Newbie 1713 (Game Over)

[Chip Butty]

I just remembered my vote is still on Cakez.

I think though that Arak's information, if backed up by the non-appearance of CCs, does point at Inspector. There were seven Town and one scum heading into N1, so scum had 1/7 chance of hitting a BP. But we know 100% that Inspector was jailed.

[Chip Butty]

I'm going to assume Arak's claim was genuine and
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Inspector

[Chip Butty]

I still think, if Inspector survives today, Arak should jail him again. If he is scum, then he can't NK, and he can be lynched tomorrow. If he isn't scum, I guess Arak gets NKed and someone (prob me) has been lynched, and the JK has been outed (and consequently killed) for nothing.

[Wirt]

Chip, that is not how probability works.

[Wirt]

@Everyne else

Lynching Chip here is always better. Hell, even Cakez. Dont hammer, I'll explain.

[Wirt]

I just remembered my vote is still on Cakez.

I think though that Arak's information, if backed up by the non-appearance of CCs, does point at Inspector. There were seven Town and one scum heading into N1, so scum had 1/7 chance of hitting a BP. But we know 100% that Inspector was jailed.

First, this is factually incorrect, because Arak is a Jailkeeper, thus should be left out of the equation. 1/6. Then, you have the fact inspector basically claimed VT (he's not claiming BP to confirm himself); that combined with the fact inspector was a downright nonsensical choice for a kill target make that a 1/5 chance to hit the BP, purely math speaking.

Secondly, lynching anyone other than inspector is the better option. For the following scenario, for the sake of simplicity (I say this a lot): CK and Huntress are confirmed town, and I am unconfirmed (because this is you guys' PoV).

1. We lynch inspector.
   If inspector flips town, Arak has to risk a 1/4 chance to jail scum [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt]. Scum will always attack Arak here, thus they have a 3/4 chance of dying.
   After Arak dies, we're at 5v1 with four scum suspects, and two lynches to sort them out.
   
2. We lynch [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt], they flip town.
   Arak clearly jails Inspector again. Scum is forced to either kill someone (this someone is 99.999% always Arak) and thus confirm inspector!Town, or they can nokill and hope for an inspector mislynch.
   However, if inspector IS mislynched the following day (D3) after scum nokilled, Arak's chance of catching scum has gone up to 1/3, and the chances of dying have gone down to 2/3. Even if Arak dies N3, we enter D4 with 4v1, BUT an extra less person in the suspect list, meaning we have two lynches for three players (1/3 and 1/2 respectively). That's more optimal, should it ever go down that way. And if the BP happens to be in the alive suspect list,
   we win so long as they claim before MyLo (so, as long as they claim D4).

This roadmap completely ignores Arak saying "I'll jail X" because scum could attempt to ride out the WIFOM route.

[Alexcellent]

The thing I dislike about that plan is that Arak will almost surely be killed tonight if scum isn't in Inspector/Chip. That would imply scum is in Wirt/Cakez/me, which it could well be. But I'm not prepared to give Huntress and Cariad a full town clear for the entire game.

Right now on D2, I'm fine with saying that they're probs town. But they aren't confirmed. If I found myself in a MyLo situation with one or both of them, then I'd have to treat them as potential scum.
I think that plan only works if we're prepared to 100% clear them as town for the entire game. Even then, I think it's still possible for scum to win. Hard but possible.

[Alexcellent]

This isn't me saying that I suspect Cariad or Huntress by the way. It's very unlikely that they're scum. But they aren't confirmed town and we shouldn't treat them as though they are.

[Alexcellent]

I think I'd prefer to lynch Inspector today. I find it highly unlikely that he was the N1 kill target when basically ANYONE on Charloux's wagon would have been a much better kill.

And I think this reeks:

In that case

Arak would be retarded scum if he claimed jk now
Did u really jail me? Wow
VOTE: chip

Lets see your defense. Arak has made a lot of posts that really made me doubt about you lately, but this is convenient i guess.

L-1! WAIT FOR CLAIM!!!
Proceed with caution! But proceed nonetheless.

It feels like "Oh shit, I've been busted, time to join the biggest wagon without question". I feel like town Inspector at least stops to consider the implications of him being jailed, who could have targeted him for the NK. Not just blindly follow Arak and jump on the Chip wagon.

[Alexcellent]

UNVOTE: Wirt
VOTE: Inspector

[Alexcellent]

Like, seriously. What lone scum looks at this list

Final Vote Count of Day 1

SirCakez [2] - Wirt, inspectorscout

Charloux [5] - Foxbird, Huntress, Chip Butty, arak-and-skhug, Charloux

inspectorscout [2] - SirCakez, Alexcellent

Not Voting: No one

5 to lynch

And says "yep, I think Inspector's the man to kill here." It also kiiiind of explains Charloux's self hammer. It looked like either he or Inspector would get lynched and maybe he felt like he was taking one for the team?

[Alexcellent]

Although actually I keep forgetting the BP's existence. Maybe I need to mull it over more.

[Alexcellent]

So possibilities:

Arak jails Inspector, Inspector is scum, night kill doesn't happen.
Arak jails Inspector, who was to be targeted for the night kill, Inspector is protected. Pretty unlikely.
Arak jails Inspector, who is town. Scum targets elsewhere, hits the BP, thus night kill doesn't happen.

I guess it depends on if we think Arak jailed scum, or if scum targeted BP.

The more I think about it, I guess Wirt's plan isn't terrible. Although would lynching Inspector and jailing Chip really be any different?

[Huntress]

The only one who hasn't posted since arak claimed is Cariad, and I'd rather the Day not end before we have a reaction to the claim from that slot, whether from Cariad or another replacement.

If Inspector isn't scum, then whoever is scum already knows who the BP is (discounting the unlikely scenarios of a no-kill or of Inspector being the target), so I think it would make sense for the BP to claim after the Fox/Cariad slot has commented on the claim.

The momentum was definitely with his wagon, and it was patently clear he was going to get lynched. He only needed two more votes.

It wasn't patently clear at all. MidDay wagons often don't go to lynch. Particularly on Day one.

So when would the payoff come, exactly?

The payoff would come if one of you were lynched later as the distancing would affect people's reads.

It also kiiiind of explains Charloux's self hammer. It looked like either he or Inspector would get lynched and maybe he felt like he was taking one for the team?

Except that he was roleblocker so it would make more sense to let Inspector get lynched.

[Chip Butty]

First, this is factually incorrect, because Arak is a Jailkeeper, thus should be left out of the equation. 1/6. Then, you have the fact inspector basically claimed VT (he's not claiming BP to confirm himself); that combined with the fact inspector was a downright nonsensical choice for a kill target make that a 1/5 chance to hit the BP, purely math speaking.

Wait, maybe I am being thick here (and yes, my probability-based posts haven't been too flash), but why does Arak get ruled out just because he is JK? From the lone scum's POV, he's still a potential target N1, right?

Also, once you introduce this kind of thing: "combined with the fact inspector was a downright nonsensical choice for a kill target", you are no longer speaking from the POV of "pure math". But I do agree that it is sensible to not count Inspector as a potential target, so okay 1/6 (I think Arak remains).

I made some posts earlier presenting a case for lynching Inspector before me on purely probabilistic grounds - flawed probabilistic grounds, as Wirt has since convinced me - but I didn't intend the implication that ONLY probabilistic arguements count here. I think Wirt is doing a fine job of working the probability angle, but if his calculations lead to the result that I ought to be lynched today, I feel compelled to differ. The thing is, I have additional information, in that I know 100% I am Town. My mission, should I choose to accept it, is to convince Wirt and you others of that. As someone has pointed out, if we mislynch today, Arak dies, and - while we have had our differences - that would obviously be quite bad for Town. So, please, take the probability-based arguments into account, but don't let them be the

only

input for your voting decision (not that I think anyone but Wirt is in danger of doing that..

[Chip Butty]

So when would the payoff come, exactly?

The payoff would come if one of you were lynched later as the distancing would affect people's reads.

So that payoff would come to anyone who was on the Charl wagon, right? You and CK (Fox), as well as me?

One thing that I guess has more-or-less been established, though - Charl didn't self-hammer as a result of being bussed by Arak. I guess he was just frustrated at being caught out.

[Chip Butty]

If Inspector isn't scum, then whoever is scum already knows who the BP is (discounting the unlikely scenarios of a no-kill or of Inspector being the target), so I think it would make sense for the BP to claim after the Fox/Cariad slot has commented on the claim.

Also, if Inspector isn't scum, the BP is effectively VT now anyway, since it is a 1-shot.

[inspectorscout]

Arak is left out because, if he was the NK-target, he would have been dead already. That's why.
Huntress said what I wanted to say; why would the roleblocker of the team sacrifice himself?

Also, chip: what's up with all your AtE? Your 'mission' is not to convince us that you are town, that is scum's mission; your mission is to be town. Assuming arak didn't fakeclaim (and I think he isn't) you aren't even a power role. (Because I know that I'm town, so most likely the BP took the hit and is no longer a BP) Why try to get me down anyhow?

Oh and arak, if you jail the right person, we have 2 conf townies, not going to say who since wifom though.

Pedit: dammit huntress

[inspectorscout]

Uh i mean chip lol

[Huntress]

Also, if Inspector isn't scum, the BP is effectively VT now anyway, since it is a 1-shot.

Once the BP's shot is used up they become effectively a Named Townie. Which means they still have an effect on the game.

Oh and arak, if you jail the right person, we have 2 conf townies, not going to say who since wifom though.

No, because we wouldn't know which night the BP was targeted. Unless you mean something else?

[Chip Butty]

Arak is left out because, if he was the NK-target, he would have been dead already. That's why.
Huntress said what I wanted to say; why would the roleblocker of the team sacrifice himself?

Also, chip: what's up with all your AtE? Your 'mission' is not to convince us that you are town, that is scum's mission; your mission is to be town. Assuming arak didn't fakeclaim (and I think he isn't) you aren't even a power role. (Because I know that I'm town, so most likely the BP took the hit and is no longer a BP) Why try to get me down anyhow?

Oh and arak, if you jail the right person, we have 2 conf townies, not going to say who since wifom though.

Pedit: dammit huntress

Yeah, we know now that Arak is JK. But when scum!not-Inspector took the shot, he didn't know that. All he knew is that there were seven Towns, including one BP. Looking at it from his POV, he had one chance in seven of hitting that BP - one chance in six if he bought that Inspector is VT and rules him out as a target.

My mission is to be Town, but ALSO to convince you all that I am Town. Same goes for any Town in any game, since it doesn't help Town if someone gets mislynched. But more so in this game, because despite the 7/1 margin, there are several candidates for remaining scum, so we don't have many mislynches to burn.

I'm not trying to get you down - as I said, I'm finding it hard to get my head around the idea that you are scum, but you WERE jailed last night. But Wirt seems to be saying - and he has convinced me, I think - that that doesn't mean you are the most probable to be scum, so I am prepared to rethink that.

I would like everyone to ISO Huntress with an open mind, particularly her D2 posts. I know we have all been somewhat trying to simplify by narrowing the pool of likely scum to me, Inspector, Arak (before he outed himself), and Cakez, but Huntress is persistently filtering everything through anti-Chip goggles, and has been for a while. It could well be that she is just sitting back and chuckling as we argue over which order to lynch through me, Inspector, and Cakez. I'm not drawing any firm conclusions yet, but at least go back and look at that D2 ISO.

[Chip Butty]

Also, if Inspector isn't scum, the BP is effectively VT now anyway, since it is a 1-shot.

Once the BP's shot is used up they become effectively a Named Townie. Which means they still have an effect on the game.

Sure. I'm agreeing with you; after we hear from CK, they should claim.

[Chip Butty]

My mission is to be Town, but ALSO to convince you all that I am Town. Same goes for any Town in any game, since it doesn't help Town if someone gets mislynched. But more so in this game, because despite the 7/1 margin, there are several candidates for remaining scum, so we don't have many mislynches to burn.

Further to this, since I want to be clear that I understand what you are saying: Sometimes, it is enough just to BE Town - by actively scumhunting. And, sometimes, as with me in this game, that isn't enough. Despite having played a prominent role in getting Charl lynched, thos eon my wagon are reading me as scum. So, now my mission is NOT ONLY to scumhunt, but also to convince you all I am Town so as to avoid a mislynch. Obviously, events CAN be interpreted as they choose to interpret them, but there are more straightforward cases to be made. Huntress is an IC, with lots of experience, so she must realize this, and that is why I am now looking slightly askance at her. Arak on the other hand, is relatively inexperienced - he himself admitted this is his first PR - and I think he is just misguided (also, obviously he isn't scum, since we have heard from all but one since his hardclaim, and there have been no CCs).

[SirCakez]

If we're going to not lynch inspector and let Arak jail him again (which is a good plan) then I want a Wirt lynch

@TTH - V/LA until July 4

[inspectorscout]

Oh and arak, if you jail the right person, we have 2 conf townies, not going to say who since wifom though.

No, because we wouldn't know which night the BP was targeted. Unless you mean something else?

Yes, but I'll reveal D3. I cant tell now cuz wifom.