Newbie 1707 - Game Over

[Equinox]

VOTE COUNT 2.5

KaladinStormblessed (2) - AlpacaAlpaca, RedCoyote
AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Murph (0) -
Hoppic (0) -
Raskolnikov (0) -
RadiantCowbells (0) -
RedCoyote (3) - Raskolnikov, Murph, RadiantCowbells

Not Voting: Hoppic, KaladinStormblessed

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Activity Notes: RadiantCowbells is on V/LA until June 14.
AlpacaAlpaca is on V/LA until June 17.
KaladinStormblessed is on V/LA until June 18.

Day 2 deadline is Thursday June 16th at 11:15 pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-06-16 23:15:00)

[AlpacaAlpaca]

Oh god what Have I done ignore all that entire above post

@mod I will be V/LA until Friday June 17th in the afternoon

[Hoppic]

The Wgeurts/Radiant slot

Spoiler:

@ Kal and geurts

Why do either of you have suspicions about a single D1 poster ?

Seems more like Seth was acknowledging/poking an acquaintance with a throw-away D1 vote.

If you think it's more nefarious, please share why.

If you noticed I didn't vote, as there are plenty of other explanation for Seth's actions and I stated as such. Instead what I'm more attempting to do is get content building up through posting my thoughts (even if they are pretty much nonsense or as sturdy as a castle made out of sand) and having others react to them, which in turn leads to more reactions by which point the ball is rolling and we can finally play.

On the other hand though seth's post

does

feel quite forced, do you not feel so?

It's not as random cause it's the second vote on a person, with no real reason, but follow up votes are more suspicious than the first vote. Also you have a reason, joking revenge vote, he doesn't. I don't like to bounce my vote around so I wait to vote. Yes, I have done mafia before, a few games on gamefaqs, unsure if I'll be able to find links. Almost didn't post it for fear it'd be suspicious but didn't want to be silent.

Random votes often last a few pages, it being the second vote really doesn't say much at all. If seth is town he doesn't exactly have a lot of information to start building upon with the few posts before him. Do you follow what I'm saying? His post may read as forced but it may just be his style of posting, with him making an odd joke. It happens enough in games to be a viable possibility.

Newer players don't like voting a lot I've seen so fair enough there, why are you trying to not appear suspicious though? What would you reason for doing that be as town? I can't quite follow your motivation there and am leaning to saying that's likely scum behaviour.

The joke feels like he wanted to make a statement and appear likeable, though it's just a tonal thing and shouldn't be assigned much worth. It's not exactly the most objective of evidence however it's all I had to go with at first.

Thoughts on KS's post 20 though?

So at the beggining here Wgeurts doesn't seem to think too much of the infamous Seth post that started it all

SethYazura

Did I mention that seth's post 8

does

sound forced?
Anyway, that post is honestly worth nothing right now. His later posts are a lot more condemning. Post 86 seems quite defensive, stating that he "made it sound strange on purpose" seems a little unbelievable. His reasons for voting murph are also a little worrying: "If we don't lynch Murph now, we are just going to lynch him later because of how dangerous he sounds.
How about we lynch him now and start from there."
That is not a good reason to lynch anyone ever, and the spurring on of a flash-lynch is also nothing good. As town the only reason to justify his actions being that he's from another site where this is common in their meta, if he can provide games if this is the case I'll seriously reconsider. As scum it looks like he's possibly opportunistically jumping onto a popular suspect and trying to get a quick mislynch.

Post 90 doesn't help either: "sadly I can't tell you my secrets" here he claims his first post has some hidden (ever so obviously "pro-town") intention that he can't speak of right now. I have seen scum do this a lot, it makes it seem like you've got something going on and if you're lucky gets people off your back as a result. Read his first post for yourself, there's no way that's moving the game forward or got some super secret intent. Really. Common sense is something I'm known for as a player, more people should apply it. Him also adding a layer of WiFoM by stating he wouldn't do this as scum (so he therefore must be town) seems dodgy too. His most recent post 125 indirectly implies that he's town, it looks like him giving reads but really this post doesn't hold much at all.

Seth, is looking really dodgy right now. Scum.

Now this is the first post where he shows his reasoning as to why he thinks that Seth is scum, which honestly doesn't really look like he is grasping at straws it he has good reasons for an early case.

I'm trying to lure scum to jump on the Murph lynch train, unfortunately the situation changed and turned against me, it's not for the bad though.
UNVOTE: Murph
I'm not surprised I'm at L-2 now, no one wants a person who hides information from town and suggests flash lynching with a lack of reasoning.
The reason I made that first post was to try to distinguish scum from town, how a scum and town would react to an odd doublevote post, this will be useful for me in the future.

This sounds really weak, and really feels like you trying to correct an earlier mistake to avoid pressure for it. Your spinning a wonderful narrative around you, except I'm afraid it has some flaws. That first post being a reaction test is absolute nonsense, it is obviously a RVS like any other. There is nothing significant about being the second player on an RVS wagon what so ever, nor did anyone react to you doing so thus "it being useful in the future" is utter crumpets as well. This sounds like your starting to trip yourself on the threads you've spun with lies. It's like exclaiming "you shall see the use of my actions in due time" after stealing someone's snack, it simply doesn't add up.

From what I've observed so far only the ppl who has made the analysis of scum so far are town.

Rarely will you see a scum make a long-ass detailed analysis post, though RedCoyote feels really off with his analysis, that's not what I expect from an experienced town player!

My first game as scum (and second game here) fully consisted of me spinning huge analysis walls wherever I could. Newer players that draw scum often have the issue that they try

too

hard, and they as such often trip as a result. RedCoyote has barely posted and since that post of his a lot of new information has arisen, he's null.

So what exactly are the specific results of your experiment?

The expirement will be worthless until the game is finished

Now then, logically speaking: if the experiment is useless until the end of the game why are you unable to explain what it is now? Experiments often take time before a conclusion can be drawn, however the methods used to draw a conclusion are known beforehand. Otherwise you're speaking crumpets as I suspect you are.

Ok let me ask you something more specific what did you mean in post 125 ? So are you just saying that everyone that had posted an analysis isn't scum period?

This is a newbie game, a game with the majority of players lacking experience, tell me the chances of a scum newbie making an analysis as detailed as wgeurts.
Raskol did say at one point that he loss the second newbie game because the scum was inactive and he only read the active posters and lynched all of them, who were all towns, let's apply that experience into this game, what if Hoppic and RedCoyote was the inactive scum?

The chances of a scum newbie making analysis as good as mine is small, however none of them have and I'm no newbie (neither is Rask or RC) so you've officially received no information as such. Congratulations. Keep making this stuff up.
The game's only just begun, way too short to start declaring people are lurkers.

It's not only luring people, it's to see how Murph would react to players voting him.

He continues to base his reads off of similar reasoning as his previous ones and doesn't contradict himself, he cites his own experience which I assume means something but isn't the be all end all

@Seth: Are you intentionally performing a Slayer's Gambit? If not, how does your experiment differ from said gambit?

What I'm doing is exactly Slayer's Gambit, interestingly enough I'm not yet aware of such an existing strategy until now.

Then you not yet being able to receive results is crumpets. You're contradicting yourself.

The whole deal with the Slayer's Gambit kind of turned me a little away from Wguerts, since it does make sense that he can't receive results until the end game because he needs to see how people flip and what their original reactions were to his test. At this point I think that Wgeurts is confbiased to the max

This is where Seth starts getting annoyed and begins to insult people which Wgeurts seems to take as an admission of defeat and anti town since he isn't scumhunting, however Seth goes OMGUS and attacks Wgeurts so nothing super helpful between their interactions as they are both confbiased.

Now Wgeurts goes into full death tunnel mode and starts hard making cases about him and pretty much ignores everything else. One thing I noticed was that he changes his mind about 3 times on the topic of a RC/Hoppic scum team where sometimes he thinks it's super legit and sometimes he thinks its not possible, and when it says it is possible he is still scum reading Seth hard so I am not sure about that

He also likes to say that he will post things than doesn't which annoys me because of the hype I get when he's like "I'm going to post a wall tommorow guys" than I don't get one.

His posts D2 don't sit well with me especially his seeming change of heart in his read list


Than we have Radiant who has posted 14 times but only 4 have been related to the game in a way other than saying he is town. He enters and there are 10 straight posts of him doing basiaclly nothing but saying "Hey guys I'm town but I don't have a lot of time to work on this but I'm town" Than he procedes to vote Coyote putting him at L-1 with reasons that I don't particularly agree with specifically that waiting till people are on isn't a scumtell its just that he wants to interact with people and we also already discuessed that slip he made (I still think its a slip too but he gave reasons why it wasn't) But than again Kal is iffy but away, Radiant's slot is iffy so he can't vote him so he might have just gone the easiest way, voting Coyote and taking a reason that had already been brought up and disucessed and adding another side one. He than cites that his meta saying he is apathetic in all games so its ok, which seems iffy to me but I have never played with you before excpet for one ongoing game where you are pretty in to it, but that might just be Ranger. For his last post I don't even know what is going on I can't tell what you are saying is obv scum because his point about you joining a game and than having no time to post is fully valid, if you can't fully contribute than don't join. His second sentence seems completely NAI since I can see both town and scum doing it so no idea what you thought was super scummy there.

TL;DR and final read
I am 80% sure at this point that Wgeurts is scum based on his degrading play spanning D1 and D2, where he grew some contradictions as well as Radiant's current play in the slot.

My current scum list is
1. Kal
2. Radiant
3. Coyote

I am keeping my vote on Kal because that is the lynch that I would like to see today but I am also going to be V/LA until Friday afternoon so you guys are going to have to discuss this next lynch together, I would like it if you guys went back and ISO'ed Wgeurts/Radiant and take a look around before any one hammers

Pedit: Hoppic try taking a look through Wgeurts/Radiant slot, it is probably scummier than you currently think

Yeah. I had a look back and I agree that he does seem scummy. But there are no votes on him at all and only two days left, so I'm not sure why you're mentioning it. I don't think we could get a vote up in time anyway.

[Hoppic]

Oh god what Have I done ignore all that entire above post

?

[Hoppic]

So you're really going to go through with it? You're really going to lynch your IC...?

Lol, jk. It's been fun, Hoppic. No hard feelings, my friend. Just, in the future, if you choose to stick around and continue with the website, remember that the easiest/safest/least-soul-searching choice is not necessarily the best one. I think deep down a part of you knows that you're taking the easy way out.

It's been fun playing with all of you guys. I really think all of you will make great scummers. I'll see y'all in post-game.

VOTE: redcoyote

Thanks! If you're town, I'm really sorry.

[Equinox]

VOTE COUNT 2.6

KaladinStormblessed (2) - AlpacaAlpaca, RedCoyote
AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Murph (0) -
Hoppic (0) -
Raskolnikov (0) -
RadiantCowbells (0) -
RedCoyote (4) - Raskolnikov, Murph, RadiantCowbells, Hoppic

Not Voting: KaladinStormblessed

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

Activity Notes: RadiantCowbells is on V/LA until June 14.
AlpacaAlpaca is on V/LA until June 17.
KaladinStormblessed is on V/LA until June 18.

Day 2 deadline is Thursday June 16th at 11:15 pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-06-16 23:15:00)

[Equinox]

RedCoyote,

Vanilla Townie

, was lynched.

Night 2 deadline is Friday, June 17th at 9pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-06-17 21:00:00)

[Equinox]

RadiantCowbells,

Vanilla Townie

, was killed Night 2!

VOTE COUNT 3.0

AlpacaAlpaca (0) -
Hoppic (0) -
KaladinStormblessed (0) -
Murph (0) -
Raskolnikov (0) -

Not Voting: AlpacaAlpaca, Hoppic, KaladinStormblessed, Murph, Raskolnikov

With 5 alive, it's 3 to lynch.

Activity Notes: AlpacaAlpaca is on V/LA until June 17.
KaladinStormblessed is on V/LA until June 18.

Day 3 deadline is Friday July 1st at 10:30 pm PDT which is in (expired on 2016-07-01 22:30:00)

[Hoppic]

I really don't know what to say, but I'm here. I'm town. Radiantcowbells was my top scum pick after yesterday, so yeah.

[Hoppic]

I'm kinda suspicious of alpaca, which probably means he's town. Kaladin is maybe scum. If Murphy is scum he's played really well, but now I'm thinking, he could be. I have a town read on raskolnikov, but that means nothing. My reads are completely useless.

[Hoppic]

But if one townie puts a vote on another townie, scum could jump on and the game's over so no townies should vote for now.

[KaladinStormblessed]

I'm gonna claim now.
I'm the jailkeeper.

[KaladinStormblessed]

That should <i>pretty much</i> confirm me as town, given that i I was lying, there would be a 5 in 6 chance someone would be able to call me out on it.

[KaladinStormblessed]

and dang it that's the wrong formating for this site.

[Hoppic]

That should <i>pretty much</i> confirm me as town, given that i I was lying, there would be a 5 in 6 chance someone would be able to call me out on it.

Who did you target each night and why?

[Hoppic]

Where did you get 5/6 from?

[AlpacaAlpaca]

I assume he was counting everyone but himself.
On another note remaining players are
Kal - Claimed JK (Basically conftown unless someone counter claims)
Alpaca
Murph
Hoppic
Rask
and 2 of these are scum. I am tossing all of my reads out the window since I have been scum reading Kal, null on Hoppic, and town on Murph and Rask but clearly I was wrong about a lot of my reads this game and Kal's claim has shaken up my reads a lot so I will be rereading the game which I will have all the time to do on monday so I will need to wait until than to get a ton of time.

Also jsut to confirm if we mislynch here is it game over?

[KaladinStormblessed]

Targeted rask twice cause I felt like he was vocal enough, and I had a town read on him, to make him a decent target.
The 5/6 is cause the matrix set up. 1 row or column is used so 6 possible columns and only one where jk is only role. So 5/6 that there'd be someone with a different role (really only 4/6 that would prove me wrong).
And if we mislynch it would leave 1 town and 2 scum tomorrow, a loss. Also if we no lynch than they'll night kill to have it even town to scum making it inevitable and a loss. We have to lynch a scum today. Now if someone mis - votes then scum can hope on to the vote and we lose. So not including any reads - if we were to vote randomly (which we won't but stating the statistics of this)- there's a 50-50 chance we'll get a scum, because I'm the only confirmed town.

[AlpacaAlpaca]

I totally forgot the chart but looking back at it we are either rolling with
Just a JK
JK, Scum Roleblocker, 1-shot BP

So if there is a BP they should probs claim right now because if we have 2 conf town than we only have a pool of 3 people which means we have a 2/3 chance of getting scum. Since if we mislynch its game over as Kal nicely laid out

[Hoppic]

If you're jailkeeper, then there's two scenarios possible: one where there is another town role that could confirm you, and one where there isn't. If you're lying, then there's someone who could counterclaim you in every scenario; so there's 100% chance of you being caught out lying if you are.

[KaladinStormblessed]

Murphys and rask need to get in here.
But yeah, that's the long and short of it, I cannot be lying because I'd get called out on it, and so that leaves the list being Murph, Rask, Alpaca and hoppic. My reads before today would have me going scumiest to least scum/more town: murph hoppic alpaca, rask. But I'm rethinking that, want to reread and will be able to do so soon. Purely looking at today's posts you two are seeming town but need to be very cautious today.
Btw well it'd be nice if we had a BP, I have a feeling we don't and if we did I'd rather they didn't claim, cause I feel like there isn't and a scum could ride a fake claim on it for the win, so I'd really not want to see a BP claim today.

[AlpacaAlpaca]

@mod - are people notified if they are roleblocked [\b]

[AlpacaAlpaca]

@mod - are people notified if they are roleblocked

[Raskolnikov]

I'm back.
I was 100% sure it was RC/kala after that flip and I was planning on voting RC right from day start and forcing 1v1. Red/radiant HAD to be 1s1t and (I was paranoid it was 2s before the flip) and this NK actually saved this game.

[Raskolnikov]

(not ccing Kala)
Hoppic murph alpaca were all townreads but murph always had that weirdness about him that made it never quite as strong.
In retrospect I was probably dismissive of alpaca and pidgeonholed him into the cautious-newbie type but I think it might have been some underestimation and he's potentially deliberately IIoA (giving pro-town analysis and thoughts over hard stances/committal).
Hoppic's probably my strongest townread just from today and yesterday and I feel better about it than the others since he actually does things and gets invested into them so I feel commitment and a bit of emotion there whereas murph alpaca have been kind of flat/monotone.

But that's just impressions from today and memory of earlier, I have to reread (especially alpaca who I've completely ignored).