:2 are things as well. Focusing on the former has the appearance of you having knowledge of the makeup of the scum team. IOW, it has the appearance of a scumslip.

If you really are town, you might want to avoid assumptions like that in the future.

This is weak. I approach every mini with the 10:3 mindset and it's only ever been multi-ball once (and that was just over a year ago now).

Yes. I felt that all of your reads indicated a town mindset and way of thinking about the game. I just happened to disagree with literally 10/11 of your conclusions. I think Shinobi is playing fine but lean town, I think Zor is town, texcat is scumread, Thor is null, tool is town, okay CB I actually agree with too, BBT is null to light scumread, and we apparently both think Frogger is town but for very different reasons, reasons different enough for you to think that my reasons for townreading him are BS, as I understand?

I don't get the Tex scum read or the Tool town read. Can you talk about them?

so here's a contribution:

VOTE: Mathdino

you've been warned multiple times and I'm sick of shielding your shit

Thor, you have a sheep for the rest of Day1

Wow. Definition of an opportunistic vote.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

was having trouble translating thoughts into language at the time, that’s all.

Hmm, I was correct to read that you had 'two' attempts at answering that accusation then?