Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[sangres]

I've asked nacho if he's seen pieguy's scum-case on SS. he hasn't, though he might get to it soonish since I mentioned it.

I could work up a serious head of steam being paranoid about SS, but I don't feel like it's particularly reality-based right now. I'm more or less waiting to see what ms and hito spit out once they've digested the game. And waiting for muffin or nati to get caught up and put some developed thoughts into the game.

[pieguyn]

I'm jumping around a bit but the elephant in the room about soft-spoken is the setup misunderstanding surrounding post 494

I actually feel pretty strongly that he'd be able to fake that. in addition to Reg and Empire both saying he's capable of it, they had mentioned something about arsonists working differently on EM than here. I think he could easily enough have thought something pregame along the lines of "hmm, arsonists know their partner? that's different. if I roll scum here, this would be an interesting idea for how to play this game" and then there it was.

I'd usually think it'd make him more likely town, yeah. just in this case I don't think it was a 100% townslip by any means and I feel I have stronger reasons to read most of the other players as town.

[Gyre and Gimble]

I still don't understand why you re townreading muffina. All I can see is that "muffina is town because too scummy to be scum"

But you are scumreading S-S because "not townie enough to be town"

please correct me if these super abridged translations are wrong

[Gyre and Gimble]

btw I'm townreading S-S because of other stuff, I didn't care about the "townslip"

[Gyre and Gimble]

I don't have a lot of time but some quick thoughts.

Three townreads Metal and I have in common are pie, sangres, saucer.

Saucer in particular has a post that reads very un-bussy:

yuriko is a decent policy lynch, but im not seeing any substance in a yuriko push fyi

It's not really a policy kynch from my point of view. I'm having a really hard time believing there's two scum outside of yuko and I don't feel great about a scum read on anyone in the eight.

If she is town, I have some serious rethinking to do about the people in this game because other than paranoia dream teams, Im coming up short.

From the position of reading the game post Yuriko-flip, we do indeed know that PoE is absolutely

annihilating

whoever the poor remaining scumbag is. This isn't a post that comes from Saucer scum, because it's not only encouraging the scum vote, it's encouraging the scum vote by route of

actively discouraging any other wagons

. (Contrast with RBD voting Yuriko while actively promoting alternate wagons.)

As for Pie's thing on RBD, actually BBMolla said it pretty well:

I would expect that if he was scum here he'd have to put a hell of a lot more effort into this than just a throwaway comment after not mentioning anything about it at all before, but it's still possible. attempting to link a town player to your scum partner by pointing out associatives in advance is a fairly common scum strategy.

I don't see why him not doing some specific scummy thing makes him town.

In particular, it makes a lot of sense in this game especially to not make a play like that d2. If scum get a mislynch today, that mislynch target is still going to stay alive and talk. What incentive does RBD-scum have to burn sangres now? Even if RBD was explicitly setting up that associative trap, today would be a silly day to burn it. You need to save that trump card for a later day when the lynch is going to be badly directed - not on D2 when, as RBD, you're sitting quite comfortably.

Every doused target is a lynch landmine - the scum is going to want a lot more control of the lynch on later days.

In fact, let's expand on that. I was going to play that tell close to the vest, so we'd have the trick available on later days but I'll just cash it out now because Metal wants the perfect win (I personally am a win-con absolutist, but I console myself by saying that keeping his dreams alive is a bigger gain than the loss incurred)

Scum have a curious subgame to play here where they have to guess the most universal townreads, douse them, and then

keep them alive

. This gives us an additional avenue to catch scum, because even though the scum is now alone, they're going to be forming 1-way associative tells with their douse targets. Every douse target lynched is a tempo hit for a scum that desperately needs to go for a clean sweep boom in this field of townreads.

So, one potential gambit town can try is to try to sniff out the universal townread and go nuts on them for no reason, and try to catch the scum from their panicked resistance. But look at what S-S posted:

also, we should lynch quil today to get that out of the way. i have a nagging feeling that i was doused by quil and thus the sudden change from me being top tier towny from being top tier scummy. pushing on someone you doused is a waste of a douse... and i was near conf town from everyones perspective but quils + i tried to subtly encourage BBmolla to self his ability

If I'm S-S scum, I quite doubt that I point out that you can catch scum by looking for sudden defenses on people they were previously not townreading. I think I bury that deep and hope no one thinks to hunt for that. That's my main reason to think S-S is town - Metal likes a lot of his off-the-cuff posting that I personally think is more null. Metal's also a fan of some of S-S's Yuriko interactions, e.g

yuriko if you are town you really need to try harder here. you WILL be hammered 99%

Which I don't feel is as strong as a town-tell as Metal, but it is a good post in hindsight - I think scum in general are very sensitive to making vapid posts about their scumbuddies.

It also helps that I'm feeling better about the roughness of the Yuriko bus. Metal left me some thoughts in the PT and he makes a good case that RBD decided from the word go that Yuriko was going to die at some point (probably inspired by either a total lack of pregame talk or pregame talk that left him very pessimistic) and just came in willing to make that play. I've had scum games where someone triggered one of my prime scumtells out of the gate and I just bussed them totally. FTL was the last one.

I feel like there was a question aimed at me about hydra dissonance or something but I can't find it, someone quote it if it's a real thing and not a random fever dream of mine. Also I tried to find it in GB's ISO and looking at those timestamps, GB's pretty much gotta be town as well - way too much posting for Empire/Regfan scum, imo.

tl;dr sangres, pie, saucer town. s-s has a lot of townish factors pointing at him. the point about RBD not voting sangres is meaningless, it's still probably just him. GB gets an effort townread.

[Gold Saucer]

I like this Hito pist a lot. Was the kind of analysis I was looking for from him.

I need to sync/talk to Bork and I will definitely at least dump thoughts to him by tomorrow as weekends tend to be busy for me.

[pieguyn]

I still don't understand why you re townreading muffina. All I can see is that "muffina is town because too scummy to be scum"

817 from D1 is the last time I talked about my zmuffin read in depth. for the most part, my rereads of him haven't given me cause to question it.

[pieguyn]

strongly disagree on 1083 being a town tell. I don't really think it was all that vapid of a post, and either way I think posts like that are really easy to make about partners bc there's no actual push on them in there. it's essentially just "do something".

I don't agree with RBD's Yuriko push looking like a bus either. first off, saying he "never elaborated" on the Yuriko read is incorrect - he did in 116. second, the reasoning there was fine enough that I don't have a problem with it. I could easily enough see him picking up on it as town. I also still don't make anything of the way he voted bc it looked like he was relatively ambivalent on all of his other scum reads, so I don't see a reason he would have had to vote somewhere else as town.

on the other hand I'm willing to admit I may be wrong re: them not pushing sangres, but I still haven't found any of the reasoning for them being scum compelling.

[pieguyn]

also I agree GG is more likely town. I have conflicting feelings on MS' recent posts re: RBD bc basically all of it is wrong, but I liked his early posts and I like hito's posts.

[Gyre and Gimble]

:/
If you are saying that I am wrong then you should show me where

my points

hito's

our points are wrong

right now you are just telling me that rbd has "no scum motivation*" which is p weak because it still leaves him open to PoE

*that you can see

[Gyre and Gimble]

that said, We're not done with the full catchup yet and maybe I'll see where you're coming from if your read comes from the last 20 pages

[pieguyn]

him looking like he's "given up" isn't a good reason for scum reading him

him not elaborating on his Yuriko read was incorrect

I didn't see anything else besides that outside of him bussing Yuriko? if there was, link/remind me what it was plz.

[Gyre and Gimble]

I have seen 817 btw and not only do I disagree with it, I also think it needs to be updated with recent stuff because it was made before the Yuriko flip

[Gyre and Gimble]

kk sure later

[Gyre and Gimble]

him looking like he's "given up" isn't a good reason for scum reading him

him not elaborating on his Yuriko read was incorrect

I didn't see anything else besides that outside of him bussing Yuriko? if there was, link/remind me what it was plz.

lol, I'm not scumreading him for "given up", where did you read that

I am using "giving up" to explain why he isn't pursuing sangres gung ho style, hence, your reason for townreading him for that is incorrect

[Gyre and Gimble]

He did explain his Yuriko read... I mentioned it in my post. I just think it's bullshit. My point was that he couldn't have caught Yuriko scum correctly at post 100 without internal information. At lest I remember writing that @_@

[pieguyn]

o ops, misread that part of the post. either way I still don't think it was that unreasonable a read for town-him to have.

[Gyre and Gimble]

my posts are very misreadable

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Home, going to get something in the oven for dinner then I'll get to this.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I don't find the "Muffin set up a linkage from Yuriko-Muffin and hasn't come back to it therefore he's town" argument convincing at all, if he's scum he can always circle back to it later when there's more of a chance to ML Nacho and it's very possible for him to consider them as actual partners as town (It's a theory we considered at one point too). All up I think it's a fairly worthless discussion and argument that needs to end.

Essentially in the same boat as Gold re; Post 1593, we're waiting on seeing more content from the pool of players we're not sure on [MetalHito/MuffinNati/Soft] and until they pop in here and are fully caught up / posting content it's incredibly difficult to actually place a vote.

Pies spot on in Post 1601 that it is fakeable, especially coming from Brakes (Soft) a player who liked to use unconventional tactics as scum to get town-read, what read super town about it here was that it flowed very naturally and looked less pre-planned as well as his reaction afterwards looking town.

@Metal

re; Post 1577 1) Pies case on S_S is not a case of "Fakeake = scum", the points I suggest you read into and comment on more (And no your Post 1581 doesn't touch on it enough) is a) Soft ignoring the reasoning behind scum-reading Yuriko despite me specifically explaining it directing the reasoning to him with him not commenting on it at all, b) Yurikos last few posts and reads looking like forcing herself to interact with Soft and c) The fact that Softs play today consists of leaving lots of options open while providing little to no content. 2) I agree that scum would or at least should have felt inclined to buss Yuriko at some point and that going after her to begin with makes sense as scum, I disagree that the fact that Muffin did so makes him scum alone, I think it's entirely plausible for him to have that read as town -- heck we had the read ourselves at the same time too so really you're going to have to give me more.

Like Hitos Post 1604 specifically the conversation / elaboration on the S_S town-read, reads very genuine, leaning more town on that slot now.

[Gentlemen Bastards]

I'm going to get dinner then I'll try catching up on the 20 or so pages I'm still behind with the time I have tonight.

I'll prob do some final thoughts write-up or something with a bit more detail

before making a replacement request

@Muffin -

What happened to the bolded? Really need at least

something

from you here, if you're too busy to catch up on the whole game just your elaborated read on Soft and your read on The MetalHito slot would suffice.

[Gyre and Gimble]

Phone post

a) scum have no reason to do this. If s-s was scum and knew that Yuriko was going down (let's face it, at that point of the game she was going down 100%) it would be beneficial to bus. This is an example of "too scummy to be scum" that I will buy.
b) not sure about this, but I clearly recall S-S initiating the conversation and Yuriko replying, as if to a townie "how did you catch me?" Note that she never interacted with muffina at all, I don't think so. No, commenting on a stupid pgo claim doesn't count
c) I'll look at that later. Muffina isn't providing any content either from what little I've read


Muffina putting a vote on Yuriko on post 100 (page 5) and not voting any other person at all at any point in the game (including day 2) is fucking unnatural. see my analogy re: nightless and zar

[Gyre and Gimble]

You have been scumhunting pie for quite a large portion of the game and have made waves. What has muffinslot done?

[Gentlemen Bastards]

@Metal;

RE: A) I don't believe in "Too scummy to be scum" arguments like yours in Post 1621, sure he may have known she'd be lynched at some point in the game and sure bussing her

should

of been what scum did or at least what I'd have done as scum but I don't think it's impossible for them to have thought not doing so would lead towards them being town-read postflip while also having the scum motivation of keeping a partner alive longer, seriously go back and look how much he actually avoided/ignored reasoning for her being scum. B) I'll go re-read this myself more later and we can discuss it then and C) I'd seriously stress reading S_S's play today, he fits scum coasting based of a town-read while leaving lots of options open for late game lynches more than Muffin does.

And don't get me wrong, I don't have a strong town-read on Muffin, I lean slightly town based on a few posts of his but it's all based on p shitty reasoning and Empire certainly doesn't agree with me there. It's more a case of a) I think you're hand-waving a lot of the reasons for S_S being scum away without reading in them properly and b) I think your strength in your Muffin scum-read is far too strong and your basis behind it (or at least elaborated on so far) unconvincing making me want to see

more

about the read in the thread from you guys.

[Gyre and Gimble]

A) pie guy's reason for townreading muffina is "he would be doing more to push sangres and not lie down like that" + "no scum motivation" which is essentially a "too scummy to be scum" argument too

a) reasons + suspicion for S-S just only appeared today, so I haven't got to it yet, rest assured I'll take a look at it

In due time... Maybe I can finish this thing by tonight, we'll see