Micro 624: Grey Flag Nightless (Game Over)

[callforjudgement]

Vote Count

Rosske

(4): thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity 324

thenewearth

(1): Rosske

RachMarie

(1): karnos

Infinity 324

(1): Hoopla

Not voting

(2): RachMarie, Javajoe24

With 9 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline is Thursday 28 July at 21:40 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-07-28 21:40:00)

)

[Hoopla]

^i'm on infinity now mod

gotta make sure i'm representing in case someone hears my cries

Fixed — callforjudgement

[RachMarie]

lol poor mod it only took 3 tries

[Infinity 324]

Hoopla, do you have any reads so far based on play?

I have some reads based on behavioral tells -- this page I've cleared Rach and TNE based on one. I also spared karnos' life based on a gut instinct, although I'm less sure about that instinct now that the game is narrowing down. I have had more gut instincts about some people's behaviors and posts, but things still have to add up from a broader perspective rather than on isolated tells alone.

Do you have behavior-based reads on people other than those 3, even gut ones?

Why do you say you "cleared" rach and TNE?

Are wagon analysis and gut normally your main scumhunting tools early on?

[RachMarie]

we need a scum flip first

teams at this point are pointless

[RachMarie]

I want time to read infin I have played with him before.

so far I have not seen anything scummy and franky just plain flaked out.

[Infinity 324]

Rach what are your reads atm? Do you still scumread karnos?

[RachMarie]

I need to read through some of the newer pages read him in ISO I know I dropped off of him because it seemed like he was towning it up

[Infinity 324]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

If it helps here is an ISO of him as scum, he is much more careful and indecisive there.

[Hoopla]

Do you have behavior-based reads on people other than those 3, even gut ones?

Why do you say you "cleared" rach and TNE?

Are wagon analysis and gut normally your main scumhunting tools early on?

As far as I'm concerned, Rach and tne's slips are as close as we're going to get to confirmed town in this game, and I find these sorts of town slips far more reliable than most things in the game. For the most part scum are just trying to not look like scum, but they don't often attempt fake town slips like this to try and look town -- it's a very creative lie, and scum are usually more concerned with blending in.

For a similar reason, I often find towntells much more reliable on D1 than scumtells, as scum have been conditioned to avoid doing scummy things, while townies will often be all over the place, and many things they do can be construed as scummy/antitown. A related point; last time I checked, town's D1 lynch rate of scum was essentially random -- collectively, we aren't very good at catching scum based on behavioural tells, which is what people primarily use on D1.

I find studying the composition of wagons, trying to clear probtownies and process-of-eliminating combinations of teams more useful, especially in a game this size and with such a high ratio of scum. I use behavioural tells too, but I still tend to filter it through the game as a whole -- for example; I think rb/karnos is a less likely combination based on their protracted argument about derphammering and whatnot. I just don't see scum getting in such arguments with each other very often, especially on D1. Scumpartners tend to ask questions or point out scummy things they do, rather than getting in these types of back-and-forths.

^That tell (and a couple other things) will be very useful when I look at the different combinations of players someone can be scum with. Sometimes a player doesn't make sense as scum in many teams, even though looking at that player in isolation they do. And sometimes a player works as scum with a lot of different people, which can make them a good lynch. My defense of Rosske hinges on a similar probabilistic sentiment -- he doesn't work as scum with many players.

[Infinity 324]

Ok

Your theory talk makes sense, and fits your play this game. Unfortunately it makes it hard for me to get a good read on you because I often scumhunt based on how people analyze other people's motivations. I think scum could say exactly what you're saying and have it be wrong for this one game but right in general.

If rosske flips scum I would definitely look at hoopla

[GuiltyLion]

Town: {RachMarie, Franky, TNE, karnos, javajoe, GuiltyLion}
Scum: {Rosske, rb, Hoopla}

just gonna quote this again

Infinity definitely looks town to me now

[karnos]

Whelp, I was planning to check in this morning and hammer, but I see we have a deadline extension.

So we could drag this out another day or two.

OTOH, rosske has been at L-1 forever and hasn't really posted a shred of useful information, so is it actually helping anyone to drag this out?

Nope.

VOTE: Rosske

[Infinity 324]

I would've waited a little longer...

Eh it's probably scum anyway

[Rosske]

sorry not scum. I just had no idea how to play this game getting piled on so quickly. I couldn't figure out how to defend myself when I didn't know what I did scummy. I did my best to make my thoughts known. So it's been another learning experience. Anyway after I flip look at the people who started my wagon and look at the people who kept it going. Go town!

[callforjudgement]

Apologies for the delay in posting this; I accidentally posted something I shouldn't have done and had to edit it out in a hurry. If anyone saw the incorrect post, please contact the moderator of the game in question by PM.

Vote Count

Rosske

(5): thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity 324, karnos

thenewearth

(1): Rosske

Infinity 324

(1): Hoopla

Not voting

(2): RachMarie, Javajoe24

With 9 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline was Thursday 28 July at 21:40 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-07-28 21:40:00)

)

Rosske

has been lynched. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.
Because a townie was lynched, there is no Night 1. Welcome to Day 2!
The remaining time at the end of day 1 was around 2 days and 9 hours. As such, the deadline for day 2 will be approximately 8 days, 4 hours and 30 minutes.

Vote Count

Not voting

(8): GuiltyLion, Hoopla, Javajoe24, karnos, Infinity 324, RachMarie, rb, thenewearth

With 8 players alive, a lynch requires 5 votes.
Deadline is Wednesday 3 August at 18:00 UTC (

automatic countdown: (expired on 2016-08-03 18:00:00)

)

[thenewearth]

Wait I forgot

So who didn't want to hammer?

[Hoopla]

@) rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity, karnos, javajoe

Top 2 scumreads in your next post please.

[Javajoe24]

Karnos and rb, because of the rosske flip.

[karnos]

VOTE: rb

Biggest scumread.

Next? I don't know yet.

[thenewearth]

Wait I forgot

So who didn't want to hammer?

Really though
Either someone answers or I'm gonna shut the fuck up for 2 or 3 days rereading 15 pages

Cause some shit really went down

[Javajoe24]

Wait I forgot

So who didn't want to hammer?

Really though
Either someone answers or I'm gonna shut the fuck up for 2 or 3 days rereading 15 pages

Cause some shit really went down

I don't know what you mean exactly. I was the one that said I would have hammered if it came to it if that is what you are saying.

[Infinity 324]

Well shit, time to re-evaluate

My top 2 scumreads atm would be java and hoopla just because they're not townreads lol

[RachMarie]

jeeze you hammered before I could get back was at wound care and posting there on my kindle fire on crappy wifi sucked so bad.

ok looking at the wagon


Rosske (5): thenewearth, rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity 324, karnos
thenewearth (1): Rosske
Infinity 324 (1): Hoopla
Not voting (2): RachMarie, Javajoe24

I was not voting because i was not here I had intended on putting down a vote but you all lynched fast.


rb and guilty lion are in good spots for a scum on a town lynch wagon

off the wagon hoopla or joe hmmm have to think on that I doubt all the scumz were on the d 1 wagon though.

going with top ones

rb and GL

[Infinity 324]

I reread some stuff and it's not really getting me anywhere.[float=]

Me and 4 of my townreads were on the wagon. In fact, they were my 4 top townreads--rach would be my weakest townread atm. And I don't see any of them being scum, like at all :/

karnos played very differently than his scum game, has strong opinions and conviction.
guiltylion's effort in pushing his scumreads and finding every small scummy thing about people still looks very town.
tne's and rb's whole attitudes just don't fit with scum.

But there has to be at least one scum on the wagon...

Maybe tne's and rb's play is just a result of playstyle and they play that way regardless of alignment?

Ugh I'll just do this

VOTE: javajoe