Newbie 1691 - Game Over

[KickAssAndGiggle]

YA,

@KAAG I don't think obv!town is a thing. So long as you can engineer a mislynch, doing all this stuff you identify as "towny" is fine for scum. You don't need a buddy if people think you're obv!town, you can safely own your mistakes if that gets you town cred, etc. None of these things win the town the game, they're just conducive to it if everybody does them. But looking like you're doing them as scum is fine too.

This is like deja vu: I've had this conversation with mhsmith0 already.

The best strategy for Town is to identify a town-bloc, that all agree the others are town. Now, admittedly, in a 9-player game, this is harder than say in a 21 person game, because the bloc has to form quite rapidly. It is better for the bloc to form slowly and organically, but there is not the time for that with just 9 slots.

So far as I'm concerned, the only salient information comes from concrete actions. Everything else is potentially just theatre.

So you say our chances of finding scum on D1 (unless they miserably slip up) is no better than rolling a 9-sided dice? I disagree: I know it didn't come off this game, but in 2 of my last 3 completed games, I had at least one scum pegged on D1. How can that be if only concrete actions matter?

The fact of the matter is that there was a mislynch yesterday, and who was and wasn't on the wagon should be what determines one's reads. Notably,

the Eggman wagon was stopped

. So far as I'm concerned, Eggman is scummy as hell and his buddy probably had to pull out all the stops to get Radja lynched instead yesterday.

Nope, what happened is both SIW and KAAG (me) read UTL as scum from an early stage. I would say it was Thor who stopped the wagon, and then KAAG (mainly) drove the wagon on UTL/Radja. KAAG drove the wagon because he was confident in his read. Now, from YOUR point-of-view, that makes ME Eggman's scum buddy, but as I know my PM has a green-font, I know your theory is incorrect.

I know I'm not his scumbuddy and I know Thor wasn't his scumbuddy, so that leaves you, SIW and shannon. I'm equivocal about which one of you three is responsible, but the fact remains we were taken off Eggman and into a mislynch and I think one of the scum was on the mislynch.

OK, so following your logic: Ircher AND mhsmith0 are basically clear to you? You're sure on Eggman, but you think scum was on the wagon: hence Ircher + mhsmith0 are towny. You have a town-bloc!

Have you considered the possibility that NEITHER scum was on the wagon? There was (and always is on D1) at least three town on the wagon. One of the best scum players I've ever seen says "just let town rip itself apart". I've seen with my own two eyes lynches with all-town on them. Have you not?

If you're town, you should see what I'm seeing and believe that one of shannon and SIW is Eggman's scumbuddy. That's what I think the reads position should be. Happily, we don't need to decide which of you, SIW and shannon to lynch toady because Eggman the scummy scummer is still alive.

I refer you to the possibility that no scum was on the wagon. I also refer you to your hammer, which is still up for debate as far as I'm concerned!

VOTE: Eggman

thinking about the fact that he was at L-1 with hammer intent and was somehow saved despite no substantive contribution makes me even surer of his scuminness that I already was.

Is there anything to this case, other than his inactivity (which is sucky but not necessarily scummy) and that he survived D1?

PEdit: if there's something in shannon's post to respond to, I'll do so in my next post.

[YawningAngel]

@shannon I don't believe that we're confused over vote counts. What we need now is analysis. Can you give some thoughts on post 769 by me?

[YawningAngel]

This is like deja vu: I've had this conversation with mhsmith0 already.

The best strategy for Town is to identify a town-bloc, that all agree the others are town. Now, admittedly, in a 9-player game, this is harder than say in a 21 person game, because the bloc has to form quite rapidly. It is better for the bloc to form slowly and organically, but there is not the time for that with just 9 slots.

I categorically disagree. The best strategy is to accept that anyone is potentially scum and figure out how likely you think that is to be the case for a given person. Some actions (e.g. successfully finding two scum in larger games) make you very likely to be town, but nothing short of being confirmed town by a flipped cop is truly exculpatory. By all means trust SIW and mhsmith more and give their opinions more weight (I do!), but don't ignore the possibility that they're just playing scum very well, especially if later events suggest that. Similarly, don't wholly discount anyone's views, just trust probable scum less.

So you say our chances of finding scum on D1 (unless they miserably slip up) is no better than rolling a 9-sided dice? I disagree: I know it didn't come off this game, but in 2 of my last 3 completed games, I had at least one scum pegged on D1. How can that be if only concrete actions matter?

Good luck or bad scum play. The only facts are votes, PR outcomes, and NKs. People who incriminate themselves in other ways are just smurfing up. I accept that human beings are pretty flawed liars and scum might smurf up often, but the fact remains that in an ideal (or rather, perfectly-playing) world scum should give no indicators towards their scuminness save a minimal implication in mislynches (hence my interest in Day 1's wagons).

Nope, what happened is both SIW and KAAG (me) read UTL as scum from an early stage. I would say it was Thor who stopped the wagon, and then KAAG (mainly) drove the wagon on UTL/Radja. KAAG drove the wagon because he was confident in his read. Now, from YOUR point-of-view, that makes ME Eggman's scum buddy, but as I know my PM has a green-font, I know your theory is incorrect.

Well, sure. I don't have perfect knowledge about alignments and I peg the odds that you do at about one-in-three. I favour killing off Eggman, who I

am

sure about, today, and then once we have that information we can try and finger his buddy ( ))))))) ) on Day 3. I don't think we need to jump the gun on the very unclear matter of who the second scum is when we have a turkey shoot in front of us.

I refer you to the possibility that no scum was on the wagon. I also refer you to your hammer, which is still up for debate as far as I'm concerned!

My hammer is indeed questionable, but as you've pointed out there ain't shit I can say. You can of course suspect me deeply and treat my views as very low-value information, which might well be the correct play. Obviously, I would prefer that you don't.

If Eggman flips town then I think it's highly probable no scum were on the wagon (why bother and implicate themselves?) but I am very confident (P >= 0.8) that he's scum so I haven't worried about this much. If (when) he flips scum I'm going to assume that his partner made the highest expected-value play and tried to keep him in the game. Obviously my implicit assumption that scum will play towards their win-con at all points is prone to subversion, but it suits me fine if I can engineer scum into doing this. Other, more suspicious, townies will probably call me out if I err too far by assuming this in any case. For now, I think the Eggman case and then the KAAG/SIW/shannon case following it are compelling.

Is there anything to this case, other than his inactivity (which is sucky but not necessarily scummy) and that he survived D1?

No, I think he's just so worthless as a player and looked so likely to cop a lynch yesterday that I find it utterly implausible that he's survived without someone going to bat for him. You pushed Radja pretty hard, so my starting point is you, but I don't think you're much more likely than SIW or shannon to be his benefactor (let's say P ~ 0.4 for you and P ~ 0.3 for the other two).

[KickAssAndGiggle]

I categorically disagree. The best strategy is to accept that anyone is potentially scum and figure out how likely you think that is to be the case for a given person. Some actions (e.g. successfully finding two scum in larger games) make you very likely to be town, but nothing short of being confirmed town by a flipped cop is truly exculpatory. By all means trust SIW and mhsmith more and give their opinions more weight (I do!), but don't ignore the possibility that they're just playing scum very well, especially if later events suggest that. Similarly, don't wholly discount anyone's views, just trust probable scum less.

That's exactly what obv!town and fence!town means...it's not as if I'll have a heart-attack if I'm wrong but you have to narrow it down!

If you will never give someone a strong town-read, you're going to spend a lot of time investigating people for no reason. Of course...on D1 you pretty much tunneled Eggman, until you hammered Radja. So maybe you won't...but you should if you want a "better than 50-50" win rate!

Good luck or bad scum play. The only facts are votes, PR outcomes, and NKs. People who incriminate themselves in other ways are just smurfing up. I accept that human beings are pretty flawed liars and scum might smurf up often, but the fact remains that in an ideal (or rather, perfectly-playing) world scum should give no indicators towards their scuminness save a minimal implication in mislynches (hence my interest in Day 1's wagons).

Noooo. NOOOOOOOOO. You think I just got lucky in Newbie 1675 when I had both scum nailed on D1? Sir...I reject this out-of-hand!

(Seriously...I think almost no serious player would agree you're right here)

My hammer is indeed questionable, but as you've pointed out there ain't shit I can say. You can of course suspect me deeply and treat my views as very low-value information, which might well be the correct play. Obviously, I would prefer that you don't.

I am reserving my right to wait on this situation until later in D2.

If Eggman flips town then I think it's highly probable no scum were on the wagon (why bother and implicate themselves?) but I am very confident (P >= 0.8) that he's scum so I haven't worried about this much. If (when) he flips scum I'm going to assume that his partner made the highest expected-value play and tried to keep him in the game. Obviously my implicit assumption that scum will play towards their win-con at all points is prone to subversion, but it suits me fine if I can engineer scum into doing this. Other, more suspicious, townies will probably call me out if I err too far by assuming this in any case. For now, I think the Eggman case and then the KAAG/SIW/shannon case following it are compelling.

1) You are fine with assuming scum will play to their win-condition: it's a site rule that they do.
2) The Eggman case is, as mhsmith0 says, no better than "policy lynch" level right now.

(Having said that...having town!Eggman in LYLO would be a real problem, UNLESS he comes in and starts contributing...)

No, I think he's just so worthless as a player and looked so likely to cop a lynch yesterday that I find it utterly implausible that he's survived without someone going to bat for him. You pushed Radja pretty hard, so my starting point is you, but I don't think you're much more likely than SIW or shannon to be his benefactor (let's say P ~ 0.4 for you and P ~ 0.3 for the other two).

If we were to lynch Eggman (who was the "easy" lynch D1 and you have pushed on D1 AND started pushing on D2), and he flips town, I will come to understand why UTL said "lynch YA with fire"!

At the moment I am inclined to vote between Yawning Angel and Eggman. I will hold off for now, in the hope that Eggman comes in and towns up the place.

...

Ircher is my "wildcard suspect"

Ircher

Eggman or Yawning Angel? Not asking you to narrow your lynches to just two, but if I had a gun to your head, which would you pick?

[shannon]

So I got curious and decided to dig into Thor's takes on Shannon:

496: In other news I mildly townread Shannon unless Egg flips scum, then I'll mildly scumread her.
... various back and forth...
552: Shannon, slight town, for reasons stated.
555: In response to Ircher voting Shannon for Thor's town read: "That makes no sense on multiple levels."
... more back and forth...


What's weird here is, I don't actually see the "reasons stated" for a slight town read. He doesn't go as hard at her as he does Ircher/YA (the scum reads there are obvious, reflected by the votes as well). I see the scum read on Ircher/YA, I sort of see the town read on Egg (not fully laid out, but he repeats the town read, so that does seem genuine)... but I'm not really seeing WHY he is town reading Shannon. Like, at all.

So would a Shannon/x scum team think it might make sense to kill off Thor (Radja's top scum read) to de-legitimize the entire list, and then use Thor as conf!town to suggest that Shannon was in better shape than people thought? Plausibly.

I'm not going to vote on that theory just yet, but I need to look at that slot's postings a LOT more carefully. And if anyone wants to counter me by arguing that Thor's "slight town read" of Shannon was GENUINE, please point me to what I missed. Because in most of his responses to her, he doesn't seem all that impressed or pleased with her responses. And the "scum team wanted to sponge off a seeming Thor town read of Shannon" theory, while somewhat WIFOM, does seem plausible.


PS I'm still curious if anyone thought there were legitimate PR slips by Aero/Thor. If so I don't know that I need to pay anywhere near this level of attention to what the kill of that slot might have really meant. But since it is the ONLY piece of information we have that we KNOW came from scum, I think it's useful info for us to consider.

PPS @KAAG: I was also thinking a fuller vote analysis, not just who was on the final wagon. It's unfortunate that this site apparently doesn't have that as some kind of automatic feature.

^^Well, there's one thing we agree on, I have absolutely no idea why Thor read me town. I was certain that all his enquries and frustrations were going to result in him leading a lynch on me.

[YawningAngel]

That's exactly what obv!town and fence!town means...it's not as if I'll have a heart-attack if I'm wrong but you have to narrow it down!

If you will never give someone a strong town-read, you're going to spend a lot of time investigating people for no reason. Of course...on D1 you pretty much tunneled Eggman, until you hammered Radja. So maybe you won't...but you should if you want a "better than 50-50" win rate!

I can suspect people but not bother to lynch them. I'm going to try and get the scummiest person I can lynched, even if I think I'm only right with P = 0.4 or something equally weak. I can focus my resources without necessarily trusting the people I don't focus on. I very much believe that scum will out themselves and make mistakes, so I'm happy to focus on the suspicious people and see how everyone else shakes out. I suspect I'll prove to be a little above-average at winning games, but everyone thinks that so that's not really evidential. We'll see after a sufficiently large sample of games (say, 50 or so) how good my philosophy of the game is, but I find it compelling for the moment.

Noooo. NOOOOOOOOO. You think I just got lucky in Newbie 1675 when I had both scum nailed on D1? Sir...I reject this out-of-hand!

(Seriously...I think almost no serious player would agree you're right here)

I mean, it's possible that the scum screwed up really badly. I'm not saying you won't be able to find scum from slips, merely that if the scum play well there should be no slips for you to find. Obviously, the scum won't necessarily play well. However, I can't see any scum slips and I don't think I'm particularly good at spotting them in general so I'm not going to expect much from them in this game.

1) You are fine with assuming scum will play to their win-condition: it's a site rule that they do.
2) The Eggman case is, as mhsmith0 says, no better than "policy lynch" level right now.

1) You misunderstand. I don't mean I'm assuming that scum won't throw, I mean I'm assuming that scum won't generally do things that don't directly advance their wincon in order to gain towncred. Bussing, for example, is not against the site rules but does not directly advance the scum's wincon.

2) I value policy lynches very highly. Those policies being very good ideas is why they are policies to begin with.

If we were to lynch Eggman (who was the "easy" lynch D1 and you have pushed on D1 AND started pushing on D2), and he flips town, I will come to understand why UTL said "lynch YA with fire"!

You're misrepresenting my position. I've quite consistently said I'm willing to lynch multiple people, it's just that right now my only leads are Eggman and his possible accomplices (I mean, I hammered Radja yesterday for Christ's sake). I'm happy to consider lynching you, SIW, or shannon if I can't get an Eggman lynch, but I don't think those cases are nearly as compelling (or, frankly, as likely to succeed). I see little reason to waste my effort trying to push non-preferred lynches when I can very feasibly get what I want.

As for whether me being wrong is scummy - sure. If I very dogmatically advocate for weak lynches, you should probably conclude I'm scum. Do you think I'm doing that? Because I think the cases I've advanced are pretty good ones. Moreover, why is me sticking to my guns suspicious to you?

[shannon]

OK, regarding the mislynch.

Ircher stayed on me and didn't move. That is either a sign that he's scum and comfortable with the mis-lynch, or he's town and honestly didn't think Radja was scum. At this point I can't tell but I lean towards towniness.

MHSmith made it abundantly clear that no one should insta-lynch, and he didn't vote for Radja. Either he's regular old town, or he's scum and playing clever games with YA. I want to say town but again, can't be sure.

KAAG and Summer had been on UTL/Radja for ages. It doesn't read as suss to me. But I am open to the idea that they're a team and KAAG is coaching Summer in towniness. Or, that the more-experienced KAAG has done such a good job of faking town that Summer trusts him, and he relies on this trust. But the simplest explanation is that they're both town.

Egg's absence and sudden return reads as suspicious to me, moreso than any of the other actions in that slot.

Of the three votes that were on Egg at 1.9, we have YA, Radja, and Green(my slot).

Radja is confirmed town, and wanted Egg.

My own vote changed from Egg (where Green... left it) to Summer based on Summer+UTL/Radja convo, and once I became convinced that Summer was OK, I moved to Radja. This was over a long time and I'm pretty sure I was transparent about my actions.

Thor's confirmed town vote went from Smith (which was Aero's vote), to YA, to Radja,

YA had been on Egg for quite a while, and then went to Radja when he said an Egg lynch looked unlikely.


Based on this I have to lean scum on YA. First, because of the quick hammer. Second, because Thor was NKed, and Thor's vote had previously been on YA.
I also lean scum on Egg, just for the sheer shoddy timing of his reappearance.
But these two don't make sense to me as a team. I am not sure where to go.

[YawningAngel]

Kill off Egg and decide on me tomorrow when you have more information. What's not to like?

[shannon]

YA are you taking the piss? Or is that serious?

[YawningAngel]

Deadly serious

[Ircher]

@KAAG
Egg, definitely.

A slot that gets replaced several times in a newbie game btw should be suspicious.

[Ircher]

Ugh. The whole dumping language in the middle of quotes without being explicit on who is saying what is super annoying. Anyway...
1) Ircher on Egg in his vote:

Egg (-90%) - This slot has not been useful at all. I've seen zero scumhunting here and I don't understand why people are townreading this slot.

2) Shannon on Ircher:

I think Ircher may have used the deadline and lurk as an excuse, in the absence of any substantive reason, to join the bandwagon and bus Egg. I don't see why a townie would vote for someone inoffensive but useless when they could be trying to use the last of our time to vote for someone who is actually mafia. And Ircher doesn't say that Egg is mafia, only that he's failing to participate.

...
1) If you are both scum, the opportunity is for you to look not-scum by hammering someone that was already being voted down. And, you knew (and a lot of us didn't seem to realise) he wouldn't actually be lynched from it. The method of doing it (I don't care, I'm hammering now!) also made people second-guess their Egg votes. So when SiW reminded us that the wagon was one vote short, instead of someone adding to it (as they otherwise might have), people changed their minds because you had made the Egg vote look reckless. (Note: I think the Egg vote *was* reckless, but that's beside the point). I can't clearly tell whether you did this from a pro-town angle (Save Egg! Find the real killers!) or whether you did it from a pro-Mafia point. (Save Egg! Find a real townie! Or at least, make myself look Townie if this wagon keeps on rolling).
2) Yes, I'd still look at Ircher for scum if Eggman is scum. Ircher may have known, as you did, that his vote was actually L-2 not L-1, aka not dangerous. It also gave him a way to stay with the town (vote Egg), while not having to say anything that would make people look too closely at him. If you don't offer a substantive opinion, no one can offer substantive criticism.
...

3) My take: Ircher technically didn't SAY that Egg was scum, but it was implied by the 90% scum odds. OTOH, Ircher didn't actually come up with specific scummy behavior, only identifying the slot as "not been useful at all" with "zero scumhunting".
Frankly, that's policy lynch territory. Uselessness may be scum-indicative, but it's FAR from scum-confirming. So when Shannon reads you as not calling Egg actual scum... I think that's an over-statement and/or lazy read, but I'm struggling to see it as an actual distortion.
As far as her #2 above, I would think that scum trying to use distortions to smear someone to get them lynched would be a LOT more careful than being lazy on easily refuted factual statements. Heck, as you say yourself "You need to stop skimming". So no, I'm not buying that story as a vote-worthy distortion.

4) wrt 539, shannon had basically said (poorly) that you were weakly justifying your position based on policy reasons rather than really doing much reading of the slot. Which... she has a point.

5) So when I ask you:

How strongly did you think Egg was scum?

you answer:

Pretty strongly, but after Thor's ahem lolhammer, I no longer saw it as a lynch that would "occur"

The question remains: did you think Egg was scum? If yes, why move your vote away from a plausible lynch? If no, why not either move your vote to a more plausible lynch or make an active effort to get shannon lynched? Your vote move here just seems weird, and I'm really struggling to see how it was a sincere effort to actually get anyone lynched OR a sincere effort to take a stand against the existing wagons.

Instead it seems more like you wanted off the Egg wagon for whatever reason, but at the same time didn't want to be on the Radja wagon OR to be actively lobbying for a lynch of shannon. Which makes me want to know what you WERE trying to accomplish EOD1.

PS @SIW: We're not doing terribly. Obviously getting the right lynch would have been awesome, but failing that, not losing any PR's means that we have a better chance to get something useful out of N2. And it's ENTIRELY possible that we got a useful PR result last night (cop investigation or tracker investigation), and that whoever got that result is slow-playing it (AS THEY SHOULD BE). Losing a town SE/IC does suck, though. But just think of it as a challenge!

3. Ok, true. But, the Egg hasn't been helpful all game, and it was definitely better than lynching YA and I have expressed several times why I disliked the Radja wagon. PoE is a powerful tool and that's basically how some of my reads form. You're right -- I will conclude and concede that I was exaggerating when I stated it was a misrep.

4. It's hard to lynch someone who doesn't do much. Look in all my completed games except the micro - one of the lurkers were scum.

5. Or, how about 1) The Egg lynch basically died cuz of Thor 2) Deadline was quickly approaching and I didn't have a lot to say about Shannon that would make a good case 3) I was 99% certain Radja/Utl was town. So, basically, I wouldn't conclude anything except I absolutely did not support the Radja wagon. Yes, I saw him as scum. But no, I no longer saw him as D1 lynch because of Thor's fake hammer.

[Eggman]

Hello, I am back again! And probably won't pop up again 'till several hours/pages have passed.
First off, who was on the Radja lynch? SiW, KAAG, Shannon, Thor, YA.
After reviewing Shannon's posts, I don't see anything super obviously scummy. I'm leaning town on her.

Eggman's Read List: Thor Was Nightkilled, Oh No Edition

Strong Town: Smith, KAAG, Me

Weak Town: SiW, Shannon, Ircher

Low Neutral: YA

If we had to lynch someone today, I would vote YA, Ircher, or SiW. While Shannon is ranked lower in my mind, she puts a lot of thought into her posting, and I don't think I've seen any big slips. Ircher has an aggressive playstyle and has been a proponent of lynching me, and to be honest I would probably put in an OMGUS against him. I would be most hesitant to vote SiW, because while I do think she's the towniest of the Weak Town slot, others have said their cases against her.
I propose that we lynch me on Day 3, because like others have said I don't believe I'd be reliable enough to take into LYLO.
But for now, I'll VOTE: Ircher.

[YawningAngel]

I propose that we lynch me on Day 3

Unless you're playing vengeful or you desperately need your flip to confirm what you're saying, make it a rule not to die as town. If you are town (and we both know you aren't) then you shouldn't willingly walk into a lynch

[Jackal711]

VOTE COUNT 2.2

SummerInWonderland (0) -
YawningAngel (0) -
mhsmith0 (0) -
shannon (1) - Ircher
Eggman (1) - YawningAngel
Ircher (1) - Eggman
KickAssAndGiggle (0) -

Not Voting: mhsmith0, SummerInWonderland, KickAssAndGiggle, shannon

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is Friday, April 8th 2016 at 10:30 pm PDT or in (expired on 2016-04-08 22:30:00)

[Ircher]

Also, assuming we mislynch today, D3 is LyLo.

[KickAssAndGiggle]

Hello, I am back again! And probably won't pop up again 'till several hours/pages have passed.
First off, who was on the Radja lynch? SiW, KAAG, Shannon, Thor, YA.
After reviewing Shannon's posts, I don't see anything super obviously scummy. I'm leaning town on her.

Eggman's Read List: Thor Was Nightkilled, Oh No Edition

Strong Town: Smith, KAAG, Me

Weak Town: SiW, Shannon, Ircher

Low Neutral: YA

If we had to lynch someone today, I would vote YA, Ircher, or SiW. While Shannon is ranked lower in my mind, she puts a lot of thought into her posting, and I don't think I've seen any big slips. Ircher has an aggressive playstyle and has been a proponent of lynching me, and to be honest I would probably put in an OMGUS against him. I would be most hesitant to vote SiW, because while I do think she's the towniest of the Weak Town slot, others have said their cases against her.
I propose that we lynch me on Day 3, because like others have said I don't believe I'd be reliable enough to take into LYLO.
But for now, I'll VOTE: Ircher.

Hi Eggman,

Thanks for the read-list. I have questions:

1) Do you understand that D3 will be LYLO if we lynch wrong today?

2) Why is YA at the bottom of your list, but your vote is on Ircher? Do you agree that might make mislynching more likely, if we don't vote our lowest read?

3) Why are you town-reading mhsmith0 and myself?

[Eggman]

In response to KAAG:
1. No, I did not! Well, that puts a new spin on things.
2. I felt like if I voted YA, my vote would not be backed up by others, if that makes any sense. I thought you guys would be more inclined to vote Ircher.
3A. I trust Smith. Gut feels, yo! 3B. In your leadership position, I feel like I have a better reason to trust you than not.

[YawningAngel]

What's the cost in trying? People might back you (there's a case to be made) and if you never put yourself out there, you're non-contributory at best and policy lynched at worst. All of those options are bad. Go tell people what a scummy scum I am and try to get them on side.

Why should you trust people who assume leadership? Influence over others is just as valuable to scum as it is to town, possibly more so.

[Ircher]

Hence my warning earlier, but that warning is more relevent tomorrow; we should be lynching in the following pool today:

{Shannon, Ircher, Egg, YA} in no particular order. Doubting our townreads isn't going to help us at all for today.

[mhsmith0]

@egg: we need you to work at this. Even if you're wrong. Even if you have to fight at it. Even if people don't believe you. Because if we let you survive to lylo, as you are now, you're going to be a liability.

But much more importantly, newbie games are supposed to be about learning. No one expects you to be perfect. But you arent going to learn anything if you aren't engaging and trying. And that's true whether you're town or scum.

[SummerInWonderland]

okay here we go. This is posts from the start of day 2
711- YA why would thor be your mislynch? I am not a huge fan of talks like "if i was scum" because noone knows and it can be turned so many ways. Thor was intimidating! I think that probably is huge in why he was NK'd so I don't think your first point matters- he could have been seen as a threat either way.
718- KAGG I like this post about Radja- in my opinion UTL leaving was the worse thing that could have happened for her role because Radja couldnt defend it because he is not her
727- lol I have never heard the phrase "taking the piss" - I am Canadian. also I know this has been covered since then but it seemed that Thor was not joking when he scum read Ircher
749- okay I think shannon is committing to herself. her reads all follow the same style (I will get into this)
755- okay so Ircher you thought he was scum but dropped it because you didnt think it would happen..... wtf. I really want to comment on this! so I went against UTL and saw her as scum Kagg did too after. It did not pick up AT ALL for a long time. I was convinced UTL was scum and I was dropping it even though it was not a popular idea at the time. so why the hell would you drop someone that you thought was scum. you didnt think it would happen so it was just okay??? I dont buy this.
765- three reasons why I think thor could have been NK'd he was either on the right track, seen as a threat or thought to be a PR. probably the threat or on the right track so I think who he suspected could hold have done this. or someone threatened by his experience?
768- this posts still shows how consistent shannon is being. she reads people on interactions and personality. look at her read of me then calling thor a jerk and this posts just shows how consistent I think she is. also she went for widely read town players at that time! me then KAGG- trying to get the big baddie towns is what I am calling it. now this could be a lot of things and I do slightly think this consistency in style is good to take note of and could be towny. (someone isnt in her ear?) BUT shannon can you explain your reads.... go in depth- I will have questions on what you say because I found them... interesting...
769- if smith is town I think he deserves an oscar. ALSO this post is where I started to think the KEY IS EGG or IRCHER
778- shannon thoughts on Ircher here- look at the lasts thing you say does he fit into this??
785- not necessarily true at all!!!
786- In my notes I literally had "damn!!" written. so. Ircher went away from the Egg case because he didnt think it would happen... uh ok. he didnt want to follow his strongest scum read because he didnt think he could convince people in time. you had a strange reason for not voting Radja!! is this seperating from this? is this saying "I am town hey look I didnt vote against the town guy!! I MUST BE TOWN" I want people to look at this post because I saw it as huge!

okay with all of this being said I think the key is EGG or Ircher. I am heavily leaning Ircher. YA thinks Eggman is scum (not posting, not being helpful) and some. this would then conclude as YA said it is either shannon, KAGG or I as scum buddy. (I would think shannon if that was true) but she has been consistent. half way through these posts I thought it was EGG or Ircher I am heavily leaning Ircher now. I think if egg flipped town YA would be in the hot seat BIG time. (I think KAGG mentioned this earlier)
also I looked at all of Ircher and YA's post to see how it interacted- YA pretty quite overall of Ircher and Ircher was flipflopping like crazy about YA. what is going on there? bussing set up? but ircher also comes in to deflect attention off of him as well... Basically he is half-committing to the idea of YA scum, proposing it as an absolute then dropping it on the fly. I suggest people to go back and look on that- see if they see anything.
VOTE: ircher

[SummerInWonderland]

also
@Eggman you need to be posting a lot more! as I said to me- you or Ircher are they key so you need to be posting!!

[mhsmith0]

Ircher is now l-2. NO ONE VOTE IRCHER AND GIVE YA OR ANYONE ELSE CHANCE TO QUICKHAMMER!!!!!! N

Ircher, you need to start defending yourself more seriously.

"5. Or, how about 1) The Egg lynch basically died cuz of Thor 2) Deadline was quickly approaching and I didn't have a lot to say about Shannon that would make a good case 3) I was 99% certain Radja/Utl was town. So, basically, I wouldn't conclude anything except I absolutely did not support the Radja wagon. Yes, I saw him as scum. But no, I no longer saw him as D1 lynch because of Thor's fake hammer."

Is an an absolute atrocity of a defense, and now I have to dig into if you're a VI or just flagrantly bs'ing. If we were in a non hammer board, my vote would be on you right now. As it is, you need to work HARD to avoid being d2 lynch.

Ps if you were certain utl/rad was town WHY THE HELL didn't you fight hard against it? WHY THE HELL didn't you fight for the egg lynch?

PPs 559, 589 doesn't suggest surety of utl/rad being town. Try harder. I'm getting pretty strong "ircher is lying" vibes right now.

[SummerInWonderland]

okay also to go with my posts I will give a read list
most towny
Summer
Smith
KAAG
Shannon
Eggman
YA
Ircher
least towny