Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[thenewearth]

Alright...tne is town. 1723 just wrapped up. Exact same play style. Can you please start participating a bit more? Your behavior there got you lynched D1.

Yes but, I don't like bragging but, I also caught scum day 1 and day 1.5 that way

[PenguinPower]

Alright...tne is town. 1723 just wrapped up. Exact same play style. Can you please start participating a bit more? Your behavior there got you lynched D1.

I am curious about this though - were you just randomly meta-ing her?

In my first newbie game, I made a correct scum-call based on a his play in a game that ended in the middle of our D2 - though too late for me to do anything with. I've been watching ongoing games which have our current players in it waiting for them to end to see if I can do the same. 1723 happened to end and tne's play lined up the same as her play here. I think that's the best information I have to go on with anyone in our current game.

[shannon]

Good luck reading the game that Implosion and I just finished!

[PenguinPower]

I've been sticking with newbie games...I've played one none newbie game and I had trouble reading that one.

[PenguinPower]

I mean, in 335, you very heavily imply that you find tne's behavior scummy, asking "it's scummy to do this, right?"

I wasn't heavily implying anything. It was a question - as I've been told that by one other person in one other game - and if that is true then the behavior could be seen as scummy if not remedied. What happened two hours later? Posting. I disagreed with the value, but at least she started participating. Sorry if you think my "jabbing" is scummy, but my scumlean has been prodded and is not participating, and questioning TNE was the only thing leading to discussion. Hell, it led to you questioning me, which is at least moving the game.

All that is moot now, though. TNE is my strongest town read at this point.

Towntelling isn't just about contributing; nothing you've said so far has really read to me as particularly indicative of town, whereas I can cite things (and have cited things in my ISO) for all of those players you listed that I believe are indicative of town. Even if you're town, in what way is it ridiculous of me to have those reads? It'd simply mean that more of my reads are incorrect.

I didn't say anything about your reads being ridiculous...though maybe your reading comprehension?

[shannon]

Alrighty, going back and ISOing Jibs I've decided he's FOS, i.e. the tone isn't the only thing that he's faking.

In 171 he seems like scum who has more info than everyone else. He seems so all-over the game that he can not only suggest scum partners for Chrimi, he can also suggest town reads based on those scum reads.

171 - "

First, I had some reasonably strong associative reads at that point in the game, and I thought other town players would as well. You seemed to be putting a fair amount of effort into the game, and it was surprising that you couldn't pick a scumpartner for Chrimi.

I think me, Rocnix, tne, and especially imp all would have been good choices from the perspective of town!PP, but even if you had different reads, that would have been fine, as long as there was some reasonable explanation"

"Second, I didn't like your townreads on me and imp. At that point, if you think Chrimi is scum, you should be very suspicious of imp for scumreading her, making an incredibly weak push on her, and then leaving his vote on you. Additionally, you should be suspicious of me because I voted Chrimi, changed my vote in 66, and said basically fuckall about her alignment after that while going after other players"

Later, in 243, two things stand out to me. It sounds like he's trying to suggest (but stealthily) a policy lynch on 0x40. It also sounds like he's trying to make up for some over-confidence by saying how his reads are bad. Notice how back in 171 he was full of suggestions and game theory advice for another player, and now he's no good at the game.

243 "While it might be nice to policy 0x40, we absolutely cannot afford to right now" -- " I'm just not reading the game very well at this point =/"

Now again in 266, Jibs is reading the game poorly, and apologising for discounting someone else's reads. This seems like he has realised his previous over confidence might seem scummy, and he's trying to back away from making strong claims.

"I don't mean to discount your reads, especially when I'm reading the game so poorly. I will definitely keep af and pp in mind as possible lynches. If you are town, I think it is likely that we will need your vote in order to lynch scum, and I am very happy that you took the time to post a read wall"

Finally, 283, Jibs gives himself an excuse for any future changes-of-read, he's happy to follow the herd.

"The point is, three different people called me out on my rocnix read, and it's not possible for scumteam to be you+pp+imp. I don't think you would change a read based on people disagreeing, but I 100% would"


Anyone else see what I see?

[Jibs]

Hello Shannon.

Later, in 243, two things stand out to me. It sounds like he's trying to suggest (but stealthily) a policy lynch on 0x40. It also sounds like he's trying to make up for some over-confidence by saying how his reads are bad. Notice how back in 171 he was full of suggestions and game theory advice for another player, and now he's no good at the game.

I was overconfident at the start of the game, and this became obvious to me as it went on. As I've mentioned before, this is my first time playing forum mafia. I'm starting to realize that almost everything in this game is random noise, so it's easy to have strong feelings early in the game which later get destroyed by disconfirming evidence.

Throughout the early game, I was convinced that there was 1 mafia voting for Chrimi, and 1 waffling about voting for her, and everything made sense through this lens. As the game progressed, I had to step back from this theory, and it all became murky.

Also, I've already commented on the policy thing, but let me be more clear: it's bullshit.

Now again in 266, Jibs is reading the game poorly, and apologising for discounting someone else's reads. This seems like he has realised his previous over confidence might seem scummy, and he's trying to back away from making strong claims.

"I don't mean to discount your reads, especially when I'm reading the game so poorly. I will definitely keep af and pp in mind as possible lynches. If you are town, I think it is likely that we will need your vote in order to lynch scum, and I am very happy that you took the time to post a read wall"

In retrospect, questioning Chrimi's reads was kind of a dick move which had no place in this game.

Finally, 283, Jibs gives himself an excuse for any future changes-of-read, he's happy to follow the herd.

"The point is, three different people called me out on my rocnix read, and it's not possible for scumteam to be you+pp+imp. I don't think you would change a read based on people disagreeing, but I 100% would"

This point seems reasonable enough. As I've said, that post should give you some context to view how I play the game, but it is in no way a valid defense.

Your narrative is that I started off with strong reads, then became increasingly fuzzy, and then made excuses for that. That is definitely true. It's up to you whether this is town losing track of an increasingly complex game, or scum just looking for an out.

You've said a bit about the lynch pool, can you say who we are not lynching?

[Jibs]

Hello all.

I'm kind of stuck in confbias mode on imp right now. Before I opened the thread I was thinking "if imp digs in his heels on pp then he's mafia, but if he reevaluates then he is also mafia". I'm suspicious of the fact that he never reevaluated his townreads on me and 0x40--players who came into the game very strong and then dropped off rather conveniently.

Imp has certainly given some reads based on agenda rather than tone, but his approach to the game seems to mostly be "it's not what they say, it's how they say it". His case on pp is noticeably lacking in this respect considering how in depth it is.

I also feel, when I try to read waaay to into his texts, that he is giving himself an awful lot of plausible deniability in that regard.

AF seems to be having a lot of fun with this game. I think that probably makes him town--it's hard to fake as scum. In face-to-face games, scum is sometimes amused by an interaction which looks very different to someone who knows which players are town... but I feel like that has a very different texture than AF's straightforward enjoyment.

[shannon]

Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).

[Chrimi]

Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).

Sounds good to me

VOTE: AF

[PenguinPower]

Looks like Rocnix isn't coming back, and we won't get a replacement until D2. I will not support a TNE lynch, and I'm hesitant on Chrimi and AF. I'm willing to pursue Jibs or 0x40. Jibs has been more involved, but to what end...I don't know.

UNVOTE: Rocnix
VOTE: 0x40

[Jibs]

Hello all.

VOTE: 0x40. I believe that is L-2.

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

tne: same question.

Chrimi: you still tne+af?

[PenguinPower]

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

Probably...given my reads.

[Chrimi]

Hello all.

VOTE: 0x40. I believe that is L-2.

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

tne: same question.

Chrimi: you still tne+af?

Nah, I just dislike tne's playstyle. Not sure who AF could be with.

[Jibs]

It feels a little too easy for scum to vote their scumbuddy right now because they know town wants more information before the hammer. Does everyone feel okay about declaring intent if they are exceptionally confident that we are hitting scum?

PP: I see your point, only 7 town in this game.

[shannon]

I'm going to wait for the official VC before I vote

[AstralFlare]

@mod VLA two days I'm really sick and really tired

sorry town

[innocentvillager]

Mod Notes

Looking for a Rocnix replacement.

Prodding 0x40.

AstralFlare is V/LA until Friday.

	VOTECOUNT 1.5
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Jibs
2. AstralFlare	Chrimi	1
3. PenguinPower	implosion	1
4. 0x40	thenewearth, PenguinPower, Jibs	3 (L-2)
5. Rocnix
6. Chrimi	0x40	1
7. thenewearth	AstralFlare, Rocnix	2
8. shannon
9. implosion

Not voting: shannon

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

[implosion]

I'm kind of stuck in confbias mode on imp right now. Before I opened the thread I was thinking "if imp digs in his heels on pp then he's mafia, but if he reevaluates then he is also mafia". I'm suspicious of the fact that he never reevaluated his townreads on me and 0x40--players who came into the game very strong and then dropped off rather conveniently.

I do want to re-evaluate you. I still feel like 0x is probably town a bit more strongly. But I mean, I'd

like

to re-evaluate all my reads - it's just a matter of time. I'm in my third week at a new job and am still settling in to an extent to my new apartment, so I don't have a ton of free time - certainly enough to play, but not enough to re-evaluate my reads quite as much as I'd like to ideally. It is also d1 and re-evaluating reads is usually more useful on later days when there are flips for context.

I didn't say anything about your reads being ridiculous...though maybe your reading comprehension?

Uh...

To call their contributions townish, and to say that I have done nothing townish, is ridiculous.

Literally my calling their contributions townish is me giving townreads on them and my calling things you've done scummy and not calling your contributions townish is me giving a scumread on you. That's literally what reads are...

[implosion]

Actually scratch me being more confident on 0x than on you. I'd say you're two of my weaker reads at this point. I think if I go with my gut at this moment the people I have no interest in lynching today are shannon, af, and chrimi.

0x's jibs scumread actually feels more off to me than his chrimi read. It feels similarly like he's just latching on to something and pushing it, but it feels more like he's doing it because he's realizing people aren't interested in the chrimi push or like he feels like he's supposed to have more than one scumread at this point. It just doesn't feel like it evolved naturally.

[implosion]

Not really speaking as IC but this is advice that's generally applicable to a lot of games:

We are starting to close in on deadline (4 days away with a replacement pending) so it might be worth it to start consolidating votes soon, within the next couple of days. It's at the point where we're not going to get a ton out of continuing the day, and I think we're going to be better off if we end the day soonish. I think I mentioned it earlier but a lot of the stronger players on MS are of the opinion that towns often tend to drag days out longer than necessary, which can lead to apathy. This is especially true d1 when we're dragging out the day with no flipped information.

Looking a bit more at 0x he went from slight town to "scummiest by far" on jibs in the span of 8 posts and jibs mentioning the possibility of a policy lynch in passing. Actually,

@0x40: is there any reason other than the "nice to policy" post from Jibs that caused this shift from you between 237 and 245? Because you had been calling him town, then suddenly call him the scummiest player in the game in 245 seemingly for one thing, and then six posts later in 251 you suddenly have a plethora of reasons for scumreading Jibs that seemingly weren't influencing you at the time when you posted 237. You heavily cite his reads list seeming overconfident, but that same reads list had already been posted when you made post 237, yet you were calling him slight town at that point. I'm curious about the mental process behind your read on Jibs forming in that span of time.

[0x40]

@0x40: is there any reason other than the "nice to policy" post from Jibs that caused this shift from you between 237 and 245?

Not really.

Because you had been calling him town, then suddenly call him the scummiest player in the game in 245 seemingly for one thing,

I think that reason alone was big enough to justify that.

and then six posts later in 251 you suddenly have a plethora of reasons for scumreading Jibs that seemingly weren't influencing you at the time when you posted 237.

Plethora? I only had 3 reasons.
1. Policy thing.
2. Extreme overconfidence backed up with silly reasons.
3. Wants a less than average SE to not replace.
1 and 3 were influencing me at the time. 2 is a minor reason compared to the other two, that I noticed after I viewed his ISO, which was after I called him scummy in #245.

You heavily cite his reads list seeming overconfident, but that same reads list had already been posted when you made post 237, yet you were calling him slight town at that point. I'm curious about the mental process behind your read on Jibs forming in that span of time.

Overconfidence could easily be explained by not being very good at mafia, so I didn't think much of it when I said I had a slight townread on him. The other 2 reasons are why he's my strongest scumread at the moment.

[shannon]

OK, good, VOTE: 0x40

This is L-1 (one more vote to lynch), please no one vote without explicitly stating intent and giving time for 0x40 to respond.

[thenewearth]

is it time for me to shout?

[Chrimi]

Intent to hammer.

Please claim your role, 0x40.