Newbie 1713 (Game Over)

[inspectorscout]

Lol rip not that part, the part about me wanting to blow discussion into this previously idle shit. Shouldve made that clear, my apologies

[Wirt]

@re: Alex

When I started making the numbers post, I had the mindset that we could probably break the game just by claiming, thus why work on the WCS assumption right on. Once I was done with it, I realized that wasn't the case, so I felt more uneasy towards outright accepting it, as the chance of getting it wrong was still there, and perhaps simply playing it safe would be more optimal. Later Cakez suggested FtC, reminding me the Doc didn't have to claim, which would make the WCS even less likely to happen-- though yes, I still wanted to be sure of what else people thought of the idea. As for the rest of that theory post regarding what the scum claims, it was to correct Arak as to what scum would claim- it's pretty obvious no scum would claim anything but VT at this point. For the last quote, yes I agree to accidently leaving it ambiguous, but seeing as I had made no mention of the rest of posts that happened in-between my reads on both and that reply, the common sense assumption should still be that my reads remain unchanged.


@re: "WIFOM"

It's not WIFOM, really. If scum!inspector proposes that plan, this happens:

1. Arak is lynched.
   • The following day, inspector keeps to his word and does not resist his own lynch, and loses. This is the townie approach, but he still lynched.
     
   • The following day, inspector resists his own lynch, previously contradicting himself. This is the scummy approach, and he is lynched.
2. Inspector is lynched.
   • He loses. lol
3. Neither of the two are lynched.
   • This is dependant on how you read Inspector and Arak. If you believe both are town, you have no reason to believe scum WIFOM is involved. If you believe both are scum, then WIFOM is a moot point as they've both done it; if that's the case you should be weighting your read on them based on the rest of their behavior. If you read both differently, then your reads are a mess; to believe that one is scum WIFOM'ing and the other is town conceding themselves to the chain lynch is nonsensical.
     
   • As for inspector himself-- If you truly believe he is scum WIFOM'ing, vote him. He won't resist, and if he does, refer to case one: It only dooms him further. If you don't truly believe they're scum, then mentioning WIFOM as some sort of point against them (keyword: against) is ridiculous; it goes against the own notion of your read on them. And if you read them as null, then arguing "It could be WIFOM!!!" really does not further help you on constructing that read, and your time would be better spent elsewhere.
     
   • In short: Defending the possibility that inspector (or Arak) are scum by their plan suggestions relies on scumreading them.

If the last point confuses you, Cakez, just refer to deferentsheep (vorono rather) and Elastoid in 9E, once I surrendered as town by D3. That's more or less what I'm talking about here. Deferent didn't argue I could be scum because he was already townreading me, and he asked me to not give up; Elastoid didn't argue that conceding made me more likely town by meta, he simply stuck with the lynch since he was already scumreading me. If you truly can't understand this, you're either not salvageable, or scum.

This slides Wirt down my reads pole more. It should be blatantly obvious how it could be scum WIFOM. By suggesting he be lynched, it puts doubt into everyone's mind as to if he's actually the last scum. Thus, WIFOM

And through denying the lynch to be between either of Arak and Inspector, both wagons which had some traction at some point, by proposing that WIFOM is not involved from either party, I become a likelier scum candidate because...?

Refer to what I said above. I say you're more likely to be scum simply by throwing the ""WIFOM"" argument at inspector as a lazy method to not softconfirm him.

[Foxbird]

@foxbird: thefuck? So, you think im either retarded scum or weird town? I never stated that i want to abandon the lynch4lynch, there is only 1 scum left and if that was me charloux would be choking me right now lol. There is no wifom involved in getting yourself lynched at all. You say im most likely town because of that post, but then post me all the way down in your scum reads. What is the reasoning behind that?

Ive been looking at stuff now and arak seems really calm and controlled. That alone could be town, but it could also be scummy because it could stop the lynch thing from happening. NAI, i guess. Still, cakez is exceeding him again, and with foxbirds later posts im not sure either. Basically because agreeing so easily on wifom - lol - and that read thing i mentioned be4. Gonna keep my vote on arak for the sake of our deal for now, but i might as well change to cakez/fox if things stay like this.

I don't really see a problem with saying "this is a towny move, so it'd be a big scum gamble".
Just because you didn't say outright you wanted to abandon the plan doesn't mean that there wasn't a possibility that,

because

of the implications, it would get dropped again by the rest of the players. In fact, you saying you wanted to get the discussion going again actually plays into that somewhat.

You're at the bottom of the list because one thing you do doesn't change my entire read around right away. I actually considered unvoting, but my vote being there is part of your deal with Arak anyway, isn't it? I specifically listed who I'd agree on lynching, I didn't say those were just scummy players. If it comes down to your deal/gladiation, I'd wanna lynch you first, yes. That's mostly why you're there. And if you're set on your deal, the vote there shouldn't matter in the first place.

And about the "agreeing on WIFOM"... that's kind of what this entire game is built around. If actions could so easily be judged as "100% town" or "100% scum", there wouldn't be much of a point in playing Mafia. There's WIFOM in almost everything,

including

being seemingly okay with being lynched.

[Chip Butty]

VOTE: Inspector
I think continuing the wagon here is a good place to start.

what if we all mass claimed? worst case we might lose a PR but if everyone with a night action comes out and says who they targeted shouldn't we be able to narrow it down pretty quick? And with only one scum left if there was a CC we could just lynch both of them and still come out on top. Let me know what you think, maybe I'm being rash.

until we have a better plan I'm down with continuing the Inspector wagon

VOTE: Inspector

It might be too early for a massclaim, but I'm not good at doing the math/chances in my head, and I've never been in a game where people opted to do a massclaim.

IF

we do it, though, the scummiest players (e.g. the ones who most people lean scum on the most) should claim first (which is Inspector and Cakez, according to D1 wagons). But yeah, we can make a decision once everyone actually drops in again.

Also, choo choo, L-2.
VOTE: Inspector

Despite some scummy vibes from Inspector - sorry, I know you don't like that word - I'm looking at this wagon from the start of D2. I said earlier I see Fox as one of the two most Town players, and I do, but it is this post from her that worries me the most from her ISO. The other two are my top two picks for the scum slot. Rather than Inspector, I think I'd almost rather see the "gladiation" between Arak and Cakez. That might change by the time I finish Inspector's ISO, though - if I notice something I haven't already.

[Wirt]

Wait, I see you had inspector as your main scumread for a while now...oops. Yeah, like I said, that read shouldn't necessarily be changed due to his proposition since you already scumread him, so that's alright. I was assuming you had inspector as nullscum or null, more or less, but forgot to fact-check. Fair enough.

That second-to-last line is still relevant though, and an answer is needed.

[inspectorscout]

@foxbird: thefuck? So, you think im either retarded scum or weird town? I never stated that i want to abandon the lynch4lynch, there is only 1 scum left and if that was me charloux would be choking me right now lol. There is no wifom involved in getting yourself lynched at all. You say im most likely town because of that post, but then post me all the way down in your scum reads. What is the reasoning behind that?

Ive been looking at stuff now and arak seems really calm and controlled. That alone could be town, but it could also be scummy because it could stop the lynch thing from happening. NAI, i guess. Still, cakez is exceeding him again, and with foxbirds later posts im not sure either. Basically because agreeing so easily on wifom - lol - and that read thing i mentioned be4. Gonna keep my vote on arak for the sake of our deal for now, but i might as well change to cakez/fox if things stay like this.

I don't really see a problem with saying "this is a towny move, so it'd be a big scum gamble".
Just because you didn't say outright you wanted to abandon the plan doesn't mean that there wasn't a possibility that,

because

of the implications, it would get dropped again by the rest of the players. In fact, you saying you wanted to get the discussion going again actually plays into that somewhat.

You're at the bottom of the list because one thing you do doesn't change my entire read around right away. I actually considered unvoting, but my vote being there is part of your deal with Arak anyway, isn't it? I specifically listed who I'd agree on lynching, I didn't say those were just scummy players. If it comes down to your deal/gladiation, I'd wanna lynch you first, yes. That's mostly why you're there. And if you're set on your deal, the vote there shouldn't matter in the first place.

And about the "agreeing on WIFOM"... that's kind of what this entire game is built around. If actions could so easily be judged as "100% town" or "100% scum", there wouldn't be much of a point in playing Mafia. There's WIFOM in almost everything,

including

being seemingly okay with being lynched.

Sure, keep your vote, i never said you should unvote. However, there is a post up there that says what i want to say, just worded a lot better. Its not wifom, its completely retarded, mentally challenged scum or reckless townie. Up to you to choose one. If you believe im the first, keep your vote, because thats basically what i asked. If you believe im the other option, you can keep your vote too, because I ASKED for this. I dont see any wifom at all. By saying its wifom, you can as well say ''i dont want to see this, lets keep being idle.'' Last thing: i have no control about what other players do. I thought theyd be up for the plan, tbh. Im not a mind controlling genius that somehow gets everyone to back away from the plan, thats just not within my reach.

[Chip Butty]

If you believe both are scum, then WIFOM is a moot point as they've both done it; if that's the case you should be weighting your read on them based on the rest of their behavior.

If you believe both are scum you should replace out and take up a new hobby, because THERE IS ONLY ONE SCUM LEFT. How many times do I have to say that?

If you read both differently, then your reads are a mess; to believe that one is scum WIFOM'ing and the other is town conceding themselves to the chain lynch is nonsensical.

No, not at all. Inspector made his offer out of the blue, when the game was in a lull. He had NO scum motivation to fire things up again. Arak on the other hand, was presented with a fait accompli - he couldn't back out without losing whatever shred of credibility he had left. So...completely different, and it is perfectly valid to Townread Inspector and scumread Arak. Not vice versa, though.

[Wirt]

*If you scumread both.
Which is different than believing both are scum. Meaning, you wouldn't be surprised with either flipping scum.

And scum!arak doesn't really have to accept inspector's agreement either, because it puts him in the same situation as described in #426, just with names reversed.

[Chip Butty]

BTW, if we don't get this right today, a JK - if there is one and they didn't get lynched today LOL - should jail the same player they jailed last night. If there is a kill N2, they will know the jailed player is Town. No NK will be inconclusive, though, since it could be either that the jailed player was the target again or, more likely, the BP took a bullet. Yes, this sort of gives the scum a free shot if he is not the jailed player but, statistically, he would hit a VT or the BP. The chance would only be 1/(7-1) of hitting the JK.

Thoughts?

[Chip Butty]

*If you scumread both.
Which is different than believing both are scum. Meaning, you wouldn't be surprised with either flipping scum.

An important distinction to be clear about.

And scum!arak doesn't really have to accept inspector's agreement either, because it puts him in the same situation as described in #426, just with names reversed.

If scum!Arak refuses the agreement, he is lynched today, loses game.

If he accepts, he encourages us to lynch Inspector first, and tries like hell to wriggle out of it tomorrow when Inspector flips green. It's like the guy in the movies who is forced to dig his own grave. If he refuses, he eats a bullet; if he complies, maybe a miracle will come along to save him. So, accepting is the only real choice for him, if he is to play to wincon.

[inspectorscout]

Nice, by posting that scum can easily avoid your thinking and not NK anyone, and there is still a chance of the jailkeeper dying, no matter how small. Also, if previous night was a bulletproof, its a 1-shot BP so technically you shouldnt count on him either.

...and thats assuming we have a jailkeeper. If we have a cop, id suggest cakez/arak/fox/(me) as a target. You cant be roleblocked anymore, anyway. Doc should know who to protect, but im not going to say who cuz of the same reason as above.

This stuff is pretty much useless right now, though. Setup spec is pretty much worthless in these setups when there is no claim.
And with that said, ill get some more fire in this game. If we dont get the right person killed today, lets mass claim tomorrow. Scum can fakeclaim PR or VT. If he claims a PR, lynch both and 1 of them is scum. Ez win. If he claims VT (which is most likely) we are at 4 vt claims and 2 pr that are conf town. The pr's can even cross claim to make scum lose yet another day. Or dont. Lets not tell scum. That gives 3 vt 1 pr if we have bad luck. No lynch and then lylo with 1 conf town after is the worst possible scenario, but if the jailkeeper/cop does his stuff right that shouldnt happen.

Chip: could i kindly ask for a reads list? Not my iso (i didnt expect u to look at every single post kek, but thanks for finally starting it. What is your opinion on me after that analysis?), but on everyone. That might get you out of the shit you are in rn, because i do believe you are town.

[Chip Butty]

The trouble is, if Town.Arak refuses the agreement, he is lynched today.

If Town.Arak accepts, he persuades us to lynch Inspector first. If Inspector is also Town, then what? If Arak tries to wriggle out of it D3 (because Town, that would be Townish), he wouldn't be believed and would get lynched anyway.

So we should accept the plan ONLY IF we are sure the scum is in [Inspector, Arak] (DUH!).

For me, there is enough doubt over Cakez at least, that we should hold back for now. We have plenty of time, we should keep probing at each other, especially the main suspects, which seem to be Inspector, Arak, Cakez, and me, atm.

[Chip Butty]

Nice, by posting that scum can easily avoid your thinking and not NK anyone,

That would be a good result, imo. Ok, it might cause the JK to get the wrong idea, if there is a JK, but in this scenario, Town basically gets another free shot at getting the lynch right.

[Chip Butty]

Chip: could i kindly ask for a reads list? Not my iso (i didnt expect u to look at every single post kek, but thanks for finally starting it. What is your opinion on me after that analysis?), but on everyone. That might get you out of the shit you are in rn, because i do believe you are town.

Sure, but I don't think I am in any shit. A couple of votes is not a big deal. My reads haven't changed all that much from this list, I think. I'll give it some more thought when I finish your ISO. If anyone wants more detail on anyone, ask away...

My thoughts on everyone ATM:

Huntress & Foxbird seem Towniest.
I don't see why Inspector would have to embark on such a high-risk strategy when the game was in a such a quiet state, so I tend to see his offer as genuine and give him Town points for that.
However, I don't give Arak Town point for accepting, because he pretty much had no choice. I'm suspicious of his statement that we are better off lynching Inspector first.
Wirt I rate as neutral for now.
I am becoming more suspicious of Cakes, partly because of a game that ended yesterday, in which he was - to my surprise - scum. That tells me that I might have trouble picking him as scum. Plus there are a few things he has said, including the misread I picked him up on in our last exchange.
Alex I another one I am not prepared to clear yet. A bit scummy. Will have to ISO him too, I guess.

So, from Towniest to scummiest:

Huntress, Fox
Wirt
Inspector
Alex
Cakez, Arak

[Chip Butty]

This stuff is pretty much useless right now, though. Setup spec is pretty much worthless in these setups when there is no claim.

It is useless if directed at the game in general. But directing advice to a specific role isn't useless, at least not if that role is in the game. And if not, no harm done. It's a Newbie game - our PRs might appreciate some advice about how to proceed.

[Chip Butty]

BTW, Inspector, can you stop posting until I finish this fucking ISO, lol? It's just making more work for me...

Incidentally, I did a post-by-post because I didn't want Arak, or anyone else, to be able to say I half-assed it.

[Foxbird]

I think I misunderstand what WIFOM means. Anyway:

@TellTaleHeart: Asking for replacement.

Sorry, guys. My anxiety has been acting up ever since I made that voting mistake D1, and it got really bad once Charloux lashed out at me. I've been trying to be productive and a good player despite it, but it's not working. I thought I was ready to play Mafia like this. I'm not. You deserve to play with someone who isn't held back like this.

I'll stick to reading games and modding them for my friends.

Good luck to everyone, and have fun!

[Chip Butty]

I think I misunderstand what WIFOM means. Anyway:

@TellTaleHeart: Asking for replacement.

Sorry, guys. My anxiety has been acting up ever since I made that voting mistake D1, and it got really bad once Charloux lashed out at me. I've been trying to be productive and a good player despite it, but it's not working. I thought I was ready to play Mafia like this. I'm not. You deserve to play with someone who isn't held back like this.

I'll stick to reading games and modding them for my friends.

Good luck to everyone, and have fun!

Sorry to see you go, Fox. FWIW, I thought you were playing pretty well. But you know what is best for you. Playiing Mafia seems to take a bit of a thick skin, but I think most of the shit that gets flung around isn't personal. Anyway, good luck, and hope to see you back playing if//when you are ready.

[inspectorscout]

DISCLAIMER: This does not have anything to do with this game - just personal talk to fox.

What? Why? You deserve to play, just as much as we do. This is a newbie game after all; most of us are here to learn, and so can you. Anxiety? Im anxious about making moves too. You dont know how much stress i have when playing this game, afraid to make a move that destroys all town credibility i have...but thats what this game is all about! You have been useful most of the time, you really shouldnt worry about that. If you are really anxious, just write down what you really think and tweak afterwards; this is forum based, nobody sees how much time you spend posting something.

I hope this changed your mind but if it didnt; im sure ill meet you in another game someday!

Pedit yay im not the only one saying this

[Chip Butty]

And remember, Fox, nothing rides on winning or losing here. It's just a game. Everyone will make mistakes (Yes! Even me!). I don't know of anyone who is considered infallible at Mafia.

[TellTaleHeart]

Vote Count 2.4

inspectorscout [2] - SirCakez, Foxbird
arak-and-skhug [2] - inspectorscout, Chip Butty
Wirt [1] - Alexcellent
Chip Butty [2] - Huntress, arak-and-skhug
SirCakez [1] - Wirt

Not Voting: No one

Seeking replacement for Foxbird

5 to lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-20 12:55:37)

[inspectorscout]

Guys pshh pshh its sad that fox cecided to leave but that doesnt mean we should just wait

Ehh..yah my lynch4lynch isnt coming along as i wanted, if anyone is still up for that, go for it, but for now imma help wirt with his cakez wagon for previously mentioned reasoning. Hes my scumread alongside arak (no theyre not both scum i know but i have the feeling 1 of them is (or fox but meh for now)) so lets go!

VOTE: Cakez

[SirCakez]

still be that my reads remain unchanged.
@re: "WIFOM"

It's not WIFOM, really. If scum!inspector proposes that plan, this happens:

1. Arak is lynched.
   • The following day, inspector keeps to his word and does not resist his own lynch, and loses. This is the townie approach, but he still lynched.
     
   • The following day, inspector resists his own lynch, previously contradicting himself. This is the scummy approach, and he is lynched.
2. Inspector is lynched.
   • He loses. lol
3. Neither of the two are lynched.
   • This is dependant on how you read Inspector and Arak. If you believe both are town, you have no reason to believe scum WIFOM is involved. If you believe both are scum, then WIFOM is a moot point as they've both done it; if that's the case you should be weighting your read on them based on the rest of their behavior. If you read both differently, then your reads are a mess; to believe that one is scum WIFOM'ing and the other is town conceding themselves to the chain lynch is nonsensical.
     
   • As for inspector himself-- If you truly believe he is scum WIFOM'ing, vote him. He won't resist, and if he does, refer to case one: It only dooms him further. If you don't truly believe they're scum, then mentioning WIFOM as some sort of point against them (keyword: against) is ridiculous; it goes against the own notion of your read on them. And if you read them as null, then arguing "It could be WIFOM!!!" really does not further help you on constructing that read, and your time would be better spent elsewhere.
     
   • In short: Defending the possibility that inspector (or Arak) are scum by their plan suggestions relies on scumreading them.

If the last point confuses you, Cakez, just refer to deferentsheep (vorono rather) and Elastoid in 9E, once I surrendered as town by D3. That's more or less what I'm talking about here. Deferent didn't argue I could be scum because he was already townreading me, and he asked me to not give up; Elastoid didn't argue that conceding made me more likely town by meta, he simply stuck with the lynch since he was already scumreading me. If you truly can't understand this, you're either not salvageable, or scum.

This slides Wirt down my reads pole more. It should be blatantly obvious how it could be scum WIFOM. By suggesting he be lynched, it puts doubt into everyone's mind as to if he's actually the last scum. Thus, WIFOM

And through denying the lynch to be between either of Arak and Inspector, both wagons which had some traction at some point, by proposing that WIFOM is not involved from either party, I become a likelier scum candidate because...?

Refer to what I said above. I say you're more likely to be scum simply by throwing the ""WIFOM"" argument at inspector as a lazy method to not softconfirm him.

And right now you're townreading him for suggesting this plan apparently?
No, you're being obtuse about something pretty obvious which I don't think town!Wirt would do.

I think I misunderstand what WIFOM means. Anyway:

@TellTaleHeart: Asking for replacement.

Sorry, guys. My anxiety has been acting up ever since I made that voting mistake D1, and it got really bad once Charloux lashed out at me. I've been trying to be productive and a good player despite it, but it's not working. I thought I was ready to play Mafia like this. I'm not. You deserve to play with someone who isn't held back like this.

I'll stick to reading games and modding them for my friends.

Good luck to everyone, and have fun!

I think this is a really town replace-out, if there was still any doubt to Foxbird's alignment.

[Huntress]

Sorry, I wasn't able to get to this at the weekend. I'll catch up tomorrow.

[Chip Butty]

I've been mulling this over for a day or so because Chip's posting about pushing Charloux for a claim seemed too over the top to be be distancing, but I've come to the conclusion that it may well be that. First batch of quotes, spoilered for length, show how he repeatedly insists that he doesn't want to lynch Charloux "now".

Spoiler:

Oh, one final thing for now: I REALLY think it is a good idea for Town to use almost all the time available before lynching. Day lasts two weeks, and I believe it is difficult for scum to keep up their facade under constant pressure for that long. Night breaks give them a chance to regroup and chat among themselves, so let's deny them that as long as possible.

I would like to take Charl to the brink (L-1, intent to hammer declared), and perhaps get a claim from him (but NOT lynch at this point). What do others think?

Not lynch, UNLESS he refuses to claim, that is...

1. The idea of not lynching right now is to let the Day play out to its full extent, the benefit of which I have already mentioned; We can def go ahead and lynch Charl D1 if we press him and he looks scummy enough;
<snip>

So, yeah, to be clear: This COULD go to lynch if Charl fails to convince enough Townies that he is not scum.

Just in case the above isn't already crystal clear: The plan is to take Charl to L-1 with intent, get a claim, then move on to other likely scum suspects. As we approach the D1 deadline, we lynch whoever looks scummiest.

Really, it is only Charl I want a claim from at this point. If we got that, I'd be content to wait until near-deadline to see if anyone emerged looking scummier, and lynching appropriately.

Again, I'm not suggesting getting multiple claims. I've already said I only want a claim from Charl. And I have also said a couple times that, once getting that claim, we can go ahead and lynch NEAR DEADLINE. When I say we back off after getting a claim, I only mean that we should back off until near deadline, so we can se the rest of the day to look at other suspects (BUT, note, not necessarily get more claims). Near deadline, we lynch Charl if he looks the most scummy at that point.

Giving plenty of time for people to move to the next scummy thing. Once a wagon dissipates, it often doesn't rebuild.

Huntress, when you get back to the game, can you please answer these questions,

with your IC hat firmly on

:
Isn't it indeed better for Town to make use of most or all of the time available if the way forward is difficult to see? Isn't it the idea that making use of as much of the Day as possible enables Town to extract as much info from scum suspects as possible, and this tends to benefit Town?