Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[Gyre and Gimble]

thats all for today

i'll watch another episode of the mirror's edge playthough then go to sleep

[Gyre and Gimble]

i'll consolidate my thoughts and give it to hito and see if he can do the writeup, i hate writeups

i mean

ah

[Gyre and Gimble]

in short i think rbd is scum. i disagree with pie that 'S-S "fakeable = scum"". rbd has an underlying scum agenda/motivation while S-S looks like he doesnt

i want to bring regfan+empire's attention to rbd's play which resembled zar in my nightless. sit on the weak ass obviously-going-to-die partner, and do no shit until lylo.

yuriko was obviously-going-to-die. odds are that she would be lynched within the 3/4 mislynches necessary to win this game. bussing is optimal here.

and look who rushed to bus

[Gyre and Gimble]

i mean now

there is a 100% chance that yuriko's scumpartner bussed her

it is just a matter of 'how early'.

i'm going to look quickly at pie's "s-s' = scum argument and see if i can rebut it with day 1 evidence

[Gyre and Gimble]

The explanation here makes me feel a lot better about the way you were pushing me in the early stages of the game, though. Like, I don't think these are particularly strong points, but I can see why you in particular would think this way given certain things.

so I find this interesting more or less because of these posts from early on D1:

Oh, and just because I wanna be able to point back to this in post-game and brag about my reads.

Calling a Yuriko-Nacho scum team right now.

If that's not the team, this post never happened and no one ever read it.

-Nati

er... Submitted early.

I think you're bullshitting the strength of your pieguy town read.

I would vote you because you haven't done anything particularly town yet and leave it at that.

That would be an even worse angle than your current push, tbh, and I probably would have driven you into the ground if you even tried that.

But yes, your only other real options would be pushing Yuriko (who hasn't really done anything town but you have a very awkward town read on for setup spec which doesn't make a whole lot of sense), Soft-Spoken (for... not posting, I guess?) or bbMolla (even though I don't think you could actually make a case on bbMolla).

-Nati

if zmuffin is scum here, he laid down a bunch of false associatives between Yuriko and sangres, lynched Yuriko D1 as you'd expect, and then ..... forgot about it entirely?

I really don't know if that makes sense especially given this kind of player list where you essentially need as many mislynches as possible in order to make it to endgame. even in a standard player list, I usually don't see scum just give up after laying down interactions with the express purpose of linking ppl towards their partners.

did you seriously think that muffina has the power to overpower nacho now?

i mean

he *can*, but in this circumstance, no. it would make sense to drop it.

[Gyre and Gimble]

even in a standard player list, I usually don't see scum just give up after laying down interactions with the express purpose of linking ppl towards their partners.

um this is not making sense

this is an elite player list

scum giving up after being put into the PoE pool + a really fat ass townblock is perfectly expected,

even if they laid down the lamest associative with 0 justification and 0 reasoning and 0 angle on post 100

[Gyre and Gimble]

what I'm saying there is that, based on 357/364, scum-zmuffin's strategy would have been setting you up as a potential Yuriko partner. so I'm pretty sure that, if he was scum here, he would have been continuing to pushing you as scum and bringing said associatives he pointed out back up in order to lynch you next as opposed to backing off in the way that he did here.

I think he definitely could have made 357 as scum, it's how it ties in to what he did D2 that I don't think makes any sense coming from scum-him (especially in this game).

also, good news: I can read MS 100%, so this might be ez mode.

read: they gave up


also <3

I think BBM + Soft-Spoken/ Gold Saucer is scum.

Soft-Spoken > Gold Saucer in scumminess I think

so I first thought Quil might have been Yuriko's partner because of that half-assed town read she tried to put up on him. I think it might actually be the other way around and those "reads" she had at the end were just half-assed distancing. GS is 100% town, leaving ...

on S-S' side of the coin, his approach to the Yuriko wagon was to treat it like a "policy lynch" - which in retrospect I don't like since there were several people who had legitimate reasons for Yuriko being scum here.

Spoiler: everything s-s said about yuriko

yuriko is a decent policy lynch, but im not seeing any substance in a yuriko push fyi

i mean the whole deal where yuriko seems like she is afraid town will lose because she thinks its scumsided. that was a marginal towntell imo... its just... its hard to defend someone who is so chronically inactive.

i guess im not really the proactive forum player that i thought i was. i was in games that had little to no content and was eager to force things to happen... now i hardly have the energy to post after a 45 minute catch-up session. ill be the counterbalance. when yall run out of steam and your gums stop flappin as much ill fill in the blanks

im not going to pretend like i have any solid reads atm... honestly there is too much going on, and too many talented players... im used to there being a few low hanging fruit types that i can push and and see who sheeps and whatnot... or just make myself look scummy. but this isnt really the game for those antics so ima havta learn to be a more sophisticated player maybe.

If lynching yuriko is one of those things you have to do then go for it. id rather see someone be adventurous and step out on a limb and hard push one of your meta-buddies but the courage to do so seems rather lacking, even among the people who do have legitimate fos's ... maybe lynching yuriko will be the thing that moves this game foreward.

your posts are bearable for the most part. the problem i have with the huge wall posts is the ones where there is no place for my eyes to rest or (subject/content) speed-read

sometimes i even make huge posts but, they are chopped up with subjects, @'s , quotes... ect. when i see a neverending stream of text that is impossible to skim through i just shut down.

my reads are ATM... pie is town. most people are town-leaning (sangres slot recently moved from town to town leaning for me thanks to nachos posting) quil gives me the WTF's but im not sure that qualifies as a scumread. yuriko is begging for a policy lynch. this game is rather unreadable as a whole to me right now.

im done with waiting for yuriko to post. tbh if yuriko is town im gunna have a hard time forgiving her for not replacing out

VOTE: YurikoJasmine now is the time to post anything you possibly can. idc if you arnt caught up.

l-1

Hence my very blunt "She's firefighter or scum" words.

hahah i saw this coming when i saw yurikos claim

and ya to state the obvious here... scum has no reason to cc, and scum has no reason not to claim under duress. no brainer.

usually my worst town performances are in the easiest games so yuriko being scum makes sense on so many levels.

in either case, I don't really have anything I want to do that can't wait until tomorrow.

bbl for real

good point. selfhammers suk

UNVOTE:

i just did the math and its actually CCing the FF and winning the cc is not a bad position for scum to be in if molla was scum and quil wasnt.


but thats just paranoia speaking.


yuriko is coming out with some rather strange fos's (me/gold) that arnt substantiated.

in fact yuriko was right from the getgo... this is a rather scumsided setup.

its going to give me a stroke trying to explain it all, but i dont think thats necessary.

maybe not overall scumsided... lets say swingy. if town has unlynchables, scum has perfect priming targets and wont misplay any night whatsoever... especially with FF dead... sp basically if yuriko is town and we lynch her its a 4v1 with no clears mechanically d3

in other words. we have 1 mislynch and no claimable roles unless mafia primes someone who is later lynched.

yuriko if you are town you really need to try harder here. you WILL be hammered 99%

in general, he didn't *really* commit to a read either way on her and tried to claim it as a policy-ish vote for her continuing to stall out content. I think there is scum motivation here in that he didn't want to look too bad if Yuriko actually got lynched, but wanted to hold out as long as he could if the momentum swung a different way and he could lynch someone else instead. in hindsight, it's fairly different from what, for instance, GB did (committed to a firm stance, laid out play-based reasons for it, and stuck with it the whole way through).

he voted Yuriko really late, which makes sense if he wasn't seeing the scum reads on her based on her play. but I think it'd be fairly typical for scum to bus in that position.

the last sentence 1079 kind of reads like overjustification. from a town POV, I think it was really obvious Yuriko was scum here, and it was also obvious that her last-minute "reads" were really awful. what he did feels somewhat like scum being overly cautious about their interactions with a partner - like they think it's a good thing to point out, when in fact what they're saying is in actuality silly/pointless for town to say. I think it's more likely that town would just leave it out entirely or say something along the lines of "yep, Yuriko's reads are worthless".

I need to go back and figure out what/if S-S had anything to say about RBD/GB's Yuriko pushes.

@S-S:

what, if anything, did you make of GB's 862 when they posted it?

everything you said here applies to muffina in the pre-prototype-not-actually-a-case that hito posted -______-

hydra dissonance to avoid giving a legit stand on the scumpartner
nati's "lol newb" "lol newb town" "im townreading her LOL"

I'm currently reading the entire game again (focusing on S-S' posts in context) and am up to p25.

honestly, compared to everything else in the game, I think most of what S-S has done so far has been relatively fakeable. the only really blindingly town thing so far has been the arsonist townslip, but I don't think that's unfakeable at all anymore. I think that if he's scum here, he likely planned it out pregame, which would also account for specifically how it played out. I still agree with zmuffin's assessment that it didn't really come off as forced, but I'm not going to write it off as town bc of that especially coming from someone who's apparently capable of faking shit like that.

I don't know if he straight up admits "I can fake this as scum" after the fact as scum unless he had reason to believe there'd be someone who'd call him out on it, but if he would have invented such an unorthodox strategy to begin with, it doesn't seem unreasonable.

I'd like if someone could tell me if I'm just being dumb or not.

what has muffina posted that has not been fakeable?/

I actually managed to get to the end of D1 and wound up with an entirely unreadable post that I haven't filtered in any way whatsoever. tl;dr is that I'm actually really concerned with how S-S played this: I'm seeing a lot of poking at alternate targets to Yuriko (RBD, sangres), while ignoring the majority of the Yuriko-related discussion that happened. the point where he decided to vote Yuriko (958 ~ 959) came immediately after GB's 956 where he essentially said he was voting Yuriko, which was about the point where it became obvious ppl weren't going to tolerate Yuriko stalling for content and would likely lynch her - if that was what his strategy was, it makes a lot of sense that he'd give up and bus her at that point when it was obvious it wasn't getting anywhere. the reasoning behind said pushes were him sheeping sangres on RBD and in general not making sense of any of Nacho's posts, which once you get down to it is pretty weak.

this might make sense if he legitimately just didn't see anything beyond "policy" for Yuriko being scum. but the thing is, there was stuff like Regfan specifically disagreeing with the initial town read he put up (657), and a *lot* of points where people put up legitimate non-policy reasons for Yuriko being scum, and he *still* didn't seem to notice any of it

Yuriko's 1089 was interesting. GS, GB, and S-S had all posted saying they scum read her but S-S was the only one she questioned - as if she was specifically going out of her way to interact with him. compare to 1064 re: GS' scum read on her which accomplishes basically nothing whatsoever. this could also just be because she had him as her top "scum read".

his play this game day also passes the "makes sense coming from scum" test in that I haven't actually seen him do anything, and when he did, he didn't really commit to any firm reads and instead left a lot of options open for scum reads

someone please please please tell me I'm just being ridiculously dumb here, bc the more I look at this the more sense I think it makes - and I really don't know if Quil's recent play makes sense coming from scum

sounds like conf bias to me

i refer to you

if i were scum, i would coat my partner as "newb lynch" rather than "policy lynch"
___

that was it

[Gyre and Gimble]

I don't think it means anything that he didn't really do anything to "push" Yuriko. Yuriko hardly did anything at all this game. her initial posts were all setup spec and she didn't start doing anything substantive at all until very late in the game day. therefore, it makes sense he'd spend an amount of time pushing her proportional to the amount of posts she actually made. he spent the majority of his time commenting about the non-Yuriko arguments because they were a significantly larger part of the game than the posts Yuriko made and Yuriko had done fuck all for the majority of the game.

tbh

i dont see how any legit town player can scumread and catch yuriko correctly at post 100 something.

or 300 something. yuriko had only a few posts. whatever

plus, Yuriko really wasn't a point of contention in that the majority of the game agreed she was scum. on the other hand you had, for instance, Nacho and GB both feeling really really strongly that I was town/scum, respectively. there was no need to be "passionately involved" in pushing Yuriko because hardly anyone saw a need to discuss it anyway; there was, on the other hand, a need to be involved in the non-Yuriko arguments because it was a major point of contention for the majority of the game day.

nah it just looked like a really half-assed bus attempt.

overall, the impression I got from how they played this was that Yuriko was primarily zmuffin's read. there was a huge amount of dissonance in between zmuffin and Nati basically this entire game. all 3 of these posts were Nati's posts and they never really had a chance to sync. I don't think there was any explicit scum motivation here, I think this was just her either having a conflicting read as town or faking a read that went opposite zmuffin's read as scum and playing accordingly.

muffina didn't actually explain his 'read'

just for you i'll check bby~

-----

oh, he did. he thought she was "scum" at post 100. when she had only 2 posts. made up some (your pet phrase) fake-able reasoning, and stayed on her forever
that is not town behavior




in fact, thats pretty fucking bad

lol

I also think if he was scum here he was just trying to emulate this as opposed to doing what you're saying here (i.e. he's either town or scum faking it). I don't think it was him searching for an excuse to get off the wagon or anything like that, I think it was more aimed to discern my alignment.

have you fought muffina scum before? because you are making an assumption.

in general, I think there's alternate motivations for most of what you're pointing out here that make as much sense with RBD-town as RBD-scum. I think in particular you're getting confused on the dynamics of their hydra and/or holding them to higher standards than I would with hydra dissonance. either way I don't agree their interactions look like scum/scum.

i've just pointed out alternative motivations that hito didnt point out, because i read more the thread

i'll talk to him more and discuss stuff



stronger scumread on muffina now

[Gyre and Gimble]

i actually took 30 minutes to do this not-case-case thing

wow

thats slow

time consuming

i'll pump stuff into the pt then good night

i dont think i can even watch another episode

maybe tomorrow

[Gyre and Gimble]

yeah

i took 1 hour to write stuff in prose too

gosh


im going to bed. more next time. counting on hito

[pieguyn]

[pieguyn]

Why would he continue to push a read made very very early in the game later in the game after a flip? That's silly. Like, you don't think he'd see how suspicious it would be if he was like "GUYS I WAS RIGHT ABOUT YURIKO, REMEMBER HOW I CALLED OUT YURIKO/NACHO AT THE VERY VERY START OF THE GAME? I MUST BE RIGHT VOTE: NACHO."

I think you're underestimating them.

this isn't really what I'm trying to say here

I'm not claiming they'd just randomly go "herp derp, I called Yuriko/Nacho on page whatever" after dropping it the first time. I'm claiming that if they were scum here, the way they played this _on a larger scale_ would be entirely different.

*D2 opens*
zmuffin: doing some rereading
zmuffin: actually, I'm thinking sangres might be scum
zmuffin: *continues questioning sangres* (this is where this hypothetical sequence of events diverged from what actually happened - what we actually saw was him dropping his sangres scum read entirely)
zmuffin: *pulls up said Yuriko/sangres interactions, which may or may not include the ones he pointed out near the start of the game*

^ what is your problem with that sequence of events? I'm not insinuating he'd just randomly bring it up again. I would expect that if he was scum here he'd have to put a hell of a lot more effort into this than just a throwaway comment after not mentioning anything about it at all before, but it's still possible. attempting to link a town player to your scum partner by pointing out associatives in advance is a fairly common scum strategy.

I think you (and MS) are naive if you're working under the assumption they wouldn't be able to BS a scum read on Nacho off of this.

[sangres]

MS, what happened to your legendary speedreading ability?

[sangres]

happy scum day, sangres

Spoiler:

We're two years old!

[Gyre and Gimble]

it looked at the walls and it speeded away

[BBmolla]

I would expect that if he was scum here he'd have to put a hell of a lot more effort into this than just a throwaway comment after not mentioning anything about it at all before, but it's still possible. attempting to link a town player to your scum partner by pointing out associatives in advance is a fairly common scum strategy.

I don't see why him not doing some specific scummy thing makes him town.

[pieguyn]

bc

1. scum in this position needs as many lynches as possible in order to win. how do you expect him to win this *if* he is scum here? he mislynches Quil-slot, then what? he has no one else he can lynch without being forced to backtrack on his reads and even then he's kind of fucked bc of POE. he'd basically have to take advantage of any opportunity he could to eliminate consensus town reads/keep as many people mislynchable as possible if he was scum here.

2. he's demonstrated he'd be able to do as much. pushing sangres as Yuriko's partner would be the most natural continuation for scum-him here.

[Gold Saucer]

I'm not going to be able to get to this before I leave tomm morning. I'll be back Sunday night.

-b

Pretty much starting here from where I left off,
not feeling mafia right now in general but I'm gonna make an attempt to get back into this before I go out of town (again) this weekend

-b

[Gold Saucer]

I'm really not sure what to add when the people that I need to post to feel better about aren't posting. I don't really think that rbd are scum, or at least the things that have been brought up for scum them aren't compelling to me. I'm not the greatest at reading muffin, but I feel that recent games have given me a better insight in how to read him, but there are posts that make me feel like he's town. Muffin is developing as one of those players that I have a better chance at reading based on how they're reading people and reading the game, and unfortunately his lack of being here makes it harder for that to be a read I feel confident in.

One part of the case against them that I don't find compelling is the way they tried to get off of the Yuriko lynch or half-ass bussed. Muffin is a good enough player to buss in a way that would give him maximum town cred. So, I'm just not completely convinced he decides early to buss a partner that was going to get lynched anyway and was dead weight and then had Nati come in and try to derail it or find ways to get off of it. The only way that makes sense is if he was hoping that someone here would argue that it was something he wouldn't do therefore he did it, which I guess isn't completely off base but meh it doesn't really make a whole lot of sense when he can just go for town cred. So yeah, i don't know, but I don't have huge concerns they're scum.

It would be nice if one of them would come in here though.

I do need to reread Soft-Spoken. I was hoping that he would have some kind of reaction to the case against him or answer some of the questions posed to him when he checked in yesterday and seemed like he would address things. So, I don't know.

Still waiting for GG to continue catching up and putting out their thoughts. I'd like to see pie's read, but not rushing that at all, and I do kinda like metal sonic's continued talk about a perfect town win.

[Gold Saucer]

All in all, I'm feeling pretty discouraged. The players I feel most like I need to sort aren't doing much. And I feel like I finally pushed my read on you guys to rock-solid, but can't really be happy about it because of the cost involved.

And I'm enjoying (not!) a certain sense of deja vu about the situation. So many times, in playing short-deadline games, I wound up using antagonism as a means to develop a difficult or ambiguous read quickly. And so many times, I wound up with a townread on the player at the expense of (usually temporarily) cratering their read of me and cooperation with me. Because that's what happened here. I think this was a town reaction to Nacho on both your parts and I'm done worrying about you guys.

I am sincerely done worrying about you too this game - I think all four of us from our two slots (well, at least Tammy, me, and you) have all kinda been crossing our arms because we feel that the level of effort we've spent being candid / reaching out is higher than it needed to be.

Let's work together from here on out.

-b

[Gold Saucer]

Oh I think that's a really good representation of how we've all been feeling!

We should hug it out.

[Gold Saucer]

in fact,

VOTE: S-S

I think basically everyone in this game has done a bunch of shit that's borderline unfakeable. go back and read S-S' posts. they all are pretty town, sure, but in terms of things that are absolutely-certainly coming from town? there's nothing there except possibly the town slip from the start and both heads of GB said that was fakeable coming from him.

if you disagree, comment on why I'm incorrect to town read RBD for adopting a strategy that doesn't make sense as scum. or why I'm wrong that it's really dumb for Quil to replace out as scum in this position. or why what I'm saying here about S-S' interactions with Yuriko doesn't make sense, or why you're reading them as town. or DO ANYTHING.

I'm jumping around a bit but the elephant in the room about soft-spoken is the setup misunderstanding surrounding post 494

This was a pretty big deal. 367 and 490 look like incredibly fluid leadups to 494 and as you can see the sample PM has a placeholder PT link in it, so it's not a situation where the fact that there is a PT could be easily missed by a scum player receiving a badly emphasized PM and having it strike him to try to play that angle to fake a towntell.

I don't see scum having the mindset to even think to do that. I really don't. I agree there's

motive

to do that, I just think the

opportunity

(in this case the epiphany that this is an easy "towntell" to pass scrutiny) is pretty lacking

-b

[Gold Saucer]

From Bork's end, I want to see why he has trepidations with Regfan's play. I want to understand his position on Pieguyn because he seems to share a perspective with me re: that emotional town tell thing and I want to understand why he's town town town.

realized I never got to this

It's less trepidations and more PoE; I'm finding it hard to town them as I think they are 1) wall-y and therefore really easy for me to just ignore 2) somewhat unreadable via emotional reactions (although what little they gave me suggested town as I said earlier) 3) narrow in scope, mostly focusing on pieguy throughout the entire game.

Everyone else's reaction to their play is at least making me comfortable with Tammy holding the reins on that read, but every once in a while it's just a slot that I'm reminding myself of as "this isn't one of your major townreads" and if that ends up being a deficiency on my part this time around I'm not really going to be surprised.

-b

[Gold Saucer]

Oh I'm reminded again that I haven't done enough to explain to bork that town read. I'm sorry. I will try to do that tonight, but that might be tomorrow.

[Gold Saucer]

I think SS is town, if it's not Quil I think it's RBD. SS's post seem pretty fucking genuine, but feel free to highlight the points where he is obviously scum.

if you've read my posts and still aren't convinced, I don't really see us coming to an agreement on it

instead I'll ask: why do you disagree with 1412/1416? I maintain that if RBD is scum here they had what was potentially a free mislynch basically lined up already and then chose not to follow through with it for no apparent reason.

I actually don't agree and I don't think RBD in 357 was trying to do anything other than be flippant with calling the scumteam early based on two entirely independent reads, but really even if they were trying to make pre-flip positive connections here, there are totally reasons that scum them wouldn't have immediately hopped on sangres:

1) their own internal perception of their projection of their "reads" on the thread had significantly changed (no way to really know this)
2) the general perception of sangres had changed (it had)
3) they forgot they typed that (no way to know this either)
4) they have some other specific strategy in mind (same)

etc. and because of any of these I don't really at all agree with the assertion that "given that scum RBD would definitely have gone after sangres, their not doing that makes them town"; the logic is valid if the premise were sound, but the premise isn't sound

-b