Newbie 1713 (Game Over)

[inspectorscout]

Well, nvm. Arak probably doesn't get what I mean so it's best when he jails me instead of one of the 7 other possibilities.

I wanted to ask cakez ''why wirt'' but hes v/la so lol

[SirCakez]

I'm still here, V/LA just means I'll be checking in less often.
Wirt because of terrible associations around the Charl lynch day 1 mainly

[Wirt]

Although would lynching Inspector and jailing Chip really be any different?

Yes it would, I've even outlined this. And yeah, I get it they (CK + Huntress) aren't 100000% confirmed town, but I did say it was for the sake of simplicity-- the odds of nailing scum would be different if we added them as variables, but it wouldn't change the fact their proportions compared to each other are still about the same (kind of like how 50% and 25% are as equivalent as 12,5% and 6,25% are). Also, D4 wouldn't be MyLo in the second scenario I present on 630, there'd still be D5 for a lynch afterwards. Either CK/Huntress would likely be dead at that point, if not both. Plus that very degree of likelyhood of being town alone makes them a good night target.

Wait, maybe I am being thick here (and yes, my probability-based posts haven't been too flash), but why does Arak get ruled out just because he is JK? From the lone scum's POV, he's still a potential target N1, right?

I have no idea honestly, it just doesn't sound like it makes a lot of sense to account the impossibility, since Arak is alive.

I'm still here, V/LA just means I'll be checking in less often.
Wirt because of terrible associations around the Charl lynch day 1 mainly

Kreygasm

[Wirt]

So, please, take the probability-based arguments into account, but don't let them be the

only

input for your voting decision (not that I think anyone but Wirt is in danger of doing that..

I just remembered my vote is still on Cakez.

I think though that Arak's information, if backed up by the non-appearance of CCs, does point at Inspector. There were seven Town and one scum heading into N1, so scum had 1/7 chance of hitting a BP. But we know 100% that Inspector was jailed.

I'm going to assume Arak's claim was genuine and
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Inspector

You were bargaining on Cakez being scum up until now, and inspector was just BARELY in your scumradar. Tell me Chip, are you a natural hypocrite, or just scum?

[Chip Butty]

Neither. What has changed is that Arak has hardclaimed and said he jailed Inspector. I was suspicious of Cakez before that occurred. There seems to be some agreement that it is unlikely that Inspector was the NK target on N1. That leaves two plausible explanations:

1. Inspector is scum and there was no NK because he was jailed, OR

2. NK hit the BP (1/7 or 1/6 chance).

Since the prob of Option 2 is low, and there are really only two options on the table, I'm inclined to go for Option 1.

[Chip Butty]

*"...two plausible explanations

for the no-kill on N1

" ^

[Wirt]

Why are you inclined towards it then? You've just stated in 639 that probability shouldn't be the sole voting factor, yet you choose to deliberately ignore your scumread on Cakez and townread on inspector. You've expressed a bunch of confidence towards those, as well.

[Chip Butty]

Wirt, do you agree with my #654 or not?

[Chip Butty]

Why are you inclined towards it then? You've just stated in 639 that probability shouldn't be the sole voting factor, yet you choose to deliberately ignore your scumread on Cakez and townread on inspector. You've expressed a bunch of confidence towards those, as well.

My so-called "townread" on Inspector was mainly gut and I certainly hadn't cleared him. And, as I just said, those reads came before Arak's claim and disclosure that he had jailed Inspector.

And now that I see it in this light: 2 options, and one has a 1/7 or 1/6 chance of being right, it makes me inclined to choose the other option.

Tell me, Wirt: What is scum.me's motivation in trying to lynch Inspector rather than Cakez, given that there is just one scum left?

[Chip Butty]

I mean, I say it right here when I change my vote that it was as a result of the new info from Arak.

I just remembered my vote is still on Cakez.

I think though that Arak's information, if backed up by the non-appearance of CCs, does point at Inspector. There were seven Town and one scum heading into N1, so scum had 1/7 chance of hitting a BP. But we know 100% that Inspector was jailed.

[Chip Butty]

Secondly, lynching anyone other than inspector is the better option. For the following scenario, for the sake of simplicity (I say this a lot): CK and Huntress are confirmed town, and I am unconfirmed (because this is you guys' PoV).

1. We lynch inspector.
   If inspector flips town, Arak has to risk a 1/4 chance to jail scum [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt]. Scum will always attack Arak here, thus they have a 3/4 chance of dying.
   After Arak dies, we're at 5v1 with four scum suspects, and two lynches to sort them out.
   
2. We lynch [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt], they flip town.
   Arak clearly jails Inspector again. Scum is forced to either kill someone (this someone is 99.999% always Arak) and thus confirm inspector!Town, or they can nokill and hope for an inspector mislynch.
   However, if inspector IS mislynched the following day (D3) after scum nokilled, Arak's chance of catching scum has gone up to 1/3, and the chances of dying have gone down to 2/3. Even if Arak dies N3, we enter D4 with 4v1, BUT an extra less person in the suspect list, meaning we have two lynches for three players (1/3 and 1/2 respectively). That's more optimal, should it ever go down that way. And if the BP happens to be in the alive suspect list,
   we win so long as they claim before MyLo (so, as long as they claim D4).

This analysis seems incomplete to me, and incorrect as a consequence. In scenario 2 "Lynch [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt]", Wirt mentions two possibilities for N2after the lynchee flips Town: (1) Scum kills Arak ("99.999%" sure); and (2) No-kill. He then goes and analyzes option 2 (No-kill), but neglects to analyze option 1 (Arak NKed N2), and thus reaches incorrect results.

[Cariad_Kobold]

Prod pickup. Truck broke down and sitting in shop. I will be on in a little bit

[Wirt]

Secondly, lynching anyone other than inspector is the better option. For the following scenario, for the sake of simplicity (I say this a lot): CK and Huntress are confirmed town, and I am unconfirmed (because this is you guys' PoV).

1. We lynch inspector.
   If inspector flips town, Arak has to risk a 1/4 chance to jail scum [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt]. Scum will always attack Arak here, thus they have a 3/4 chance of dying.
   After Arak dies, we're at 5v1 with four scum suspects, and two lynches to sort them out.
   
2. We lynch [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt], they flip town.
   Arak clearly jails Inspector again. Scum is forced to either kill someone (this someone is 99.999% always Arak) and thus confirm inspector!Town, or they can nokill and hope for an inspector mislynch.
   However, if inspector IS mislynched the following day (D3) after scum nokilled, Arak's chance of catching scum has gone up to 1/3, and the chances of dying have gone down to 2/3. Even if Arak dies N3, we enter D4 with 4v1, BUT an extra less person in the suspect list, meaning we have two lynches for three players (1/3 and 1/2 respectively). That's more optimal, should it ever go down that way. And if the BP happens to be in the alive suspect list,
   we win so long as they claim before MyLo (so, as long as they claim D4).

This analysis seems incomplete to me, and incorrect as a consequence. In scenario 2 "Lynch [Chip, Alex, Cakez, Wirt]", Wirt mentions two possibilities for N2after the lynchee flips Town: (1) Scum kills Arak ("99.999%" sure); and (2) No-kill. He then goes and analyzes option 2 (No-kill), but neglects to analyze option 1 (Arak NKed N2), and thus reaches incorrect results.

Okay. It's 7v1 right now. We lynch between those four, get a town flip (6v1), Arak jails inspector again and scum kill them, confirming inspector. It's D3, we're at 5v1, with inspector confirmed. In the other case, we were at 6v1 by D3, but because inspector is confirmed, it means we're not guaranteed to mislynch. It's as if we entered D4 of the other scenario, but with an extra named townie (inspector) for at least a day. And like in the scenario where scum nokills, we still have two lynches to sort out of three players. (Again, this is all assuming Inspector/CK/Huntress!Town)

Why are you inclined towards it then? You've just stated in 639 that probability shouldn't be the sole voting factor, yet you choose to deliberately ignore your scumread on Cakez and townread on inspector. You've expressed a bunch of confidence towards those, as well.

My so-called "townread" on Inspector was mainly gut and I certainly hadn't cleared him. And, as I just said, those reads came before Arak's claim and disclosure that he had jailed Inspector.

And now that I see it in this light: 2 options, and one has a 1/7 or 1/6 chance of being right, it makes me inclined to choose the other option.

Tell me, Wirt: What is scum.me's motivation in trying to lynch Inspector rather than Cakez, given that there is just one scum left?

See, your read on inspector has been ever-changing across today. Initially you had him around nulltown/slight town at 409, then he's slighty downgraded at 456, then suddenly he's more likely to be town (504, 531) than not. You were also attributing him townpoints (431) for his suggestion to lynch between him and arak consecutively, and that you're not really seeing it on him, despite getting a "town vibe" (528), while on the same post you point out his interactions with the dead scum were problematic and he had an early scummy play, and you also said you were getting scummy vibes from him (428). I'd say you're certainly "getting" a lot of vibes here, but which ones are it? I looked over the ISO you made on him, and it was inconclusive; perchance you might say it was because it's unfinished, but what you did say did not resonate on a specific direction: Part one (420) basically says "Inspector did a bunch of NAI things, I don't think much of anything here", part two (421) is a step towards scumreading inspector for his more casual reply to charloux and having non-comittal reads, whereas part three 474 that same lack of commitment is no longer indicating scum but rather regular behavior from inspector, thus basically denying half of part two's argumentation for a inspector!scum. There isn't a part four, thus we are left without conclusive thoughts. One question remains, still: What about inspector does spell town to you, and what spells scum? Do tell. I think this entire paragraph is a good enough answer to the "Why wouldn't I just ISO inspector, if I were scum?": to buy time. Delay long enough so that the analysis can be shifted to suit/support whatever else push is being done at the time, yet make it half-assed enough that it leads nowhere.

Chip!Scum's motivation is simple-- Inspector is the lynch which will always be met with the less resistance. Excusing away with math and probability is a surefire way to get a mislynch off, while accurately building a case on Cakez would be more troublesome, at least today. Not only that, but as I attempted to explain in 630, scum WANTS inspector to die first, as there's a bigger number of players to sort through. Plus, your push on Cakez so far has been basically meta and calling his reactions exaggerated; hanging inspector first would grant time to fabricate something against him.

[TellTaleHeart]

Vote Count 2.10

inspectorscout [3] - SirCakez, Chip Butty, Alexcellent
Chip Butty [4] - Huntress, arak-and-skhug, Cariad_Kobold, inspectorscout
SirCakez [1] - Wirt

Not Voting: No one

SirCakez is LA until July 4.

5 to lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2016-06-20 12:55:37)

[inspectorscout]

Well wirt, that's all nice and stuff but we have a day left to lynch. Are you going to ITH? (Not saying we should rush but we should get stuff done anyway)

[Chip Butty]

Chip!Scum's motivation is simple-- Inspector is the lynch which will always be met with the less resistance.

First, that could only be true if others were finding Inspector the most scummy player. Second, you are making the same mistake (?) that Huntress is: You are appling exclusively to me arguments that also apply to others.

Excusing away with math and probability is a surefire way to get a mislynch off, while accurately building a case on Cakez would be more troublesome, at least today.

But you are the one using math a prob a lot more than me. There is a saying "If you can't blind them with science, baffle then with bullshit", and there have been enough holes in your analyzes to make it possible you are doing the latter.

Not only that, but as I attempted to explain in 630, scum WANTS inspector to die first, as there's a bigger number of players to sort through.

That only makes sense if Inspector isn't a suspect, but he totally is. Since he IS a suspect, lynching him reduces the number of players to sort through.

Plus, your push on Cakez so far has been basically meta and calling his reactions exaggerated; hanging inspector first would grant time to fabricate something against him.

It was hardly a "push" on Cakes. I presented some observations about meta based on Open 640, and was careful to point out they were only observations. And his reactions WERE a bit stronger than I would have expected from that.

You say I have vacillated on Inspector today. Yes, totally, because we have a number of suspects who are all looking about the same to outside observers, and I am not tunneling on anyone. I thought it was Arak, now it isn't, so I'm looking at Inspector and Cakez primarily, but glancing from time to time at Huntress and maybe even you, recently. My gut was telling em Inspector is okay, but given that the odds of the BP being hit last night were, let's say, 1/6, I'm going to go with that, I think.

If you think that is inconsistent, consider this: When I read your analyzes, my eyes start to glaze over - you need a way to make them punchier, to sell them. Mine. on th eother hand, is crystal clear and short and to the point:

Two real possibiities: BP got hit (1/6 inchance), or Inspector is scum.

[Chip Butty]

Neither. What has changed is that Arak has hardclaimed and said he jailed Inspector. I was suspicious of Cakez before that occurred. There seems to be some agreement that it is unlikely that Inspector was the NK target on N1. That leaves two plausible explanations:

1. Inspector is scum and there was no NK because he was jailed, OR

2. NK hit the BP (1/7 or 1/6 chance).

Since the prob of Option 2 is low, and there are really only two options on the table, I'm inclined to go for Option 1.

Wirt, do you agree with my #654 or not?

Wirt, how about you stop with the dense paras of text - it's too easy to slip in some BS with those - and asnwer this simple question?

[Chip Butty]

Incidentally, CK is taking us close to deadline and hasn't posted anything substantial in ages, despite promising to do that. That might be down to RL or whatever, but it also could be a scum tactic to sneak through the day under the radar.

[Chip Butty]

Just reminding everyone, I am at

L-1

.

@Mod: I think, traditionally, Mods mark the current frontrunner in VCs with "L-x", and I just realized you haven't been doing that. Please consider doing so.

[SirCakez]

Chip here's what's confuzzling me.
You had inspector as a strong enough townread to compare to a completed game where I had town at the bottom of my list.
But now you're voting him and have him as a top scumread?
It doesn't add up. I think you're town so work with me here.

[Chip Butty]

Cakez: With Inspector, I'm sort of conflicted in a gut-vs-head kind of way. My gut tells me Town, but the logic of my #654 seems compelliing to me ATM, hence the vote. The other half of the equation is that - and I have mentioned this before - when Open 640 ended, I realized I prob can't pick your scum game and I became a bit paranoid about it - voting you might have been going a bit too far on what I had presented at that point, but I guess paranoi and tiredness can have that effect. Nevertheless, if not for the stuff in #654 I would still be looking pretty hard at you, I think.

As for the others:
I was quietly worried about Alex for a while but he is loking Townier recently, imo.
CK's absence this close to deadline worries me. Compounding that, Fox cited anxiety as a reason for replacing out, and it MIGHT be that a scum role would be more stressful than a Town one. I'm not going to read much into that, but if there turns out to be stronger reasosn to suspect that slot, I'll bear it in mind.
I've gone through most of the game thinking Huntress is Town, but recently she seems to view everything through anti-Chip goggles, which worries me. Remeber she is an IC in a game of Newbies. Do the d2 ISO of her,and you will see her picking at Chip posts, almost to the exclusion of all else. And at least some of the points she raises against me could equally apply to others. So, prob nullTown ATM, but will continue to keep my eye on her (presuming I am alive, of course).
Arak: Town, but outed himself way too early, imo, given in-game discussions of PR strategy. I'll deal with his latest round of accusions against me in a separate post.
Wirt: have read him as Town pretty much since I entered the game. Still Town, but a little doubt has crept in, in that his analyses seems geared to steer the vote away from Inspector and onto me, but seem flawed to me in the light of my #654.

Feel free to ask for further clarification, everyone.

[Chip Butty]

Speaking of my 654, does anyone want to stand up and say it is wrong? And give reasons? Because if there are two explanations for the no-kill N2 on the table, and the prob of one of them occurring is 1/6, the other one looks pretty good to me...

[TellTaleHeart]

Just reminding everyone, I am at

L-1

.

@Mod: I think, traditionally, Mods mark the current frontrunner in VCs with "L-x", and I just realized you haven't been doing that. Please consider doing so.

I haven't, but I'll start doing it. :3

[Wirt]

Chip!Scum's motivation is simple-- Inspector is the lynch which will always be met with the less resistance.

First, that could only be true if others were finding Inspector the most scummy player. Second, you are making the same mistake (?) that Huntress is: You are appling exclusively to me arguments that also apply to others.

Not really. It's definitely the lynch that meets less resistance-- besides yours-- right now, just look at the current votecount. And even then, Arak and Huntress are both banking enough amount of suspicion on him that they said would vote inspector the next day, and CK had them already at null before Arak's claim, so it shouldn't be too difficult to garner at least one vote from the three. There's also me- You're clearly trying to swing my vote towards him, so that's really just a faulty rebuttal from you. As for your second point, you seem to forget I'm applying that logic to you because YOU ASKED ME to do it in 658.

Excusing away with math and probability is a surefire way to get a mislynch off, while accurately building a case on Cakez would be more troublesome, at least today.

But you are the one using math a prob a lot more than me. There is a saying "If you can't blind them with science, baffle then with bullshit", and there have been enough holes in your analyzes to make it possible you are doing the latter.

Except it's a matter of EFFORT. I'm actively using math to prove blindly wagoning inspector solely because of probability is unreasonable, whereas you have done just that- jumped on the wagon without thinking twice.

Not only that, but as I attempted to explain in 630, scum WANTS inspector to die first, as there's a bigger number of players to sort through.

That only makes sense if Inspector isn't a suspect, but he totally is. Since he IS a suspect, lynching him reduces the number of players to sort through.

First, I've been assuming inspector is town this entire time because of my read on him.
Second, even if you DON'T think inspector is town, and that he is totally a suspect, scenario 1 gives us three lynches and five suspects (including inspector), where scenario 2 gives us either a confirmed town (inspector) and three lynches between four suspects, or four lynches between five suspects (including inspector). How are the two scenario 2s worse?

Plus, your push on Cakez so far has been basically meta and calling his reactions exaggerated; hanging inspector first would grant time to fabricate something against him.

It was hardly a "push" on Cakes. I presented some observations about meta based on Open 640, and was careful to point out they were only observations. And his reactions WERE a bit stronger than I would have expected from that.

It WAS definitely a push of sorts, since it warranted your vote (548), and you argued it wasn't news either as of 553. You've been saying Cakez "has been in your radar" for a while now, but it has all been left very vague ("Plus there are a few things he has said", "I've been looking at Cakez' ISO"), and considering how you've even said it more than once that you'd lynch Cakez before Arak because of his PR soft, you CLEARLY had good enough reason to believe he was the best lynch-- despite the only points really brought up from you being meta, namely game 640. The closest to factual analysis on his behavior THIS game was on 581 (and even then the comparison was drawn mostly by meta) and 168 (which was a single post from early RVS, thus not of enough amount).

You say I have vacillated on Inspector today. Yes, totally, because we have a number of suspects who are all looking about the same to outside observers, and I am not tunneling on anyone. I thought it was Arak, now it isn't, so I'm looking at Inspector and Cakez primarily, but glancing from time to time at Huntress and maybe even you, recently. My gut was telling em Inspector is okay, but given that the odds of the BP being hit last night were, let's say, 1/6, I'm going to go with that, I think.

See, when I presented my Cakez ISO, I at least had something going foward with it: I thought there was a good chance for him to be scum, and proceeded to vote him. Whereas you have all been over the place with inspector: All three parts nullread, scumread, and townread him respectively. You never leave a note as to what you made of his actions further than the individual points, so it's all kind of bland.

Since this seems to be going in circles, at least try to pinpoint WHY you gutread him as town beforehand. What posts has he made that led to the conclusion?

If you think that is inconsistent, consider this: When I read your analyzes, my eyes start to glaze over - you need a way to make them punchier, to sell them. Mine. on th eother hand, is crystal clear and short and to the point:

Two real possibiities: BP got hit (1/6 inchance), or Inspector is scum.

This IS just my natural writing style - sorry you don't like it, but I am not going to change it just for you.

Wirt, how about you stop with the dense paras of text - it's too easy to slip in some BS with those - and asnwer this simple question?

You do realize the odds of inspector being scum are always 1/7, while the odds of BP being hit are either that or LOWER, right? No I don't agree with 654.

[Wirt]

Either that or HIGHER*