Mini 1755: Game Over

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 2.03

Performer (3): Boonskiies, droog, pisskop
droog (1): Performer
massive (1): Ircher


No Vote (6): UpTooLate, AxleGreaser, massive, Golden Robster, Keyser Söze, Heat

With 11 players living it takes 6/11 votes to lynch.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-02-02 08:00:00)

NOTES

AxleGreaser on LA until 26 January

[massive]

Neopolitans, as far as I know, only get vanilla / non-vanilla. They aren't full out rolecops.

[droog]

fair enough
though scum would probably shoot 7/10 times
if they had a pr to shoot

massive whats happening
where are you thinking of voting today

[massive]

I really need a full re-read but I'm thinking Performer / Heat and I need to make sure it isn't just reactionary. Keyser, Axle still look good to me. Would like more Boon.

[Ircher]

You're saying scum Ircher killed AI, despite AI hard defending Ircher? Wouldn't scum Ircher want to leave AI alive as long as possible, for AI to keep defending him?

Yeah, that was the end conclusion I came to as well. Spent most of the weekend thinking about this. I went through a number of scenarios (including scum-Ircher being bullied by his teammates, Ircher feeling like he had enough towncred to survive) but this one seems most likely. It might not need to be sorted today, but maybe Ircher can explain why he was going along with it all?

See below

One look at his ISO would be enough to be suspicious.

You can just say OMGUS, you don't have to point to some non-existent case.

Oh, not familiar with how you use some of these terms here. Thanks.

Likely Scum

- In Order
12. AlwaysInnocent - Well, it seems that AI has gione from an early likely town read to my currently highest scumread....

First of all, I will explain my "gut" read of AI that I earlier stated "prob. be best I didn't say". To begin with, when I made that statement, I was trying to avoid giving the scum more reasons to lynch me. Anyway, it boils down to three things: 1) (The part that I didn't want to share) Confirmation Bias that AI is town (is that proper usage?) and 2) AI has posted way more this game than he did in Newbie 1666 as scum. and 3) AI was defending me. (Another thing I really didn't want to share then).

It is very simple: you are less likely to get lynched if you have someone defending you.

I was gonna sort it out today, but AI got NK'd......

Speaking of NK, I have another theory on the reason AI was killed, but Boon would probably just use it as more reason to lynch me...

@Boon
It doesn't matter who you vote if all you do is catch every little thing that is wrong about my posts; it is quite obvious you are studying me meticulously and just skimming everyone else.

[Heat]

Speaking of NK, I have another theory on the reason AI was killed, but Boon would probably just use it as more reason to lynch me...

Just tell us. It's getting annoying when you say "oh, I have an idea!! but It'll just get me lynched so imma not say it trolol"

I really need a full re-read but I'm thinking Performer / Heat and I need to make sure it isn't just reactionary. Keyser, Axle still look good to me. Would like more Boon.

wanna elaborate?

[Heat]

VOTE: Ircher

[Keyser Söze]

Day One Analysis

Part Two

scum

heat (dont like his styre)
uptolate (weird style)

Let's see if droog pushes these scum-reads - I felt like droog was more fixated with pisskop at that time.

pisskop opposing the Raskolnikov wagon (pisskop's scum-read of Deus Asmoth/AlwaysInnocent is obvious though):

deus/ai are where we should be.

And the ras wagon is kinda crap and i havent split it between the poor logics and the sc pushes yet

I want to vote either Ras or Deus. Deus moreso, but as I think I will have trouble rallying anyone other than pisskop to that train :

VOTE: Raskol

massive didn't fully explain his scum-read of Raskolnikov but joins the easier wagon (

L-3

).

Ircher votes droog:

He currently ties Ras on scummiest player
currently (and yes, I do think both are scum).

no way
just...no way, how can Rask be town after saying that??

@Irch you stated Rask and Droog are scummiest, there's already a wagon on Rask. Suddenly you unvote Rask and vote Droog. How is this going to help when we're already halfway through day phase 1? If this keeps up, we'll reach a no lynch.

More strong words from Performer about scum-Raskolnikov.

Heat shows hesitation to join the Raskolnikov wagon:

I still don't like rask. I'm not really sure I want to lynch him today though. just gut feeling he might be a ML bait

Wouldn't scum-Heat just ignore commenting on the Raskolnikov wagon than fence-sit?

I'm up for that.

Raskolnikov says he is "up" for a wagon on Deus Asmoth (is this survivalist Raskolnikov? Will Raskolnikov vote Deus Asmoth to counter his own growing wagon?)

Again, AxleGreaser loves to get to the bottom of posts he is not fully satisfied with - this time, pressure on Raskolnikov (post 393, post 395 & post 397).


[My reads are strengthening through these Day One Analysis posts - I will share my full reads at the end - please bear with me].

[droog]

Speaking of NK, I have another theory on the reason AI was killed, but Boon would probably just use it as more reason to lynch me...

let's hear it
boon is pretty set on you so
thats not a very good reason to hold back

[Boonskiies]

I mean, Ircher is digging his own grave with me by continuing to not do anything but state that he 'would' do something. Like, I'm not even voting Ircher.

[Boonskiies]

Also, am I not supposed to monitor what everyone is doing? Seriously? What kind of argument is 'it doesn't matter what I say, if you watch everything I say'? That's just him trying not to have a scum slip.

[Keyser Söze]

Day One Analysis

Part Three

everything performer has said on this page is towny

Ok, thinking droog and Performer are town-town or one-scum-one-town, not scum-scum.

AlwaysInnocent votes UpTooLate: post 400.

Here we have massive explaining his naked vote to Raskolnikov. At this time I'm thinking the only thing Raskolnikov can chew on is attacking his own wagon:

@massive I didn't see anything in your posts about me, so why the vote?

Mainly the unfounded defense of pisskop's wagon. There's nothing in my mind that should make a townie jump to derail a wagon like that, especially day one. Hence, not townie.

It's admittedly an echo-reason, but yet another nail in Raskolnikov's coffin.

Meh, I don't think Raskol is scum.

^^ this comment caught Heat's attention:

I'd like to know where you're at, and it looks like some of your opinions have changed
Namely ras

Now is this town-Heat curious to find out AlwaysInnocent's shift of read or scum-Heat jumping on AlwaysInnocent defending Raskolnikov?

AxleGreaser adds another vote with a firm case to support the Raskolnikov wagon: post 412. Good work Batman. (

L-3

)

I like AxleGreaser's vote/case because it has escalated the wagon to

'yup, this lynch is gonna happen' level

.



Here was the VC, with both Keyser Söze and AxleGreaser now both on board I felt like this was a done deal:

Raskolnikov (4): Performer, Keyser Söze, massive, AxleGreaser
Pisskop (2): Deus Asmoth, droog
AlwaysInnocent (2): Heat, pisskop
Ircher (1): Raskolnikov
droog (1): Ircher
UpTooLate (1): AlwaysInnocent

Will mafia now bus or counter?

I would have to stay that I generally agree with everything Ras says here.

But, let's forget Pisskop's wan; I'm currently thinking {Ras, Droog, Heat} are our scum team with Droog the strongest read and Heat the weakest.

Here's an awkward post from Ircher. One part he's saying he 'generally agree's' with Raskolnikov's defence, but still has Raskolnikov in his scum-list.

Ircher emphasizes the wagons he supports:

I'm thinking Ras, Heat, and Droog. What about the rest of you?

ras has the leading wagon
and is your second-biggest scumread

why are you waiting?

Indeed. But what about your thoughts on Raskolnikov? droog's vote had been sat on pisskop.

There is now growing pressure on Ircher.

droog votes Ircher: post 437.
UpTooLate votes Ircher: post 440.

Those votes on Ircher are really, really, really awful.

Yes, this is what I was feeling at the time. I do not like UpTooLate's vote/reason.

I think AI/droog are where we should be lynching.

pisskop is now set on a AlwaysInnocent/droog lynch.

Just vote for UpTooLate and I will be less likely to consider you scum buddies.

AlwaysInnocent still set on UpTooLate's lynch.

VC, Ircher's wagon is catching up...
Raskolnikov (4): Performer, Keyser Söze, massive, AxleGreaser
Ircher (3): Raskolnikov, droog, UpTooLate


This is very poorly timed unvote from Performer:

UNVOTE: Doesn't look like Ras is the way to go . His defense looks more Townie than scum motivated.

Raskolnikov and Ircher are now neck and neck.

But wait! droog unvotes Ircher (post 495) and Performer votes droog (post 498).

[AxleGreaser]

Yeah, that was the end conclusion I came to as well. Spent most of the weekend thinking about this. I went through a number of scenarios (including scum-Ircher being bullied by his teammates, Ircher feeling like he had enough towncred to survive) but this one seems most likely. It might not need to be sorted today,

second guessing night kills is HIGHLY perilous. It is bad enough when you can challenge any reasoning and get it explained. As scum AI could easily be primarily a PR snipe.
If you are

IR

&&

Ras

and scum, you know

AI

is not

I don't think being in a scumteam would explain this behaviour, I get the feeling they're in a

neighbourhood

or something else is going on I can't understand. I don't feel as comfortable with this as before though at this rate I don't think I'll get what I want anyways.

and while Ras, was scum and potentially is misdirects and wifom, I kinda believe, he considered neighborhood actually possible.
Which is then a town associative point for IR.

(open question could the possibility of AI neighboriser be unknown to team mate????, I don't think I am seeing that either. (but that more a gut guess))

[droog]

keyseys posts are fun to read
easily still my top townread

[Keyser Söze]

Day One Analysis

Part Four

pisskop still focused on AlwaysInnocent: post 509.

Well, I'd be fine with a lynch on droog or him or Boon.

Raskolnikov is still not on Performer's menu. Performer supports a AlwaysInnocent/droog/Boonskiies lynch.

Spoiler: Performers earlier position on Raskolnikov

no way
just...no way, how can Rask be town after saying that??

@Irch you stated Rask and Droog are scummiest, there's already a wagon on Rask. Suddenly you unvote Rask and vote Droog. How is this going to help when we're already halfway through day phase 1? If this keeps up, we'll reach a no lynch.

More strong words from Performer about scum-Raskolnikov.

Was this a suffice reason for Performer's change in read?:

UNVOTE: Doesn't look like Ras is the way to go . His defense looks more Townie than scum motivated.

pisskop votes droog: post 526.

Ircher shares his scum-read of Raskolnikov in a read-list, votes Boonskiies:

Likely Scum

Ras - I like how he decides to stop contributing when a wagon was formed on him. I also strongly dislike his entrance.

The votes are now spread out (can the Raskolnikov wagon be snuffed out?):
Raskolnikov (3):, Keyser Söze, massive, AxleGreaser
Ircher (2): Raskolnikov, UpTooLate
droog (2): pisskop, Performer
Boonskiies (2): Ircher, AlwaysInnocent
Pisskop (1): Golden Robster
AlwaysInnocent (1): Heat


Raskolnikov paints a scummy picture of droog, but then concludes droog must be a serial killer (post 610) - because only Raskolnikov knows who is mafia

Boonskiies votes Ircher (post 611).

Heat wants AlwaysInnocent lynched:

I want to lynch AI today.

Raskolnikov (3):, Keyser Söze, massive, AxleGreaser
Ircher (3): Raskolnikov, UpTooLate, Boonskiies
droog (2): pisskop, Performer
Boonskiies (2): Ircher, AlwaysInnocent
Pisskop (1): Golden Robster
AlwaysInnocent (1): Heat

OK, a Raskolnikov-UpTooLate-Boonskiies mafia team looking a bit less likely now

pisskop town-reads Ircher: post 633.

After pisskop reads Raskolnikov's ISO, he is "less eager" to vote him: (post 638)

droog votes Performer: post 644.

It feels like pisskop is scared to give AxleGreaser a town-read (healthy paranoia). It also sounds like pisskop didn't know Raskolnikov was scum: (post 653).

Likely Scum

Ras - Still one of my top scum reads as he has not really participated ever since Droog replaced in. While right now I think Boon is prpb. at the top of my list (some reasons are prob. selfish), I would think he be the best lynch for D1. None of his behavior has been extremely towny, and he has been around the top of my list right now.

Like I stated above, imho, Ras would be the most logical lynch right now.

UNVOTE: Boon
VOTE: Ras

A very important read/vote/reason here, at a crucial time. This should help you to sort Ircher for those who haven't.

Is the Raskolnikov lynch back on?

[AxleGreaser]

Day One Analysis

Part Three

Here we have massive explaining his naked vote to Raskolnikov. At this time I'm thinking the only thing Raskolnikov can chew on is attacking his own wagon:

@massive I didn't see anything in your posts about me, so why the vote?

Mainly the unfounded defense of pisskop's wagon. There's nothing in my mind that should make a townie jump to

derail a wagon

like that, especially day one. Hence, not townie.

It's admittedly an echo-reason, but yet another nail in Raskolnikov's coffin.

derail a wagon

is a new clearer more alignment indicative statement of what was wrong with 131 than before.
Scum jumping me too onto wagon early dont usually adjust the sheets to be hospital corners. That refinement is one of the things that let me vote the wagon also.
As you have noted me voting it as well as you and massive made it a bit of a likely done deal. Thus i had significant reluctance about voting it, because if it had been wrong the day would have been way too easy for scum.

I seem to rate the massive vote more highly than you. I think I do that, almost partly because of the dynamic of it starting more naked, Rask probing for a reason and massive giving what i saw as a good 'novel' one.
<scumRas:"Please bus me harder"(392) / scumMass:"err ok, boom sucker"(405)> does not seem like thing that would happen there. Social dynamic would feel very wrong.

At the day 1 end i wanted the Ras flip so much because of how much a scum flip was going to say about people alignments. (as well as being most likely to flip scum)

[Ircher]

I mean, Ircher is digging his own grave with me by continuing to not do anything but state that he 'would' do something. Like, I'm not even voting Ircher.

(As they all say -- This is only the 2nd time I kept my ideas to myself, and if you didn't notice, I explained the other in my "Final D1 Reads" list I posted at the start of D2).

Well, ok, here's the theory:

Scum sees an opportunity to get me mislynched. They try to get me lynched but cannot because AI is around (they would def. need AI's support if they are gonna get a lynch on me). Therefore, they NK AI to remove the impediment in getting a mislynch accomplished.

[droog]

irchir's theory on why ai was killed
is plausible

that combined with keysey's point
on when irchir joined the rask wagon

makes it very unlikely that irchir is scum
boon you have a tall order to peddle
if you want to keep arguing that

[pisskop]

Im happy with were we are. I think its possible that scumboons would push for one person, but thats not really solid.

[AxleGreaser]

clarification.

what i saw as a good 'novel' one.

This could be seen as massive stating it wasn't novel.

Oh look, Axle says it better than I did in 395.

While 395 does grind the (or a very similar) point into the ground.

this is the kind of way of addressing/expressing the point that gets people lynched.

There's nothing in my mind that should make a townie jump to derail a wagon like that, especially day one.

[Keyser Söze]

Day One Analysis

Part Five

Ircher on pisskop:

Its the way you play. Its different from the norm (so is mine it seems), so people dislike it. Anyway, other than a few early misunderstandings, I do think your playstyle is pretty effective.

Out of the mouths of babes!

Raskolnikov (4): Keyser Söze, massive, AxleGreaser, Ircher
Ircher (3): Raskolnikov, UpTooLate, Boonskiies
droog (2): pisskop, Performer

i could do a ras wagon
not my favorite but i
dont see anything good there

droog smells blood - it's not the most confident of posts though.

post 676 - I didn't like UpTooLate's post at the time, and I'm still not comfortable with it. UpTooLate explains her vote on Ircher was a reaction test for AlwaysInnocent...

...then starts a fresh wagon on Heat. Why didn't she get her teeth into the Raskolnikov wagon?

droog asking us to look at Performer:

Does anyone have any reads on perf
Besides me

Boonskiies guilty of confirmation-bias here versus Ircher (or scum-misdirection? ):

Really? See this everyone. He is legitimately going from one to another. My wagon started picking up steam, he went to it, based off of 'lurksack' reasoning. Now he's going to Ras, the current wagon. Come on. This actually gives town cred to Ras for me right now.

droog up for the UpTooLate lynch:

maybe ill reexamine utl
im not opposed to that lynch today

Raskolnikov calls Ircher an active lurker: post 723.

AlwaysInnocent votes UpToLate: post 750.

Mmm. Ircher was a red herring and my next strongest scumread is on axle who's probably won't go anywhere today. welp.

Or...

"my vote is parked on a wagon that'll be going nowhere"

.

pisskop votes Performer: post 764

AxleGreaser has set his stall - Raskolnikov is today's lynch (post 769).

Raskolnikov (4): Keyser Söze, massive, AxleGreaser, Ircher
Performer (2): droog, pisskop
Ircher (1): Boonskiies
droog (1): Performer
AlwaysInnocent (1): Heat
Heat (1): UpTooLate
UpTooLate (1): AlwaysInnocent

Deadline approaches!

Can Raskolnikov survive? Surely now would be a good time to bus...

[Ircher]

'it doesn't matter what I say, if you watch everything I say'? T

The key here is you are

too focused

on me. I have no problem with you studying my posts, but please, don't

just

study my posts.

@Massive
I looked at your ISO - Less than 20 posts out of a game with over 900 posts....

20 / 900 = 2 / 90....

That's some great lurking you've done! And, your slot wasn't replaced! So, I'm just wondering: why haven't you contributed much. Activity isn't always scum-indicative, but it is certainly not something to be overlooked.

[Heat]

20 / 900 = 2 / 90....

pls reduce ur fractions further

UNVOTE:

[pisskop]

(0.2/9)

[Heat]

1/45