Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[pisskop]

48 hours have been added to the deadline

Votecount 1.20

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Burnign Crystal

- (5), Aneninen, KuroiXHF, davesaz, kop, Mad King Ashnard

Mad King Ashnard

- (4) Almost50, Kain Tepes, Texcat, Burning Crystal

Kop

- (1) Acryon

Extrapolated Eagle

- (1) Ranger

Texcat

- (1) Chilledtea

Kuroixhf

- (1) xtoxm

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Not Voting

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With 13 Alive it takes 7 to Lynch!
Day 01 Deadlne is (expired on 2016-03-05 09:00:00).

[Aneninen]

pigeon

[Almost50]

Ranger has replaced Fire Starter

Now there's an interesting unexpected turn of events.

WELCOME

[KainTepes]

WELCOME FIRE STARTER...

[acryon]

WELCOME FIRE STARTER...

Are you planning on doing anything this game?

If you are, here are some genuine tips:
-Stop typing in all caps, like yesterday.
-Look through the game and identify posts which seem off/disingenuous/misrepresentations and call them out.
-Ask questions of players who seem to be playing in a general fashion that seems off/disingenuous.
-Stop typing in all caps.
-Question motives and the logic being used to propagate wagons.
-Stop typing in all caps.

[texcat]

Am I the only one who thinks that KT is an alt and is doing this on purpose??

[Almost50]

Are you part of the town or not? You have a part to play in convincing people and getting people to agree, which I haven't seen you really do, and then you expect to leave and have it just happen organically?

And you will rarely ever see me doing it. I do have a problem that I'm very well aware of, and that's me not being too convincing. I'm no leader and I'm not that good in making speeches. Only when something is too obvious AND someone perceptive enough is willing to pick up the transmission and fine tune to it will I ever be getting thing my way. Otherwise I end up talking to myself.

Now in this game there are some good players with fine tuned reception, and they're more capable of broadcasting their cases and leading the town. Unfortunately, they do not share my views for now. Yes, they did receive my town vibes well (and I very much appreciate that at least), but I'm still working under the assumption there are 2 factions and that is why we don't seem to agree on a lynch.

Now let me elaborate (since I haven't been posting much and you're obviously requesting that I do present my case):

If we had town + 3 scum (+SK or w/o one) we would have had 3-4 town players agreeing on someone (be that a real scum or a bad town). The scum would've pushed on the "bad town" already and we would've got a mislynch. If the town players were agreeing on a SCUM player, we would've had 2 obvious wagons much earlier.

The fact we have our votes "jumping around" and randomely distributed leads me to believe it's bc every town player is failing to draw a connection between at least 2 players for a scum team, with the scum themselves not agreeing on a proper mislynch to push for. So, 2 scum teams wil just 2 players each makes sense for them being of minor effect in pushing wagons, while many town players suspect 2 or 3 players for scum but can't find a true bond between them bc they're likely to be suspecting 1 town + 1 of each faction, so they all a pear to be not connected (which IS true).

I hoipe what I'm saying makes "some" sense here. It does to me.

The good news though is we've got Ranger here. I already think Burning Crystal is town, and I was leaning town on Ranger's spot, so together they can figure out Mad King (whom I'm still suspicious of) and then we go from there.

OF COURSE, there is always a chance I might be wrong, but then this will be found with some flips, so -for now- I have nothing more to add and no reason to change my view on what setup we might be playing.

[Kop]

I'm presuming you were leaning town on that slot, purely down to Persivul, because Firestarter, didn't add anything. That whole perception to that slot is it's null right now, simply because even if you were town reading Persivul, could be undone by Ranger. Different players, different styles, different attributes etc etc.

Let's hear what Ranger has to say, before I think we should start reading that slot eh?

How do you read Burning Crystal as town? Is it because of the stance they took regarding your claim?

[Almost50]

Probably. Scum!Titus would've seized the chance to make a push on town!me all the way. But that's not all. I get town vibes from their posts (both of them) and reactions to everything being said of/to them.

[Kop]

Probably. Scum!Titus would've seized the chance to make a push on town!me all the way. But that's not all. I get town vibes from their posts (both of them) and reactions to everything being said of/to them.

Is there not a slight chance Burning Crystal has taken this stance, to get town credit?

Who would be your preferred lynch?

[Almost50]

Is there not a slight chance Burning Crystal has taken this stance, to get town credit?

Who would be your preferred lynch?

1- It's possible, but not very probable IMHO.
2- One of the 4 in my lynch pool. I'm currently on Mad King, but I'm really tempted to lynch KT now. The problem with KT is I don't know if I'm hating them "just" for scum or hating their posting style more which could be making them look even more scummy for me.

Also, I know myself that my early reads on the game are usually off especially when there have been lots of replacemnets, but this one mostly concerns the EE/chilled spot bc I'm scum reading them. It works FOR the Ranger slot, bc if I'm still reading them as town after the first replacement then they must've been really good bc I tend to suspect the replacement slots more.

Also, Fire Starter actually did provide a wall post of reads, and I don't see why scum!Fire would do that if they intended to sub-out. I mean, if you hated your slot and intended to leave, why would you go through the trouble of typing all this? I'd've suspected them a li'l bit more had they decided to stay.

[davesaz]

Am I the only one who thinks that KT is an alt and is doing this on purpose??

No opinion on the alt vs new question.

No doubt that it's on purpose. Torn between "scum trying to skate by" vs. "alignment neutral attention seeker". I had that thought right from the very beginning and events since then have not done much to change it.

[Kop]

Is there not a slight chance Burning Crystal has taken this stance, to get town credit?

Who would be your preferred lynch?

1- It's possible, but not very probable IMHO.
2- One of the 4 in my lynch pool. I'm currently on Mad King, but I'm really tempted to lynch KT now. The problem with KT is I don't know if I'm hating them "just" for scum or hating their posting style more which could be making them look even more scummy for me.

Also, I know myself that my early reads on the game are usually off especially when there have been lots of replacemnets, but this one mostly concerns the EE/chilled spot bc I'm scum reading them. It works FOR the Ranger slot, bc if I'm still reading them as town after the first replacement then they must've been really good bc I tend to suspect the replacement slots more.

Also, Fire Starter actually did provide a wall post of reads, and I don't see why scum!Fire would do that if they intended to sub-out. I mean, if you hated your slot and intended to leave, why would you go through the trouble of typing all this? I'd've suspected them a li'l bit more had they decided to stay.

Thanks for correcting me on firestarter, I actually forgot he had posted that wall post. It still stands though, he possibly at time didn't have any thought to sub out, we obviously won't know the reason why he left. I think I'm awaiting to see how Ranger takes over and what he does to influence the game.

It's not very probable, but there is a chance or possibility that could be the case. I've seen scum coaching (in PT), where they basically tell someone to defend a slot that a partner could be chasing, so that if it did backfire on them, it disconnects any possible connections left by the person doing the push. There is many different ways you could take the whole Burning Crystal stance towards you, could be opportunistic scum defending to get you on side, or general town telling the truth and seeing it for what it is.

[Kop]

Am I the only one who thinks that KT is an alt and is doing this on purpose??

No opinion on the alt vs new question.

No doubt that it's on purpose. Torn between "scum trying to skate by" vs. "alignment neutral attention seeker". I had that thought right from the very beginning and events since then have not done much to change it.

He was vocal at the beginning of the game, albeit not a good vocalist he proved, but now I'm slightly worried how much he is dropping out of the game, whilst people contribute to suspicions, then he pops in with posts non related to what's being discussed then disappearing again.

[acryon]

Spoiler:

Are you part of the town or not? You have a part to play in convincing people and getting people to agree, which I haven't seen you really do, and then you expect to leave and have it just happen organically?

And you will rarely ever see me doing it. I do have a problem that I'm very well aware of, and that's me not being too convincing. I'm no leader and I'm not that good in making speeches. Only when something is too obvious AND someone perceptive enough is willing to pick up the transmission and fine tune to it will I ever be getting thing my way. Otherwise I end up talking to myself.

Now in this game there are some good players with fine tuned reception, and they're more capable of broadcasting their cases and leading the town. Unfortunately, they do not share my views for now. Yes, they did receive my town vibes well (and I very much appreciate that at least), but I'm still working under the assumption there are 2 factions and that is why we don't seem to agree on a lynch.

Now let me elaborate (since I haven't been posting much and you're obviously requesting that I do present my case):

If we had town + 3 scum (+SK or w/o one) we would have had 3-4 town players agreeing on someone (be that a real scum or a bad town). The scum would've pushed on the "bad town" already and we would've got a mislynch. If the town players were agreeing on a SCUM player, we would've had 2 obvious wagons much earlier.

The fact we have our votes "jumping around" and randomely distributed leads me to believe it's bc every town player is failing to draw a connection between at least 2 players for a scum team, with the scum themselves not agreeing on a proper mislynch to push for. So, 2 scum teams wil just 2 players each makes sense for them being of minor effect in pushing wagons, while many town players suspect 2 or 3 players for scum but can't find a true bond between them bc they're likely to be suspecting 1 town + 1 of each faction, so they all a pear to be not connected (which IS true).

I hoipe what I'm saying makes "some" sense here. It does to me.

The good news though is we've got Ranger here. I already think Burning Crystal is town, and I was leaning town on Ranger's spot, so together they can figure out Mad King (whom I'm still suspicious of) and then we go from there.

OF COURSE, there is always a chance I might be wrong, but then this will be found with some flips, so -for now- I have nothing more to add and no reason to change my view on what setup we might be playing.

Eh I have a hard time with this theory since it requires a lot of assumptions. I'm been in plenty of games that weren't multiballs where the town had trouble with a consensus. Don't think it can be attributed to setup, especially since setup spec doesn't help us at all right now since we are generally concerned D1 with sketchy pushes which exist mostly outside of associations.

[Kop]

We should take our focus completely off the setup.

Let's agree on a lynch candidate, then we can discuss the possible setups up when we have flips to deal with, then we can be assured what we could possibly be dealing with.

[acryon]

We should take our focus completely off the setup.

Let's agree on a lynch candidate, then we can discuss the possible setups up when we have flips to deal with, then we can be assured what we could possibly be dealing with.

Yes, I agree, which is the problem with Almost. Any of his pushes are essentially based in setup spec, which is very silly at this point, and has no hope of bringing people on board.

[KainTepes]

i think xtoxm is mafia... he has not been posting much...

Almost50 is also a bit SUSPICIOUS?? i dont mean to type in ALL CAPS but many of his posts have lots of info but they are mainly surrounding what is the setup which isnt really as important right now as catching scum... And I Think it is MORE LIKELY that SCUM would be interested in the setup more than TOWN, since scum will want to catch the POWER ROLES...

[Kop]

If we're basing lynches around setup specifications, then we're onto a hiding to nothing. It feels more lynching on the basis of setups, than people being scummy.

It helps, but not day one. Once we have flips, we can base a lot of day one to the setup specifications which could give useful information.

[KainTepes]

KOP and ANENINEM are the most town-like to Me...

[acryon]

i think xtoxm is mafia... he has not been posting much...

Almost50 is also a bit SUSPICIOUS?? i dont mean to type in ALL CAPS but many of his posts have lots of info but they are mainly surrounding what is the setup which isnt really as important right now as catching scum... And I Think it is MORE LIKELY that SCUM would be interested in the setup more than TOWN, since scum will want to catch the POWER ROLES...

See this actually makes a good point. You still probably don't have to put any of those words in all caps, because I think it just makes you seem noisier.

[davesaz]

If you want to emphasize a word without typing it in all caps, there is the option of using the

bold

or

italic

tags. Those will not annoy people as much as all caps.
In the reply window (not quick reply) you even have the option of typing your reply first, then hilight the words to bold and hitting the bold button at the top left.

Other than not posting much, what about xtoxm makes you think he is mafia?

Regarding Almost50, while the general case theory of "mafia being interested in setup due to finding out who to kill" is valid, certain town roles like bodyguard or doctor do need to be able to guess at who has a role in order to know who to protect. Furthermore the techique that Almost50 claims to have been using, "fake claiming a role to get mafia to react", is a valid technique. It is arguable about whether it is a

good

technique, but there is little doubt that it is something that players might do to scumhunt.

Also I will take this opportunity to point out that KT is beetlejuicing here. (If you're not familiar with the term, it means showing up and posting when someone mentions your name)

[KainTepes]

i show up when i want to answer the question that someone wrote for ME...

I WOULD POST ALL THE TIME BUT YOU SAID I WAS NOISY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KainTepes]

I have some posts of xotxm that make me UNCOMFORTABLE... but i must find them FIRST... because I LOST them,,

[KainTepes]

VOTE: Townie247

VOTE: smugder

VOTE: Kuroi

VOTE: MKA

Considering the VC situation.

Eh.

VOTE: Kuroi

5 times already he VOTED WITHOUT REASON... its weird, usually in TOWN OF SALEM the mafia will vote without saying anything because they want to be UNDETECTED...