Micro 583: Kids With Guns (Game Over)

[lovelygiant]

1. We're not lynching BAG this early. Calm yourselves. Looked at several of Aero's games and he seems to intelligent to just throw away. Obviously this goes both ways but, why? Naked votes hiding behind RVS excuses are lazy and sad.

2. VOTE: Kain

Indoor voices, please.

[lovelygiant]

NINOMASAKI IS BILL'S SCUMMATE, JUST LYNCH HER

I somehow doubt you have 1000 games under your belt.

[lovelygiant]

oh, whoops.

/conf

[lovelygiant]

1. We're not lynching BAG this early. Calm yourselves. Looked at several of Aero's games and he seems to intelligent to just throw away. Obviously this goes both ways but, why? Naked votes hiding behind RVS excuses are lazy and sad..

VOTE: lovelygiant

Yup, you caught me hard defending my scummate.

Please, BAG could easily talk themselves out of a lynch and wouldn't need a teammate's defense this early.
Your paranoia is concerning.

[lovelygiant]

I'd rather me be lynched than BAG. Aero's got way more experience than I do, and, if town, would be more useful.

I'll even self-hammer if I'm feeling randy.

Vig, shoot Kain this night phase, if he isn't lynched. Can't stand loud drivel with zero content.

[lovelygiant]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?tit ... em_Lynched
There it is.

Anyway, I guess I'll have to prove I'm town through play then. This game wouldn't be fun without a challenge though.
~wgeurts

Hey, I apparently missed a ton. You people work fast.

Anyway, I try to keep in mind how peoples' playstyles can reflect their roles and an ISO of BAG's early posts screams IC. Obviously wasn't going to force-out them (cough cough) but this post helped to give it away. The vig joke claim was also helpful for speculation. Thus why I would rather me be lynched before BAG (there was no specific game of Aero's that I was referencing, just needed an excuse to say we were NOT lynching them.)

I realize that doesn't clear me at all but I'm still bummed they had to claim, which made my defense pointless lol.

Skimming/catching up shortly, but this thread reads like a damn mess. I'll probably still be wanting to lynch Kain (and could buy them working with Not_Mafia on a team, perhaps)

[lovelygiant]

lovelygiant, suicide bomber or goon?

Goon, suicide bomber is overrated. 6/10.

[lovelygiant]

The one that was swooning over how experienced me and Aero are.
Us being new to this kind of behaviour we are naturally sceptical of our first fanboy/gal.

As you should be. You should have been townread for that, but NotMafia kept poking at you incessantly. Part of my suspicion towards them there.

[lovelygiant]

By the way, we're not really going to be lynch today, so please stop wasting your vote pers. Just because we think you're scum doesn't mean you can mislynch us.

--Aero

Bad play to continue to scum read a claimed PR in an open setup. Thanks for confirming my read.

you're so blind.

[lovelygiant]

Please don't run the game in to the ground, everyone back on scumBAG please, or lonelygiant

Like how can you keep pushing after numerous painfully obvious hints? I can only assume you

wanted

BAG to hardclaim. You're town role hunting.

[lovelygiant]

VOTE: lonelygiant

At least there's no more PRs to out!

goodbye scum

VOTE: Not_Mafia

If I'm vig, I'm shooting Kain.

[lovelygiant]

also, before you lose your marbles, yes, even after someone claims vig it's still smart to put out your "If I'm vig" statements.

[lovelygiant]

Scummy for changing vote right after Nino said she was on my wagon,

I... I don't even understand what you mean.

[lovelygiant]

All I feel so far is that though Maestro looks a bit too... excited for a policy lynch? We have 8 players, so policy lynching is not an option unless you think there is some likeliho that Kain is also scum. Do you think Kain is scum, Maestro?

Still want to hear more from lovelygiant, who is also on the Kain wagon.

If Kain isn't mafia, he more than deserves to eat a lynch. We'll have a less ridiculous day chat. Things will actually progress forward.

If he IS mafia, congrats, we've snagged one. What's not to love?

*this is mostly in jest, but at least he's be the smallest town loss*

The only downside is trying to find meaningful interactions to analyze in his ISO after he flips. Votal analysis would also prove little. That's why I'm no longer voting him, and have switched to our next best crazy, N_M.

[lovelygiant]

Which game exactly of Aero's did you read?

So did you not read the posts I've made on this page?

But, I did read Critically Experimental.

[lovelygiant]

All I feel so far is that though Maestro looks a bit too... excited for a policy lynch? We have 8 players, so policy lynching is not an option unless you think there is some likeliho that Kain is also scum. Do you think Kain is scum, Maestro?

Still want to hear more from lovelygiant, who is also on the Kain wagon.

If Kain isn't mafia, he more than deserves to eat a lynch. We'll have a less ridiculous day chat. Things will actually progress forward.

If he IS mafia, congrats, we've snagged one. What's not to love?

*this is mostly in jest, but at least he's be the smallest town loss*

The only downside is trying to find meaningful interactions to analyze in his ISO after he flips. Votal analysis would also prove little. That's why I'm no longer voting him, and have switched to our next best crazy, N_M.

Ah, that strange moment where my exact words come out of somebody else's mouth except worded worse. Have I finally made it, Ma?

I promise, I felt this way since Kain's first post, thus my early lynch on him, Check my ISO.

I'm not surprised we play similarly. I watched Critically Experimental beginning to end, screaming at Gale internally. Some players make me cross-eyed.

[lovelygiant]

If Kain isn't mafia, he more than deserves to eat a lynch. We'll have a less ridiculous day chat. Things will actually progress forward.

If he IS mafia, congrats, we've snagged one. What's not to love?

As several people have explained, what's not to love is that we just don't have the numbers to indulge in a policy lynch.

While I have you, could you do me a favor? I'm bad at math and love when people post breakdowns of best/worst case population counts, if that makes sense...

like Night 1 - 5 town / 2 mafia if mislynch
Day 2 - 3 town / 2 mafia if vig kills town
etc... how long do we really have if we fuck up?

And I understood that, thus my switch to N_M for finding him scummier, for now.

[lovelygiant]

Furthermore, if policy lynching is discouraged due to risk, how do we guarantee the vig kill is any safer to make? Genuinely wondering.

[lovelygiant]

Furthermore, if policy lynching is discouraged due to risk, how do we guarantee the vig kill is any safer to make? Genuinely wondering.

We don't guarantee it. There are very few

guarantees

in mafia. But, I've asked people to name primary and secondary scum reads. So, the vig shot will basically be an extra lynch. Actually I think we should come to agreement on a pool of 3 - one to lynch today, one to vig tonight, one to lynch tomorrow if it comes to that. My pool is currently Not_Mafia, Maestro, and you.

1. cool, thanks

2. you just love ignoring things, huh? but thanks for the help, bud.

[lovelygiant]

2. you just love ignoring things, huh?

I sometimes get a kick out of ignoring assholes.

And I'm an asshole because....?

[lovelygiant]

And I'm an asshole because....?

Maybe you were bullied as a kid or something...how the hell would I know why you're an asshole?

I don't understand what I said to piss you off.

But thanks, I guess?

[lovelygiant]

Forget it. It's my own fault for expecting any level of maturity on an Internet forum.

At least I'm expanding my list of people to not bother playing with in the future. Ensured happiness for all.

[lovelygiant]

You could sell me a N_M/Maestro scumteam on a silver platter.

Maestro used mostly emotion and little logic to stop the impending wagon on him. He seems like a bright player, so I can't understand why he chose that response.

[lovelygiant]

Okay, Mae is way too defensive. Let's try this.

VOTE: Maestro

[lovelygiant]

That's solid logic. If I was the bomb and that close to being lynched, I would have certainly used my ability.

I'll hang on for a sec. I'd like to hear more before we end Day.

[lovelygiant]

I'm not N_M's scummate.

Also, if he truly IS town, wouldn't excessive trolling like this be considered not playing to his win condition?

Whereas, if he's mafia, this nonsense can at least be passed off as strategy and therefore not breaking any rules?

Just an observation.

[lovelygiant]

or, he was giving me no reason to townread him and he seemed like the best attainable lynch

you decide

"you decide"

wear your WIFOM on your sleeve, I guess.

I'm fine with either a N_M or Maestro lynch toDay.

[lovelygiant]

based on N_M's constant "yup I'm the bomber" and his trolling attitude, I could see him literally being the bomber, with Maestro as the goon, as Mae's near-lynch didn't set a bomb off.

[lovelygiant]

I confirmed my role at the beginning of the game, it must be true

But literally where is the town motive for your entire schtick this game? It quite honestly only benefits you in a scenario where you are mafia.

[lovelygiant]

VOTE: N_M

[lovelygiant]

Actually VOTE: Nino I just remembered they were in the game and read their iso

desperation

pure unadulterated desperation

[lovelygiant]

Yes the famous desperate move of creating an entirely new wagon

actually yes.

[lovelygiant]

I think his theory is on point.

I'm not convinced on the NM-Mae scumteam.

Have you any more likely alternatives? (No is a perfectly acceptable answer, but give some theories anyway. Can't hurt.)

I actually thought I was the hammer on Mae and ended up miscounting. Kind of glad I was wrong as town isn't ready to be sent into twilight just yet. I'd still be satisfied with either N_M/Mae getting lynched. If they're not a team, I would still bet one mafia is in there.

[lovelygiant]

In a world where we are catastrophically wrong and both Mae and N_M are clean:

Persivul
BAG
Maestro
N_M

--

Lovelygiant
KainTepes
NinoM
Xtoxm

I have trouble believing our mafia lie in that second half. I'm town, Nino and Xtoxm have been two of the townies sounding players this game. Kain is inconsequential, and if actually mafia, he'll find a way to out himself on his own.

I just can't live in a realm where the second group contains both of the mafia.

[lovelygiant]

I'm actually digging your theories and didn't catch Kain passing up the potential hammer on Mae. That's noteworthy.

[lovelygiant]

Let's lynch Nino

I'm so done with you, to be quite honest.

[lovelygiant]

I'm also growing weary with the waiting game.

[lovelygiant]

I asked for Pers' "seal of approval" on my best/worst case estimations because I'm overwhelmingly bad at making them. Read into that any further, and it's on you.

That's also the thing I was upset for him completely ignoring and not answering (and subsequently calling me an asshole for? still fuzzy on why things took that turn.)

I chose to eventually pretend it didn't happen, and I assume he did the same. Not sure where the benefit was in bringing it back up. You can't seriously give commentary criticizing the drama that hasn't been mentioned in 150 posts and NOT expect the scab to be picked open?Your intentions don't look good here.

You WERE defensive/emotional in Critically Experimental. I cannot deny that.

I care about players not striving to reach their wincon because it fucking kills the game. Sorry. No point in playing Monopoly when the fourth player is the kind trying to flip the board every turn. You don't need to try and force alignment-prediction onto it. It's something any player should care about, and the spammy bullshit is hardly different from your PL's posting habits. What a weak read, Mae.

I'm glad you understand the earlier half of my posts, but you really forced mountains out of my more recent molehills.

(Did not bother reading your ISOs if anybody else. Will probably do that soon, I'm eating.)

[lovelygiant]

Also, just because this rubs me the wrong way:

You really should stop trying to call out people's posts as "pretentious" when that word singularly defines your tone and playstyle. It's kind of silly.

[lovelygiant]

BUT THEN AT THE SAME TIME, I find myself nodding along with your commentary on Xtoxm. You also catch a lot of nuances that others did not acknowledge.

[lovelygiant]

I'm beginning to think you have a drinking problem. (I'm also a hypocrite in that regard.)

Don't take the pretentious comment to heart. I was salty.

I too would like to see comments on your ISO's now. Mafia or not, it's a lot of content to respond to, and anyone eager to lynch you should bother reading your wall post to confirm/deny suspicions.

[lovelygiant]

UNVOTE:

WHY is everyone voting NOT MAFIA again???

Yeah this is suspicious as all hell. Jumping off the N_M wagon at L-1 and providing no reasoning, instead "playing" dumb. If you don't know why we're voting him, please explain why YOU were voting him.

[lovelygiant]

All of this because I said "confirm mafia suicide bomber"

If you seriously think that's the sole reason to advocate your lynch, you've got some loose screws.

@Persivul, thank you. I know it seems like a lame excuse to say I couldn't have mapped that out myself but I've historically screwed it up in previous games and swayed lynch votes incorrectly because of it, and I don't trust myself to do it anymore. I don't see any holes in yours, though.

@Mod:

I second the substitution of Nino, if we can.

[lovelygiant]

(In hindsight, some of my posts have come off as very prickish. I apologize.)

[lovelygiant]

Given I'm confident N_M is scum, I'm going to look at those three in that context.

A Maestro ISO shows him voting N_M consistently. If N_M is scum, I doubt.... nevermind this just turns into reverse bussing WIFOM.

Sigh. Give me a minute to put real effort into this.

[lovelygiant]

UNVOTE:

No lynching N_M until we get a chance to fucking talk. If we don't have the numbers to mislynch me, we don't have the numbers to misVig me either, especially not if any of you agree that I'm not Scum.

I will have to push back the end of my LA until tomorrow, if I had said otherwise. Today got away from me and it's already 11:30. You can wait 12 hours or less out of 9 and a half days.

Prod received. I've been working on two posts.
First of those is almost done, but just FYI:

VOTE: Not_Mafia
HURT: Xtoxm

I just... the whole commentary he gives on N_M may not be auto-scum, but it's

weird

. And when put in context of continuously rising scrutiny toward N_M, it's hard to see a town train of thought.

[lovelygiant]

EBWOP: Panicked. It reads as very panicked.

In the context of Persivul's earlier timeline:
Scum A: Maestro
Scum B: KainTepes
Scum C: Xtoxm

[lovelygiant]

Let's just say hypothetically in a parallel world I'm town, who is scum?

I bump Kain down in exchange for Xtoxm. Nino would be more heavily scrutinized and considered scum coasting while town spends Day tunneling on town. It wouldn't explain Mae's actions, still, so he'd continue being on my list.

[lovelygiant]

Dude, he just wants to see what you'd say so he can then push the people you find scummiest.

I'm aware. There is still logic to entering D2 prepared for the unlikely scenario of him flipping town.

[lovelygiant]

It goes without saying that anybody rushing to his defense (bar maybe Kain due to his utter unpredictability?) is outing themselves as scum.

Most likely sequence of events in my eyes is that we go for the N_M lynches, he bombs Persivul, we can still lynch and take out Mae/Kain with relative ease, provided town actually shows up. If the game is still going, Mafia will probably vig someone other than BaG due to their inactivity (probably me.) We lynch the remaining out of Kain/Mae D2. I have a strong feeling our game will be solved.

[lovelygiant]

It goes without saying that anybody rushing to his defense (bar maybe Kain due to his utter unpredictability?) is outing themselves as scum.

Most likely sequence of events in my eyes is that we go for the N_M lynch, he bombs Persivul, we can still lynch and take out Mae/Kain with relative ease, provided town actually shows up. If the game is still going, Mafia will probably NK someone other than BaG due to their inactivity (probably me.) We lynch the remaining out of Kain/Mae D2. I have a strong feeling our game will be solved.

EBWOP.

And this requires players actually start playing. We can't save a town that doesn't want to participate.

[lovelygiant]

bless

[lovelygiant]

I'm not scum, though.

I had my heart bet on N_M flipping scum. There was zero town motivation in his posts. If you disagree, feel free to prove me wrong. I refuse to be deemed suspicious for that.

I can understand Mae being town especially after that wall post. Did anybody else bother to read it, by the way?

All I can say is I'm town. I don't want us to lose by wasting this lynch on me. There's six left. A mislynch and mafia kill puts us at 4 on Day 3, and we're boned.

[lovelygiant]

Did my math wrong. 5 left. 3 by Day 3, we auto lose.

I know I'm town. I know BaG is town. This leaves:

Nino
Xtoxm
Kain

I'm going to do some ISO research and look for any connections between the three.

[lovelygiant]

First thing of note is that Xtoxm has taken many more "hard" stances than Kain or Nino. Whereas they both have avoided painting themselves into any corner. X's ISO reads as very town-motivated. Glad I refreshed myself. Still reading.

[lovelygiant]

I actually think Kain is probs Town, just kind of new. I don't think scum trying to act aggressive will shout I AM AGGRESSIVE all over the place; it attracts attention more often than not which isn't what scum wants. Kain is clearly new, judging by his join date, and his actions don't make sense as newbie scum.

More people need to post.

I don't know about Not_Mafia yet but I'm still very inclined to think BAG is town. Maybe my scumhunting skills are not great, but I don't see what the case is on BAG.

I also don't think we should policy lynch Kain unless we think he's at least slightly scummy which I don't right now. There are only 8 of us and we can't afford to policy lynch.

I want to hear more from lovelygiant.

All I feel so far is that though Maestro looks a bit too... excited for a policy lynch? We have 8 players, so policy lynching is not an option unless you think there is some likeliho that Kain is also scum. Do you think Kain is scum, Maestro?

Still want to hear more from lovelygiant, who is also on the Kain wagon.

Alright, so I believe this Maestro wagon is definitely going too fast with that almost-lynch... We have 2 weeks, right? Even if Maestro is scum, we still should try to get as much information as possible before the lynch. If Maestro is not mafia, focusing too much on him would only allow scum to relax and not feel particularly pressured.

I still feel uncomfortable about Maestro's original obsession with lynching Kain, but his explanation later on made sense to me, even though I don't agree with it (we don't have the numbers to allow for a policy lynch, besides I think Kain should be able to learn how to play the game soon). His anger upon being voted for seems slightly town-like to me because I tend to think town is more likely to feel angry about being lynched than scum, who would feel more scared and jittery. We should be careful of tunneling too much, especially on Day 1.

Kain is being really eccentric, but I still believe he is town.

Nino spent a lot of posts trying to prevent a Kain lynch. It's not inherently scummy, but worth noting IMO.

[lovelygiant]

An ISO of Kain shows him condemning Nino frequently, but he has since dropped that angle. That's about all I can make of his posts, and even that is shaky.

Kain, what are your reads?

[lovelygiant]

It's Kain and Lovely and I'm currently willing to bet my cash (if I could) and integrity as a Mafia player right now on this.
VOTE: Lovely
¬wgeurts

I have bad news.

[lovelygiant]

Nino and lovelygiant are scum, we lynch lovelygiant and then we ALL CAN GO HOME!!!

That would leave one scum alive.

[lovelygiant]

I'd be willing to bet on a Nino/Kain scumteam.

VOTE: Nino

Subject to change.

[lovelygiant]

VOTE: NINOMASAKI

Scum distancing with zero explanation, or just terribad town?

Putting Nino at L-1 though.

What's the likelihood of Xtoxm/Nino?

[lovelygiant]

Yeah, no, I'm pretty satisfied with my lynch vote on you. Bossing me around without any reasoning is lame, and I'm not easily intimidated.

The second half of your post reads less as a hypothetical and more as scum preparing to say "I predicted it! AHA!"

Hoping BAG comes in and sees this soon.

[lovelygiant]

What are you doing?? If either of you are town you better take your vote down right

NOW

. Though I doubt it,

because xtoxm didn't quickhammer,

and Bill is confirmed town, so both of you must be scum then.

VOTE: lovelygiant

Bomb me, I dare you. We all already know who you are. I had a townread on Kain before due to his reaction to Bill but now there's really no other way of looking at this.

If Kain actually turns out to be town along and

xtoxm turns out to be just refraining from hammering just to drag this on

I am going to be very angry -_-"

Like, you just WIFOM'd Xtoxm's motive for not hammering, so in any outcome involving his possible lynch, you can clear yourself.

[lovelygiant]

I'd be willing to bet on a Nino/Kain scumteam.

VOTE: Nino

Subject to change.

It's Kain and Lovely and I'm currently willing to bet my cash (if I could) and integrity as a Mafia player right now on this.
VOTE: Lovely
¬wgeurts

I'll accept that cash in cash.

[lovelygiant]

Also, blacklisting Kain until he can at least find his caps lock button.

[lovelygiant]

*GROAN*

Raise your hand if you actually read my fucking post. No? Oh, thanks lovely. You my bae. The rest of you? JFC.

It was a decent post. Through this game I've learned that I default tone read you mafia, and need to not do that in future games, lest I tunnel.

I still swear N_M was actually scum and we've all been lied to.

[lovelygiant]

I really don't understand how people read tones.
I'm always focused on people's behaviour and motivations, and seeing whether the make more sense as scum or town.

What exactly do you look for lovely?

A lot can be conveyed through tone and it can be a useful mechanic as scum, especially in the forum I came from where you know all your competitors very well. Some players have a "tell" of being more/less accusatory, commanding, rude, etc. when scum. Conversely, you may know your fellow players to be easily deceived by confidence, and can use that to your advantage when manipulating them. I've found that many players come off as more cocky when they roll mafia, and that kind of "I know I'm right so don't bother" attitude tends to accompany mafia (on my old forum at least), where 3P roles are usually more aloof and can be spotted through poorly researched reads, general passiveness, etc.

Needless to say, I'm very new here and need to remind myself that I don't know my competitors nearly well enough to paint them with broad tone-reads.

[lovelygiant]

I'm still upset that I saw BaG's IC instantly and let myself go about deterring their lynch/roleclaim how I did.

[lovelygiant]

i KNEW Nino was scum because she kept defending BILL AND GOMPERS like buddying......!!

So did I, and I was town.

[lovelygiant]

I'm still upset that I saw BaG's IC instantly and let myself go about deterring their lynch/roleclaim how I did.

That was the other thing; it's not really your fault, but I was suuuuper suspicious of you saying you had known it was our role all along. But I guess you really did, so congrats!

I wouldn't say you were too subtle about it, but you also weren't given much choice. And I was not subtle in my defense, either. I'm usually really good at spotting town PRs. Mafia, eh, not as much.

[lovelygiant]

Nino, Xtoxm, anything against me releasing the scum PT?

If they say no to its release, they gossiped and I demand the transcript or RIOT.

((kidding. your team played well tbh and the victory was deserved. official gg, you get one.))