Newbie 1707 - Game Over

[RedCoyote]

Red/seth looked way too easy so I tried my best to think of any other scumteams but didn't really get anywhere.

Didn't mama ever teach you that if something looks good to be true, it is?

Seriously though, the answer to your dilemma is simple, Ras: Don't bother yourself trying to solve the game on D1. You will inevitably make assumptions and confirmation biases that prove to be foolish in hindsight later in the game. I am absolutely not trying to partner anyone up right now. Without any flips yet, it's an exercise in futility and frustration.

I'd say beyond what red's giving even which is funny considering we're comparing newbie to long time veteran and IC.

I'd also be very, very weary of equating activity to towniness. Now, it goes without saying that I am not active enough, and for that I should rightfully be consistently beat over the head until that improves, but that does not necessarily speak to my alignment unless you're making the case that the absence is deliberate (which you may be considering). Further, I do not get the same good vibes from Hoppic at this time. His lastest posts are a mix of fluff and repeating himself.

I agree with your Kal read, but, again, I'm at a loss how I'm the only one that doesn't really see anything wrong with Seth here. I just don't understand these negative adjectives everyone is using to describe him, like yours: ridiculous. I'd like you to elaborate on this a bit more, specifically backing up your claims that Seth is calling everyone "stupid for not understanding". If I missed this, I'll eat my words, but I don't think he's said this.

I can understand being 50-50 on seth but he seems to be townreading him

How can you possibly arrive at that conclusion after your 438? This comment is scummy, I'm afraid.

This is completely absurd considering seth's play; it suggests more than anything red hasn't looked at him at all.

On the contrary, I've looked over him pretty hard in an attempt to see what it is I'm missing. A policy lynch on a player that is active and playing the game properly? Huh? In what world does that make sense? Sim is likely mistaken what the term policy lynch even means, but it needed to be brought up nonetheless.

WHY we want those things

Go for it. Explain why you want either or both. I'm most interested in hearing why he would even qualify as a policy lynch.

His concern seems to be of technical details and improving his self image, and while he's using sensible words and logic as his medium (unlike seth) what he's actually doing reads worse to me than seth's angered responses which is at least a conceivable reaction to being wagoned.

"Improving my self-image", come now. I have nothing to prove to anyone here, first off. I find it upsetting that I would be targetted so early due to being rather bold and forward with my reads, but that has nothing to do with improving my image at all. More like, I'm trying to explain to the players in this game that I find it necessary to exhibit both humility and self-confidence in an attempt to rally the town and prevent attitudes of either paranoia (in the case of a potential townKal) or arrogance (in the case of a potential townwgeurts, townKas, townSim or townHop) from losing the game for the town.

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2) Both you and Red have claimed to come in and set traps with little or no explanations nor reasoning beyond why you both cannot be scum. And what has that netted us so far ?

And what traps am I to have set, Murph? Further, unlike Seth, I'm not even bothering to go into detail why I cannot be scum with Seth. I find that argument rather dull as it will be proven wrong soon enough should the town continue down this path.

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Thinking about it, this may be RedCoyote's last game, no one wants to burden themselves and play with such the likes of you.

I don't know how you came up with this, but it creeps me out a bit how prescient this post could be.

---

Seth are you strong townreading red entirely on him not voting for you?

It seems to me that his conclusions are more derived from the fact that we don't make sense as scum together given my actions. Anyone that had the thoughtfulness in this game to back away from that short-sighted prediction would be able to appricate such an argument, I would think.

---

For the record:
Red's "trap" for reactions 421
In any case, I don't want to lynch Murph today.

I wouldn't consider that a trap. I'd consider that an opinion.

[RedCoyote]

I can not comprehend someone looking at seth's posts here and thinking "hmm, seems perfectly reasonable".

Reaction testing is a common strategy.

I've got a call and must go work, but I'll check back later.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Seth L-1

[Murph]

Hi Red

The composition of your wall makes it difficult to isolate your statements for my retorts.

With that said, I will attempt to do so without creating another wall.

Per my points about replacing Seth when he had all but resigned from the game.

That would depend on the ruleset and the mod. At this point, I have no desire to request a replacement any of the players here.

It's a moot point now that Seth has decided to continue on.

You said that already. You effectively said all of this in 381 (you even used the same noun, "agenda", that you used earlier, despite the fact that I refutted it in 424). I was looking for you to back up your claim in 376, which you have clearly declined to do so.

I didn't decline. I pointed out that I had already commented on it and even included the posts relevant to said comments. Yes, I feel like you did have an agenda. You cannot refute my opinion without also accepting that it didn't change my opinion. 2 way street.

Because I clearly don't see what the fuss is all about, but I'm also looking at him from a position of bias given the wagon on me and his willingness to call me town in a town that will not.

A formal case would be nice because if you cannot make an organized, well-documented one, then you're asking me to take the word of yourself, wgeurts and Hoppic. This would not make much sense for me at the time given the reads I have on you three.

Nice, you cannot see the fuss ? The rest of us are wrong in thinking/saying Seth's play thus far has been anything but anti-town ?
Okay, take off your blinders and look at what we've said :knowing: it comes from townies. Does it change anything for you ?

And what traps am I to have set, Murph? Further, unlike Seth, I'm not even bothering to go into detail why I cannot be scum with Seth. I find that argument rather dull as it will be proven wrong soon enough should the town continue down this path.

I was making reference to [post=#p7941345]post 421[/post] and although I was including it in an ambiguous statement calling it a "trap" may not have been the best description of your admitted play. I say this because I too rely on reactions as part of the evaluation process.

I'm not walking it back as it was part of my talking point which included Seth's self-admitted sloppy play and attempts at "traps" .

[Murph]

post 421

[wgeurts]

Right, can we not hammer just yet.

I'm catching up right here and want to get my thoughts in.

[wgeurts]

Scum to Town, from top to bottom
1.wgeurts
2.Simonyd
3.Hoppic
4.Murph
5.KaladinStormblessed
6.Raskolnikov
7.AlpacaAlpaca
8.RedCoyote
9.SethYazura[/b]

Someone asked me why I thought this reads-list was terrible so here's why (although it's like 10 pages back but whatever).
To start off with, he is scum-reading the two players who at that point in time where the most globally-town read. Now you could say that's good as it may be town daring to challenge the popular opinion, I disagree. There's a reason me and Sim were town read: we were acting town. To just plonk these two reads up there and not make at least a small case explaining them is not town challenging the popular opinion and sharing his own. Like, way to go putting your main critics as your first bets for scum. He hadn't even voted one of us either, why?
Also notice how the reads seem to also go from "pushing him most" to "pushing him least". He's just put together a bunch of reads that seem completely illogical and then has proceeded to not explain them, that looks like what we call a "fake reads-list".

[wgeurts]

Hoppic seems like such a good compromise lynch for all of you that cannot agree on Seth or me. Think about it.

We're not compromising, that's how scum win late-day mislynches.

[wgeurts]

wgeurts ought to know better than to start pairing people on D1.

Actually, I like to think these kind of things out so that once there are flips I've already considered the possible options. Do I form reads off these pre-flip associatives though? No. There's nothing wrong with what I did.

[wgeurts]

Policy lynch:

Seth

Why is Seth a policy lynch?

Do you claim he is playing well?
Do you claim he is aiding the town?
Do you claim he isn't being a liability?

Even if you're not scum-reading him because of "too-scummy-to-be-scum" or whatever you cannot answer yes to the above right now.

[wgeurts]

Also I really dislike this logic of let's lynch him for being a bad town player... in a beginner's game on day 1. A policy lynch? I don't think so.

I think that players need to defend themselves. I don't see Seth doing that.

So all of my past posts intended to defend myself is not actually defense in your book?
I can't give you a scum read as I don't trust everyone else except KaladinStormblessed for the newbtowniness and RedCoyote not pushing to lynch me when he has the perfect opportunity to do so without drawing suspicion on himself. I only explained wgeurts and Simonyd as the rest of the players are parroting them except RC.
If you can't decide I am town, but can't decide I am scum either, don't push me for a lynch, I asked you a question what will you gain if I flip town, and who is my partner if I am scum? Of course you ignored this and call it nonsense.
Emotions do sway and influence posts and the players won't even notice this, we can quickly notice this in another player if I am actually scum.

Contradiction here backing-up my point stating he's making crumpets up, this time regarding his reads-list.

If he can only trust RC and KS (implying they're strong town reads) why is KS in the middle of his reads list? Smmmh.

[wgeurts]

Red Coyote, me not having drawn scum in so long was a comment for people to take into consideration of the thought I could play a great scum game.

Heh

Also saying we're just calling all your stuff crumpets which isnt the case is not a defense.

Why did you deny that you're calling my stuff crumpets, calling me crumpets means you can't understand me or you are being ignorant, this is significant enough to be a case. You are pressing on me for a lynch when you admit you can't even understand what I'm saying.

Calling your stuff crumpets means I'm saying "this is a load of utter tosh". I fully understand what you're saying, this attack is (wait for it) crumpets.

[wgeurts]

I have a hard time justifying not lynching Seth tho. I dunno, I just don't get it.

It's like people are making up reasons not to lynch him besides the evidence which people pointedly refuse to refute. Huh?

[wgeurts]

Alpaca is definitely town.

[wgeurts]

{wgeurts}
{Simoyd, AlpacaAlpaca}
{Murph, Raskolnikov}
{KaladinStormblessed}
{Hoppic, RedCoyote}
{SethYazura}

Page 21.

[wgeurts]

Of all things to post about on page 21 KS pops in with Night Kill speculation rabble.

[wgeurts]

Spoiler:

I'm here. I wanted red to answer my question before I went into things but everyone's getting impatient. Catchup time.

Red/seth looked way too easy so I tried my best to think of any other scumteams but didn't really get anywhere.
Hoppic looked potentially scum especially if red was town because of how he was completely uninvolved until red voted him and then he suddenly appeared and jumped on red in (what I think is) a shallow way, and knowing about scumslips and the like didn't feel congruent with not understanding half the people in the game. So it was looking like a red scumteam, likely with seth, or a hoppic team with kali or wguerts, and what made me second guess red scumread is that if he was town we'd probably agree with who scum are; red town makes seth look a lot better too. The problem being that hoppic having looked shaky and a bit of paranoia about kali and wgeurts potentially being partners with almost anyone had the game rather murky; even a TvT red/hoppic seemed possible, though unlikely, with {seth,kali} and {wgeurts,kali} or something with murph on the table.

Since then, hoppics been looking a lot better and I'm seeing scumhunting and some thought there, I'd say beyond what red's giving even which is funny considering we're comparing newbie to long time veteran and IC. Explaining a townread is pretty difficult as you're mostly going over why things are normal and trying quantify the absence of scum-motivated action; without going into it he's moderate-town but not absolute, so around murph level.
Kaladin hasn't really picked up but the complete nonchalance I'm seeing here is more null than anything else, having outlined his reads as basically following consensus makes his complacency plausible. I'd speculate actually that if kala was scum his laziness is from a good position, and his partner more likely than not being heavily townread combined with kala himself not being high on the lynch priority for today. I don't think encouraging him for the nth time to post more is going to do anything but as it is he doesn't seem worth wagoning at this point. Moreso than kala or wguerts actually changing recently I thought I was possibly a bit paranoid and overthinking to try to see another scumteam possible when seth and red look legitimately scummy.

I didn't think seth could get more ridiculous when I had left but he did somehow. Dedicating his time to self-partner analysis (???) and just behaving incredibly bizarrely, especially when he makes out as though he's intentionally doing all these lures and gambits and that we're all stupid for not understanding! With all that said I get the impression some of it is stylistic; in other words even though he's probably scum here I wouldn't rule him acting like this as town out. Technically don't have evidence to back that feeling up but it's a concern for me nonetheless. That said I'd be more than happy to policy lynch him and even if he's 70-30 scum-town I don't value the remaining 30 there that much if you understand me. This is my second pick to lynch, and is also my second greatest scumread even if the lynch itself would be a fraction policy encouraged.

But I actually think red's views on seth make him worse than seth himself! I can understand being 50-50 on seth but he seems to be townreading him and I don't really see how; from my perspective the best case scenario for people reading seth here is a "I have no clue" read which makes you hesitate to lynch him but is by no means a good read. I don't know where town-red would have got the evidence to back up his townread here, and if this was another scenario I'd actually consider such an unexplainable read as a cop-check or something, obviously not a possibility here on d1. But even if you do townread seth, how are you fine with him seth here; if I thought seth was town I'd be more upset with his play than I am now because it's legitimately something to blame him for rather than him being scum. Red thoughts on this are ridiculous though.

Policy lynch:

Seth

Why is Seth a policy lynch?

I may have a blind spot to Seth. I just don't see anything particularly negative there. Perhaps if someone presented a formal case against him I could be persuaded.

This is completely absurd considering seth's play; it suggests more than anything red hasn't looked at him at all. Even if seth is town, and red disagrees with both the scumread and any policylynch motivation, he should at least have a basic understanding of WHY we want those things. Disagreeing and hard defending would be significantly better especially on the policy grounds but instead he doesn't seem to even know why anyone would want either of those and that's not a perspective I can see from town.

Both seth and red are weak in their pushing, but red's actually worse in this regard. Red's stated where he thinks scum are but isn't really trying to convince anyone to vote there; his posts mostly go into the details and semantics for why people are voting him. I don't see the same kind of push-back that even seth gives a bit of. Everyone's different but in his position, with the entirety of the game against him and his townread I expect more of a response, whether it be frustration, resignation or proactive trying to convince everyone to vote correctly because they're all incredibly wrong. Even if you aren't an emotional person you should at least be pushing your reads here, if you're town you want to not only change people's reads but also to let them know why exactly wgeurts/hoppic/murph as scum; quietly defending himself isn't accomplishing all that much. Most of the detail he did give on his scumreads was when prompted to do so. His concern seems to be of technical details and improving his self image, and while he's using sensible words and logic as his medium (unlike seth) what he's actually doing reads worse to me than seth's angered responses which is at least a conceivable reaction to being wagoned.

Red/seth is probably the team even if it looks too easy, but I can also see scum-red whiteknighting town-seth as another possibility, partnered with kali or someone else. It's tempting to lynch seth because as a town player it'd be less of a loss along with his VT claim, but I see sethtown as possible whereas redtown doesn't make sense with how I see the game and would pretty much force me to throw out my reads.

This bumps Rask back up to solid-town.

[Simoyd]

@wgeurts: why is hoppic so low in your list?

[wgeurts]

Why you couldn't say shut the fuck up in four words!?? You meant in your post shut the fuck up or else you go higher in my scumreads and I will vote you, and this in a game that you are required to talk to other players.

"I'll scum-read you if you push me too loudly"

[wgeurts]

Oh nevermind, read that wrongly.

[wgeurts]

@wgeurts: why is hoppic so low in your list?

I'll get to that my friend

I'm off for now though, tomorrow morning I'll finish my catch-up and I'll post more read explanations.

[Murph]

Y'all enjoy the weekend

:wine:

[Raskolnikov]

@wgeurts: why is hoppic so low in your list?

For what it's worth my personal switching from red to seth here is almost entirely because upon review I can actually see seth/hoppic as a possibility here.
Considering hoppic flew into scumreading red when the opportunity arisen and strongly prefers that lynch to seth it is something to think about, along with less thought on other (non red and seth) reads than most other people have shown. For someone scum with seth pushing the alternative that comes up while still scumreading seth isn't at all unreasonable, and if hoppic is town his play around that was just inconvenient or unlucky in how it looks because it did so happen he wasn't involved until the convenient moment to relieve pressure from seth.
That said it's mostly circumstantial and between him/red I'd still think hoppics more likely town there. But as it is I'd rather take the seth lynch if there's a small chance red's town just misreading seth and seth is with hop or potentially something else (kala?).

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Scum to Town, from top to bottom
1.wgeurts
2.Simonyd
3.Hoppic
4.Murph
5.KaladinStormblessed
6.Raskolnikov
7.AlpacaAlpaca
8.RedCoyote
9.SethYazura[/b]

Someone asked me why I thought this reads-list was terrible so here's why (although it's like 10 pages back but whatever).
To start off with, he is scum-reading the two players who at that point in time where the most globally-town read. Now you could say that's good as it may be town daring to challenge the popular opinion, I disagree. There's a reason me and Sim were town read: we were acting town. To just plonk these two reads up there and not make at least a small case explaining them is not town challenging the popular opinion and sharing his own. Like, way to go putting your main critics as your first bets for scum. He hadn't even voted one of us either, why?
Also notice how the reads seem to also go from "pushing him most" to "pushing him least". He's just put together a bunch of reads that seem completely illogical and then has proceeded to not explain them, that looks like what we call a "fake reads-list".

So I have to say that he did make a reason for putting you up there, which i found intriguing, which he actually said in the part of that quote that you cut off. Being that you and Simon are controlling the game and that he sees a possible scum team there because everyone seems to be following your reads and parroting instead of thinking for themselves. So if you two were scum it would be a wonderful play to pull off, certainly hard to do it without tripping over yourself or getting stuck in the psychology of being scum but you can't just say there is no reason. He had also answered the question about not having voted anyone here

Also why isn't Seth voting his top scum reads?

Doesn't matter anymore, it won't change the outcome.

Which admittedly was really weak and pointless especially because of the no work it would have taken to do it, but I think at that point he had given up and was assuming we would lynch him despite any argument he made. You also responded to this in post 397 so you definitely saw it. Also would like to add I've been on Seth for a while, him being the only person I've voted for and I have yet to remove that vote. I have been asking him questions about his plays and reads and yet I was placed just above Coyote who was straight town reading him and just below Rask who was trying at that time to find a way for it to not be a Seth/Coyote team because he thought it was too easy and was more on Coyote anyways.

The idea of a Seth policy lynch has merit and I have been on the train since basically the beginning however, you can't just ignore what he has said that was possibly constructive, as well as saying he hasn't done something when he has. But I agree with the other posts you laid out especially 586. But I really don't like how you said

To just plonk these two reads up there and not make at least a small case explaining them is not town challenging the popular opinion and sharing his own

When he actually had made a case in the same post you quoted! Even if you didn't like the case or think it was weak you can't just not even acknowledge that it happened.

[wgeurts]

It's not a case, a case has evidence and reasoning explaining why someone is more likely to be a certain alignment.

This is conspiracy, something that is technically possible but has no real evidence to support it.