Micro 615: The Walking Dead: Episode 5 (GAME OVER)

GuiltyLion · Post Post #425 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:49 am

@Smart - BBT, me. "His read on java is questionable"? I guess technically the BBT read is assuming it's TvS rather than java being scum

drmyshottyizsik · Post Post #426 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:50 am

Ok so most likely we are at 7:2 right now.

If we assume one of the two of them is scum and we lynch right today, tomorrow we go to 6:1 and we go on our way.
If we assume one of the two of them is scum and we lynch wrong today, tomorrow we go to 5:2, then lynch the other and go to 4:1. This means we are only one mis lynch away from lylo.
If we assume one of the two of them is scum, but they both end up being town, we go to 5:2, then lynch the other and go to 3:2. We are now in lylo with no where to go because we tunneled.
If we assume one of the two of them is scum, but they actually are both scum, we go to 6:1, and then we better hope we can figure it out(this scenario is very unlikely because if they are both scum we have town PRs that are being quiet.

The only good out come here is if we lynch right today

Now let's look at my idea.

Let's assume one of the two are scum, and remove them both from the equation today.
If we assume one of them is scum, but lynch elsewhere today and hit scum we go to 6:1, and will either hit scum and got o 6:0 or choose wrong and go to 4:1, and then lynch the other and go to 4:0
If we assume one of them is scum, but lynch elsewhere today and hit town we go to 5:2, then lynch scum and start the next day at 4:1. This means we are only one mis lynch away from lylo.
If we assume one of them is scum, but lynch elsewhere today and hit town we go to 5:2, then lynch wrong we go to 3:2 lylo with con scum, and go to 2:1 lylo, much better than the 3:2 lylo with no conf scum.
If we assume one of them is scum, but they are both town, and lynch elsewhere today and hit scum, we go to 6:1 with two confirmed town.
If we assume one of them is scum, but they are both town and lynch elsewhere today and hit town, we go to 5:2 with two confirmed town.

I just see lynching else where as mathematically better than picking one today.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #427 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:50 am

Regardless my point stands that you have a very fixed way of looking at the game right now and I strongly disagree with it

Maverick1102 · Post Post #428 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:08 am

Shotty trying to play the game with maths doesn't read well to me. Just noise, in my opinion.

drmyshottyizsik · Post Post #429 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:11 am

In post 428, Maverick1102 wrote:Shotty trying to play the game with maths doesn't read well to me. Just noise, in my opinion.

Math is just noise? I just worked out all of the scenarios so we know what we are doing. My only point is if we are doing this we better be damn sure about what we are doing.

ISO · Post Post #430 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:17 am

In post 425, GuiltyLion wrote:@Smart - BBT, me. "His read on java is questionable"? I guess technically the BBT read is assuming it's TvS rather than java being scum

That's correct, BBT read is assuming it's TvS. Not assuming Java is scum.

However, the read on you has nothing to do with Java's alignment. Scum have to fake all their reads, both on scum and on town. So if a read looks fake (like your argument that Java not trying to scumhunt is towny), then it tells me something about your alignment, regardless of if you're looking for an excuse to townread your buddy or to whiteknight/buddy a doomed townie.

Maverick1102 · Post Post #431 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:38 am

Yeah, it's just noise. Do you think Java is scum?

ISO · Post Post #432 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:41 am

In post 351, Javajoe24 wrote:Why lynch me when you can have WL investigate me tonight and know for sure?

Because you're basically CCing each other?

In post 357, Javajoe24 wrote:Well what if we are both town and you lynch me today. I am going to flip town, and immediately you will all assume WL is lying and lynch them tomorrow. In that case you will lynch 2 Town PRs when you could wait a day, and have us investigate each other and show for sure if one of us is scum or not.

I find this highly unlikely

In post 364, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Don't like the Java wagon.

Why not?

In post 366, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:You're a two shot cop? That seems awfully overpowered for a micro, especially for Radja.

Radja has used two-shot Cops before

ISO · Post Post #433 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:45 am

In post 377, Javajoe24 wrote:
In post 371, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
In post 370, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:In that case, why can't both roles be town?
Only one way to fin out,
So you are saying the only way to find out is to lynch one of us? As opposed to having us investigate each other as I suggest?

VOTE: shotty

You don't find WL suspicious at all?

In post 384, GuiltyLion wrote:I still prefer WL lynch to java lynch

also Cakez I think you're just salty about college mafia, your scumread towards me is somewhat ridiculous. I'm the only one with a Mav scumread and I'll take the credit when he flips scum please and thank you

I am salty about that but that's not why I'm scumreading you.
Mav is a super easy scumread.

In post 394, drmyshottyizsik wrote:UNVOTE:
I'm actually thinking this investigating each other is a good idea. SS would be my third choice in a lynch so
VOTE: SS
investigating each other is actually the best idea here. We would pretty much have a confirmed scum. The more I think about it, the more I think one of you has to be lying. My first thought was you both were scum, but no a re read you really don't seem like partners. I scum read you both and wished you were partners but I just don't see you being scum together. I say SS today, for sure scum tomorrow.

Why are you vote hopping so much?

In post 401, pirate mollie wrote:the oooooooooone thing that gives me pause is that it wld be weird I think for radja to recycle a rick grimes role as a 2 shot cop.

hhhhmmmm....

UNVOTE: until i do some digging.

He's reused Rick as Cop now, in Episode 1 and 4 iirc.

In post 406, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Mollie's pushing that it HAS to be one of Java/WL today is scummy as fuck.

No it's not.

In post 422, GuiltyLion wrote:one wagon has the vast majority of support

the other has just me pushing it

HMMMM I WONDER WHICH ONE IS THE ONE THAT SCUM WANT

410 is cute. S_S this game will be a learning experience for you half of your reads are entirely predicated on java being scum, and you assume that people who
defend
java are more likely to be his partner.

The one with only you pushing it obviously since you're scummy

drmyshottyizsik · Post Post #434 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:53 am

In post 431, Maverick1102 wrote:Yeah, it's just noise. Do you think Java is scum?

I'm not sure, that is what scares me about this. The fact that you are so quick to ignore this and rush this lynch is just scummy as hell.

Maverick1102 · Post Post #435 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:59 am

Talking about the maths of lynching in a micro game is noise. The mathematics are skewed by how players interact. Who would you rather vote right now? Because at the moment it almost seems like you're saying 'anybody but them'.

drmyshottyizsik · Post Post #436 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:00 am

In post 435, Maverick1102 wrote:Talking about the maths of lynching in a micro game is noise. The mathematics are skewed by how players interact. Who would you rather vote right now? Because at the moment it almost seems like you're saying 'anybody but them'.

And if you would read the "noise" you would see why! Honestly with your last few post, and the fact that you seem scared of this not going through, I would vote you.

ISO · Post Post #437 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:05 am

Maverick isn't happening today Shotty

GuiltyLion · Post Post #438 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:05 am

Lol at Cakez calling Mav an easy scumread and then scumreading java.

Java is town, WL is scum. Java not trying to scumhunt at L-1 before claiming IS towny, S_S. Again, you're tunneled into your own java read. Scum!java would have

every incentive

to fake scumhunt,

especially

if he thought he was gonna be CC'd on an investigative claim.

ISO · Post Post #439 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:06 am

Why does WL scum CC Java town day 1?

GuiltyLion · Post Post #440 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:11 am

Because WL was the counterwagon and so with a CC they can get the investigative lynched for free

Plus they claimed 2 shot cop so theoretically their claim will still have utility if java flips town. I don't think it'd be as easy as you think it is to lynch WL D2 if java flips town.

drmyshottyizsik · Post Post #441 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:11 am

In post 438, GuiltyLion wrote:Lol at Cakez calling Mav an easy scumread and then scumreading java.

Java is town, WL is scum. Java not trying to scumhunt at L-1 before claiming IS towny, S_S. Again, you're tunneled into your own java read. Scum!java would have
every incentive
to fake scumhunt,
especially
if he thought he was gonna be CC'd on an investigative claim.

GL what do you think of lynching elsewhere today?

Maverick1102 · Post Post #442 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:34 am

In post 436, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
In post 435, Maverick1102 wrote:Talking about the maths of lynching in a micro game is noise. The mathematics are skewed by how players interact. Who would you rather vote right now? Because at the moment it almost seems like you're saying 'anybody but them'.
And if you would read the "noise" you would see why! Honestly with your last few post, and the fact that you seem scared of this not going through, I would vote you.

No joke, why aren't you then? If you're hunting for scum outside of those two (with a 20% chance of hitting scum rather than what is quite likley a 50% by the way, yay maths) then why aren't you trying hard to get me lynched?

Stop coasting and take a strong stance on -something- please.

BlueBloodedToffee · Post Post #443 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:36 am

Someone talk to me about why Java is scummy without mentioning roles.

Also, it's not a fucking counter claim. They're two completely different roles.

GuiltyLion · Post Post #444 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:37 am

@shotty - nah

plus dueling 1v1 wagons is the best way to get reads, distracting it with votes dispersing elsewhere serves no benefit at this juncture

BlueBloodedToffee · Post Post #445 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:39 am

1v1'ing potentially two town power roles on D1 is dumb as fuck!

We can allow both of them to use their abilities then report results the next day. If we lynch them and they flip town, we have a result to use and work with. Lynching them on D1 is beyond stupid.

drmyshottyizsik · Post Post #446 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:48 am

In post 445, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:1v1'ing potentially two town power roles on D1 is dumb as fuck!

We can allow both of them to use their abilities then report results the next day. If we lynch them and they flip town, we have a result to use and work with. Lynching them on D1 is beyond stupid.

thank you!
and ok mav you want a vote?
VOTE: mav

pirate mollie · Post Post #447 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:54 am

In post 429, drmyshottyizsik wrote:
In post 428, Maverick1102 wrote:Shotty trying to play the game with maths doesn't read well to me. Just noise, in my opinion.
Math is just noise? I just worked out all of the scenarios so we know what we are doing. My only point is if we are doing this we better be damn sure about what we are doing.

you did not work out all of the scenarios at all in the least and you are dead wrong on lynching outside of them today ans somehow *magically* hitting their scum partner

jfc

not to mention your scenario does not have the possibility of an indie

BlueBloodedToffee · Post Post #448 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:01 am

Mollie this tunneling is scummy as fuck.

There is more than one scum. Tell me why Java is scum without using his role that hasn't been CC'ed.

pirate mollie · Post Post #449 (ISO) » Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:23 am

In post 445, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:1v1'ing potentially two town power roles on D1 is dumb as fuck!

We can allow both of them to use their abilities then report results the next day. If we lynch them and they flip town, we have a result to use and work with. Lynching them on D1 is beyond stupid.

not in a micros you dummy

there are most likely

NOT

going to be

2 INVESTIGATIVES

IN THIS SET UP

THIS IS LIKE TRYING TO EXPLAIN THE COLOUR ORANGE WITH SOME1 WHO ISN"T VISUALLY IMPAIRED