In post 2319, Dunnstral wrote:In case xyzzy is town and I die tonight, you should lynch jaack then tool in that order
In post 2394, xyzzy wrote:I think either a Jaack or toolenduso lynch would provide worthwhile info, but I think I'm leaving more towards toolenduso now.
VOTE: toolenduso
In post 2439, Jaack wrote:Trying to lynch tool d4 was the hardest path tyler could have taken (I guess aside from a tof lynch or something dumb). Tool had also been mostly an ally up to that point, so it seems odd for scum to break that peace.
VOTE: toolenduso
But I can see I'm pretty dead today anyway, so this is mostly for posterity.
I don't really know where to begin, I guess. I've been wrong about so much stuff. Pretty much every time I've looked at Tyler as a scum possibility vs somebody else, I've come away from it thinking Tyler was town.
One thing I know has been happening now is that Tyler has definitely been looking for ways to remove me from the game for a while. I don't know if he was trying to get me out before LyLo or just getting ready to get me lynched in LyLo, but I can see where Tyler was planning to get me lynched at some point. Just going back a ways through his ISO:
He had a bunch of posts around then where, in addition to those posts, he was also making little arguments for me being town. Seems like he must have been feeling out what he could and couldn't attack me on. Later he switched to really arguing I was scum:
why does it seem like he goes out of his way to talk about ha to keyser and keyser to ha so goddamn much
....and then pretty much from that point on he seemed to be very convinced I was scum. I actually noticed it when he first laid out a case on me, but I convinced myself I was wrong. He was using wording that implied certainty I was scum, as opposed to suspicion. I'll bold that wording:
The fact he wanted to 1v1 me yesterday said a lot too. It would only make sense for townTyler to 1v1 me when Jaack was still alive if Tyler was absolutely certain that I was scum. If Tyler doubted that I might be scum, it would make more sense to lynch Jaack and hope that Jaack was the last scum and then Tyler wouldn't even have to try to lynch me. But he goes for me instead, I think in part because he knew he was going to have to get people to lynch me sooner or later (if he was successful yesterday then he could go into LyLo with a 1v1 vs Jaack, and guess who would win that one), and in part because it doesn't seem like something scum would do. Just like killing Dunn isn't something it seems like scumTyler would do, and he brought that up:
In post 2504, Tyler the Creator wrote:i don't think that if im scum here; systematically shooting all my allies at night would be a thing id do just because 'wifom'
I think Tyler also kind of gave us some indication of why he started pushing me when he did:
In post 2355, Tyler the Creator wrote:everyone else seems to be on autopilot or writing their last wills when we have all the time in the world and mountains of content to work with
In other words, if people were "on autopilot" then I think Tyler thought he would be safe laying the groundwork for my lynch later on. Plus, I don't know that anybody in the game really suspected him at that point. So it must have looked pretty safe to venture out into that territory.
There have been a few key points in the game we can go back and look at too -- the HA and Robert claims, the Dunn gambit and the Creature lynch all come to mind.
"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437
like if they're pointed - as in he thinks you're scum then why would he be asking about your behavior like he assumes you're posting for some specific gain, implying town
if that's him trying to get a read on you it's not as bad - but then the follow up is bad because your first response was kinda lame - and then your second response you started to push back a little bit and gave sorta a non-answer so i think the hesitance from him which essentially amounted to "need to see more" felt out of place
I could not see the town motivation/tone of xyzzy's questions (then he later backs down from his line of reasoning). post 34, post 40 - IMO, they are non-questions (
In post 268, heuristically_alone wrote:Up to this point, he had only joined in post 55 voting Jack as mafia (a surprisingly large amount of people immediately read Jack as mafia or town based off of his simple post 13)
Then immediately in posts 56-58 and 79-81 just quotes what others are saying and maybe asks follow up questions without literally given up anything original on his own. The only other posts he has made are 204-206 and 222, all of which he does the exact same thing. Just quoting others and giving a quick comment, but absolutely saying nothing original or doing nothing to help the game. 205 unvotes Jack, but that's that.
OK, but here's the thing though. Take a look at Keyser's early-game posts in this game.
I'm not gonna give him a pass or anything just yet, and actually I want to go through his ISO here in a minute, but I am approaching this with the knowledge that: A) People were suspicious of Keyser early in that game too, and B) Eventually he became pretty obvtown.
First off, I found it so strange that so many people read Jack so early on as scum or town based on his vote in post 13 against Robert. I think anyone voting him as an easy vote at the beginning makes for possible scum players, (Keyser, tool, floof for example), not that I'm saying that one of them HAVE to be scum. As for Jack, I don't have enough information yet from him to really say for me what he is, but for now I'm leaning on town.
Spoiler: Robert
Robert has been really inactive as well, and I don't have a read. If what bins said in 239 is true about mafia being quiet this game, it could be a reason why
Spoiler: Bins
239You've been relatively quiet too this game. 38 States that being super townie is your scum game. Now we know to expect that if Bins is mafia, she won't be super townie in this game. And maybe even if a super townie posts accidentally jumbles in, it gives more cause to her being scum. 177I feel like mafia use excuses like this more often than town. So what you haven't played for a year. Isn't playing mafia like riding a bike? Saying you haven't played for awhile so refamiliarizing yourself is similar to mafia tactic of acting more like a newbie or taking advantage to being a newbie so scummy posts can get away by having players think, oh he's just a newbie doesn't know what he's doing.
On a whole, I'm pushing Bins onto my scum side of the spectrum for now
Spoiler: xyzzy
I'm thinking town at this point. More of a gut feeling. There have been quite a few posts done that seems to be generally seeking more information from players and challenging players on their spots and it just feels pro town to me
Still confused about what you meant by this. Were you assuming that we though it obvious why you voted thus?
First assumption is that Tyler is town. Also a gut choice. He does seem to think Jack is town and has some doubt on Bins like me, so with common thoughts, I'll put him as town for now.
Spoiler: Toolenduso
As you might have guess from my Jack reading, I have a little suspicion towards tool. Also like Keyser, posts clarifying posts but lacks giving some original content to help town.
Spoiler: Zach
My vote stays on Zach for now. 70 "Also, I'm certain you guys aren't aware of this, but I have a mental power thing like I can see into people's hearts with my mind. Like a scouter for your soul. I have the intuition of a reincarnated something. Sure, It's natural to be skeptical, but expect me to make a definite solid statement on the true identity of the scumteam at some point and be super right. Maybe today. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe 19 days from now. Maybe in 5 minutes." I find this a scummy post. Obviously trying to have some fun with the game, but also poking fun around the the time limit and not giving definite times. This type of joking is something I've seen other mafia and myself do as scum. 146Why are you so eager to get Dunn on the wagon? I think that Dunnstral's line of thinking could be considered a threat to the mafia and would want him destroyed
Dunnstral wrote:
@Zach What's all this shade getting thrown my way without really saying anything of value
You're scum.
Refuses to give explanation of vote other than "He is scum". Voting people without evidence hurts town.
In post 159, Zachstralkita wrote:There's not much to say at this point, you lynch him, he flips scum, yay, you lynch him, he flips town, you lynch me.
More likely: You lynch me, I die, no one does anything about Dunnstral following this.
I vote the last option. If we are wrong and you are townie, than we can go after Dunn.
Spoiler: Floof
Also a suspect of mafia for voting Jack. There hasn't been any more substantial reading from Floof to get more of an opinion.
Spoiler: Jake
246Asks people to not use lists because it helps the mafia out too much and doesn’t help the town. If this is an earnest request, then it makes Jake town, whether or not people agree with him on his opinion of read lists
In post 268, heuristically_alone wrote:Up to this point, he had only joined in post 55 voting Jack as mafia (a surprisingly large amount of people immediately read Jack as mafia or town based off of his simple post 13)
Then immediately in posts 56-58 and 79-81 just quotes what others are saying and maybe asks follow up questions without literally given up anything original on his own. The only other posts he has made are 204-206 and 222, all of which he does the exact same thing. Just quoting others and giving a quick comment, but absolutely saying nothing original or doing nothing to help the game. 205 unvotes Jack, but that's that.
OK, but here's the thing though. Take a look at Keyser's early-game posts in this game.
I'm not gonna give him a pass or anything just yet, and actually I want to go through his ISO here in a minute, but I am approaching this with the knowledge that: A) People were suspicious of Keyser early in that game too, and B) Eventually he became pretty obvtown.
I don't see how an RVS from another game has anything to do with reading how he plays as scum or town. And why did he become pretty obvtown? Just by posting a lot of commentary of what others were saying?
-Ostensibly, ira treated the game like it was RVS until #198, because when people gave him flak for his Keyser vote his defense was that he was trying to build a wagon to get out of RVS. Fair enough. But in that same post he votes Bins, right after Dunn begins pushing for a Bins wagon. It's the same MO as when he voted for Keyser, basically, but at this point he's putting reasoning behind it. So it kind of all comes together to look like ira was floating along trying to look active, then got criticized for it and came up with an excuse (I'm trying to get out of RVS) but also tried to escape the criticism by going to the next viable wagon he could find (Bins). It's worth noting that ira says he didn't know Dunn was voting Bins (#256).
-He switches back to Keyser in #257. He has reasoning, and I do follow it logically, but it should be noted that it happens amid pressure for his Bins vote, and in the process of switching to Keyser he distances himself from the Bins vote.
I like post 282 as a whole alot, including toolenduso's expression of his reads of xyzzy and Jaack (healthy paranoia + re-checking his positions continually) i.e townie-mindset.
Actually thinking about it this needs to post more.
In post 358, Jaack wrote:Actually UNVOTE: VOTE: heuristically_alone
Ira is more scummy, but I would like to see some pressure on this player.
@floof: why specifically go after H_A to get him to post more? He's not among the least active players in this game. Why not try to get somebody like Robert to post more?
@jaack: Why did you want pressure on H_A specifically?
In post 447, toolenduso wrote:I feel like HA is a good lynch. But I feel like it's a tad fast to lynch right now and I kinda want to sleep on this and come back and look at it with a fresher eye tomorrow. So in the meantime I'd like to ask for no hammers on H_A just yet. And certainly don't do it without getting a claim out of him first.
i think i said before this looked good for tool imo
In post 447, toolenduso wrote:I feel like HA is a good lynch. But I feel like it's a tad fast to lynch right now and I kinda want to sleep on this and come back and look at it with a fresher eye tomorrow. So in the meantime I'd like to ask for no hammers on H_A just yet. And certainly don't do it without getting a claim out of him first.
i think i said before this looked good for tool imo
too obvious
dear god just lynch me
he's literally saying "don't lynch my scumbuddy yet until i coach him on what to fakeclaim"
like look back at tool's reaction to the claim i bet it's long after a good chunk of town reacted poorly and him going right along with it
or a waffle because actually i remember some people got off ha right away because he claimed PR would have to go back and check
Decided to look at votecounts and this one is interesting - it's pre doctor claim too
relatively strong townreads on bins and dunn
so either half the scumteam wanted to all pile on zach (xyzzy) - which would be strange considering that there's a cool ira wagon already rolling
or
at least
one of jaack/tool is scum
a part of me wants to think that ha might be getting bussed there, namely because paranoia, but also because i don't ever have faith in town's abillity to get a wagon spinning on scum day 1 without some sort of bussing/distancing sparking it
and im leaning on it being keyser because a tool/jaack team realizes how shit out of luck they are if ha takes off and how bad this would make them look (gonna sprinkle some meh ontop of that but im rolling with it for now)
OK so Tyler's arc around the HA and Robert claims. HA claimed doc in #473, ira claimed bodyguard in #491 and Robert claimed macho VT ("weak townie" at first) in #562.
Oh yeah that's right. Tyler had not posted for about two days before HA's claim, and then he came back not long after the doc claim. Let me try to piece together a better idea of the timeline here...these are the VCs before and after HA's claim.
In post 514, Tyler the Creator wrote:i think scum would probably distance from ha early given some of his play that ive seen; he's perpetual lynchbait
like from memory i thought floofs vote was tacky
No vote on HA, but he does unvote ira.
So basically what I see happening here is that as pressure builds on HA (and remember, the other scumbuddy Keyser committed to bussing HA early), Tyler kind of retreats from the game a little and scum start talking strategy in their daychat thread. They settle on HA claiming doc. At this point I had thought that they would all have the same strategy, but they must have consciously planned against that. I guess it makes sense since Keyser was already bussing HA that he would doubtcast on HA's claim and continue pushing him while Tyler, who'd been voting ira, goes another direction.
So Tyler hangs back to see how people react to HA's claim, and then ira comes in and claims BG. At this point the heat is turning up so Tyler feels compelled to come in. What's key here is that Tyler kind of avoided talking too much about the HA and ira claims, he throws out a snippet or two but he is also kind of pulling attention toward robert and floof at the time while distancing mildly from HA.
The reason that's important is that it explains the way Tyler reacted to the Robert claim too. It looks like Tyler was still searching for a way to not lynch HA that day. Tyler unvotes and then disappears for another two days (didn't post from April 29 to May 1). So Robert claims in #562, and Tyler's response is one consistent with scum trying to figure out whether there's anything there he can work with:
In post 608, Tyler the Creator wrote:my take is that i don't like roberts play but i can't remember the last time scum misread their role pm whereas town do it once in a while
...he arrives at the conclusion that there's probably not anything there. But then Jaack votes Robert in #615, and Tyler begins kinda poking at Robert again:
In post 616, Tyler the Creator wrote:what's the point exactly of giving macho to role that doesn't do anything else?
here i am guessing zulfy but still ive never heard of that before
why do you call it weak? like is that how you refer to macho elsewhere or something?
Robert's answers aren't satisfactory, so Tyler votes him -- while leaving a door open for HA still:
In post 645, Tyler the Creator wrote:i voted rob primarily because he question dodged me when i asked him about why he thought weak meant macho
and 626 hit my gut really hard in ways i'd struggle to articulate
i'd still support an ha lynch
After two days, most of the people on the HA wagon have remained on the HA wagon with only two people -- Jaack and Tyler -- going for Robert. At that point, Tyler switches back to HA:
In post 669, Tyler the Creator wrote:most of the lurkers have checked in to weigh in about the claims, at this point it feels like we're dragging our feet
unvote;
vote:ha
should be l2
So a broad summary: Tyler stopped posting for a bit around the time it would have made sense for scum to be working out how they were going to handle the pressure on HA's slot. HA claims doc and Tyler skirts the issue, then Robert claims and Tyler finds something that looks like a saving grace for scum and he goes for it...only to find that there actually isn't a whole lot of support for it, and so he goes back to bussing.
"Half of the game is figuring out who the scum is. The other half is convincing everyone else that you're right." -- PlaysWithSquirrels, in Newbie 437
tool you used that same exact case on me day 2 - fucked off for a week and came back to see town wasn't buying into it and dropped that read like a bad habit the rest of the game
also your theory about me lurking out day 1 is first of all bs and also falls apart to reason when you look at how i was perfectly comfortable interacting with keyser from very early on in the game and questioning him sometimes relatively hard on shit
