In post 417, Hoopla wrote:@) rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity, karnos, javajoe
Top 2 scumreads in your next post please.
Torn between scum being off-wagon and on. Probably scum in both areas tbh.
Off-wagon: Hoopla.
On-wagon: GuiltyLion.
Hoopla: Hoopla + Rosske was improbable scumteam because Hoopla defended him so hard, it's too obvious. With Rosske's townflip, I think Hoopla is scummier because he was so dead and intent was already claimed, this is a towncred play.Hoopla + Rosske was improbable scumteam because Hoopla defended him so hard, it's too obvious. With Rosske's townflip, I think Hoopla is scummier because Rosske was so obviously the day's lynch and intent was already claimed, this is a towncred play.
GuiltyLion: His pressure on me was just bullshit. I clearly pointed out what I liked about Rosske's play and the fact that he said he would follow-up - and his total lack of follow-up was why I disliked his play. He's misrepped me constantly this game, and his Day1 scumreads are awful. I can see Scum!Hoopla now, but I don't see how anyone would pick that unless they KNOW Rosske is town and are waiting to scumframe them. I'd honestly pick GL + Hoopla as a scumteam here, because there's another thing about their interaction that I hate: GL had his scumreads as "Rosske, rb, Hoopla" - he put a lot of effort into trying to pressure Rosske and me, yet said barely a word to Hoopla. Just repeated they were scum without reasoning much. Especially with this game having an extra scumplayer, this is very possible as a soft-bus and/or distancing imo.
Honourable mention: Karnos. Would he early hammer as scum? Maybe, maybe not. I tend to think he wouldn't, not when his slot was under pressure. But the game was also taking a bit of a turn and people were starting to catch onto some people who hadn't initially been in the discussion. He was acting like "welp, we can't get much more out of this day!" but I don't think that was necessarily the case. I don't like the timing of that hammer, but it happens as bored town. I still don't really agree though - the game had been inactive for like 8 hours. People sleep, I was actually reading through another game on the site when it happened.VOTE: Hoopla
I provided 3 because this game has an extra scumplayer than a normal 9 player setup, so I think it's dumb to provide just 2 reads since that doesn't even match up with the number of scum in the game :/
Actually I could see hoopla defending rosske for towncred. Hmm
I don't like how she's only using theory and gut to explain her reads, those are the easiest things to fake as scum. But there's nothing definitive that makes her scum...
In post 417, Hoopla wrote:@) rb, GuiltyLion, Infinity, karnos, javajoe
Top 2 scumreads in your next post please.
Top scumread is you actually
I think karnos looks a lot worse after the town!Rosske flip, being a counterwagon to town
If you flip scum, I could maybe see scum!Infinity
I still really don't like half of what rb is saying but I do get the sense that he's trying to solve the game, some of it is probably a playstyle clash. The way he started pouring on the AtE and
rage
when I was pressuring him really turns me off though
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
also I haven't brought this up yet but I don't like the easy townreads on TNE and Rach for their "slips" - I expect town to understand the rules of the game and I think faking a lack of knowledge is well within anyone competent's scum toolbox. Individually I think both of their play has looked fine but I'm definitely going to re-evaluate how people were throwing down those townreads in a bit.
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
the thing with posts like 345 is that they're very easy posts for scum to make, as they can convincingly examine the gamestate while still knowing everyone's alignment. My problem with Hoopla is how she basically defined Rosske as town sheerly by looking at the wagon composition
pre-flip
, without diving at all into Rosske's actual play.
VOTE: Hoopla
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
rb - why do you say my Day1 scumreads are "awful" when we both finished the day on the Rosske wagon and we are both currently scumreading Hoopla?
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
In post 430, GuiltyLion wrote:rb - why do you say my Day1 scumreads are "awful" when we both finished the day on the Rosske wagon and we are both currently scumreading Hoopla?
Tbh I don't know how someone could scumread Hoopla + Rosske Day 1. That scumteam just looks absurd to me. With Rosske flipping town I see it as a towncred move, but someone picking a Hoopla + Rosske pairing is just weird af. Scum don't defend their partner when they're at L-1 with multiple people declaring intent to give intent, it's just dumb. Plus the fact you never really aired any suspicions of Hoopla, other than just putting them in your read list (unexplained as far as I know) when you put quite a lot of effort into 'pressuring' your other 2 scumreads is telling imo.
This game setup means bussing/distancing is probably to be expected because there's extra scum. I'd be confident in calling a Hoopla + GL scumteam. Your vote on her right after my suspicion on her just makes me go, 'meh'. I meta-read TNE town as well since this is easily recognizable as the same town game I played with her very recently.
So to be clear: it's awful for reads made on Day1. Rosske flipped town, I'm town and you didn't provide much reasoning at all as to why you thought Hoopla was scum. If she flipped scum I'd be more inclined to think you were scum as well, than that you weren't. BUT - we agree on why Hoopla's townread of Rosske is suspect. So...I'm willing to re-evaluate over the course of Day 2 - even though the amount of misrepping you did of me was just absurd that I felt like you just couldn't be seriously trying to solve the game.
Plus we agree on karnos apparently, but I've said before I don't think that simple read-agreement is a strong alignment indicator.
In post 428, GuiltyLion wrote:also I haven't brought this up yet but I don't like the easy townreads on TNE and Rach for their "slips" - I expect town to understand the rules of the game and I think faking a lack of knowledge is well within anyone competent's scum toolbox. Individually I think both of their play has looked fine but I'm definitely going to re-evaluate how people were throwing down those townreads in a bit.
The tne and Rach slips are the most informative thing that has happened all game, to the point, where I'm willing to put the game on the line based on those reads: to a certain extent we do have to place faith in those that are town around us, since there are fewer townies than normal.
With that in mind, and the fact we only need to lynch two scum to win, I'm going to try and work out who works in the most scumteams from the scumpool of rb,karnos, guiltylion, javajoe and infinity:
As I mentioned late yesterday, I found karnos/rb's back-and-forth unlikely to be a scum dialogue and that feeling hasn't changed today. If they are scum together, I'd rule out GuiltyLion as a third team member, as I really don't think scum are brazen enough to all barrel onto the first wagon out the gate together:
In all my time collecting data on D1 wagons, it's exceedingly rare that all scum pile onto a wagon in a row -- in fact I can't remember a game where I've ever seen it. This isn't an overly important point, but it rules out one combination of a rb/karnos team, adding a layer to the rb/karnos aren't both scum theory.
Of the two, I prefer rb as scum because I find his suspicion of me today suspicious when he commented on me making a lot of sense during D1, and for the most part he seems to be a pretty logical minded player. I find it unrealistic that he doesn't consider viewing the game from the perspective of town!Hoopla AT ALL as town and would be more unsure about my alignment, even if he was paranoid about me. I am fully aware that my play is unusual and most people don't defend town reads so much, but as one of the players who I perceive as the most perceptive in the game, it's alarming to me that he's suddenly not considering my opinions as potentially clued in and on the right track, particularly after how we saw Rosske's wagon go and particularly because he said I made sense D1 and shared a lot of my reads. To me, he makes more sense as scum taking advantage of the game situation rather than town trying to discern my alignment. Comments like this about the Rosske wagon...
In post 148, rb wrote:Tbh I like 146 and 147 from rosske.
VOTE: VOTE: karnos
Don't like this guy though. And me not liking him makes me not like rosske's wagon.
...make future movements onto the Rosske wagon look like he is taking advantage of a game situation (something I am sensing about his suspicion on me). I'm still waiting to hear back on when he suddenly started liking the Rosske wagon, especially since his opinion on karnos never wavered.
~~
There is an outside chance of karnos/rb being a town/town combination, which would mean that the scumteam is guiltylion/javajoe/infinity. Not impossible, though there are many more combinations of two scum in GL/joe/Infinity + one of rb/karnos. Regardless, it's the percentage play today to lynch from GL/Joe/Infinity imo as I expect 2 or possibly 3 scum there. Lets have a look at them individually:
Javajoe's
been sitting back and I don't have any convincing reasons to disclude him from any scumteams, and I think he might even be my picking over Infinity instead. A key post I missed on D1 is him greasing the wheel to shape up for a hammer:
In post 143, Javajoe24 wrote:You actually have a point here, he is very quiet as if trying to blend in. I still don't like your unannounced L-1 and am keeping my vote on you, but
FoS: rosske
To me, it seems weird and convenient to sheep the opinion of your number 1 scum read and shape up for a hammer on someone they're suspecting. This is scum opportunism, and though these could really be town!joe's thoughts, it looks like a wishy-washy throwaway comment to start shifting suspicion onto Rosske, and I think he'd be more circumspect at believing what his suspect was talking about.
Behaviourally, he has been flying under the radar and has essentially received no suspicion, and in a game where there are such a high concentration of scum, I find this alarming, as his play hasn't exactly been a beacon of towniness. If he were town, I'd expect at least one scum to have considered him suspicious at some point as he doesn't look like a challenging target to go after. It's more likely he is scum being ignored by his buddies as they focus on others.
~~
GuiltyLion
has a lot of interaction with rb/karnos about the whole derphammer thing, and reading through it, I still don't see how all three could possibly be scum, and I don't think GuiltyLion links himself so openly and explicitly with karnos when he says things like:
In post 137, GuiltyLion wrote:except my point is that the scum didn't get away, he was lynched the next day. You're conflating "scum" with "scumteam" here.
karnos (and I agree with him)
is saying that derphammering is a policy lynch. No exceptions. All the examples in the world of town/scum derphammering in various games won't change this attitude, and IMO is a distracting discussion from the game we have here.
My additional opinion is that assuming anyone who does an early L-1 vote is scum is a very shallow way of forming reads. While I currently think RachMarie is being genuine with her push here, I don't believe her conclusion is correct.
I just don't see scum coming to the aid of another buddy in a relatively benign and aimless theory conversation. For the most part he sides with karnos against rb, and if he's to be scum with either of these two, I think it's slightly more likely to rb, although they have a decent back-and-forth too and end up cross-distancing. It's a convincing bit of scum theatre if they're both scum, but I find that more believable than GL making an agree post with a buddy when he doesn't really need too.
Having little overlap with our D2 reads doesn't bode well, and I find it suspicious he is trying to bring Rach/TNE back into the possible lynch-pool, but his convincing interactions with rb and karnos is a point in his favour, I feel.
~~
The
Franky/Infinity
slot has primarily been a process-of-elimination read, which I find is the most accurate way to catch lurking scum. When you have too many town reads or can rule out too many possible scumteams and combinations, it increases the likelihood of catching scum in these slots with minimal risk. I find there to be an okay chance of two town in rb/GL/karnos, which would pretty much lock in Infinity/javajoe as a scumpair.
If they are indeed a scumpair, I think the game makes the most sense with rb or GL as their partner, as I got the distinct impression on D1 scum were under little to no pressure at all and occupied the lurking/flying under the radar spots or someone not considered as a lynch. Scum like javajoe can happily park his vote on wagons like karnos, and fly under the radar when there is no immediate pressure of any of your team being lynched.
Infinity's posting has been okay and I think he's displayed some genuine curiosity at times, which is more than I can say about javajoe and his under the radar play.
~~
So, with that all said, I think javajoe is the best chance of being scum today. He fits in the most teams and I haven't really seen anything from him that makes me think otherwise:
In post 426, Infinity 324 wrote:Actually I could see hoopla defending rosske for towncred. Hmm
I don't like how she's only using theory and gut to explain her reads, those are the easiest things to fake as scum. But there's nothing definitive that makes her scum...
I still want more from java.
How do you come up with your reads out of curiosity?
with such a high ratio of scum in this game, it's imperative that townies stick together and work together well. Hopefully you perceive me as town too and we can get a solid town bloc going to offset the scum manipulation of wagons. I want to see more out of you two so we can put scum under pressure.
In post 429, GuiltyLion wrote:the thing with posts like 345 is that they're very easy posts for scum to make, as they can convincingly examine the gamestate while still knowing everyone's alignment. My problem with Hoopla is how she basically defined Rosske as town sheerly by looking at the wagon composition
pre-flip
, without diving at all into Rosske's actual play.
VOTE: Hoopla
"Actual play" being code for behavioural tells, right? Why is the fact I favour wagon analysis on D1 (something I believe to be more accurate) suspicious to you?
Do you think I'd only play this way as scum? If not, why are you reading my playstyle as alignment-related as opposed to playstyle-related?
Tbh Hoopla I'm not really a logical player in the way you seem to think, I go mostly by gut-reads and then try to figure out why I'm gut-reading something a certain way. But I'll take the compliment
As I see it: Rosske said he was going to analyse his wagon and wait and see. To me, that's a town-like declaration. But then days later he never posted anything to do with this. Also I don't really see scumteams as a reliable tell Day 1. Denying who could and couldn't be in a scumteam, sure - but like I said I never thought Karnos-Rosske was an impossible scumteam so when you say that it's weird I was on Rosske with karnos being a scumread of mine, I'd say it's not. I don't really remember when I re-voted Rosske, I'm pretty sure that it's later on in Day 1 after Rosske didn't deliver on his promises. That to me is pretty much what scum do - say they're going to do things and then slip by on never doing it. I was wrong this time but I don't think I'm wrong to say that generally speaking, that's scumgame to look like you're trying to help but never actually help. Turns out he was just a bewildered newb, but I don't really think you can just let every newb play the "I'm new and confused" card or you'll never find scum in newbs.
I think his 146 and 147 were something like he was going to wait and see and then do/say something about his wagons. I expected something more like what you did with your own wagon analysis. It just never came so I saw that as weak scumplay trying to convince people to get off his wagon. Shit, he didn't even try and towntell when he started looking like the day's lynch. He didn't even get town-annoyed, just straight up gave up and that to me is scummy. You go by wagon analysis, I go by reactions/responses. I mean maybe you're just town and better than me (likely tbh) - or you're just scum and getting towncred.
Also I'm generally not a big fan of lynching people who're talkative or who are pushing the game around in the way you were on Day 1 - because all day 1 reads are average at best without any flips and final wagons to analyse, and lynching a potentially strong town player is probably going to be bad Day 1. I don't like the Rosske town flip and the defence, and I don't think it's as uncommon as you say. Defending "townreads" happens relatively often from scum because it's still a better play than lynching a
I'm fine with lynching in GL/Joe/Karnos/Hoopla. The only scumteam I don't see possible in that combo is Hoopla + Joe and I still see bus potential in Hoopla + GL. I'm pretty happy to lynch within GL/Karnos/Joe.
I think I've said already that I see lurking in a single game much differently to site-wide replacing, and Infinity's entrace into the game while under pressure was good, which makes me inclined to townread him.
We disagree on Infinity but whatever, I think we can work it out. I want to know how/which people townreading so hard that you can narrow stuff down. I'm not seeing it this game.
rb wrote:Also I'm generally not a big fan of lynching people who're talkative or who are pushing the game around in the way you were on Day 1 - because all day 1 reads are average at best without any flips and final wagons to analyse, and lynching a potentially strong town player is probably going to be bad Day 1. I don't like the Rosske town flip and the defence, and I don't think it's as uncommon as you say. Defending "townreads" happens relatively often from scum because it's still a better play than lynching a town player while you just sit totally quiet and do nothing. As long as you're confident you can demonstrate you didn't townread them by "knowing" their alignment then you get massive towncred.
^Fixed above.
Also want to stress that because to me that play is probably the best on Day 1. If you were town you could have diverted a townlynch and if scum you could have won the game with that gambit - which is why I'm so suspicious of it. What reason does town!Hoopla have to make such a risky play?
As in, a town player attempting to divert a lynch just based on wagon analysis seems insane to me. Maybe it IS playstyle, but I don't know if I can just chalk it up to that.
In post 436, rb wrote:I don't like the Rosske town flip and the defence, and I don't think it's as uncommon as you say. Defending "townreads" happens relatively often from scum because it's still a better play than lynching a
In post 438, rb wrote:As in, a town player attempting to divert a lynch just based on wagon analysis seems insane to me. Maybe it IS playstyle, but I don't know if I can just chalk it up to that.
If you don't know whether it is playstyle or not, then how can you be suspicious of it? Shouldn't it be NAI if you can't determine my motivations? Do you really not ever see townies defend other townies at L-1 when they believe they are town?
In post 436, rb wrote:We disagree on Infinity but whatever, I think we can work it out. I want to know how/which people townreading so hard that you can narrow stuff down. I'm not seeing it this game.
The only people I'm clearing are Rachel and thenewearth based on their town-slips on page 16. Thenewearth's is here:
Joe has a good chance of flipping scum based on wagon analysis
I could support that he is a scum read for me not only based on analysis but overall play.
Not as sold on GL or rb though being town. Karnos hammer would be really ballsy to do as scum on D1 like that. So odds are one of the other two is scum. I don't think tne is scum.
In post 428, GuiltyLion wrote:also I haven't brought this up yet but I don't like the easy townreads on TNE and Rach for their "slips" - I expect town to understand the rules of the game and I think faking a lack of knowledge is well within anyone competent's scum toolbox. Individually I think both of their play has looked fine but I'm definitely going to re-evaluate how people were throwing down those townreads in a bit.
I agree with this post. I have been in several games where scum have faked townslips for town cred.
