Blitz 18: Wedding Invitational Mafia - GAME OVER

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Post Post #2400 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:48 pm

Post by Empire »

In post 2395, Nachomamma8 wrote:OK.
Where do we go from here?

Finally back home. What do you think about the setup, too? I find the possibility of autowin had the lovers remained BP (seriously, why the fuck did they activate?) too good to be true.

I wonder if Cabd just expected the mafia to cc B+G or something.
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Post Post #2401 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 12:57 pm

Post by Cephrir »

If so, then why didn't they?
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Post Post #2402 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:04 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

In post 2400, Empire wrote:
In post 2395, Nachomamma8 wrote:OK.
Where do we go from here?

Finally back home. What do you think about the setup, too? I find the possibility of autowin had the lovers remained BP (seriously, why the fuck did they activate?) too good to be true.

I wonder if Cabd just expected the mafia to cc B+G or something.

I won't have in depth thought until I cook some food, but hold that thought and please have something juicy for me when I come back.
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Post Post #2403 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:06 pm

Post by Empire »

That's one of the many the things I don't understand. It seems like going for the quick win would be something that they would jump on. I can think of two possibilities off the top of my head:

1) They probably thought that, since this is a Cabd setup, there MUST be something the town have to sorta counter the scum wincon so they chose to play it safe.
2) The scum team would have to put two of their own on the line to make it work. We know one is a goon, so that's easily expendable. The third role might be something very important that they didn't want to risk giving up (as well as the role cop).

I think the idea of BP-until-reveal means Cabd was definitely considering a cc situation, since the B+G would have to choose between confirming themselves and losing their BP or doing nothing and risking getting lynched.

P-edit: beginning of the juicy here, I guess.
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Post Post #2404 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:11 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

juicy is players not setup
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Post Post #2405 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:11 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

we can wax setup all day but i don't think we'll see into the fucked up whatever this is
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Post Post #2406 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:12 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

it's staring into the void
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Post Post #2407 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:12 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

don't stare into the void
just be town
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Post Post #2408 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:12 pm

Post by Empire »

Also, knowing what we know now, it seems pretty obvious to me that the scum took a shot at AP/Mara on N4. If the scum supposedly have a strongman, why didn't the shot go through? I believe Nacho claims to have been blocked every night so it can't be some strongman/roleblocker alternating thing.

P-edit: yeah, well, you're going to have to go through this first because the idea of actually getting close to confirming you as town is REALLY appealing to me and would make my life way easier so deal with it.
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Post Post #2409 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:17 pm

Post by Cephrir »

The existence of the reveal really making ccing suicidal for scum, so...
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Post Post #2410 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:20 pm

Post by Empire »

Yeah, I know, but why even have the wincon at all if you're going to make it so ridiculous to even attempt it? For the Epic Lols?

I don't know, this setup is dumb.

*opens up Cephrir's 285 page ISO and cracks knuckles*
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Post Post #2411 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:46 pm

Post by Natirasha »

the fuck? I got prodded?
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Post Post #2412 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:02 pm

Post by Empire »

In post 664, BROseidon wrote:Guys if GM is scum then Mala is like 95% chance scum.

It's pretty cool.

Just saw this while reviewing Cephrir. What led you to come to this conclusion? (I believe this post happened before the Mala chainsawing GM thing, but I could be wrong.)
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Post Post #2413 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:25 pm

Post by Empire »

CEPHRIR, A BIOGRAPHY:


I liked that Cephrir seems self-confident enough to say what’s on his mind in #387 and his frustration at not being properly understood (loved “I don't have an angle every time I post or speak” in particular).

I usually think out of the blue posts like #416 are way more likely to come from town. Scum, even experienced ones, tend to be way more concerned with following a narrative and making sure their reads are consistent/backed up with reasons and tend to ignore the little things that make townies town: introspection, personal investment in accuracy, etc. I think this post comes from the mindset of a town player who genuinely wants to do better and be right about stuff and from what I remember of Cephrir-scum, he doesn’t really put as much effort into faking this kind of thing as scum. He also even has the stream-of-consciousness style of posting sometimes, like when he states his townread on AP in #1368, which shows he’s posting his unfiltered thoughts in the thread.

Cephrir doesn’t seem like he’s paying all that much attention or is truly engaged with the game, which I believe is a towntell for him (see: posts like #419). I also really liked the I-don’t-give-a-fuck reaction to Mara’s hardcore push on him starting in #739, I think he would have been more likely to go the appeasement route.

The waffling starting at #1646 around the Marquis/pie stuff also seems really genuine to me given his low opinion of his scum game and that he preferred lynching GM “early” over both of them due to that indecision. Also, I believe Ceph was basically the “swing vote” on the GM wagon because he had the opportunity to switch onto pie when she was the counter (and she was “counterclaimed”) but he ended up not doing so. Given his posts about pie, it would have been really easy for him to stick onto that wagon and not have to worry about losing cred.

I think he takes way too long to state some townreads (as in, by name, not just “I have some townreads”) but that seems to be a product of the struggling rather than the scumming. Oh, and there's also the interaction stuff I mentioned earlier (still think #814 points very strongly towards him being town).
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Post Post #2414 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:26 pm

Post by Empire »

Ugh, as soon as I posted that, I just felt this horrible tinge of "man, if Cephrir is scum, I'm going to be utterly humiliated."

I'm going to take a break for a bit and then go through BRO.
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Post Post #2415 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:52 pm

Post by Cephrir »

In post 2413, Empire wrote:his low opinion of his scum game

You were doing well until you got here! :]
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Post Post #2416 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:53 pm

Post by Empire »

ok come on you know I meant town game >_>
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Post Post #2417 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:53 pm

Post by Cephrir »

I didn't but that makes a lot more sense now!
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Post Post #2418 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:42 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

In post 812, Malakittens wrote:
In post 810, Cephrir wrote:Naked votes are not scummy by default, the context is the thing

It annoys me when people pull that my wagon must have scum on it thing it's just incorrect


I mean how annoying is it to be wagoned with no basis of a case. I mean how the fuck am I supposed to dispute an 'invisible' case?? I can't and I'm sure you'll be hard-pressed to find anyone who can. If you do find someone who can dispute an invisible case let me know, so I can hydra from them and learn their ways of mafia.

In post 814, Malakittens wrote:Cephrir your vote is probably one of the worst of the votes on me. I mean you have barely interacted with me this whole game, but apparently found a way to hate every single post that I have written. It's just the timing of the fact you're willing to vote me when I'm pretty much in lynch range and then when the gear shifts you're willing to vote GM. It's like you are playing musical chairs and don't really care which one of us is lynched, but as long as one of them happens.

The only reason why I hold either of these posts in a "Ceph is probably not scum" kind of light is because Mala hates bussing; I wouldn't see either of these posts as containing the sort of drive or push that only a competent scumplayer could fake.
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Post Post #2419 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:45 pm

Post by Empire »

I don't deny that Mala might be able to theater like she did in #812 but #814 really gives me the vibe that she is trying to discredit Ceph-town because he's on target and is the easiest person to snipe at because he doesn't have much presence and he was kinda nonchalant about the whole thing.
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Post Post #2420 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:47 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

In post 2200, Empire wrote:I kinda wish I could go back in time and ask Mala why she had Nati listed as a townread (considering she basically never interacts with her or mentions her posts at all) but too late :/

Mala has a back and forth with BRO re: chainsawing GM that also makes him look pretty unlike a scumbuddy, I think.

The setup still REALLY bothers me. I wasn't expecting a third scum but rolecop/roleblocker/goon + a scum autowin condition vs. a miller + lovers seems a bit ridiculous. Can two BGs, a tracker, and a whatever Syryana was really balance against all that scumsidedness?


These?
In post 1063, Malakittens wrote:Yep cute BRO cute.

Remind me how saying you wouldn't mind lynching GM/I and not giving reasons isn't a naked vote...?

In post 1071, Malakittens wrote:How'd I chainsaw for GM?? I have really only mentioned GM once this whole game and that was just making fun at a Syrana post. Are you sure you aren't confusing me with someone else?
Maybe Mara instead?)

In post 1074, Malakittens wrote:Still not seeing that as a chainsaw by any means. I wasn't seeing nacho town and so I was wondering if maybe I was wrong. I have read nacho-scum right in the past, but always chickened out when following it to the ground until it was obv that he was scum with a guilty /:

I find it weird as hell she didn't push him as a result of these posts: she had the tiniest amount of meaningful interaction with BRO out of any player in the game, she disliked his vote on her earlier, why didn't this translate to a vote/suspicion? Why did she sneak him in as maybe town in her reads list?
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Post Post #2421 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:48 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

In post 2419, Empire wrote:I don't deny that Mala might be able to theater like she did in #812 but #814 really gives me the vibe that she is trying to discredit Ceph-town because he's on target and is the easiest person to snipe at because he doesn't have much presence and he was kinda nonchalant about the whole thing.

I can agree it doesn't feel like a scumbud ~vibe~. Cephrir was one of her earliest pushes, and a push formed when Mala was busy weird interacting with GM so it seems pretty counterintuitive for her to defend GM and half-throw Cephrir into the fire.
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Post Post #2422 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 4:55 pm

Post by Empire »

Oh BRO can ignore my question, for some reason, I was thinking of Mala chainsawing GM against Ceph and not Nacho (which she also did).
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Post Post #2423 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:00 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

In post 2400, Empire wrote:
In post 2395, Nachomamma8 wrote:OK.
Where do we go from here?

Finally back home. What do you think about the setup, too? I find the possibility of autowin had the lovers remained BP (seriously, why the fuck did they activate?) too good to be true.

I wonder if Cabd just expected the mafia to cc B+G or something.

I think the setup is kind of dumb.
The most disappointing part is the inno reveal; I loved the possibility of scum getting an autowin by counterclaiming B+G and thought it would be a sweet scum strategy to play for that win by crushing them early/dragging a fake bride and a groom to fake game and creating an optimal scenario for that fake bride and groom in late game. The real B+G also have no reason to hide, which is counter-intuitive and blah blah blah.

So how do I spec on a setup and a purpose of a setup I can't really wrap my head around?
I can see bodyguards in the game protecting a B+G that really don't need protection so scum can get kills off despite shooting at B+G/mislynch bait. Syr and I's roles seem like mislynch bait, again; scum is given roleblocker and a rolecop to deal with that power so it can hurt town more than it helps. I don't know why there's a miller in the game; not like Cabd thinks we're going to mislynch a miller because miller thanks to this site's meta. Flavor of miller is also the only flavor that has to do with their personal relationships to the people in game, so there's that.
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Post Post #2424 (ISO) » Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:01 pm

Post by Empire »

In post 670, BROseidon wrote:Cool I'm caught up now.

Not lynching in {AP, Tammy, NS, GiF, Pie}

Would prefer lynching in GM and Mala

This game is feeling a little too easy/circlejerky, though, which makes me uncomfortable.

What do you think about this though? He's throwing out five townreads and two of them are very easily mislynchable players, at least IMO, and just zeros in on the two flipped scum. Seems like he'd just be boxing himself in pretty hard pretty early if he's scum.

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