Newbie 1691 - Game Over

Eggman · Post Post #700 (ISO) » Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:49 pm

Oh, yes, that is the case.
Strike that read then.

vettrock · Post Post #701 (ISO) » Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:05 pm

VOTE COUNT 1.13

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (0) - ,
mhsmith0 (0) -
shannon (1) - Ircher
Eggman (1) - Radja
Ircher (0) -
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -
Radja (5) - SummerInWonderland, KickAssAndGiggle, shannon, Thor665, YawningAngel ---

LYNCH!

Thor665 (1) - mhsmith0

Not Voting: Eggman

With 9 alive, it's 5 to lynch.

Radja

, a

Vanilla Townie

was lynched Day 1.

Night 1 begins now. Please send me and Jackal711 any night actions. Mafia can post in bold in their PT.

Night 1 deadline is in (expired on 2016-03-25 22:08:18)

Jackal711 · Post Post #702 (ISO) » Fri Mar 25, 2016 6:26 pm

Thor665,

Vanilla Townie

was killed Night 1!

VOTE COUNT 2.0

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (0) -
mhsmith0 (0) -
shannon (0) -
Eggman (0) -
Ircher (0) -
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -

Not Voting: Eggman, shannon, mhsmith0, Ircher, YawningAngel, SummerInWonderland, KickAssAndGiggle

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Friday, April 8th 2016 at 10:30 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-04-08 22:30:00)

mhsmith0 · Post Post #703 (ISO) » Fri Mar 25, 2016 7:30 pm

1) The final reads of confirmed town:

Radja - this was easy

In post 680, Radja wrote:Final reads:

Town

msmith
KAAG
Ircher
Summer
Eggman
YawningAngel
Shannon
Thor

Scum

Thor - this was less easy
Voted Ircher and YawningAngel before voting Radja

wrt Egg:

In post 536, Thor665 wrote:That's kind of asking me to prove the absence of something - but, in short, the way he reacted to the game and pressure feels more like newbie town to me than newbie scum. All I see people dinging him for particularly is being lurky and being new - which, yeah, sure, he is, but I don't see that making him scum particularly.

PS I may have missed something there, some of Thor's stuff was a bit harder to organize.

2) Role Claims:

NO ONE ROLE CLAIM AT THIS TIME.

That includes roles that can explicitly confirm scum (cop and tracker). We may need to get a role claim later in the day, but that should NOT be our urgent priority.
If you're cop/JK and got role-blocked, we don't need to know. If you're cop and got a town result, we don't need to know. If you're JK or tracker and got a null result, we don't need to know. If you're doctor, we REALLY don't need to know.

More interesting: if you got cop and a scum alignment result, or if you're tracker and got a result showing a scum kill, you're going to have to use your judgement on when to share, but if you can drive a correct lynch WITHOUT needing to out, that'd be helpful.

3) Thor's death. That was surprising, both because he flipped VT and because scum chose to NK him instead of trying for an ML, when there was a potential appetite for it, and Radja's last will flagrantly pointed at him.

If someone can find legitimate evidence that Aero/Thor said something to suggest a PR, please point to it (it doesn't matter now). Barring such evidence, that specific NK seems likely to mean... something. It's our job to mull over what that something might be, as well as mine the UTL/Radja/Aero/Thor timelines for useful info. These are two slots that we KNOW are town. They may not be right, but we know they're sincere in the way that we don't know about anyone else on the board.

4) Voting analysis. Definitely not doing that tonight. Likely I'll take a stab at it in the next couple of days, although if someone else prefers I'd appreciate it.

shannon · Post Post #704 (ISO) » Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:09 pm

Woah. Was not expecting Thor to get picked for NK, he must have been on to something.

Super short summary of the Thor/Aero account:

9 Vote UTL/Radja (random vote)
29 Vote KAAG, as his post sounded too perfect/fabricated
63 Vote YA for trying to look busy
65 Reads: (Town) UTL/Radja, KAAG, Ryu/Egg; (Null) Summer, Firelord, Heybox/Ircher; (Scum) Aatami/Green/Shannon, YA
87 Vote Egg/Ryu
346 Vote MSmith
496 (First vote after Thor replaced Aero) vote Eggman
512 Vote YA
515 Egg, YA, Radja wagons are all acceptable
593 Vote Radja

Question:

Thor voted for UTL/Radja, who got lynched. Why would the NK be directed at him? (Was he close to the mark at 515 when he said Egg and YA?)

shannon · Post Post #705 (ISO) » Fri Mar 25, 2016 8:50 pm

In post 656, mhsmith0 wrote:If UTL/Radja is town, I have a very hard time seeing Summer as scum from the interactions there (a scum/scum theater play would have been interesting... but even there I was skeptical). I don't mind seeing some pressure there if people think it's helpful, but I'm going to need to see a really impressive case to have any motivation to hop on. Still my strongest D1 town read.

Yeah I think I have to admit I was totally wrong about Summer, unless she's been doing some really awesome acting. It's only 2PM in my time zone so I'm going back through vote histories and stuff, making notes of who did what. I'm finding it a bit hard to keep track of who replaced who, so I keep having to go back to the front page, is there a better way?

This one stuck out at me as a bit dodgy: Ryu Eggman

Spoiler:

Questions -

1) Are notifications sent (by email or otherwise) if you are lynched or otherwise removed from a game? Shouldn't the absence of same (not to mention, twilight and being able to give reads) been reason to come back *well before* the eventual lynching of UTL/Radja, even if you *think* you have been lynched? It wasn't all that long between the LOL Hammer and Summer picking up that Egg was still L-1.

2) Egg how do you justify the vague answer 'I think you know who I would have voted for?' It's not clear to me at all, since at 697 you had YA as a 'low neutral post-hammer' and Thor as 'slight scum', you've got me Neutral but you don't seem to realise I replaced Greennope ages ago, in the *same post* that Thor was introduced as being the new Aero?

3) How much should we be reading in to Ryu's early weirdness? Is there consensus that it's his lack of social skills, or do we need to examine further?

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #706 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:16 am

Regarding Vote Analysis:

Very straightforward here.

Hammer fell in #614

SIW (1st), post 239 (Hammer - 375)
KAAG (2nd), post 300 (Hammer - 314)
shannon (3rd), post 582 (Hammer - 32)
Thor (4th), post 593 (Hammer - 21)
YA (5th), post 614 (Hammer - 0)

The absolute first thing to do is either decide or (ideally) prove if YA is lying about not understanding the "standard" twilight mechanic. I have played a couple of games on other sites (Conquer Club forum specifically) with fixed deadlines (i.e. only if someone has majority at a certain time does lynch occur). However, A) that's a rare setup and B) this does not seem to be YA's case: he knew it was a hammer, but he seems to suggest he thought twilight would extend all the way to the deadline:

In post 621, YawningAngel wrote:I don't see a problem with Radja posting his final reads and assessments. If he's town, he'll do it anyway as it still plays to his wincon. If he's scum, I highly doubt there's going to be anything valuable in it. We have two days of twilight to discuss matters.

Ircher posted the following:

In post 698, Ircher wrote:
Just noticed this:

When a player is hammered, the game enters twilight. Most mods let you post during twilight; however, you should not count on a long twilight period as twilight ends as soon as the mod is able to get back to the thread. Twilight does NOT extend to the deadline.

However, that is not in the "Game Rules" as posted by our Mod in the first 3 posts, nor is it listed in the "Master Rules" that is linked to from those posts. (If I'm wrong, please correct me: I double-checked but can be dumb). What Ircher posted is an accurate description of the rules, but I don't see it listed here. This is YA's first game on site (checked by looking at his Post History in his profile) so we have no evidence that he knew it from elsewhere.

Unless I have missed this rule stated, I don't see that we can prove it. So it comes down to what we believe. And if we believe he's

lying

, this should be a very quick day: he would be 99% confirmed scum. (Town doesn't lie to town)

My thoughts:

It's such a crazy defence, that it's probably not a lie. There's obviously some WIFOM here, but on balance of probabilities, that's my opinion.

I am very interested in hearing the opinion of mhsmith0 and SIW. (Because those 2 were my top town reads on D1): if they both disagree, I will certainly think again.

However, if he's telling the truth, he could still be scum: it means he didn't realise just how suspicious it would look.

(Posting now because I don't want to make this too big of a wall, I have more to add later. Please give opinions on YA's truthfulness in meantime)

Eggman · Post Post #707 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:26 am

Oh, I thought that would have been very obvious.
If I had to choose lynching myself or Radja, I probably would not vote myself.

shannon · Post Post #708 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:43 am

In post 707, Eggman wrote:Oh, I thought that would have been very obvious.
If I had to choose lynching myself or Radja, I probably would not vote myself.

But who would you have voted for? It could have been any of us, and just because there was a wagon on Radja was no reason not to put up another candidate if you thought there was a better one.

ISO · Post Post #709 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 3:56 am

In post 702, Jackal711 wrote:Thor665,
Vanilla Townie
was killed Night 1!

VOTE COUNT 2.0

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (0) -
mhsmith0 (0) -
shannon (0) -
Eggman (0) -
Ircher (0) -
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -

Not Voting: Eggman, shannon, mhsmith0, Ircher, YawningAngel, SummerInWonderland, KickAssAndGiggle

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Friday, April 8th 2016 at 10:30 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-04-08 22:30:00)

Wifom?

It was very likely Thor was going to be today's lynch -- why kill him?

ISO · Post Post #710 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 4:07 am

VOTE: KAAG

Let's start here:

What's your thoughts in terms of the kills?

Why do you think Thor was NK'd and what is your opinion of Radja's final readlist?

(A warning to town: While Too Townie to be Town is a fallacious argument, one must also know that it is quite possible for scum to become the "town leaders". KAAG seems like a skilled player, and while there's no evidence to back up that's the case here, it's something to be cautious of.)

YawningAngel · Post Post #711 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 4:15 am

@shannon if I were scum with Eggman I wouldn't have put so much effort into trying to get him lynched. Thor would also have been my best shot at a mislynch today. A scum team of me/Eggman would be in real trouble at this point, as there are strong arguments for policy lynching both of us.

My guess is that scum liked the fact the game had a lot of inactivity and thought that Thor's style and aggression were likely to crack the game open. The obvious implication from this is that the status quo (I.E. who we suspect and are likely to lynch in the immediate future) suits the scum pretty well. I'll write an analysis of who I think merits investigation in this light later today, as I'm on mobile at the moment.

I'm not going to discuss the hammer as it feels done to death at this point, but if anyone has more questions I'm happy to address them

ISO · Post Post #712 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 4:41 am

@YA

You do know what bussing is, right?

mhsmith0 · Post Post #713 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 4:53 am

@ya: exactly how hard did you think you were trying to get egg lynched? Do you think your efforts were greater than other people on that wagon? Why or why not?

YawningAngel · Post Post #714 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:20 am

In post 712, Ircher wrote:@YA

You do know what bussing is, right?

I know. However: 1) bussing is now so well known that much of its value is gone 2) is a massive loss to the scum team even when it is a good idea and 3) is done to gain town cred. I don't think I'm gonna have much town cred even if I hammer Eggman today and he flips scum. Bussing day1 with two scum seems needless and Bussing now for the hypothetical YA/Egg team seems a bit much.

@mhsmith I tried pretty hard. I was on the case of non posters once I started posting substantively and I tunneled Eggman since post 282. I believe I was the first person to vote him and I stayed the course throughout day one. So yeah, I tried pretty hard and I'd be making the case for him today if I had a shred of credibility for advocating policy lynches

shannon · Post Post #715 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:25 am

One thing I've got flagged to follow up is @Msmith's post 125 that "If there's a two-veteran (vet loosely defined as IC/SE) scum team, I feel like we're going to have a much harder time finding scum slips". The two we've got left are KAAG and Ircher, neither of whom have really been proposed as candidates for mafia.

Ircher

Spoiler:

KAAG

Spoiler:

TL;DR (but it wont make sense if you DR):

Obviously I know I'm town, and I think Ircher is, so I want you to consider whether there's a scenario in which it makes sense for any of us (me+ YA, me+ Ircher, YA + Ircher) to be a scum team. I would argue that there's no case to be found, I think we should look at whether KAAG is scum himself.

I think KAAG is a skilful enough player to buddy someone obv-town without us noticing, and it's possible he's done that with Summer. I think his decision to make an authoritative sounding post attributing YA's hammer to a mistake could be a way of getting us to direct the next lynch to a target he considers harder. *And* I think that his taking control of the scum hunt now is a good way for him to direct it, if he himself is scum.

VOTE: KAAG

shannon · Post Post #716 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:28 am

Just so it counts, realised I forgot the formatting.

VOTE: KAAG

YawningAngel · Post Post #717 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:40 am

Who is KAAG's likely partner in this hypothetical

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #718 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:50 am

(I'm halfway through a wall post on the voting analysis, because my first attempt got sidetracked into discussing the hammer. But Ircher raises some points I'll respond to first.)

In post 710, Ircher wrote:VOTE: KAAG

Let's start here:

What's your thoughts in terms of the kills?

Radja's lynch was highly unfortunate, but I am not going to pretend that I don't stand by the analysis I made on D1. I cannot get my head around UpTooLate's play in the last dozen posts she made as she was a towny.

If you look at my read lists as they shift through D1, I had her at fence-town for quite a while, but then she imploded. Radja just didn't do enough to fix it for me.

Now the Thor NK is interesting. There are generic possibilities:

- Thor has 28,000 posts (ish) on this forum. In Mafia, experience is no

guarantee

of skill but there is obvious correlation. Any scum team might have considered him a threat. I don't necessarily buy your "he was very likely going to be today's lynch" argument myself: a dead towny's reads should be respected but I'd have needed to see a lot more scumminess to join the wagon. Let's say I was NK'd instead, or mhsmith0, and you guys HAD lynched Thor (mislynched), you'd be taking Eggman into LYLO, which is worrisome as he barely makes any reads. So I'd have been super cautious myself.

- Thor was scum-hunting without complacency, and openly admitted to not having read the early days. Any town-cred built up was irrelevant to him, meaning mhsmith0, SIW and KAAG (me!) could all have a motive as we were, I suggest, widely town-read. A good scum-hunter gets better as the game goes on as the % of players who are scum left in the game goes up.

- Thor shook up a quiet, lurky game. Inaction benefits scum more than town, and he was making action.

And there are non-generic possibilities. Thor leant scum on you (Ircher) and YA. But you were his preferred lynch:

In post 593, Thor665 wrote:

In post 590, Ircher wrote:I've read the Utl case and it primarily consists of SJW/Utl, but there is evid. of Conf. Bias in the case, which weakens it s value. I prefer an Egg lynch, or even possubly a Thor lynch.

You're currently voting Shannon.

Are you scum forgetting your fake pushes, or are you trying to compromise off Shannon for some reason?

In post 593, Thor665 wrote:

Unvote: Yawning Angel
Vote: Radja

Also still good with an Ircher lynch.

In post 598, Thor665 wrote:
In post 595, SummerInWonderland wrote:hey thor!
I am just wondering why are you voting Radja now?
I put my case out there for you a while ago and KAGG did a bit after that too.
You were questioning others throughout that.
so yea basically why now?

I am voting Radja because I don't scumread Yawning Angels as much and, for some weird reason, there is zero support for the idea of lynching Ircher.

Hopefully it will become clearer which reason is more likely as the day continues.

...

what is your opinion of Radja's final readlist?

Well...it's wrong at the very bottom, we know that now. I was surprised to see you above SIW, more because of how towny I perceived her to be than anything on you. I'm also somewhat surprised at the position of Eggman, because as you'll see when I finish my Vote Count Wall (tm)

, he was Radja's top scum pick for a good old while.

If we were looking to start investigating based on the deceased town reads, I'd say we look at:

{YA, Ircher, Shannon, Eggman, SIW}

(In no particular order)

I suspect you will protest, but one issue we have is that Thor did not really provide town reads (which is why mhsmith0 that I feel they are at least as important as scum reads). I think he leant briefly town on shannon in one post and that was it. So the only town reads we have are Radja's.

...

(A warning to town: While Too Townie to be Town is a fallacious argument, one must also know that it is quite possible for scum to become the "town leaders". KAAG seems like a skilled player, and while there's no evidence to back up that's the case here, it's something to be cautious of.)

No argument with the fact at face-value: I've seen people do exactly this. But it is pure WIFOM: if I AM town and I AM skilled (I offer no opinion on that!) then it is in town's best interest. If I AM scum, it wouldn't be, of course. But the act of me doing so tells you nothing.

...

PEDIT

Yes, shannon, you should definitely look at me. However there are some things that I think you do slightly misrepresent:

When I asked how we made such a big mistake he deflected blame by saying 'you joined willingly too', which I thought was weird. Yes, I joined willingly, but I think an appropriate answer would have been that factors A, B, and C convinced him, and a towny thing to do would be to push the rest of us for explanations too.

I presented an 8 point list in the thread, going into full reasoning on my decision. I did not re-post it when replying to you, but it's easy to find: post 565.

I took a look at KAAG's ISO and since 430 it's been a little light on scum hunting. There are lots of posts about game mechanics, and about how he would see other people if certain things happened, or rehashing old stuff (c.f. 448, 565). He has been committed to the Radja vote for ages but I can't see meaningful attempts to find the second scum. Then it's KAAG who in 682 decides to take control of the next scum hunt by saying he will look at Radja's votes in order. Radja's scummiest vote is for Thor, who gets NKed.

Trying to find associates without a flip is a hard and dangerous game. Regarding Radja...I had that sinking feeling he was going to flip town, and dead townies want their reads taken account of. I'm sure you will in this game and any futures games too. I am happy to follow the lead of someone who makes a good case on somebody, I don't have to lead. All you get is grief when you're wrong!!!

KAAG has asked Summer and MH for their reads (706), because he says they're the strongest towns. If this is correct, it means the townies according to KAAG are himself, Summer, MH, Radja (proven VT), Thor (proven VT), Egg (claimed VT) and the scum are some combination of myself, YA, Ircher.

Not Eggman, no. His claim is Null to me. As above, neither Radja nor Thor seemed as blown away by town!SIW as me, so I'm prepared to re-look. Only myself and mhsmith0 are in my personal "clear as glass" category. YMMV.

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #719 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:07 am

Sorry shannon, I missed something (in your Ircher spoiler) and it's important:

Thor has never expressed a belief in Ircher as scum (in fact Thor's choices were all popular targets, Radja, Egg, YA), so I'm finding it difficult to believe that Ircher had motivation to NK Thor. Ircher I think is townish.

This is completely the opposite of the truth, isn't it? I quoted the relevant portions above.

shannon · Post Post #720 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:08 am

In post 717, YawningAngel wrote:Who is KAAG's likely partner in this hypothetical

I guess one of the quiet newbies, *or* someone like MHSmith. But it's only a guess, no real foundation except that Summer doesn't seem right as a partner.

shannon · Post Post #721 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:13 am

In post 541, Thor665 wrote:
In post 538, Ircher wrote:YOU ARE AN IDIOT!!

I want a new IC who won't lolhammer people!

Would you like to fake any other emotions as long as I'm here?
Ircher is now also an acceptable lynch in my mind.

@KAAG is this the post you mean? I think Thor is joking here when he names Ircher, or at least, it's a response to him being frustrated with the 'idiot' comment.

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #722 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:16 am

I missed that one! But, no, I don't think he's joking: I can't even understand how you think that? Read the exchange between them from that post on: there's no hint of joke in it!

There are 3 quotes from Thor in my post 718. I feel they are very clear that his preferred lynch is Ircher.

shannon · Post Post #723 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:24 am

In post 722, KickAssAndGiggle wrote:I missed that one! But, no, I don't think he's joking: I can't even understand how you think that? Read the exchange between them from that post on: there's no hint of joke in it!

There are 3 quotes from Thor in my post 718. I feel they are very clear that his preferred lynch is Ircher.

He says 'for some weird reason there is 0 support for Ircher', and says he'd still support an Ircher lynch, but he votes for Radja. I read Thor as wanting to get back at Ircher for being called an idiot, not to actually lynch him. Ircher didn't seem to be on the radar before that comment.

KickAssAndGiggle · Post Post #724 (ISO) » Sat Mar 26, 2016 6:28 am

Post 547

In post 547, Thor665 wrote:
In post 544, Ircher wrote:It was genuine; I forgot Shannon was on the wagon & switched votes.

And, in your blinding rage that obligated you to immediately call me an idiot - you had no need to, y'know, clarify you were wrong once it was pointed out that it wasn't a hammer?

Nah man, that looks super fake - or weirdly rude.
I'm taking it as fake.
Why do you think it should read as honest? You don't think that looks weird on your part?

Post 552

In post 552, Thor665 wrote:

In post 548, YawningAngel wrote:What are your reads and why?

You scum, for reasons stated.
Ircher, scum, for reasons stated.
Egg town, for reasons stated.
Shannon, slight town, for reasons stated.

When it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...it's a duck. Thor scum read Ircher. I'm now really quite suspicious of you. Radja was too.

FOS: shannon