Mini 1687: Refraction Mafia (WINNER!)

[Zoronos]

Your case is hung on a personality trait - I don't play paranoid when town. If you're assuming I will be paranoid when town, well, you're going to be real disappointed.

Anyway,
Plot, Frogger, and Math are quite likely town. Frogger more so than Plot (Frogger is trying to be heard, check his interaction with Abuse when Abuse town read him. Frogger wants responsibility), but Plot is probably still town so w/e.
Shinobi and BBT are lean town. I also choose to file Lapsa as lean town because his posting makes me laugh.
Tool - I like that you're doing analysis, but I need you to step out of theoretical and more into actionable. The best way I can describe it is that you're trying to town off in a bubble.

Cthulu and Thor have been pushing cases using non-alignment-indicating stuff. If I die, keep an eye on them to push something reasonable.
Sorry BBT, but I disagree with your read on CB. I think he's likely scum. I think Plot had a good point; CB's opener was just a temperature-of-thread survey of people that have had suspicion voiced on them. Other than abuse, it looked like he was just scattergunning into my town reads. I don't think there's a reasonable chance he's scum with Thor though, so if CB flips scum Thor is probably clear. I do think there's a chance he's scum with CD though. That's why my first post to CD was to ask about his CB read.

Abuse was doing a lot of OMGUS voting / casing early, but my gut is telling me my early read was wrong. No idea why. Looking back over his ISO I can't figure it out, but heh, gut says null, so null.

Until he comes back and finishes answering my questions, VOTE: Cthulu Dreaming for having the scummiest case and the least scumhunting.

[abuse]

Abuse was doing a lot of OMGUS voting / casing early, but my gut is telling me my early read was wrong. No idea why. Looking back over his ISO I can't figure it out, but heh, gut says null, so null.

I'm actually laughing now.

Also it is a lie that you looked over my ISO, because you STILL do not answer where you need to.

Zoro's tone of posting has changed completely from the impression i got from him at the beginning. At first he gave the aura of self confidence, and was pushing stuff, attacking people, now he looks more like a lapdog. Not sure what would make it happen. Also vote is still on me, even though he hasn't said anything to or about me in like 10 pages.

Hi zoro.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zoronos

[Zoronos]

I have no idea what you wanted me to answer there.
Can you phrase your question in the form of a question?

[abuse]

Especially now, that you changed your vote from him. That implies, that your idea isn't to get him lynched while having another counter-wagon for info. What IS your idea?

To get Zoronos lynched with another counterwagon for info.

If your read of math has not changed (as you have stated), then why leave his wagon yourself?

Because my read on Zoronos changed.

so now Zoronos > math for you.
Guess that explains it. My thought was that you wanted zoronos as the counter-wagon.

[Zoronos]

Also that post was pretty insulting.
Not very nice to call people lapdogs.

[abuse]

I have no idea what you wanted me to answer there.
Can you phrase your question in the form of a question?

why was your vote on me for over 400 posts, while it was based on completely stupid reasons at the start of the game, while you did not even push me at all during these 400+ posts.
Also, why are you lying that you read my ISO, because it is pretty obvious that you have done no such thing, considering you don't have an opinion of my alingment after everything I've said.
Why are you not pushing.. anyone.. really... ?

PEDIT : It wasn't meant as an insult, but It's cute that you only now noticed it. Especially considering you read my ISO before, right?

[Shinobi]

pdodge

[Zoronos]

I have no idea what you wanted me to answer there.
Can you phrase your question in the form of a question?

why was your vote on me for over 400 posts, while it was based on completely stupid reasons at the start of the game, while you did not even push me at all during these 400+ posts.
Also, why are you lying that you read my ISO, because it is pretty obvious that you have done no such thing, considering you don't have an opinion of my alingment after everything I've said.
Why are you not pushing.. anyone.. really... ?

PEDIT : It wasn't meant as an insult, but It's cute that you only now noticed it. Especially considering you read my ISO before, right?

Oh, I noticed it then. I just didn't bother saying anything because I didn't care. Being a jerk isn't alignment indicating.

My reasons for my vote being on you at the time the vote was made were pretty good. You can call it stupid all you want; it wasn't. BBT saw the same thing I did, so did Math. You were making non-scum-hunting posts, so you got voted. Then you were voting everyone that suspected you. Not particularly towny behavior.

I didn't move my vote to Cthulu when I initially suspected him because I find doing so causes people to give more defensive answers to questions, regardless of their alignment. I wanted to get answers out of someone that was obviously reticent about playing, and voting them straight off isn't conducive to getting that done. But well, more damage done letting Plot labor under a misconception than by making clear my motivation in questioning, so cat had to come out of the bag.

You can yell 'liar!' at me about reading the ISO, but, well, it's the case, so, *shrug*. If you can prove it, go for it. (You can't, so, w/e.)

[Thor665]

Your case is hung on a personality trait - I don't play paranoid when town. If you're assuming I will be paranoid when town, well, you're going to be real disappointed.

It's a very valid point though - you are hard defending a guy based off something that the guy you're hard defending is even claiming is not true, and you fail to account for this or discuss it. That's weird if it's simply 'confident town'. So weird I think it's quite valid to call it scummy.
I'm calling it scummy.

My thought was that you wanted zoronos as the counter-wagon.

Currently I want Zoronos as the main wagon, but would not complain about a Mathdino counter.

[Zoronos]

It's a very valid point though - you are hard defending a guy based off something that the guy you're hard defending is even claiming is not true, and you fail to account for this or discuss it. That's weird if it's simply 'confident town'. So weird I think it's quite valid to call it scummy.
I'm calling it scummy.

That's not why I'm hard defending him. You never even asked why I had a town read on him. You demanded I respond specifically to your case, and I responded to the specific points in your case. My interpretation of the events around your case is apparently different than his, but *shrug* you demanded my opinion, I gave it. I am not at all surprised it differs from Dino's.
I have a town read on him because of his attitude and behavior. He was clearly attempting to scum hunt early, his responses to my posts read like enthusiastic town (rather than scum buddying), he attempted to play cooperatively with his town reads, and faced with data changed his mind. I follow (most) of his thought processes, and they seem pretty transparently towny.
When pressure was on him, he continued trying to scum hunt, rather than just playing pure defense. Pretty towny behavior, imo.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Update: Lapsa is now very squarely in my strong townreads list, consisting of {Zor, Plot, Frogger, Lapsa}.

What? How is Lapsa a strong town read?

The point being that I still see you using other player's arguments multiple times as partial or whole justification for your votes. Which can reflect: A) Desire to get on the good side of the players you're following, B) Pre-planning to avoid responsibility for those arguments in the future, C) Difficulty developing fake reads, or D) All of the above.

Given this, why do you not have a problem with Lapsa using Thor's case to vote Math? (with some added colours)

@texcat: You still have yet to give ANY reads other than tool even after I said so twice. That's what's most concerning about the latter half of your ISO.

I think this applies to Thor as well. As far as I know, he scum reads you and Zor and leans town on Plotinus. That's it. He's barely interacting with anyone outside of his math/zor discussion.

CB seems off, but not sure if it's because he's playing several games at once and doesn't pay enough attention here, or if he's scum.

What feels off about CB?

Thor, what do you think about Lapsa ?
I can't seem to find your stance on him anywhere.

Thor lacks a stance on many players.

Went through tool's ISO.
His mindset seems logical.

Umm, you don't think scum can think logically?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I am much more worried about this now, after skimming through some of his previous games.
He's much more aggressive when town. And just as defensy when scum. :/

But not worried enough to vote because...

probably town: abuse
maybe town: toolenduso, lapsa, math
could be town: chthulu, zoronos, thor, shinobi
could be scum: bbt, texcat,
maybe scum:
scum: cb, fro99er

Plot, can you explain the town reads on Abuse, Tool & Lapsa.

Your reads are near enough the polar opposite of mine and that is a worrying sign indeed.

[Aeronaut]

VC 1.7

VoteCount 1.7

Mathdino

-

Cthulhu Dreaming

(L-6)

toolenduso

-

texcat

(L-6)

CB -

Mathdino

(L-6)

Cthulhu Dreaming -

Zoronos

(L-6)

Thor665 -

Shinobi -

texcat -

Plotinus

-

Shinobi, CB

(L-5)

Fro99er

-

Plotinus

(L-6)

BlueBloodedToffee -

abuse

-

Lapsa

-

Zoronos

-

Thor665, Lapsa, abuse

(L-4)

Not Voting

-

toolenduso, BlueBloodedToffee, Fro99er

With 13 alive it takes 7 to lynch!

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2015-06-28 23:00:32)

Cthulhu Dreaming is V/LA until Saturday
Abuse will be V/LA until until Wednesday

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Could you elaborate on that?

Context: Talking about why I liked Fro99er's 280

I liked it because it was solid analysis. The fact that Fro99er even went back to check to see if what Plot was saying was true earns him town points.

Well yeah, a lot of D1 is speculation. We don't have flips. I still feel like voting patterns are a good thing to consider when looking for scum.

They're not because you don't know what the votes mean.

Zoro lacks the paranoia I expect out of town he is too confident on his town reads on too little

This really pings for me.
You can be town now.

Unvote: Mathdino
Vote: Zoronos

Wanna sheep me while I sheep you?

Thor is probably scum. Or he's having a really, really bad game. Probably scum though.

Also, where did this daytalk stuff come from? Scumslip

VOTE: Plotinus

Requesting a sheep on here

I don't see the scum slip. But I kind of like the vote. Usually, Plot makes herself town pretty quickly and I just haven't got that vibe from her this game at all.

For the one question that didn't have an answer in there Math's wagon feels off TO ME, because an extremely large percentage of first lynches with similar reasoning end up in a town lynch, in my experience. I want to hear from Victor before I think more about this.
for now : UNVOTE:

What reasoning would this be?

[Fro99er]

I don't see the scum slip. But I kind of like the vote. Usually, Plot makes herself town pretty quickly and I just haven't got that vibe from her this game at all.

I keep flip-flopping on Plot (obviously), and that does make me nervous. Also, I completely agree about Plot's readlist. It's practically opposite mine.

[Fro99er]

Guys - I'm going to catch up on the game later tonight, with a non Plotinus focus.

[toolenduso]

Tool - I like that you're doing analysis, but I need you to step out of theoretical and more into actionable. The best way I can describe it is that you're trying to town off in a bubble.

I have absolutely no idea what that means. Are you using "town" as a verb...?

The point being that I still see you using other player's arguments multiple times as partial or whole justification for your votes. Which can reflect: A) Desire to get on the good side of the players you're following, B) Pre-planning to avoid responsibility for those arguments in the future, C) Difficulty developing fake reads, or D) All of the above.

Given this, why do you not have a problem with Lapsa using Thor's case to vote Math? (with some added colours)

Glad you asked because people are treating my analysis like the sole basis of my scumhunting is whether or not people sheep and I don't know if I've been wording my posts confusingly or what. So here it goes:

-Lots of people sheep. Sheeping, by itself is not scummy.
-Frogger has sheeped multiple times.
-Frogger has also switched his votes after criticism from other players.
-When I look at all of this, along with Frogger's overall posting, it looks like his movements are calculated to appease people.

Well yeah, a lot of D1 is speculation. We don't have flips. I still feel like voting patterns are a good thing to consider when looking for scum.

They're not because you don't know what the votes mean.

And yet they are a reflection of the way a player is playing the game. They tell us what a player is thinking in a way that their words often don't.

Not understanding why so many people see frogger as town.

[Plotinus]

UNVOTE: Fro99er. don’t feel like voting fro99er anymore. texcat has moved up a bit too.

I don't see the scum slip. But I kind of like the vote. Usually, Plot makes herself town pretty quickly and I just haven't got that vibe from her this game at all.

yeah, i haven’t efforted this game as much as usual though i did some today. It’s not alignment indicative. i think i have been playing more like i did in elemental mafia (was hanging back there a lot) and I think it’s because that was one of the last games I started. I’m better as a replacement because I can hit the ground running, usually with pages of notes already done. This game, I’m behind on my private notes (except for fro99er’s).

i’m having trouble telling certain slots apart. For example, Shinobi and Chthulu are both coloured the same way in my head which is weird because the colours are usually at least partially avatar based and green and purple aren’t that close to each other, so I need to figure out if that means something or if it’s just more noise to sift through.

Or I need to catchup on my notes because I felt like peoples reads were dividing into roughly two camps and like if I could sort everyone based on stances they’ve taken (including refusal to take a stance) on the various major events so far there might be something in there.

Everything is getting under my skin today/yesterday. offline, too. probably tomorrow too and maybe the next day will suck, then i’ll be less jumpy.

probably town: abuse
maybe town: toolenduso, lapsa, math
could be town: chthulu, zoronos, thor, shinobi
could be scum: bbt, texcat,
maybe scum:
scum: cb, fro99er

Plot, can you explain the town reads on Abuse, Tool & Lapsa.

Your reads are near enough the polar opposite of mine and that is a worrying sign indeed.

I didn’t like abuse for a while at the start and i think i need to reread him when i’m not tunnelling fro99er but i liked some of his later stuff. meh, skimming it now i’m less sure about his push on fro99er than i was when i wrote that. move him down a notch then.

I liked lapsa’s coloured numbers thing, how he quoted people and pointed to things that didn’t match up. i didn’t like his earlier posting but i like that he’s trying to contribute and making original points. part of the townread is rewarding him for contributing and scum hunting.

tool seems to approach the game a lot like I do, kind off in a corner rearranging shapes in his head until things start to make sense and that’s probably not alignment indicative but it looks so familiar to me that it’s hard not to appreciate it. he also seems to be scumhunting. Liked 339 from him, though I think information like that will be more useful on a later Day when we have flips.

Even if you disagreed with my fro99er push, did you understand where I was coming from?

I think some of my other reads have slid around a little since then too but i’m not sure which ones (this is mostly a problem in the null section)

It’s harder to read you when you’re stretched so thin like this, I mostly read you as being exhausted which isn’t alignment indicative, but it worried me that you were agreeing with CB and even he didn’t think the agreement was all that strong. want to reread him before voting him though.

don’t snipe at me, though. if you think i’m scum, make a case or vote me or something, don’t just talk about how i’m worrying you.

You should know that I’m pretty hard to mislynch, BBT. Even when I’m not being obvtown. (I have never been lynched or nightkilled before)

[Zoronos]

In post 525, Zoronos wrote:
Tool - I like that you're doing analysis, but I need you to step out of theoretical and more into actionable. The best way I can describe it is that you're trying to town off in a bubble.



I have absolutely no idea what that means. Are you using "town" as a verb...?

Yes, I am using 'town' as a verb. I mean you're posting analysis, but aren't making the connections required to give actionable information from it.
To put it simply, you're posting analysis, but aren't making the final leap to 'and that means X is scum and Y is town' to do the actual sorting of the game.

[Lapsa]

Update: Lapsa is now very squarely in my strong townreads list, consisting of {Zor, Plot, Frogger, Lapsa}.

What? How is Lapsa a strong town read?

The point being that I still see you using other player's arguments multiple times as partial or whole justification for your votes. Which can reflect: A) Desire to get on the good side of the players you're following, B) Pre-planning to avoid responsibility for those arguments in the future, C) Difficulty developing fake reads, or D) All of the above.

Given this, why do you not have a problem with Lapsa using Thor's case to vote Math? (with some added colours)

you are doing something fairly similar, Toffee

no wonder you appear confused - trying to defend yourself without ever considering that you might appear scum

Why would I be concerned about appearing scum? I'm trying to answer your concerns as best I can and move on to my own scum hunting.
/phoneposting

giving out strong townread on me without properly understanding me doesn't bother you?

[toolenduso]

To put it simply, you're posting analysis, but aren't making the final leap to 'and that means X is scum and Y is town' to do the actual sorting of the game.

Getting to that right now actually.

[toolenduso]

See, my problem up until this point is that I've been unable to clear this cognitive dissonance in my head about Math and Frogger. I've pretty much come to the conclusion that it's very, very unlikely that they're scum together. If they are I will applaud them post-game.

But both look suspicious to me. So I've been wondering which to vote. And ultimately I think what tips the balance is the Lapsa and math wagons. The Lapsa wagon just seems like such juicy fruit for scum to latch onto (assuming Lapsa is town ofc). So Math and Frogger were both on it. But then this Math wagon comes along, and frogger's on that one too. Then I look through their ISOs and see that Frog has all this other stuff going on (see #344, #401 and #541 for breakdowns).

So, the long and short of it is:

VOTE: Fro99er

Now I'm going to get going through some more ISOs, but I definitely have a priority list here. Like it's going to be a bitch to go through Thor's so I'mma save that one for last probably.

[toolenduso]

@abuse: who is victor?

Spoiler: CB's ISO

-It seems like his vote on plot is one of those things where it starts out for a variety of little weak reasons because it's the beginning of the game, then he didn't see anything to change it over time. It's hard to parse through his intentions here because like the majority of his posting is either going through page by page or responding to people who have addressed him. He kinda gives reads on some players but...I don't know, he just kinda floats around. He's not at the front and he's not in the back.
-I guess the overall impression I get from his posting is that it looks more like he wants to get reads out there than he wants to scumhunt. That's just the vibe I get. So that pushes him toward the scum side but it's not a strong read. He's mostly null to me.

Spoiler: abuse's ISO

-Maybe this is me projecting here but I get the feeling that his question to plot in #77 is more likely to come from town than scum. He just asks plot how many games he's played as a way of testing plot's statement about having seen VTs crumb. The question itself looks kinda towny because it looks like scumhunting, but aside from that there's the way he goes about it. He doesn't go and look it up for himself and then call plot out for it or something. Which is I think what I would want to do as scum, go into the situation armed with info that other people don't have and then make the person look like they're lying. But nah, he just asks him about it. Just seems genuine is all.
-His response to me in #155 also seems genuine. Like as scum I would think he would want to try to look like he was scumhunting more, but here he admits that he's fallen behind a bit and is skimming and instead of just jumping on the people he's been feeling out (plot, shinobi), he goes oh yeah they're fine. Have to look somewhere else. It looks like the meandering path of a person who doesn't have inside information.
-And then he lets go of it in #244 without revoting. Also looking like somebody who's unsure.
-Just a lot of posts here that really look like somebody trying to figure the game out. Like the way he starts out with a semi-town read on me and then flips around when he compares his observations to my meta.

[CB]

Prodge. Will catchup tomorrow.

[Thor665]

That's not why I'm hard defending him. You never even asked why I had a town read on him. You demanded I respond specifically to your case, and I responded to the specific points in your case.

My interpretation of the events around your case is apparently different than his

, but *shrug* you demanded my opinion, I gave it.

I am not at all surprised it differs from Dino's.

I have a town read on him because of his attitude and behavior.

He was clearly attempting to scum hunt early

, his responses to my posts read like enthusiastic town (rather than scum buddying),

he attempted to play cooperatively with his town reads

, and

faced with data changed his mind

.

I follow (most) of his thought processes, and they seem pretty transparently towny.

When pressure was on him, he continued trying to scum hunt, rather than just playing pure defense

. Pretty towny behavior, imo.

The things I underlined don't really appear to be true, especially when we take into account that you agree that, even if what he did early wasn't lying, it was really oddly wrong and jumpng the gun, and also his "scumhunting instead of defending" included dropping a case like a hot potato and randomly pushing a policy lynch

Everything in bold is pretty much provably incorrect - often simply by reading Mathdino's own words. He has called you wrong on multiple occasions as to his Frogger case opinions and openly admitted that his push on Lapsa was policy/playstyle adjustment based and *NOT* scumhunting, as you prosaically claim it.

The things in italics show your blindness to the things in bold, as you continue to act as though him saying you're not reading his actions correctly somehow equates to just a disagreement as opposed to, y'know, a reason to reassess your reads.

My issue with you holds, though I appreciate the clarification of your town case on him, I suppose. I don't feel I was far off in my understanding though.