Newbie 1713 (Game Over)

[inspectorscout]

Btw is mod dead? Its been twilight for ages already

[arak-and-skhug]

Fear of looking scummy/opportunistic is only a good reason not to do something if you're scum. town should vote for whoever they want with the purpose to lynch scum. If you think someone is scum and you don't vote them, that's not pro-town. Even if casting that vote will make people suspicious of you, it's scummy not to do it. If you're town, doing something to advance your win condition that still might get you lynched is no big deal. If you're scum, it obviously is.

Inspector is at the top of my scum list going into Day 2.

[Foxbird]

Yeah, I hope TTH is alright. She probably just didn't expect the Day to end so quickly, seeing as there was like a week left on the timer..

[inspectorscout]

So like, the train was going there anyway, and as i said before, i wasnt aaaaaaaaa sure. If she didnt selfhammer i might have asked for a claim with intent to hammer, but i wouldnt have hammered unless the claim was terrible
Even so, i was leading cakez wagon and it still seems viable to me

[inspectorscout]

Fear of looking scummy/opportunistic is only a good reason not to do something if you're scum. town should vote for whoever they want with the purpose to lynch scum. If you think someone is scum and you don't vote them, that's not pro-town. Even if casting that vote will make people suspicious of you, it's scummy not to do it. If you're town, doing something to advance your win condition that still might get you lynched is no big deal. If you're scum, it obviously is.

Inspector is at the top of my scum list going into Day 2.

Oh and you mean, whatever i did, i would be fucked anyway? If ur not 100% sure and someone is at L-2, you are suspected, L-2 too, and you believe someone else is a better lynch than that first person, would you jump on? Instead of just attacking me on why i do, try to figure out why i do so.

[Charloux]

I know my nick sounds girly, but i'm a guy...
I feel bad for you inspector, getting scumread for something that never crossed your mind while posting.

[Chip Butty]

So, Charl, if you weren't buddying me, what WERE you doing? You could hardly have posted anything that would have pinged me harder, other than "Hi Chip, I'm scum. D'oh!"

[Charloux]

That was me being me... I would've done it regardless of alignment.
I was a doctor for my first 3 games so the gameplay i developed is kind of scummy...

[TellTaleHeart]

Final Vote Count of Day 1

SirCakez [2] - Wirt, inspectorscout

Charloux [5] - Foxbird, Huntress, Chip Butty, arak-and-skhug, Charloux

inspectorscout [2] - SirCakez, Alexcellent

Not Voting: No one

5 to lynch

[TellTaleHeart]

Charloux was lynched.

Spoiler: He was a

Mafia Roleblocker

Night 1 will end in (expired on 2016-06-06 12:23:22).

[TellTaleHeart]

Nobody died on Night 1.

Day 2 has begun! With

8

alive, it takes

5 votes to lynch

. Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-20 12:55:37).

[Chip Butty]

So, we most likely either have a Jailkeeper who blocked the kill, in which case whoever they blocked is very prob remaining scum OR we have a Doc who saved the target, in which case the one saved is confTown and we have a cop. If we do have a cop and they got a Mafia result on someone they should claim and we can wait to see if counterclaims emerge. Jailkeeper, if there is one, should claim with who they blocked, and again we can wait for counterclaims. I think the prob of Mafia staying home last night, given that there is no tracker, is very low to zero.

[Chip Butty]

Whoops! Or jailkeeper jailed the intended target. Almost forgot that. I've never played a game with a real jailkeeper.

[Huntress]

If we have a jailkeeper then we also have a BP who could also account for the missing kill. A cop with a guilty should definitely claim but a JK should probably not claim yet.

[SirCakez]

VOTE: Inspector
I think continuing the wagon here is a good place to start.

[Chip Butty]

If we have a jailkeeper then we also have a BP who could also account for the missing kill. A cop with a guilty should definitely claim but a JK should probably not claim yet.

Yes, exactly. I shouldn't have rushed into those posts without thinking it through a bit more.

[inspectorscout]

+ a jailkeeper is pretty much dead if he claims, I dont think thats a wise decision

[arak-and-skhug]

what if we all mass claimed? worst case we might lose a PR but if everyone with a night action comes out and says who they targeted shouldn't we be able to narrow it down pretty quick? And with only one scum left if there was a CC we could just lynch both of them and still come out on top. Let me know what you think, maybe I'm being rash.

until we have a better plan I'm down with continuing the Inspector wagon

VOTE: Inspector

[Foxbird]

It might be too early for a massclaim, but I'm not good at doing the math/chances in my head, and I've never been in a game where people opted to do a massclaim.

IF

we do it, though, the scummiest players (e.g. the ones who most people lean scum on the most) should claim first (which is Inspector and Cakez, according to D1 wagons). But yeah, we can make a decision once everyone actually drops in again.

Also, choo choo, L-2.
VOTE: Inspector

[Wirt]

Assuming we have Cop+Doc, and WCS, a massclaim now gets us to 3v1 MyLo, with two confirmed VTs. (WCS: Worst Case Scenario, where mafia kills optimally, Cop only gets innocent checks, and no correct lynches)

D2: 7v1
Cop + Doctor + checked VT confirmed; Mislynch unconfirmed VT (suspect pool now 4p).
D3: 5v1
Cop + 2 checked VTs; mislynch unconfirmed VT (suspect pool now 2p).
D4: 3v1
2 checked VTs; MyLo between two suspects.

Correct me if my math is wrong. What I get from this, is a massclaim is not necessarily going to win us the game outright, and it could get down to a 50/50 (assuming equal scum equity on the two unconfirmeds). It'd mean the Cop only gets one extra relevant check before the Doctor dies.

[Wirt]

Well, mathematically speaking, of course. Once you factor in reads, it should be more than a 50% chance.

[SirCakez]

We can just Follow the Cop at this point. Doc doesn't need to claim.

[arak-and-skhug]

yo we don't even know if we have a cop. also if we mass claim there's so many ways for a counter claim to happen...for example if scum claims doctor, either the real doctor, the one-shot, or the jailkeeper could counter depending on what we have. That alone if a 50/50 percent chance for scum to mess up

[SirCakez]

Oh true, could also be JK/Bulletproof.

[Wirt]

yo we don't even know if we have a cop. also if we mass claim there's so many ways for a counter claim to happen...for example if scum claims doctor, either the real doctor, the one-shot, or the jailkeeper could counter depending on what we have. That alone if a 50/50 percent chance for scum to mess up

What? There's only one mafia member left.
Let's assume for a moment a CC will happen once a massclaim begins. Let us assume scum will claim FIRST.

1. Scum claims Doctor.
   • If row 2 rolled, the real doctor CCs. We lynch today between them, and if game isn't over, the other claimer is confirmed scum.
     
   • If column A rolled, the scum is outed by the JK/BP both claiming.
2. Scum claims Cop.
   • If row 2 rolled, the real Cop CCs. We lynch today between them, and if game isn't over, the other claimer is confirmed scum.
     
   • If column A rolled, the scum is outed by the JK/BP both claiming.
3. Scum claims Jailkeeper.
   • If column A rolled, the real Jailkeeper CCs. We lynch today between them, and if game isn't over, the other claimer is confirmed scum.
     
   • If row 2 rolled, the scum is outed by the Cop/Doc both claiming.
4. Scum claims BP.
   • If column A rolled, the real BP CCs. We lynch today between them, and if game isn't over, the other claimer is confirmed scum.
     
   • If row 2 rolled, the scum is outed by the Cop/Doc both claiming.

The same thing happens if scum claims AFTER. The scenarios are the same.
So maybe I'm just misreading, and you were being sarcastic, but scum's only out here in the scenario of a massclaim is claiming VT. A CC just won't happen, unless we leave claiming until MyLo.

I agree with Cakez. Unless doctor can't heal same target twice, perhaps we should FtC.