Mini 1755: Game Over

[Dierfire]

VOTE COUNT 5.03

massive (1): pisskop

No Vote (4): AxleGreaser, Heat, massive, Ircher

With 5 players living it takes 3/5 votes to lynch.

TIMER

(expired on 2016-02-27 08:00:00)

NOTES

None

[Heat]

Sorry for the absence
I'll read up tonight

[Ircher]

Yeah, I've had time to post, etc lately....

[massive]

I'm here and will catch up. Scum spot is #3, though, pisskop.

[massive]

I looked at droog and he's not that great, he's my #3 at this point. Not as bad as Ircher or Axle but no way towny.

Anyone think this is all town?

Ircher (1): Raskolnikov

^^ all day 1. thats not a bus, its superobvious in hindsight so scum tend to be hyperaware of that kind of crap.

Why is no one fact-checking you? Rask unvoted Ircher in 758 and called him a "red herring" in 761 -- when it became obvious Rask was going to be the lynch, he started trying to help Ircher save face.

All day 2 massive rode the fence while the performer and utl wagons formed.

Why is no one fact-checking you? When I left Friday, UTL had one vote and I had expressed exactly my thoughts on the Performer wagon. UTL wagon was 3 when I came back on Monday (hardly a wagon at 6 to lynch) and didn't get any attention until you decided to hop to it at deadline and try to cagefight me over it.

Going to re-read UTL's ISO and then try and read pisskop, although I suspect that will need to be in context.

[AxleGreaser]

SERIOUSLY KNOCK THIS OFF

[Dierfire]

I don't really want to post an unchanged vote count on this same page.
I'm just checking in to reassure everyone that I'm still here.
---
Prodding pisskop

[pisskop]

yea.

ill do more here.


lets start with what we agree upon.

is heat town?
am i town?

[AxleGreaser]

yea.

ill do more here.


lets start with what we agree upon.

is heat town?
am i town?

Are you asking the mod?

My answer would be.

PK: not entirely sure. (I was, but that was relative to my actual scum reads, some of which then flipped town)
Heat: and not entirely sure.

But you were discussing things with massive (or making a case against him) last i saw.

and I have question in the air to Ircher that answering you more explicitly would preempt.

You had previously also summarily put Ircher in that pool

Ircher (1): Raskolnikov

^^ all day 1. thats not a bus, its superobvious in hindsight so scum tend to be hyperaware of that kind of crap.

What is super obvious in hindsight?

Both the flipped scum pushing a low hanging fruit lynch as the counter wagon? (Ircher Town)

Both the scum voting a buddy they intend to Bus? (Ircher Scum) The points they raised about Ircher were as i recall basically genuine.
Rask was lynched largely for his odd jump off you, (and his responses after and about that) not for anything strange about his push on Ircher.

As pointed out by Massive it was not all day.

They were both on Ircher, until they noticed something weird with AI. (UTL @676 then flagged again to Rask 728
Then they both got off. 758

I am not seeing an actual argument it was not a bus.

[massive]

I don't think there's any way Rask gives a blanket town read to BOTH his scumbuddies and ONLY his scumbuddies in one post. So, for that reason and maybe that reason alone, Heat is town.

I think you (pisskop) are town but I also think I may be guilty of underestimating you either way, so I am trying hard not to give in to the paranoia, and just focus on what I know from Rask/UTL and their interactions.

[pisskop]

Oh, Im a pretty good scum player, but you wont be catching me wth blind paranoia.

In general Im predatory, directed, and pre-thought as scum.

[pisskop]

With heat off the lynchlist for the day.


You seem to think axle is town, but I do have a sinking suspicion of him.

[pisskop]

The real issue that springs to mind wrt icher is that they voted you after I did. Im not sure why they did, I have reread that section, but once they saw it wasnt going through they unvoted.

I didnt even notice until recently it was so quiet.

[massive]

I do think Axle is town. There have been way too many times that he's posted my exact thoughts. If someone is reading the game the same way I am, then I tend to think they're the same alignment.

[AxleGreaser]

The real issue that springs to mind wrt icher is that they voted you after I did. Im not sure why they did, I have reread that section, but once they saw it wasnt going through they unvoted.

I didnt even notice until recently it was so quiet.

It was not just that.
Ircher started the day portraying strong/ positive/ proactive

Spoiler:

Ircher Feeling his oats

Let's make this clear:

WE ARE USING ALL OUR TIME TODAY

Also, it is

3

to lynch

Right now, huge FOS on Axle.

but then it all went to wishy washy. 1975 1977

and the scum story that matches that, is as scum, the end is in sight. He just needed one 'hard to get' mislynch. {PK/Mass/Axle}

So first there was false run at me (1963+++), then a naked flip onto Massive (2012) (by reason of POE(2021))
but conveniently dropping in behind PKs, town block.

A previous recent Ircher statement on Massive was.

I still see Massive as a nullish read really... He just doesn't post enough for me to guage his alignment.

[AxleGreaser]

I do think Axle is town. There have been way too many times that he's posted my exact thoughts. If someone is reading the game the same way I am, then I tend to think they're the same alignment.

That is the basis of my town read on you, except i chuck in an extra twist of liking to find places where I also don't think you'd bother(or risk) faking that part as scum.
EG, being concerned (on a wait and see basis) by Kaiser's interaction with newer players. Turns out hes just a nice guy.
742 Seems like risky way as scum to try and get town points by breaking up a fight(dong measuring contest)

It also explained to me what was frustrating me but i had not yet verbalised.
Saying what I am going to think later, when I work it out gets double points.

[Ircher]

I townread PK for the following reasons:

1. Ras's utter derailment of the PK wagon. This really didn't look like WK of a scumbuddy, it seems more like scum trying to get towncred off of someone they **know** are town but failed epicly at.

2. PK's disinterest (self-vote to prove a point, etc) at the beginning of the game. PK has said himself that he loves to play as scum, much more so than as town. So, PK's lack of interest at the beginning could be used as a sign he's town --> He wasn't interested cuz he didn't roll scum.

3. The way PK switched wagons D2..... While I'd still like a reason for it, I feel that it wasn't just a move to try to garner towncred by jumping off the wagon of a person he **knew 100%** was town.

4. Similarly, PK began to feel GR was town during D4. Once again, I get town vibes; if you think about it, the reasons against GR weren't very extreme, and myself was starting to think he was town. Unlike UTL and Ras, GR DID seem to be trying to engage and help town, he just failed to.

5. Idc what you say, but it was not 100% obvious that Boon was town after his hammer D3. The very fact that PK missed the pm from Boon loojs very genuine. Plus, PK did imo have the option to deny the pm, and when Boon flips later, if he's questioned about it, he could mention the fact that town has a roleblocker who could've roleblocked Boon D1.

6. D1, I saw what looked like a TvT fight between him and AI, as both were using poor reasoning to say the other was scum. If PK was truly scum, he'd prob. would've tried harder to get AI lynched; it really wouldn't've been hard. No, PK was just trolling AI.

[Ircher]

So first there was false run at me (1963+++), then a naked flip onto Massive (2012) (by reason of POE(2021))
but conveniently dropping in behind PKs, town block.

1. As I said in that first post, it was an FoS, not a full on Scumread.
2. At this point, PoE is town's best friend. Having satisfactorily concluded you are town (for today), that leaves with PoE.
3. Convenient? Um, no. Just, no. I just haven't had time to explain my PK read.

[Ircher]

Time for a read list. The game has almost been solved already.

From town to scum:

Read List D1 V1

{AlwaysInnocent}

{Ircher}

{Performer}

{Lilac, Heat}

{Massive}
{Mafiaturtle}
{Burning_Earth, Deus}

{Raskolnikov}

{Pisskop, Keyser, Axle}

Read List D1 V2

{AlwaysInnocent}

{Ircher, Keyser}

{Performer, UpTooLate}

{Lilac, Massive}

{Burning_Earth}

{Deus, Heat}

{Axle, Raskolnikov}

{Pisskop}

Read List D1 V3

{AlwaysInnocent}

{Ircher, Keyser}

{Deus}

{Performer}

{Lilac, Massive, Burning_Earth}

{Axle, Heat}

{UpTooLate, Raskolnikov}

{Pisskop}

Read List 1.4

{AlwaysInnocent}

{Ircher, Keyser}

{Deus}

{Performer, Droog, Raskolnikov}

{Axle, Boonskiies, Massive}

{Pisskop}

{UpTooLate, Heat}

I am still very suspicious of Pisskop, but I am starting to think of the slight possibility that it was initial disinterest. Still, his posts do not seem genuine, so I still think it is probable that he is scum.

My attention has shifted to UpTooLate and Heat now. I am pretty sure at least one of them is scum. Both are highly opportunistic.

[Ircher]

I think we should lynch Massive cuz there's no alternative.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Reads

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective):
1. Ircher (100%)- Role PM

Likely Town

- In Order
2. Pisskop (90%) - For many reasons including Ras's derailment of the wagon D1 and the reaction PK gave concerning Boon's role
3. Heat (82%) - The associative case with Ras and UTL, and I really see genuine, town-aligned motives behind Heat's posts; aka, I've seen 0 opportunism from this slot.

Leaning Town

4. AxleGreaser (60%) - My partial reread has renewed my trust in this slot, but my read has grown very paranoid due to PoE. I will reserve judgement til tomorrow.

Null

Neutral

5. Massive (55%) - Literally a 95% PoE read. The other 5% is a very slight townread from his posts, but overall, he is my weakest read and my weakest townread. I literally have zero true scumreads right now.

Leaning Scum

Likely Scum

[Ircher]

The only thing that worries me about PK is he is scumread in all 4 of AI's official readlists.

[AxleGreaser]

@Massive
WAIT --

PK is conf town.

Overstatement -- He is

"extremely likely"

to be town. I think I explained my thoughts on the matter yesterday

Yeah you did explain your thoughts yesterday and they were different

Pisskop -

Meh, it is unlikely he's scum.

Furthermore, he has confirmed Boon as town, something that scum definitely wouldn't want. There's no reason scum would even consider that as only 1 remains, so unless the mod is bastard (and mind you this is a normal game), PK cold tech. be considerd conf town for confirming Boon.

When it

cha

nged

since yesterday.

3. Convenient? Um, no. Just, no. I just haven't had time to explain my PK read.

and that change happened(1970) right after when PK implicitly town read you 1968 and heat into the town block.

and the stuff your current PK read are made out of..
2041 and

The only thing that worries me about PK is he is scumread in all 4 of AI's official readlists.

don't look confusingly similar to conf town. (they might be strong lean)

Spoiler:

note that is not me arguing with the truth of the read, or individual conclusions, it is me saying what your read means to you even if you believe it all.
A distinction between conf town and strong reads is that conf town players are town for all to see and its not about personal interpretation of events.

I feel like what you want your reads to be comes first then you are finding explanations that fit as best as you can.

[AxleGreaser]

I recommend ISO rereads of [...] and AI today.

Why are you specifically recommending AI and not say Keiser? (or the other flipped experienced townies?)

Keiser would be by I think most estimates the more skilled player?
Apart from that.
AI played D1 as bit of a loose cannon and frequently didn't explain himself.

[AxleGreaser]

ya.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... overview=1
Ok.
Game is dead? == seemingly no one has anything they are doing


The game is for me in an "interesting state"
So if Ircher and heat are planning on Voting Massive today
(also if they are planning on voting pisskop or me. I will need about 24 hrs notice before hammer.)

(There are certain things that I regard as inaccuracies, in the thread. If the three of Pisskop Massive and Myself are alive com night time i am ok with that.
There are actual frequently times when I look at the thread and say wtf. And just walk away from it as per (because of the idea in 2030)
So normally I just let it slide. Tomorrow however, if only one of Pk or massive are alive then stuff can potentially get spun without any check or balance.

Example. (I don't actually know how much more there is, I just know I have felt: bleh about stuff.
As i recall it, whats seem to me to be Inaccurate/unclear things have been said about Boon and the friendly neighbor. In an of itself i don't regard that as alignment indicative: people do that.

Boon Town read Pk all D1 (See reads lists 612 etal). Boon had the mod PM PK N1 that boon was mod confirmed to be the FN.
On night 2 a theoretical scum PK cant sensibly kill Boon as after a friendly neighbor flip in hindsight it would have been obvious who he PM'd or at least a very small pool of obvious.
That (non death) is thus 100% non alignment indicative for competent players.

Boon brought up the whole notion of FN, by awkwardly claiming to be the best night kill(1736), then flipping it into fake claiming RC was the FN.

PK only refused to acknowledge the PM from boon, but at the time boon had not explicitly claimed. At that time townies lying about power roles they are aware of is just fine. Making up BS (PK forgot,yeah.... no.) to avoid explicitly stating you had lied is also SOP.

Valid Reads that may or may not exist on exactly how all that stuff can only reasonably be made in light of understanding what actually happened.

Ima going to be sad , if scum dont flip today, I die tonight and the thread runs down a rabbit hole made of untruths. I can live with it if i am guaranteed BOTH of PK and massive are alive if I am dead.

Thus:

The game is for me in an "interesting state"
So if Ircher and heat are planning on Voting Massive today
(also if they are planning on voting Pisskop or me. I will need about 24 hrs notice before hammer.)