New York 196: My Game, My Flavor Mafia (Mafia Win)

[implosion]

I also could easily be wrong on any of those strong townreads. But I'm ready to justify any of them and have those justifications scrutinized if anyone asks.

[implosion]

Why exactly do you think the checks were shannon and AGar?

{Zach, Dunn, Me, Trans, Varsoon, Implosion, Kraska}

Who is left.

[implosion]

I think the checks were most likely Varsoon and myself, but that's literally from just looking at the first post of each day.

Really at this point there is probably 1 scum left so we just sit here and wait for Dunnstral and a50 to claim and then we break the game wide open.

[implosion]

I feel like he would put his two confirmed-town checks in the first list of players rather than doing what appears to be PoE on them

[implosion]

kraska can you actually please stop capslocking.

And explain why airick's d1 implies AGar is town. All i see from a glance is a jump from Varsoon to AGar when there was no AGar wagon and there's no reason that couldn't be distancing.

[implosion]

and boem, it looks like he was going in with the assumption "all of the people in this initial list are town" and then narrowing it down from there by looking at the remaining players and trying to figure out which were likely town.

I think he'd put confirmed-town investigates in the first group. I may be wrong. I'd like to look more indepth at his iso.

[implosion]

like he said "We will hard lynch the remaining players and win"
before he said that AGar and shannon were town

[implosion]

I like Shannon and Zach for town btw

this post was before night 3... he couldn't have checked them both by now

and his d1-2 are also very consistent with having checked varsoon, as your next quote agrees with as well

[implosion]

I'm certainly not confident that I was the second but I still think AGar is likely scum so :shrug:

Anyway. None of this matters. We need Dunnstral to claim if he shot beeboy, and we need a50 to claim who he jailkept, asap.

[implosion]

i figured out another thing in the shower.

Remember how motion was detected on Varsoon n1?

[implosion]

And yeah I agree beeboy was probably a vig shot. Only other possibility I can think of is that scum ALSO have a rolecop.

And full vig is a thing.

[implosion]

when I say rolecop I mean an actual rolecop. It's theoretically possible they have both a rolecop and a neapolitan, given how many non-vanilla town there are. I'm saying the only way I can imagine beeboy being a scumkill is if he had been rolecopped or in some other way suspected as an odd night cop or other PR.

[implosion]

I disagree, I think.

Odd-night cop is a decent PR.

Jailkeeper is good.

Vig (or 3-shot vig) is pretty good.

doc/nurse/backup nurse essentially together act as one doctor that will take a long time to kill, but are not as strong as 3 independent PRs by any means.

The motion detector is an extremely weak PR (although given GiF's misconstrual of it it may be slightly stronger) and is made weaker by being 2-shot.

Plus we have at least two macho townies who, although they act as false positives for the neapolitan, are also negative utility especially if the town has so much protection and sort of act to balance out the doctor chain's power by giving the doctors less freedom over who to protect.

[implosion]

kraska, another possible that the reason for scum's killing pattern is that they were afraid of the doctor chain.

[implosion]

we can make all of these decisions about whether or not to massclaim etc AFTER dunnstral and A50 make their claims (Dunn claiming whether or not he shot beeboy, A50 claiming who he jailkept).

[implosion]

beeboy, the guy who led on mafia jailkeeper, does not seem like someone that vigilante would shoot

except for you know dunnstral voted and fossed beeboy yesterday

[implosion]

Dunnstral, you're gonna need to actually explicitly claim full vig. The bullshit isn't doing you any good anymore.

Here's the plan. We direct the vig and the jailkeeper.

Both Almost50 and Dunnstral need to claim their shots before the night phase hits.

They will of course need to be on separate people. The doctor protects Almost50, because the jailkeep is extremely valuable with only one mafia member remaining.

Every night that someone other than Dunnstral's target dies, we get a clear based on who A50 roleblocked, assuming there's only one mafia left, which I think is somewhat safe - I don't think the amount of town power claimed justifies a 5-man scumteam with at least 3 power roles in a 19-player game.

There's two versions of this plan: with or without massclaim. If we massclaim the upside is obviously more clarity; the downside is that we'll out the doctor, which means that we'll essentially have two guaranteed nights of this plan occurring, as mafia will have to kill the doctor and then varsoon. Massclaiming is

probably

better.

But the important thing is that we play this game very rigorously at this point. We have tons of town power still alive (even if A50 is scum, he'll be severely limited in his night actions) and so many mislynches. I really just want to play it safe since we have that option and eliminate even the smallest chance of letting this win slip away.

[implosion]

Dunnstral please just stop lying and say you're a full-shot vig if you are there is absolutely no reason to lie when the win is basically locked down

[implosion]

And a50 claims his jailkeep because i'm assuming you have more shots left and i can't believe you even if you say that you don't, so we need to ensure that he jailkeeps someone other than your target. In theory you can claim your target and he can not since we have a doctor.

[implosion]

how is it useless? I'm assuming there's only one mafia left so the mafia won't have any option of sending someone else to do the kill.

[implosion]

The setup from a somewhat recent 19-player large normal (2015, NY 189):

Mason x 3, 2-shot vig, gunsmith, flower vendor (fruit vendor with a different name)
vs
3x goon, 1x doctor

with the rest as vanilla townies
this scumteam has more power and this town has a bit more power so i think this is a pretty good point of comparison.

[implosion]

a fruit vendor sends someone fruit every night and that person is informed that they received fruit. So essentially they can confirm their existence in the game.

Next most recent similarly sized singleball game I could find is NY183. 18 players, 3 mafia + traitor vs 14 town.

Mafia had traitor + encryptor + roleblocker + 2-shot rolecop

town had tracker + doctor + 2-shot friendly neighbor + a pretty strong joat (doc/vig/cop)

[implosion]

Like I honestly cannot imagine a 5:14 game being balanced without really ridiculous amounts of town power. I guess I could imagine something like 4+traitor:14 being balanced but then the jailkeeper being strong thing is still relevant because normal traitors on mafiascum can't be converted to full mafia.

[implosion]

And those ridiculous amounts of town power aren't what we have. We have a lot but not enough to justify an entire extra mafia member with the mafia already having at least 3 PRs.

[implosion]

Assuming there is a town nurse and that every other townie is a VT and that the last scum is a goon (and assuming that dunnstral is just being obtuse), the setup would be:

Town: Jailkeeper, Vig, Doctor, Nurse, Backup nurse, 2-shot Motion Detector, Odd-night Cop, 2x Macho townie, 6x VT
vs
Jailkeeper, 2-shot commuter, Neapolitan, Goon

[implosion]

If there's a significant additional amount of power unclaimed I might be willing to believe that it's 5:14.

So I guess we should massclaim.

[implosion]

And a50 claims his jailkeep because i'm assuming you have more shots left and i can't believe you even if you say that you don't, so we need to ensure that he jailkeeps someone other than your target. In theory you can claim your target and he can not since we have a doctor.

He said its zach

I mean he claims who he's jailkeeping tonight.

But this should be open to a bit more discussion.

[implosion]

Alright. I'm the doctor (was nurse). I actually guessed that Varsoon might be backup nurse when he mentioned that one of the people who he could confirm should know, but I wasn't sure because confirmed role ≠ confirmed alignment. But alas.

N2 and N3 I protected Varsoon, trying to outguess which PR scum would go for and lol at how that worked out. Last night I protected Almost50, and heavily suspect that I stopped the kill. I realized during the night that it's probably 1 scum left and the jailkeeper is super broken now, so I realized protecting him was likely a free win. It's also possible Zach is scum and tried to kill whoever and was blocked. But I think it's very likely A50 was shot last night.

[implosion]

I'm not willing to assume that AGar and shannon were the cop checks.

You can also still shoot people I think. Haven't really thought about whether shooting or not shooting is a better strategy though. Will think about it tomorrow.

[implosion]

Yeah, I honestly can't really blame Dunnstral for his shots given that he was shooting them because he suspected them of fakeclaiming. I can of course point out the irony, but at least fakeclaiming limited vig as a full vig is pretty sensible because it can't screw much up.

For hopefully incredibly obvious reasons I'm very on board with an AGar lynch today. I said yesterday that everyone except Airick, AGar and A50 strikes me pretty significantly as town; this has not changed except that Airick's flip (and the vig being the only kill) makes me think A50 is town. I've never understood why AGar was townread. The motion detector result is very probably damning except for the extremely unlikely event that Zach claims a power role that would have targeted him. Another good reason to think AGar is scum is the way he claimed today: "VT. Whatever." That is not an attitude consistent with a town that has been steamrolling with 3/4 correct lynches. It's an attitude consistent with scum who is defeatist because they realize that there is almost no way then can win, mathematically.

I'd like to wait to hear Zach's claim in theory but.

VOTE: AGar

Dunn is right that A50 doesn't need to claim his target in advance; only way he dies tonight is if the last scum is a disruptive role of some kind, in which case it's not like his target is meaningful anyway.

@shannon:

The question I have here is why are the N2 and N3 kills on vanilla townies, if there is a role cop? Like surely if you'd investigated someone and found them to be VT, you'd pick someone else to NK? (Or I guess maybe they investigated one of us VT and took a punt that someone else would be a PR and got it wrong, but ??)

I mean, you're right. I don't actually think scum have a rolecop. Beeboy wasn't the scumkill.

How would they know about the doctor chain, though? Or why wouldn't they kill of the nurse or the backup nurse, and stop the chain that way?

Varsoon claimed on day two, iirc. When I say that they were afraid of the doctor chain, I mean that they may have not wanted to kill the backup nurse or the vig or the jailkeeper because they thought the doctor might be protecting them.

Is it better to vote for no lynch then, and extend our chances? Also, what are the implications if there are >1 mafia left?

It's better to lynch. If we nolynch and there's no kill we're back to the same position as before; if we nolynch and there is a kill then we get an innocent out of it (a50's jailkeep target) and actually possibly another innocent from the motion detector, but not necessarily. And we'll be down a person, probably me or Transcend or possibly dunnstral.

If there's more than one mafia left then if we lynch mafia today and the game doesn't end, the jailkeeper plan still works (and it's possible that there were only 4 mafia and the last scum is dunnstral the sk in theory). If we lynch town today and it turns out there are 2 mafia left then -shrug-. Scum still can't kill Almost50 for at least two nights because of me and Varsoon, so we have a couple chances to lynch scum and get the jailkeeper to be super strong. We also get motion detector results every night that they go for me or Varsoon which can give us even more info to work with, or they'll kill the motion detector and prolong A50's life.

[implosion]

Zach, claim. Everyone else has.

[implosion]

I disagree that Transcend is a higher protection priority than Almost50. Jailkeeper is the stronger role at this stage of the game by a wide, wide margin; the motion detector isn't even necessarily useful, as the last scum could potentially have a power role and be able to use it in conjunction with the nightkill to create essentially false guilties. The jailkeeper is essentially giving us confirmed town every time there's a kill (again assuming there is 1 mafia left which I am assuming pretty strongly).

the fact that we have JK makes a DOCTOR illogical

Oh well i guess peregrine is scum then oh wait

[implosion]

jesus christ zach have you read this game

[implosion]

doctor is normal

appending backup to a role is still normal, so nurse is normal

appending backup to a role is still normal, so backup nurse is normal.

[implosion]

Agar is town bc airick and agar interactions don't look like distancing plus transcends reaction test today
I wasn't sure airick was scum so i was thinking of the scenario in which airick flips town too

I also really disagree with this.

AGar's reaction to the test didn't look particularly convincing to me. Do you expect him to just say "welp, gg you caught me" if he's scum? Because he's an experienced player. How do you think he'd have reacted as scum?

And can you point me to interactions with airick that don't look like distancing?

[implosion]

I.

CLAIMED.

NURSE.

[implosion]

Alright. I'm the doctor (was nurse).

[implosion]

I seriously do hope that AGar is scum though, if he is scum then my reads this game have probably been the best reads I've ever had in a game of mafia.

And I still do think that he is.

If it isn't him then I honestly don't know between kraska/zach/boem/whoever else. Like every single person other than AGar I feel like I still feel I have really good reason to townread.

[implosion]

Sorry I missed that kraska:

I don't really see a casual vote on AGar as putting him in hot water. I can see it as distancing fairly easily. It's not like he was all-out assaulting AGar, or like he was putting him under a significant amount of pressure with his vote. He was at that point the only vote on AGar. That, to me, looks like he just didn't want to have to pick a side on the titus/vedith wagons, and so he went with a vote on AGar which I could easily see as either a vote to try to get another town wagon going, a vote to try to take the competing wagons as an opportunity to distance from AGar without a wagon forming on him, or him just voting AGar because he thought the vote would make himself look more town (the last of these being possible from either alignment).

So meh. It doesn't really make me feel one way or another. And I mean, consider that this was the height of the AGar wagon:

Titus (4): shannon, Lapsa, Varsoon, Wake88
Vedith (4): Transcend, AGar, Performer, PeregrineV
Wake88 (1): beeboy
beeboy (1): Boem_u_dusi
AGar (6): Airick10, Titus, Dunnstral, Almost50, podoboq, implosion
shannon (1): Vedith
Performer (1): Zachstralkita

Not Voting: Mirhawk

I know I'm town and I heavily suspect A50 is from his claim and Airick's flip. So Airick was probably the only scum on that wagon. With a 6-person wagon that looks, in this VC, IMO, pretty appealing to scum, I'd expect more scum to jump on it if it was on town. Vedith or Mirhawk could easily have jumped on the wagon (in fact mirhawk votes shannon 5 posts after this vc) and swung momentum onto the lynch that could have saved vedith, and doesn't come with the stigma of voting Titus if she flips town (I at least think that scum probably would have viewed it as a bit of an anathema to push the Titus wagon because of the nature of how the game would go after a mislynch on such active and controversial town). An AGar mislynch here would be an easy out for scum because he hadn't been very active so it would be a low-information mislynch in a situation where Vedith was under fire. But no one else went for it.

[implosion]

After voting AGar, Airick mostly parked his vote there, and only really said anything about AGar one more time in d1 (2426). So it's not like he was raking AGar over the coals.

[implosion]

pretty sure 99.99999% of the reasons we scum read boem is the avatar

This is actually kind of true though >.>

If Almost50 is a jailkeeper and implosion is nurse/doctor, can they just protect each other and win the game for town? Or is targeting the same player two times in a row disallowed?

Targeting the same player twice in a row is fine but if we do this scum will just kill A50 since my protection won't work because I'll be roleblocked.

kudos if you can figure this one out.

I actually do know this one because his first game on site was my large theme that just ended (which he also flaked from).

[implosion]

Yeah I guess I'll probably vote boem. Seems more likely than shannon or kraska at least at first glance. But I'm tired (orientation week at work) so I'm likely not gonna be devoting a ton of effort to this game in the near future.

I think it might be a better idea tonight for me to randomly protect between transcend/a50. In which case a50 should state his target beforehand in case he dies.

[implosion]

So then we have kraska, Zach, and shannon all pseudoclear, the former unless she's a strongman and the latter two unless they're ninjas.

But eugh. I think my first instinct was that A50 is scum here but thinking slightly more it might be Transcend. I don't think A50 would be likely to clear kraska after he had the opportunity to declare the same clear as Transcend did, although I guess he's pushing the ninja angle if he's scum.

Right now I'm inclined to say that Transcend is a mafia motion detector but need to think a bit more about it and need to be reminded of what reasons there are to think that Transcend is town.

[implosion]

I mean I kind of just say whatever comes to mind that early in the game, it's not like that was an iron clad read that can't possibly have been superseded by evidence in the other 99.5% of the game since I said it.

[implosion]

A lonely motion detector does not justify a ninja.

[implosion]

I think the play here is lynch Transcend, if he flips town then A50 jailkeeps shannon. I think I misspoke earlier, right? shannon is the only one motion-cleared, and zach and kraska are jailkeep-cleared.

[implosion]

I think the only reason I can remember to think Transcend was town was his being part of the Vedith blitz but that's less significant I think given that there were literally 0 scum on the wagon other than him, if he is the last scum. It's more than possible that he was simply clamoring to get onto the wagon so that there would be a busser. Although I haven't looked a ton at the vote's context.

[implosion]

If shannon were town she would have been killed long ago

uh, what?

Over the dunnstral and varsoon kills that were made? I fail to see the logic here.

[implosion]

All my reports have been accurate

In what way does this clear you?
For what reason can't you possibly be a mafia motion detector?

[implosion]

I think the play here is lynch Transcend, if he flips town then A50 jailkeeps shannon. I think I misspoke earlier, right? shannon is the only one motion-cleared, and zach and kraska are jailkeep-cleared.

This is still really obviously the plan :X

like, no-lynching is stupid. If scum no-kill then we gain no information, so we're essentially just giving scum the choice of if they want to kill or not. Lynching shannon I suppose technically works as well as lynching Transcend from a numbers standpoint but I'm pretty sure Transcend is scum between them at this point.

[implosion]

no :/

why would scum have a ninja to deal with a single weak power role

[implosion]

Roleblocker wouldn't work, kraska - roleblocked power roles receive "no result", not a result like "no motion."

Ninja is a passive role that bypasses things like motion detectors, trackers and watchers. It wouldn't make sense to put in a ninja to balance out a single very weak town power role, since it wouldn't interact with anything else.

[implosion]

I mean, I have no strong problems with nolynching. I just don't really see the point. It gives scum the option of killing and the option of doing nothing. It essentially gives them the option of either making nothing happen, or doing something of their choice.

The Varsoon kill is sort of strange but not really. To eliminate the existence of a doctor they have to kill us both and no motion was detected on Varsoon, which may have been the reason. It's also possible scum think I'm more likely to make the wrong decision today.

[implosion]

At work ATM. Randomly checked game. Confused. Will try to figure out after I get home.

[implosion]

It isn't shannon, that much I can say confidently. Only way it can conceivably be her is if she's a JOAT with shots of both ninja and strongman.

[implosion]

I am not yet fully awake, but I jailed shannon!!!! I figured if it was her she would be blocked and no NK will occur, and if it's not her then she would be the lynch unless it's proven she's not guilty. Now we know it's none of the VTs for sure. It's either me or implosion. Lynch me then him when I flip. Town win locked.

The problem is that this is somewhat unlikely from A50 scum. Which inclines me towards scum having a strongman. In which case holy shit the scumteam is strong. But w/e. If one of the vt claims is a full strongman then there will be words to whoever declared this setup balanced... if there are two scum left even more so. But etc.

Which means I need to look more closely at both zach and kraska.

[implosion]

I just realized.

@Mod:

@mod Can a Mafia member use a factional kill and individual action on the same night?

Can't tell ya.

Are you sure you can't? Because (quoting from the rules for normal games):

Mafia must specify which member is performing the factional kill each night. Mods may choose whether or not to allow Mafia power roles to perform their action as well as their factional kill on the same night or not, and should list this choice in their rules

So this information should be in your ruleset.

[implosion]

please stop.

We're thinking this through.

[implosion]

ah i'm stupid.

[implosion]

Well meh. So then a50 can have stopped the vig kill and also killed dunn in theory.

Ugh.

[implosion]

if kraska is trusting A50, I should be clear according to A50's claim so by extension I should be town in her eyes.

why aren't you clearing kraska and shannon based on this though. They're also clear if they're non-strongman scum. You're the same level of clear as they are.

[implosion]

No, that is the truth since you are confirmed and I believe A50.

I'm pretty sure we win if we lynch inside kraska/shannon.

And what do you make of the negative motion detector result on shannon?

[implosion]

i really fucking wish when i asked for ONE FUCKING DAY TO THINK THINGS THROUGH that people had fucking listened to that one fucking simple request

[implosion]

Given the nature of roles that have been flipped I think the only conceivable situation in which power roles' targets tonight matter is if Zach is a limited-shot strongman who is out of shots. To that end it would be helpful if A50 either jails zach or doesn't announce his target or follow a plan for the sake of following a plan. If he doesn't trust me then he should jailkeep me though.

It'd be fucking nice if you had you know not rushed when actually coordinating these things in advance is KIND OF IMPORTANT

[implosion]

i've put a lot of effort into this game

and my reads have not mattered AT ALL the past several days because people keep playing the game at a mile a minute when our iron grasp on the game has been slipping away

i'm actually pretty mad.

[implosion]

at the risk of adding a wifom element to the kill tonight, zach is very, very probably scum. Very, very, very probably. Assuming kraska flips town.

[implosion]

(and also note that there are a large number of things i'd like to review right now in the event that i die to back that up or contradict it but i'm going to sleep soon so)

[implosion]

see zach if we're both alive tomorrow and you want me to not lynch you you're going to have to make actual cogent arguments. Just a warning.

[implosion]

zach how can the last scum possibly be a strongman fypov. It can't be me because I'm role-confirmed. It can't be shannon because she had no motion on a night with a kill. It would have to be a50 and then your discussions are irrelevant and him being a strongman is much less relevant than you being a strongman. Like, post 6210 makes 0 sense.

Really as far as i'm concerned shannon is clear because she would literally HAVE to be a joat with shots of ninja & strongman and have used them perfectly. Just outside the realm of possibility.

The more I look at a50's claim and subsequent play the less it makes any sense whatsoever as scum. He doesn't strike me as the kind of player who would be audacious enough to say "lynch me then implosion" as scum today, or who would make the jailkeeper claim at the time he did to try to counterclaim Dunnstral. Zach strikes me as a player who is very definitely audacious enough to do the things that he's done (his selfvoting shenanigans, his callimg himself clear) as scum. They do 0 to convince me he's town.

[implosion]

Then please explain to me how shannon can be scum having been both jailkept and negatively motion detected during kills.

[implosion]

If you're a ninja the motion detector problem is easy to get around.

You yourself doubt A50 and encourage me to so you can't really be " cleared " by a JK if you don't believe the JK is a JK, enough to try and persuade me into voting the JK when I think it's clear what the real answer is?


I think you are actually the one in the corner.

But if she's a ninja then she's not a strongman... and if she's scum then a50 has to be town (assuming one scum left).

It's like you're not reading what we're saying. You don't get to simply declare "I'm town, and that isn't open to discussion." That simply isn't how the game works. You are, in my opinion, the strongest candidate for scum. I've made it very clear why i think so and you haven't directly addressed the one very simple reason that I think shannon is town.

[implosion]

Zach you've literally never played mafia with anyone who uses logic before have you

[implosion]

Let me spell this out nice and clear.

I don't give a shit if shannon disbelieves A50 but also trusts his ability to clear people as a jailkeeper. I don't give a shit about this for two reasons. The simpler is that it isn't actually logically inconsistent like you seem to be implying it is, at least, under the assumption that one scum remains. But the other reason is that

she is cleared by both a motion detector and a jailkeeper claim.

I don't care what she's saying; for her to be mafia, she would have to be an extremely specific role and have gotten very lucky. And the odds of that are just too low to even consider, not that I even find her play scummy in the first place (I frankly would likely be townreading her over you based on reads alone but I don't need to think about that anymore).

[implosion]

I'm effectively asking you a question and getting a response in an entirely different language.
I don't know that you're town. If you want me to believe that you are town (and if you are town and believe that I am town and shannon is scum, you should want this), then I need to know how you're reconciling your belief that shannon is scum with the actions that were claimed on her.

[implosion]

It's a matter of probability. She'd have to have an incredibly specific role, and have happened to use both of her abilities on precisely the correct nights. I am willing to bet the game on odds that slim, especially given that I think she looks town anyway.

[implosion]

Back from work. Fwiw, I protected A50, but I mostly couldn't think of any conceivable reason that who I'd protect could matter.

It might be weird, but it's possible to to have had a doctor + back up nurse without the presence of a nurse, so when the doctor goes then the backup nurse would become a nurse (i.e. backup doctor) without the presence of a doctor.

This isn't mechanically possible. A backup nurse's role is that when a nurse disappears, they become a nurse. Varsoon, as he stated, turned from a backup nurse into a nurse when the doctor died. If there were no nurse in the setup, then there would be no nurse to change into a doctor to cause Varsoon to change into a nurse. I am 100% role confirmed. Given the jail on me, the only way I can possibly be scum here is if I am a mafia nurse strongman. Which I know for a fact isn't the case but I think is pretty objectively clearly not the case.

I'm planning to put in a good amount of effort this weekend looking over things. This is my first 3p lylo in probably years. I really don't want to fuck it up :X.

[implosion]

I perused some isos over the course of today but didn't really get anywhere because I was distracted by other shiny objects. I'll do more tomorrow most likely.

[implosion]

I honestly think that the only evidence that really should be needed in favor of me being town is that I'm role-confirmed; unless you think that the mafia team consisted of a neapolitan, a 2-shot commuter, a jailkeeper and a

strongman nurse

I cannot be scum. I honestly think that scumteam is just objectively absurd.

I think my play also does speak to me being town, but I really think the foremost thing here is that my role being confirmed makes the jailkeep on me mean more than the jailkeep on Zach, similar to how shannon's motion detector result made the jailkeep on her mean more than the jailkeep on Zach. I think even the scumteam having a nurse here would be just pointless from a design standpoint (giving scum a 2-shot commuter, a jailkeeper as opposed to a roleblocker, AND a nurse against a single town killing role?)

As for my play, if I am scum then literally the [/i]only[/i] time I called

any

of my partners town was when I listed Nosferatu as a townread, specifically my

weakest

townread out of a set consisting of most of the player list, earlyish d1. Since then I called Vedith scum (I just thought AGar was scum more strongly), I was I think by far the primary one pushing Mirhawk as scum when if I were scum I easily could have swung a fair amount of weight onto a performer push instead of gimping the performer wagon from the get-go, and I think I was the first person to say we should look at Airick after Mirhawk. If we're judging on the basis of play I think I'm fairly obviously town on that basis as well.

A50, I agree with you that a lot of Zach's play appears town motivated. I've had a town read on him for most of the game, after all. But I really am somewhat confident that he's scum over you. Your rhetoric right now looks a whole lot more genuine to me than his rhetoric has the past few days. I don't think that him in particular having bussed early d1 is a towntell. Just look at the way he plays. His personality just screams to me "I bus as scum." And I didn't really realize this until recently because, well, the last few days I haven't really had time to formulate my thoughts coherently because we kept lynching extremely quickly. But Zach reads to me as the kind of player who would just try to take the game into his own hands as scum and not really give a shit about his partners, especially when

all three of them were lurking throughout d1.

From your point of view at least, I think on the basis of play alone, both me and Zach have pushed on scum a lot, but there are other better reasons to think that I'm town over him.

Anyway my bus is getting here so I'll have to elucidate more later. But don't rush this day.

[implosion]

Why the fuck would I be so reckless as scum when caution is the exact reason the last scum has made it to the final 3? It doesn't make sense. As scum, the objective is to not get lynched, not to appear town. And you can see that implosion is trying to not get lynched in his post.

implosion wouldn't have wrote those 3 extra paragraphs if he were town. Varsoon's role along with Peregrine's flip should have been the only reason he needed. Instead, he also says " but there are other better reasons to think that I'm town over him.", which is excessive and seems paranoid. It looks like he's just covering all his bases, but if he was honestly town there would be literally no reason to do that.

Okay this is just completely absurd. Not getting lynched is imperative for everyone, not just scum; me not wanting to be lynched is not a scumtell and implying that it's scummy to not want to be lynched is just ludicrous. I am somewhat paranoid, rightfully so, that whichever of you is town won't figure out that I'm town and that we'll lose that way. Unlike you, I don't believe that others are obligated to townread me for (at least at first) no stated reason; I'm going to do everything in my power to ensure a town win, and that involves both my read between you two being correct and me not being the lynch.

Meanwhile, today, you have wavered from calling a50 scum to saying you want to vote me to saying you want to a50 without giving a single reason for any of those three opinions at their respective times; your opinion is changing with the wind, and that just doesn't feel like a townie in LYLO desperately trying to figure out who scum is; it feels like scum in LYLO desperately trying to keep both options open, possibly because you feel like pushing A50 will look more natural but you don't think you can swing me to a mislynch on him. A50 meanwhile is making and questioning specific arguments and, generally, feels like he's genuinely trying to figure the situation today out. His words make it sound like he feels that there's weight behind the decision he's making.

[implosion]

What part of what I said are you calling objectively not true? And why do you say that?
And if it's that I don't think you look like you're trying to figure out who scum is today, in what way can you justify that you objectively appear to be scumhunting today?

[implosion]

I am curious what exactly in those posts you're referring to, Zach; I think I know what you're referring to (in which case I have more questions of course) but. If you could explain things clearly rather than just pointing to posts and irreverently declaring them scumclaims it would be much more helpful.

[implosion]

(this is not a hammer)

[implosion]

Anyway I've honestly kind of been waiting to actually commit mentally to rereading until one of you voted the other >.>

I don't think I've ever actually been the hammer vote in 3p lylo on mafiascum, impressively. I've been the crossvoting townie and the crossvoting scum but never the hammer as far as I can remember.

I'm going to ISO scum mentions of each other and both of you and compile a list of the biggest things that are blocking me in my head from seeing this game either way. I have by no means made my decision yet. I really don't think that A50 is just a scum goon (it's possible) but one possibility that I thought of on the bus home that I'm also entertaining is that he could be a mafia backup jailkeeper. Otherwise idk why they wouldn't have just had airick claim the jk if they wanted to. They wouldn't know what power roles were in the game at that point, could easily have been caught by a tracker or watcher etc. Maybe. He could also just be vanilla scum potentially.

[implosion]

Alright. Let's go ahead and compile a list of reasons right now for A50 being town:

Spoiler:

-The claim. Although I agree with Zach that the logic for it isn't great as town, it's a train of thought that i can certainly see happening. I just really don't see a ton of scum motivation for the d2 jailkeeper claim. A50 wasn't really under pressure, the result doesn't help frame anyone, it sticks his neck out there and limits the scumteam's future options for claiming, he risks drawing a counterclaim, it might have other interactions with roles in the setup making it a bad claim, it might be verifiably false by a tracker/watcher/rolecop (the former two assuming the scum didn't have two full jailkeepers), etc, etc.

-The no-kill. I protected A50 that night so if he is scum he chose to no-kill on n4. I don't see motivation for him to no-kill there: he has plenty of great kill targets (like dunnstral and Varsoon) and he'd need to whittle down the pool of town PRs quickly as he'd be screwed if, say, Dunn gets off enough shots. If Zach is scum then he's probably a limited shot strongman and so he realized "I got blocked last night, I need to use the strongman tonight" or something like that, which is a perfectly reasonable explanation for the lack of a kill.

-The willingness to be lynched. 6099 feels genuine. I just don't think he opens the day that way as scum with that much willingness to die. In 6168 he looks like he's legitimately trying to prove that there's no mafia strongman, which would seal his doom if he were scum. 6239 is also a post that's very unlikely to have been faked (I specifically highly doubt that he's lying in that post about his understanding of the strongman role). If he is being honest then I cannot imagine him committing actual suicide as scum by elucidating exactly why scum would have to be either him or me.

-Dunn's second vig on Zach failing. Why does A50 jail Zach that night if he's scum? I guess he might want to keep Zach around as a mislynch but he'd know that killing Dunn + not jailing Zach would lead to two kills on town that night which would subsequently put the game in evens, which would be very advantageous to him since he'd be able to guarantee a kill each night.

-The Vedith wagon. This is what it looks like if A50 is scum:

Titus (3): Lapsa, Varsoon, Wake88
Vedith (10): AGar, Performer, PeregrineV, Zachstralkita, beeboy, Titus, Transcend, Boem_u_dusi, shannon, Dunnstral
AGar (4):

Airick10, Almost50

, podoboq, implosion
shannon (2):

Mirhawk, Vedith

Not Voting: None

This just looks absurd. Scum parked their votes on two other wagons like this, and no one wanted to bus/distance from Vedith? I really imagine at least some scum would be voting Vedith here because he was being pretty scummy and I think scum would want to gain some cred from a likely lynch target.

Gonna cut this off for now and look at these last couple posts.

[implosion]

Same reason why I jailed YOU. I do jail my town reads for protection.

So uh, you're contradicting yourself here if I'm reading things correctly...

[implosion]

You imply in the post I linked that you jailed him because you thought his last-minute hammer was scummy, as far as I can tell.

[implosion]

"I started getting ideas". The "act" was scummy, alright, but my "idea" was that he was intentionally trying to draw a NK. I didn't want to lose him on N1 bc he is a very GOOD asset to town.

Ah. This makes sense. Actually also a pretty significant towntell since that's a line of thought you'd be unlikely to think of faking as scum.

Have you played significantly with Dunn?

I'm probably going to sleep soon so I'll investigate more tomorrow. Zach, pretty much if you want to convince me that A50 is scum you need to start by debunking what I wrote in 6315 because I feel like most of the reasons in that post are pretty solid.

[implosion]

well apparently i'm still awake so

1. How does it risk drawing a counterclaim if scum have a JK? If scum had a JK, why the fuck would town? You know why I see it happening? because it happened.

a) scum having a role does not mean town doesn't have that role... I mean, you were accepting A50 as town up until today.
b) this is one of six reasons I gave why the claim doesn't make sense with a50 as scum. You're engaging with a tiny fraction of the argument I'm making.

2. So I can be a strongman but A50 can't? You know... he's not a JK...

I mean, if A50 is scum he's probably not a strongman (he could be but there's nothing that points to it). I don't understand how this is refuting or addressing my point at all, I still don't see why A50 would have no-killed on that night, for the reasons that I stated.

3. I've had a bunch of selfvoting shenanigans this game and tons of occasions where I did not fear death. When A50 acts like this, it is somehow convincing to you but I am doubted still? Dude, town was in autowin before I lynched a bunch of townies. Also, the post that immediately follows that is kraska voting ME, which I think proves something... and you should know what it is.

There are important differences between your selfvoting shenanigans and what he's done:
-You were essentially just selfvoting whenever anyone called you scum as if to say "lol fuck you." That to me doesn't sound like a genuine willingness to be lynched whereas A50 laying out the reasons for his willingness and essentially painting himself into a corner with his definition of what a strongman is does.
-You strike me as much more... not sure what the right word is, maybe risky. Based on what I glean of A50's personality based on his play this game I just don't really see him taking the "kill me then him" tact as scum, a tact that I could easily see you taking in a situation in which you view yourself as behind. Note that this point is less important than the first.

I also don't know what you're getting at with kraska voting you.

4. What exactly proves that I was jailed? I'm VT. It's not like I have an action. You seem to think A50 is still an RB, when this could have been faked with Airick's assistance while he was alive.

The fact that you lived through the night that Dunn died proves that you were jailed that night. Airick was dead at that point. Dunnstral almost certainly shot you, I think. He shot beeboy the night before and there was no scumkill with a jail on you, and he'd been airing suspicion of you all game. You'd be the natural shot that night. How else can you possibly explain his vig not going through? Do you think he shot A50 (who I protected)? Because I don't think it's feasible that he'd have shot A50 that night.

5. Scum have to bus? Obviously not, and it worked well since he's in LYLO. He bussed Airick at the end, sure. Did you see where I pointed out how bad that whole thing looked?

Again, you're not engaging with the actual points I'm making... I specifically think that scum would have wanted to have

at least someone

bussing Vedith for towncred because he replaced into a lurky slot and was acting pretty scummy and was, once he replaced in, a pretty obvious potential lynch target. You're ignoring almost all of the points I'm making.

[implosion]

I'm sort of just waiting to have time to do a last pass or two through some things (mostly scum isos) which will be this weekend.

[implosion]

Alright.

Spoiler: Scum ISOs

Scum ISO #1: Mirhawk.

Mirhawk->a50: almost nothing. He quotes one post and agrees with Varsoon on one off-comment about finding A50 scummy. Not a ton to go off of.
Mirhawk->Zach: Early on, asks dunn why he's scum. Then calls Zach scummy, eventually calling the numbers with names scanned-in thing "outrageously fake" and voting him after catching up. In the VC before Mirhawk votes Zach, there are 3 votes on Zach (shannon, nosferatu, Titus). Between that VC and Mirhawk's vote a lot of pressure formed on Mirhawk, and he caught up. I think I can see this as either distancing or trying to get more pressure on a townie. But the distancing angle is sort of bolstered by the "scum listed a bunch of players, they'll probably list a scumbuddy more often than not" tell, because after his catchup the players he listed as scummy were Zach, Transcend, Sick, shannon, AGar.

Another thing from Mirhawk that I'm reminded of that I think points to A50-town is his claim - it seems unlikely that scum would claim even-night doc when they already have someone on their team claiming a protective role.

He later calls Zach "super town" for reasons I cannot determine at all.

Nosferatu has minimal interactions, a couple but nothing significant. Vedith talks a fair amount with Zach but never really says anything about him, and never references a50. Not much I can glean here either.

Only real thing I see in Airick->A50 is post 3222, in which he lists 6 people including A50, mirhawk and 4 town to analyze. He calls two townies townish, one townie + mirhawk + a50 null, and one townie (me) scummy. Ever so slightly evidence in favor of a50 town i think. Not extremely significant but he'd likely not want to leave both his scumbuddies at null.

For Zach: we again have the "scum lists a bunch of people, there's likely a buddy in there" tell in 2280 where he decides arbitrarily to examine the four mason claimants, all of whom but zach have flipped town. In fact the exact same thing happens again later:

Also, I'd like to highlight those who were voting Vedith before that night. AGar, Performer, PV, Zach, and I'll include beeboy because I don't think beeboy intended to start that two hour wagon. Isn't it reasonable to suggest one of these may very well be scum sitting on this wagon (not thinking it would escalate like it did)? Zach, since you were on Nos/Vedith for most of the game... I figured after the Dunn hammer that you'd be thrilled. Instead... here's your first post after the hammer.

He really drills zach with questions in that post but doesn't really commit to anything. He eventually says that he suspects zach+performer out of the list, but never really does anything on this zach suspicion for a few days until he's being run up himself.

Most of the things in here either make me feel very little overall, or lean Zach as scum. In light of that and that I really still think all of the points I brought up earlier for A50town are pretty solid, I don't think my read is going to change at this point.

VOTE: Zach

Sorry if I'm wrong (and wp to whichever one of you is scum because this really isn't as direct of a decision as it might look like from what I've been saying, I have a lot of paranoia >.>)

[implosion]

Damn.

WP a50.

[implosion]

no, i didn't, because that day raced by before i could get a grasp on anything that was happening in it :/

[implosion]

As frustrated as I am with days 5-8 my bad in lylo. I can point to a lot of other things over the course of the game that led to lylo being a worse situation than it needed to be, but ultimately lylo is my bad.

It was a good game overall though. I'm happy with my play up until lylo more or less.

Oh and yeah I really love the setup design and it sparked some things in my head about the definition of backupr oles being possibly ill-defined? maybe. But I really like the idea of the backup nurse. It's cool both from just an idea perspective and from the perspective of potentially reducing swing.

[implosion]

Some more stuff.

@beeboy: this is why we don't randomly fakeclaim as town. Please don't randomly fakeclaim as town in the future . You should have explicitly claimed on day four as an odd-night cop assuming you didn't have some good reason not to - you have two results, you're not going to get another for two more nights, and there's a vig actively shooting in the non-PR claims who thinks that your miller claim doesn't add up.

@dunn: apparently I'm guessing you shot a50 the night you died and I saved him. This could have been avoided if we had planned out nights between all of the living claimed PRs better so that there was no confusion between you and a50 possibly targeting the same person, or just through better planning in general. This is why I wanted you to explicitly claim that you were a full vig, so that we could actually plan night actions around each other, but it never wound up happening... I mean, I would have disagreed with you shooting a50 at that point, but at the very least we could have coordinated in a way that would have made your action not useless.

@transcend: sorry about missing the plan to confirm a50 as having blocking powers - I didn't see it at the time but in retrospect it's a smart idea, and if I'd seen it I might have protected you that night :/. Although iirc I was more suspicious of you than of a50 at that point.

[implosion]

yeah podoboq as soon as i realized what you were going for with your name i was like oh, that's neat.

[implosion]

so yo implosion, did the fact that I left a bad impression on you since the beginning of this game factor into how it ended up?

You left a mixed impression on me. The main negative part of it was just from spamming the thread and fakeclaiming mason on d1 >.>. I don't think that my impression of you biased me although I could theoretically be wrong. Ultimately I felt like I just couldn't trust the reasons I had to townread you (which were mostly based on your play feeling town at a more gut level, which felt like the reason everyone had been townreading you) and I could trust the reasons I had to townread a50.

[implosion]

Congratulations everyone, we are witness to the end of an era, the last large normal played in an exclusive subforum.

[implosion]

And it looks like the Bomb crumbs did in fact put Scum on edge as I wanted it to. Interesting.

And let's not forget that it also drew a vig shot >_>

Like I really can't fault Dunnstral for a lot of his shooting even if he did entirely shoot town. He correctly figured out that both Wake and beeboy were fakeclaiming.

[implosion]

(entirely shot town, with the exception of the commuting mirhawk)