NY 189 - Flower Viewing Festival [~fin~]

[Shazam]

If you're doing it to continue interacting with me, what are the results? What is being accomplished?

The results are the same results from any two people discussing content. It ought to help both of us develop reads on each other, and help the rest of the people in the game develop reads on us.

In short, I think you've made a bad case, but you're acting like it's a good case because you want to lynch him for other reasons.

I actually say in 431 why it made me think Frogger is scum.

Why is it bad case a scum made with intent and not just a bad case?

"Lynch him for other reasons" is an open ended statement I don't know what you think the other reasons might be.

I think everyone else understood this without explanation. I highlight in 431 that he is much too sure that you are scum for things that do not indicate scum in any way. He is so sure he wants to 1v1 you for the day. That is why it looks like he has reasons he's not telling us for wanting to lynch you, and the obvious implication is that he's scum, because it's Day 1. Only scum have undisclosed motives Day 1.

Man this game goes fast

Shazam I wanted to vote a lurker IAI was the only viable lurker for voting.

I like the way you think though. I mean I think it is wrong but still liking the thought process

Interesting. So if you like the thought process, do you think you should vote Sakura Hana?

How he PoE who the potential scum in IAI wagon might be

Seemed legit. He is wrong about me and I think he is potentially wrong about Sakura but that doesn't negate that it seemed townie, I find it more likely that scum would just blankly blame someone in the middle or end

It is fakeable though so no strong feelings just an observation but yea

Actually, after reading this I have the exact same question. You say you like my thought process, but then even though it leads me to two people, you're saying you think both are town? And "potentially wrong" is weak sauce btw. Of course it's potentially wrong, but the question is whether it's likely to be right.

I am going to assume 673 is an addendum to 672 and "their" refers to IAI.
k.

and yes i am not highly impressed by the theory that scum have to form counter wagons (in 12 hrs or less)(work commitments etc don't count for some reason?) or else the current wagon cant be on scum....
because once that is the default theory the obvious way to stall wagon on scum is do nothing.

You can always bring in a WIFOM argument, but I tend to lean towards no WIFOM being involved. Scum doing the opposite of what would logically be considered to be in their best interests is rare, especially towards the start of a game. And as I've stated before, 12 hours or less seems to have been doable, but it didn't happen. By my count, 6 people posted who were never on the IaI wagon, while the wagon was building from 3 to 7 votes. That is half of the players in the game who were never on the IaI wagon. Seems like enough to me, but it didn't happen.

[Shiro]

Actually, after reading this I have the exact same question. You say you like my thought process, but then even though it leads me to two people, you're saying you think both are town? And "potentially wrong" is weak sauce btw. Of course it's potentially wrong, but the question is whether it's likely to be right.

Yea the thought process is something I liked but I know I am town and based on what I have read in this game from Sakura I find it unlikely that she is scum thus I find your conclusion that one of the two is likely scum to be wrong.

A differnet conclusion doesn't change how one feels about the road to it. Your way of thinking is towny

[AxleGreaser]

I highlight in 431 that he is much too sure that you are scum for things that do not indicate scum in any way. He is so sure he wants to 1v1 you for the day. That is why it looks like he has reasons he's not telling us for wanting to lynch you, and the obvious implication is that he's scum, because it's Day 1. Only scum have undisclosed motives Day 1.

Uh ok, but you are going to explain to me how scum can have motives to want to lynch one person in particular D1. (especially with a bad case and day chat.)

Spoiler: me guessing wildly... and failing utterly

Your hypothesisng a night 0 role cop, and I would have role they want to lynch but me claiming it wont ..... nope.
So they'd have to want me dead because i am renowned.... nope.

Frogger who has day chat has this great to him case, that you know is bollocks and he wants to 1v1 me so much he just does it without checking out if its good idea i n day chat...

Nope i am going to need actual examples of possible motives scum can have to 1v1 me with case you say has "things that do not indicate scum in any way".

Scum doing the opposite of what would logically be considered to be in their best interests is rare, especially towards the start of a game. And as I've stated before, 12 hours or less seems to have been doable, but it didn't happen. By my count, 6 people posted who were never on the IaI wagon, while the wagon was building from 3 to 7 votes. That is half of the players in the game who were never on the IaI wagon. Seems like enough to me, but it didn't happen.

Yeah I dont bank on Wifom either. But combining avoiding beetle juice (appearing because of the pressure) Needing to actually find and think of good enough counter wagon. Needing the people who have the thread pull or skill to pull it off being in the thread. Does IAI, even have time to discusss it and say "yeah guys i really am going to play so save me". IF the wagon on IAI was on scum, Lots of plausible stuff can wind up with some delay.

I am mainly making sure that

12 hours is quite a while in this game, and I think quite a few of the players in the game have posted during that time. A counter wagon definitely could have started imo.

That it COULD have started does not mean anything certain.
and that you sliding (getting dragged) over that line, here 606 when prompted to start analysing the wagon as if it is definitely on towny gave me a nervous tick.

[pieguyn]

votecount 1.16

I Am Innocent (6) - Ricastle, pisskop, Salamence20, Sakura Hana, Spiffeh, Shiro

Spiffeh (3) - Aeronaut, I Am Innocent, BananaCucho
Davsto (2) - Slandaar, AxleGreaser
Echo Echo (2) - Davsto, Flubbernugget
Salamence20 (2) - MarioManiac4, tn5421
tn5421 (1) - Fro99er
AxleGreaser (1) - Echo Echo
Fro99er (1) - Shazam

Not voting (1) - VeeGee

With 19 alive, it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is September 4, 18:10 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2015-09-04 18:10:00).

[AxleGreaser]

Actually, after reading this I have the exact same question.

If by "the exact same question" you mean as me, then perhaps you don't.

This is the bit that matched in my head the kind of reasoning Shiro could have if Shiro was analyzing the game.

I find it more likely that scum would just blankly blame someone in the middle or end

I think you are wrong about BOTH Shiro and Sakura *being* scum. (probably wrong pisskop, but I havent looked at him hard yet)
I think the reasoning in 606 is just fine and _indicative_ of a town thought process.
Is it fakeable? Yeah sure. I am sure I have faked that much depth before.

[Salamence20]

Hey Areo:

Dont you think that d1 speed wagons are optimal?

[Shazam]

Uh ok, but you are going to explain to me how scum can have motives to want to lynch one person in particular D1. (especially with a bad case and day chat.)

Nope i am going to need actual examples of possible motives scum can have to 1v1 me with case you say has "things that do not indicate scum in any way".

Really? You can't think of any reasons why scum would want to lynch someone they think they can make a good case on?
My entire point is that he had a crap case, but HE DIDN'T THINK SO. The 1v1 is posturing of course imo. He's willing to 1v1 today, but when tomorrow rolls around, he will still defend himself.

I am mainly making sure that

12 hours is quite a while in this game, and I think quite a few of the players in the game have posted during that time. A counter wagon definitely could have started imo.

That it COULD have started does not mean anything certain.
and that you sliding (getting dragged) over that line, here 606 when prompted to start analysing the wagon as if it is definitely on towny gave me a nervous tick.

This is a good point. It did take IaI asking me for me to realize that actually it was not impossible to find which of the people on his wagon were likely scum. Originally, looking at the 7 names, I didn't think I was going to be able to narrow it down to 2. But since he asked me, I tried it and it seemed to yield something.

[Sakura Hana]

Look at how easily shiro and spiffeh get on my wagon, Mario could have done the same, instead he goes after salamance, a slot I'm very concerned about as salamance is right, he knows my scum game better than anyone on this player list, yet still thinks I'm scum.

Technically i also "easily" got on your wagon, is my reads list such a strong reason to townread me to invalidate something like that?

[Salamence20]

Mario is scum too. He hasnt posted anything of content other than a vote on me.

[Salamence20]

TN bitches that I should talk to him and he still hasnt asked me anything

[Salamence20]

votecount 1.16

I Am Innocent (6) - Ricastle, pisskop, Salamence20, Sakura Hana, Spiffeh, Shiro

Spiffeh (3) - Aeronaut, I Am Innocent, BananaCucho
Davsto (2) - Slandaar, AxleGreaser
Echo Echo (2) - Davsto, Flubbernugget
Salamence20 (2) - MarioManiac4, tn5421
tn5421 (1) - Fro99er
AxleGreaser (1) - Echo Echo
Fro99er (1) - Shazam

Not voting (1) - VeeGee

With 19 alive, it takes 10 to lynch. Deadline is September 4, 18:10 GMT-7 or in (expired on 2015-09-04 18:10:00).

I hate every other wagon here besides IaI, Mario is choice 2.

[Shiro]

Mario is scum too. He hasnt posted anything of content other than a vote on me.

Oh but that should be considered an excellent contribution right up there with VeeGee

[AxleGreaser]

VeeGee has not picked up his role PM and, as such, I am searching for a replacement. He may remain in the game if he returns before a replacement is found.

[AxleGreaser]

I hate every other wagon here besides IaI, Mario is choice 2.

Without going too white knight about it unless you want too.
What wrong with the Davsto wagon? I didnt like 669. Which post or posts did you like?

[Shiro]

Slow the fuck down. I'm a spammer yet I cannot compare to THIS...

Now slow down there mr.spammer, your 3 posts are clogging the game.

VeeGee has not picked up his role PM and, as such, I am searching for a replacement. He may remain in the game if he returns before a replacement is found.

Oh yea forgot about that .

In any case

Mario how did you go from possibly voting tn to living the life of a rebel ?

[I Am Innocent]

Hint hint: it is the one who has given out almost no reads vs the one who has given out all reads...

If this is what you think, put your vote where your mouth is. I don't necessarily agree with this, though. I've definitely seen scum give out all their "reads" and town active lurk.

Yeah it's possible. I had no real minuses on Sakura during the catchup, but I have notes saying I liked posts 183, 259, and 379 of his. So it is more than just his full reads that I'm basing my town read on.

For Sakura. Basically by the second half of the catchup you came off as a voice of reason/town leader, so it doesn't surprise me that a scum or two (shiro/spiffeh) followed you on my wagon.

And probably if/until you get off, I don't foresee the wagon stalling or a counter wagon get moving. Balls in ur court my friend...

[Shiro]

Hint hint: it is the one who has given out almost no reads vs the one who has given out all reads...

If this is what you think, put your vote where your mouth is. I don't necessarily agree with this, though. I've definitely seen scum give out all their "reads" and town active lurk.

Yeah it's possible. I had no real minuses on Sakura during the catchup, but I have notes saying I liked posts 183, 259, and 379 of his. So it is more than just his full reads that I'm basing my town read on.

For Sakura. Basically by the second half of the catchup you came off as a voice of reason/town leader, so it doesn't surprise me that a scum or two (shiro/spiffeh) followed you on my wagon.

And probably if/until you get off, I don't foresee the wagon stalling or a counter wagon get moving. Balls in ur court my friend...

I personally followed pisskop and sala, Sakura also voting you was a bonus. I mean this is the only 3 people I was kind of townreading at the time. Also IAI you seems quite certain that I am scum based on that one vote ? I find that quite weird.

[Slandaar]

Thanks for your reply Davsto!

Frogger, I'm townreading you.

Shut the fuck up.

Seems a bit buddyish. "I'm townreading you, so you can't scumread me".

I feel this is quite weak. I mean, it could be, but I could call any townread on anyone buddying if that is buddying so yeah. Weak.

VOTE: Spiffeh

Call it a gut scumread, if you will. I didn't like his approach to the game.

Unexplained vote, three votes into a wagon.

Eh. He explained it as gut. I wouldn't call it unexplained.

I've read the thread, Sakura. Everything's null to me at the moment. Give people more time to figure out the motivations of others, will you!

Everything null 173 posts in? Not even any reads? Feels like an attempt to avoid having to post suspicious opinions yet.

Maybe. It is quite bold for scum to do though just saying everything is null. I assume you have other opinions at that point in the game then? lets hear them!

Well, my head says that if you guys keep spamming, people are going to get apathetic and leave.

Trying to convince people to post and help less.

Post less spam. Spam being the key word, not 'help less'.

You don't say. It's 5 day deadlines, of course they have Day Chat. Probably by an encryptor, I suppose.

Reads a bit weird, as if he's purposely being obtuse - acting like he doesn't know scum has Day Chat even though it's in the rules to make it seem like he doesn't know because he's not scum..?

Or he just didn't read the rules? (like me!) although I assumed they do have daychat. If he knew it was in the rules he probably doesn't say this as either alignment so it's pretty much a meh point.

And

that

confirms Shazam as town. Thanks!

Ricastle is probably town.

Two completely unexplained townreads. Not a fan.

OK. Maybe you should ask him to explain then? I am fairly sure Sakura posted a whole bunch of townreads none of which were explained;

This is where i currently Stand:

Pretty town:

12. Shazam
5. BananaCucho
6. AxleGreaser
18. Aeronaut

Maybe town:

8. Spiffeh
4. Salamence20
17. Echo Echo
13. Fro99er

Ehh could go either way:

1. pisskop
15. Shiro
7. tn5421

Left Overs:

3. Ricastle
9. VeeGee
10. I Am Innocent
11. Flubbernugget
14. Slandaar
16. MarioManiac4
19. Davsto

Is she claiming scum? Seems like it to me just look at how many reads are unexplained!

[I Am Innocent]

Scummy - Shiro

Also what leads you to have this read.

As I was doing my catchup I had no pluses or minuses associated with shiro until she said late that she had no reads. I realized she was flying under the radar. Then she wanted to vote a lurker (pot meet kettle) and her only post throwing out reads had like 2 town reads and nothing else. Felt like spiffeh's 299, something to just appease the masses/show 'look I'm playing too, see I even have a few reads.

The timing of her vote on my wagon doesn't look good either (usually mid wagon scum like to hop on)

For shiro

[Sakura Hana]

Basically by the second half of the catchup you came off as a voice of reason/town leader, so it doesn't surprise me that a scum or two (shiro/spiffeh) followed you on my wagon.

Voice of reason i can buy, Town leader however is kinda a meh reasoning, i haven't been leading anything and if anything my vote was a sheep of sala, so i dont know how you get that kind of impression from that.

@Axle: I'm currently trying to sort IaI, Davsto would also be a good position for my vote if in the end i think IaI is town.

[I Am Innocent]

Hint hint: it is the one who has given out almost no reads vs the one who has given out all reads...

If this is what you think, put your vote where your mouth is. I don't necessarily agree with this, though. I've definitely seen scum give out all their "reads" and town active lurk.

Yeah it's possible. I had no real minuses on Sakura during the catchup, but I have notes saying I liked posts 183, 259, and 379 of his. So it is more than just his full reads that I'm basing my town read on.

For Sakura. Basically by the second half of the catchup you came off as a voice of reason/town leader, so it doesn't surprise me that a scum or two (shiro/spiffeh) followed you on my wagon.

And probably if/until you get off, I don't foresee the wagon stalling or a counter wagon get moving. Balls in ur court my friend...

I personally followed pisskop and sala, Sakura also voting you was a bonus. I mean this is the only 3 people I was kind of townreading at the time. Also IAI you seems quite certain that I am scum based on that one vote ? I find that quite weird.

What gave or still gives you a reason to follow salamance?

[Davsto]

Difference being:

Sakura's post was a list. Explanations would be silly for all 19 players.
Echo's posts were non-sequitur, standalone posts, where he just said "X is town". I guess I'll ask him why.

@Echo Echo

- why the townreads?

[AxleGreaser]

Basically by the second half of the catchup you came off as a voice of reason/town leader, so it doesn't surprise me that a scum or two (shiro/spiffeh) followed you on my wagon.

Voice of reason i can buy, Town leader however is kinda a meh reasoning, i haven't been leading anything and if anything my vote was a sheep of sala, so i dont know how you get that kind of impression from that.

@Axle: I'm currently trying to sort IaI, Davsto would also be a good position for my vote if in the end i think IaI is town.

I like voices of reason.

I am about busted and going to sleep. (1am)
I have similar position in that
I am currently trying to sort Davsto and IaI would also be good position for my vote, if i think Davesto is not the best D1 lynch.

I think the other wagons,..... smell.

[AxleGreaser]

smell == people finding totally obviously BS places to park their votes.
== Wagons with bad reasons.
== people asleep at the wheel.
== ...

[I Am Innocent]

Basically by the second half of the catchup you came off as a voice of reason/town leader, so it doesn't surprise me that a scum or two (shiro/spiffeh) followed you on my wagon.

Voice of reason i can buy, Town leader however is kinda a meh reasoning, i haven't been leading anything and if anything my vote was a sheep of sala, so i dont know how you get that kind of impression from that.

@Axle: I'm currently trying to sort IaI, Davsto would also be a good position for my vote if in the end i think IaI is town.

Well it's how I saw and still see u. That was the most deflating vote on my wagon (followed by banana who I also have a solid town read on), as soon as I saw it I knew it gave free reign to hop on my wagon for scum.

Scum we're not going to follow sals 'vote Iai he's always scum crap' but u they would and did.

So ask urself why did u initially vote me? Why did others? Did they get what they want? Why are they still voting? I think once you do that ull get all the answers u need about what a crap wagon this actually is