Mini 1782 Game Over

[Roshar]

Fair enough.

[a plain farmer]

@heuristic:

What would be your response to this?

You Lowell voters, you think him hammering Huntress without reading the room after the fake claim was optimal scum strategy?

[a plain farmer]

Are there any posts in particular you can quote/point to? I had a look through Shaddowez' ISO and nothing jumped out at me.

Hiding and not trying to find scum is more a thing that is shown through someone's pattern of posting as a whole, rather than in a few posts. As far as shaddow is concerned, he showed interest in this game for a few days from April 4th-7th, but I'll note there (and I'm probably a little bit biased here) that his vote on me in 554 was awful. He then didn't do much for the rest of his time in the game, which may very well be because of apathy or having his time consumed by other things.

But then Garmr filled his slot, and barely did anything. There was a minimalism about his posts that is very easily explained as someone trying to hide, and is very difficult to see as someone who doesn't know who the scum are and wants to find out. I encourage you to look at his ISO (only 17 posts).

[a plain farmer]

@Roshar/Everyone

Considering scum players would have known Huntress was caught, do you think it's likely that a scum player would come out and townread/defend her during D3?
You said that it was likely that scum would already know who you are, which is fair, do you think it's likely that a scum player would push you the way Lowell did? Bearing in mind that it was likely you were subsequently going to be revealed as (very likely) town?

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

There seems to be an agreement here that the scum knew from when Rosh posted her case that she was a roleblocker who blocked Huntress the previous night. I suppose it could be that they knew this from a rolecop or follower result, or they took a guess based on Rosh saying that she wasn't going to move her vote. But the kill could've also been stopped as far as they'd have known by a protection or a BP, and I'm pretty sure I've seen instances of people saying they weren't going to move their vote when they didn't actually have a PR result to back it up. So is it really likely that they knew?

[a plain farmer]

Quadruple post!

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

Are you scumreading Froot here?

[Roshar]

@Apf, perhaps scum weren't sure, but I think they at least had an idea of who I may be after 1) The no NK 2) After I went after Huntress 1st post D3 and was clear about not moving my vote. Yeah, some people say things like they aren't going to move their vote, but in context after what happened, I'd say this would send a message to scum.

They could have been stopped by a protection/BP correct, however that argument becomes weaker when you factor in that I started to drill a huntress case immediately D3. And assuming they knew who made the NK, it becomes a matter of connecting the dots, imo. If they weren't really sure about my role, I'd assume scum would subtly try to push me to give more info/claim. It's funny, Titus summarized this thought process much earlier than I.

[Froot Loop]

Sorry to hear about your foot Titus

I agree with Roshar's analysis in 1755.

VOTE: Huntress

I can follow that for now. Seems legit. I am not liking the pushback on you for "trying too hard" either.

This. I was thinking Huntress for my VCA and I just wanted to see if Roshar had an intelligent thought process that I could follow.

So the quotes made it too complicated for you to follow and you were able to do this better because of her summary?

Yes. To force the claim. Scum avoid sheeping and claim the case is bad to force Roshar to claim. If Roshar gets the votes, he doesn't claim.

It sure seems like your avoidance of Huntress and demanding excellent cases is too much. If people vote my scumreads, I am in.

Do you think it was super important to scum that Roshar claim? I mean, I think it's likely that they knew who she was, knowing that Huntress had been tampered with and Roshar coming out hard against her. They did get further information about her role from the claim but I think they essentially would've known.

Do you genuinely think that it's scummy to have questioned Roshar's case? Because almost everyone else did, including mhsmith who is now confirmed town.

I also question your scumread of Huntress which you stated in the thread only after she'd been caught, although we didn't know that yet. As far as I can see, you hadn't mentioned anything about it before D3.

Yes, players had responses to my case. Some developed their town read as the interaction went on, some hopped on. The players that developed a town read, would you feel better about them?

Can you clarify who you're talking about? I think it was natural to question your case, although this could have been faked by scum. There wasn't anything else about the responses which pinged me.

I don't see a Titus/Johnny scum team. I don't think titus would be that blatant with her scum buddy (if she was scum). I also don't see titus scum calling her scum buddy 'obvious town.'

This is fair, although Johnny has fit with potential scum play in D2 and D3 which is a bit worrying for me.

@APF

- I'll have a think about Shaddowez/Garmr, you're right that there's very little in their ISOs and two players playing like this in one slot is interesting. I'd also like HA to clarify his comments about Roshar.

[Roshar]

@froot I'm referring to FAQ's slight town read in 1567, Lowell's town read, and APF (small town lean) in 1585.

[Roshar]

I.e, do you feel better about those slots because they town-read huntress.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Why onto titus after posting a lowell case?

Why you asking about Lowell and not Heur?

[Froot Loop]

@froot I'm referring to FAQ's slight town read in 1567, Lowell's town read, and APF (small town lean) in 1585.

I don't necessarily feel better about them but I think FAQ and APF's responses were fair and town responses. I'm also backing this up with the fact that it was mhsmith's response and my response. But, when that response is so close to doing nothing, it's difficult to put too much weight behind it.

Lowell, as always in this game, is difficult. There's two possible interpretations in my mind:
1) He's scum: he knows Huntress has been interfered with and that because of this there was no kill (ie. there's corroborating evidence.) So, when you come out and post your case against Huntress, he attacks you and townreads Huntress?
2) He's town: you come in with a case against Huntress which he views as questionable. He sees it as fabricated content and his response to this is to scumread you and completely ignore you and your legitimate question in 1564.

I think the second situation is more likely. I'd really like to hear anyone else's interpretation of his play though.

[Titus]

I think 1. It has to deal with basically how scum should approach the game. Namely, determining if Roshar was stubborn town or if he had a PR result. The last person to suspect Huntress was lynched the day prior. Determining if Roshar had a PR and thus was likely unlynchable versus a lynchable VT is a very high priority.

He accuses Roshar of fabricating a case discrediting Roshar but after the claim Lowell's concerns evaporated and hammer happens.

Given Max was right on his reads and the current push on me for being too smart because I looked at vote patterns, it's highly likely I am right.

[Titus]

@Froot Loop,

I didn't mention Huntress by name, but by category. I said that if Max flipped town, we look at the people not pushing anything. Huntress fit the category.

And yes on the quotes/summary thing. I like the link posts much better.

[Titus]

@Roshar/Everyone

Considering scum players would have known Huntress was caught, do you think it's likely that a scum player would come out and townread/defend her during D3?
You said that it was likely that scum would already know who you are, which is fair, do you think it's likely that a scum player would push you the way Lowell did? Bearing in mind that it was likely you were subsequently going to be revealed as (very likely) town?

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

There seems to be an agreement here that the scum knew from when Rosh posted her case that she was a roleblocker who blocked Huntress the previous night. I suppose it could be that they knew this from a rolecop or follower result, or they took a guess based on Rosh saying that she wasn't going to move her vote. But the kill could've also been stopped as far as they'd have known by a protection or a BP, and I'm pretty sure I've seen instances of people saying they weren't going to move their vote when they didn't actually have a PR result to back it up. So is it really likely that they knew?

My point exactly. They wouldn't know until Rishar claimed. Voting Huntress disincentives claiming and makes Roshar obvtown. So bussing is the last thing scum would do until the claim happened.

[Titus]

Quadruple post!

Second, the only reason Roshar claims is if he doesn't get the votes without claiming. The scum would hard defend Huntress or offer counters or lurk to get Roshar's claim. The same people who quick voted Huntress are Froot/Lowell. If they hard townread Huntress, why didn't they pressure Roshar's claim? Because they knew it was true.

Are you scumreading Froot here?

That particular post should have said Garmr. Jumbled thoughts.

[Titus]

Do you genuinely think that it's scummy to have questioned Roshar's case? Because almost everyone else did, including mhsmith who is now confirmed town.

I think questioning is protown as a strategy (duh). Town can have wrong reads and play proscum inadvertently. (See D1 and D2).

Questioning Roshar's case benefitted scum (allowed drawing out a claim) and thus was what scum were likely doing. It doesn't mean that everyone questioning is scum.

[Ircher]

Vote Count - Day 4 VC #4

Titus (2) - Froot, Rosh
Froot (0) -
Johnny (2) - Heur, Lowell
FA_Q2 (0) -
Heur (2) - Plain, FA_Q2
Plain (0) -
Lowell (1) - Titus
Rosh (0) -
No Lynch (0) -
Not Voting (1) - Johnny

Deadline

Day 4 will end on May 26 5:30 PM EST or in (expired on 2016-05-26 17:30:00).

Lynch Threshold

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Mod Notes

Titus V/LA. Fixed VC.

[heuristically_alone]

Ibuprofen

Mafia is better than Ibuprofen

[heuristically_alone]

You Lowell voters, you think him hammering Huntress without reading the room after the fake claim was optimal scum strategy?

I notice you don't want to outright call him scum or not scum. Seems like you're trying to feel out what others think of it so you know whether to scum or town read it.

[Lowell]

^^^ which is why you should vote him

[Lowell]

... and, I now see, already are. touche.

/hides

[a plain farmer]

You Lowell voters, you think him hammering Huntress without reading the room after the fake claim was optimal scum strategy?

I notice you don't want to outright call him scum or not scum. Seems like you're trying to feel out what others think of it so you know whether to scum or town read it.

Ignoring for a moment that it's coming from your top scumread, what would your answer to the question be? I ask since you're a Lowell scumreader, if not a Lowell voter.

[FA_Q2]

Why onto titus after posting a lowell case?

Why you asking about Lowell and not Heur?

Because his vote on titus just did not seem right after the statements about Lowell. After reading it again though, I think that I misunderstood exactly what he was saying about lowell's posting.

[FA_Q2]

UNVOTE:

I need to sort out lowell and titus

[Dierfire]

Bump