Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Korlash]

Sorry about that... I will be posting up to date stuff later tonight! No worries there. If someone does hammer before I get back and the thread is locked I will word up any reply I woulda made today and post it at the beginning of day two. Just so it doesn't look like I was trying to pass today off without content. Sorry.. very busy and what not...

[originality]

This is for the good of everyone.

unvote, vote dybeck

[vollkan]

To summarise everybody's suspicions at this point:

I am going by people's most recent posts. I don't pretend for this to be correct entirely (other than for myself), but it should provide a good overview of things.

vollkan

AlyG

= 0% (he

could

be mafia). +20% if dybeck is cop. I would need to reread

shaft.ed

= 20% -5% if dybeck is mafia. +10% if dybeck is cop.

Elias

= 65%. +10% if dybeck is mafia. -5% if dybeck is cop.

Gemelli

= 55%. +15% if dybeck is mafia. -5% if dybeck is cop.

Korlash

= 60%. -5% if dybeck is mafia. +10% if dybeck is cop.

Lucienne

= 55%. +10% if dybeck is mafia.

dybeck

= 80%

Orig

= 100% (75% on behaviour). Assumed SK.

Elias_the_thief

Scum

dybeck (mafia)
Orig (SK)

Likely scum

Lucienne
Gemelli
Korlash

Town

shaft.ed
vollkan

Korlash

In descending order of scumminess

1) dybeck
2) Orig
3) Elias
4) Vollkan
5) Gemelli
6) shaft.ed
7) AlyG and Lucienne

AlyG

Gemelli

I am unsure and do not want to guess. Gemelli, please post your list in any format.

Lucienne

scummy

Korlash

"Not anti-town"

vollkan
shaft.ed

All else is unclear. Please clarify Lucienne

Orig

dybeck: 100%.
Lucienne: 85%
Korlash: 60%
vollkan: 10%
shaft.ed: 10%
AlyG: 0%
Gemelli: 5% .
originality: 0%
Elias: 50%.

shaft.ed

No coherent list.

He did list scum as:
1. originality
2. dybeck
2. Oman

Please make such a list when you can shaft.ed

dybeck

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

[vollkan]

I cross-posted.

I'm very pleased I got that post in on time.

[Korlash]

Hey I got my post coming... I will proabbly need about an hour to fully get all the past few days in... so if Stree gets on before I post it perhaps he can find it in his heart to hold up a second?

[vollkan]

Mods generally don't give "extra time". Twilight usually ends when the mod notices the hammer and locks the thread down.

[Gemelli]

Well, thus endeth Day 2.

My scumdar (really quick, and off the top of my head):

AlyG = 10%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Vollkan = 55%
Lucienne = 60%
Korlash = 60%
dybeck = 75%
Orig = 90%

Vollkan, I like the if/then analysis you did, but I don't have time to do it myself tonight. Will think longer and will post my thoughts when D3 starts up.

[Streeflo]

End of Day 2 Votecount #36!

dybeck (5) - AlyG, vollkan, Korlash, shaft.ed, originality
originality (1) - dybeck

Not voting: Lucienne, Elias_the_Thief, Gemelli

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch!

The plane had gone for long hours without any electrical failures. The passengers were groaning, and the pilot was bored of his mind. And there were still scum on the plane!

Eventually, through the arguments and while accusations, people began to point fingers at dybeck. He looked around wildly, screaming of his innocence.
Alas, 5 people did not believe him, and proceeded to open the pressure door and shove

dybeck,

Mafia Goon

, right out the window. His screams ran through the air as he fell, until the door was shut and there was no more noise.

Suddenly the lights went off. Seems like for some strange reason, every time the plane door is opened, the lights go off. Either that or there is some strange mod-god out there that really sucks at flavor.

dybeck,

Mafia Goon

lynched Day 2

Nightchoice deadline: One Week MAX
Day will start when all choices have been received.

[Streeflo]

Day will start at Night Choice deadline to prevent metagaming.

[Streeflo]

The overhead lights flicker on... Day 3 starts

and the passengers look around once more at their surroundings. Someone quickly counts heads... 7 people.

"Oh crap, who died this time?" someone muttered.
"I

thought

I heard a scream when the lights were off." said someone else.

There appears to be new bloodstains on the wall near the cabin. Red is sprayed all over the walls, and some is dripping off the chairs.

And the body of

shaft.ed,

Cop

lies slumped, with his back against the wall. His whole body is bruised, and it appears he has died from a severe concussion.

You may have already lynched one scum, but there is still evil on the plane! GO LYNCH GO!

With

7

alive it takes

4

to chuck someone off the plane without a parachute.

[vollkan]

Damn. We lose shaft.ed the player and our cop. On the other hand, I was right about dybeck.

First up, there is now an increased likelihood of Orig actually being a vig. Two reasons:
1) He did not NK (thankyou Orig)
2) He hammered dybeck very quickly, suggesting he knew dybeck was BSing about the guilty investigation.

Now, updated scumdar (reflecting the figures from yesterday):

vollkan

AlyG

= 0%

Elias

= 75%

Gemelli

= 70

Korlash

= 55%.

Lucienne

= 55%.

Orig

= 65%

Now, Dybeck-Elias:

My favourite quote of the game so far:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

Also, dybeck's last scumdar:

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

My read is this: Orig is at 100% because we now know Orig is a rival killing faction to dybeck. shaft.ed is at 80% because shaft.ed is a very useful townie who dybeck wants dead. Lucienne is at 70% possibly, as Orig said, as distancing; I am unsure of this. Elias is at 30% so that he appears reasonably pro-town, without being imperiled. I am at 20% is a shameless effort to buddy up and Gemelli is at 10% as an effort to embroil a townie should dybeck turn up scum.

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

More possible distancing to Lucienne.

Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Elias and Gemelli look most pro-town. How very interesting.

I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

More of the same

Oman never once commented on Gemelli outside of these references. However, dybeck did make a fairly rabid attack on Dr. BS in 222 and continued this in 286.

In 95, dybeck very politely answered a question by Elias. In 981:

And hey Elias, welcome back!!

Aww...scumlove <3

So yeah, unsurprisingly

Vote: Elias_the_thief

[Korlash]

My read is this: Orig is at 100% because we now know Orig is a rival killing faction to dybeck. shaft.ed is at 80% because shaft.ed is a very useful townie who dybeck wants dead. Lucienne is at 70% possibly, as Orig said, as distancing; I am unsure of this. Elias is at 30% so that he appears reasonably pro-town, without being imperiled. I am at 20% is a shameless effort to buddy up and Gemelli is at 10% as an effort to embroil a townie should dybeck turn up scum.

You completely ignored me here! Man I feel left out T_T


... So we did have a cop... that sucks... I need to reread his posts to see i he let any of his investigations slip... *sigh*

[vollkan]

Sorry, Korlash.

In your case, it looks like he was just trying to get rid of an easy target, though it could be bussing.

And yes, any investigation clues will earn you a cookie.

[Korlash]

A whole cookie?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? o.O

....

T_T Happy days are here!!!!!

[Elias_the_thief]

Damn. We lose shaft.ed the player and our cop. On the other hand, I was right about dybeck.

First up, there is now an increased likelihood of Orig actually being a vig. Two reasons:
1) He did not NK (thankyou Orig)
2) He hammered dybeck very quickly, suggesting he knew dybeck was BSing about the guilty investigation.

Alright. The first reason seems to hold up, though the second one is iffy, and I still feel that I presented a good case for him being SK yesterday.

Now, Dybeck-Elias:

My favourite quote of the game so far:

Elias... you must have an opinion on it... help me out here!

I don't have an definate explanation for this, but the thing that I believe might hve made him say this is that I was the one who supported the Orig lynch for the longest, and because I held that I believed Orig to be SK (which I still do now). Thus, he chose to appeal to the person most likely to support his opinion.

Also, dybeck's last scumdar:

orig: 100%
korlash: 90%
shaft.ed: 80%
Lucienne: 70%
Elias: 30%
vollkan: 20%
Gemelli: 10%
AlyG: 0%

My read is this: Orig is at 100% because we now know Orig is a rival killing faction to dybeck. shaft.ed is at 80% because shaft.ed is a very useful townie who dybeck wants dead. Lucienne is at 70% possibly, as Orig said, as distancing; I am unsure of this. Elias is at 30% so that he appears reasonably pro-town, without being imperiled. I am at 20% is a shameless effort to buddy up and Gemelli is at 10% as an effort to embroil a townie should dybeck turn up scum.

And my read on that is that it's for the most part wifom. There are about 3 or 4 instances where you assume that he is doing one thing or another, and that's not reliable at all. You're assuming theres something wrong with me being at 30%, but never really attack

me

.

1. No kill
2. Oman
3. Vollkan
4. Lucienne

More possible distancing to Lucienne.

A possiblilty. Not too strong a tell on its own.

Certainly, if I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by you, Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks.

Elias and Gemelli look most pro-town. How very interesting.

Well, what about me did YOU find suspicious, besides this supposed connection to Dy? I havent seen you post any independant reasons why I shouldnt be considered town.

I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK. AlyG is town but I stand to be corrected on anyone else. Is that un-wishy-washy enough?

More of the same

All I see is a consistent standpoint on who he claimed was mafia. It would be a tell if he changed his view, but it would be a tell if he didnt. So this is a null point.

Oman never once commented on Gemelli outside of these references. However, dybeck did make a fairly rabid attack on Dr. BS in 222 and continued this in 286.

So whats the point here?

In 95, dybeck very politely answered a question by Elias. In 981:

And hey Elias, welcome back!!

Aww...scumlove <3

...what? Are you honestly telling me that this is a scumtell? He was not the only one to react this way. Besides him, Aly, essentially confirmed tracker, greeted me in a similar way. Are you accusiing me and Aly of being scumbuddies as well?

So yeah, unsurprisingly

Vote: Elias_the_thief

I would say its very surprising. The only evidence behind your vote is that Dybeck has called me town in the past. However, you have presented no reason, besides this supposed connection, that I should not be considered town. This means that Dybeck couldve just as easily been trying to fit in with town. I consider presenting such a weak case uncharacteristic of what I've seen of you, and frankly, scummy. If it weren't for the fact that you've tried to get me lynched before and know how hard it is (thus rendering it unlikely that you as scum would choose me to try to mislynch) I would probably be fossing you. But I'm hoping that maybe you can back up your case with a little bit more than that. Come on, give me a challenge at least.

[vollkan]

First up, question, AlyG....RESULTS?!?!

Second, Elias, you should know that I am not the type to vote without reasons. I just wanted to get the dybeck relationship stuff out of the way first, before we get to the bottom of things.

I shall address your post and then give my case:

Alright. The first reason seems to hold up, though the second one is iffy, and I still feel that I presented a good case for him being SK yesterday.

Indeed. I gave him a nice 65%. The point is that I am somewhat less convinced of him being SK.

I am still going to plan on the belief that our situation is one of 4:2:1, but now I have grounds for feeling more confident in Orig.

I don't have an definate explanation for this, but the thing that I believe might hve made him say this is that I was the one who supported the Orig lynch for the longest, and because I held that I believed Orig to be SK (which I still do now). Thus, he chose to appeal to the person most likely to support his opinion.

Ouch, bad answer already. Someone's reaching for excuses.

This would be entirely valid, were in not for the fact that dybeck made that call for help in #541. By that stage, you had not actually said anything at all that entire day other than:

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

and

back, and rereading. content later, hopefully.

You can do better than that

And my read on that is that it's for the most part wifom. There are about 3 or 4 instances where you assume that he is doing one thing or another, and that's not reliable at all. You're assuming theres something wrong with me being at 30%, but never really attack me.

Yup, it's wifom. I am not basing my reasoning on it, but I am interpreting it in light of what I know scum characteristically do.

Well, what about me did YOU find suspicious, besides this supposed connection to Dy? I havent seen you post any independant reasons why I shouldnt be considered town.

It's coming at the bottom of this post. Don't wet yourself.

All I see is a consistent standpoint on who he claimed was mafia. It would be a tell if he changed his view, but it would be a tell if he didnt. So this is a null point.

Well, we did see him change his views.

Towards the end he slotted shaft.ed as obv scum and me as obv town, presumably in an effort to buddy up to me in the hopes of winning points off me or, in the alternative, flinging as much suspicion onto me as possible.

So whats the point here?

That dybeck was quite against BS, which suggests to an extent that he may not be scum with Gemelli.

...what? Are you honestly telling me that this is a scumtell?

Humour, Elias (and reaction-testing)

And now: my observations about you.

* Elias enters the game in 23, with a L-3 vote on Orig for his silly suggestion to lynch lurkers. Going after an exceedingly obvious target. Elias then, in his next post, admits it was just a newbie tell then goes after Oman for bandwagoning (oh the irony!)
* 124 you consider wagonning VP, no explanation as to why though.
* A whole lot of nothing for some time
* 988, echoing dybeck, you go after Orig.
* 1021: This is where you dissected my dybeck case. This is important. As I hinted at yesterday, the strange thing was that whilst you conceded most things were scummy or weird, to varying degrees, you pretty much found it lacking. The other important details around this time are:
1) You were clear that "this is not supposed to be a defense." Which is odd. If you were just deconstructing a case, why would I have any reason to deem you being defensive?
2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".
* 1059, you concede how bad the numbers are, and yet in 1078 and 1081 you persist in trying to argue in favour of lynching Orig.
* 1227:

Barring myself, and people that I find are likely town (vollkan and shafted) I'm left with:
"Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne"
Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

No mention of dybeck. Avoidance

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

How marvelously ambivalent.
* Then, in 1274, as the wheels finally turn against dybeck, you jump ship and declare him your preferred lynch.
* And of course, then we have that enormous pissing match with Korlash.
* Right near the end of the day, you chime in with your first actual attack on dybeck, concluding "So yeah. Dybecks scum."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Do not get me wrong, if this wagon gets any larger right now I will unvote promptly. The thing is, Elias, you are my number one suspect right now and I have no qualms about voting accordingly.

As for my unusual brevity, let's not forget that you have had a mere 57 posts this entire game. I have made 250. There's significantly less content on you and you have gotten through this game more or less by lurking.

What I have seen, I don't like.

[AlyG]

Ok guys, i'm so happy to be alive, and during night 2 i tracked Lucienne and got

NO RESULT

i guess this means she is a confirmed townie?

[vollkan]

Ok guys, i'm so happy to be alive, and during night 2 i tracked Lucienne and got NO RESULT i guess this means she is a confirmed townie?

Thankyou for responding

It doesn't actually confirm anything to us. It can mean one of three things:
1) She has a power that she did not use
2) She is vanilla
3) She is mafia, but did not carry out the mafia's kill

1 is very unlikely so, unfortunately, if she is not mafia, you have just confirmed her as vanilla to the mafia.

[Gemelli]

First off, yay for lynching Mafia!

I'm puzzled as to the mafia's choice of NK last night, though. We have a confirmed killing role and a confirmed tracker, and yet they chose to target shaft.ed? Yes, he was everyone's consensus for top pro-town player, but was he more of a threat than two confirmed power roles? I can't find any posts where he breadcrumbed or even implied cop. So something doesn't add up here.

I don't see anything compelling that makes me doubt Orig or AlyG at this point, but the fact that both were passed over as NK targets has me scratching my head.

I agree with Vollkan's analysis for the most part; since we got confirmation of MafDybeck, I was assuming that either Elias or Lucienne had to be scum, because:

* If Vollkan is mafia with Dybeck, he deserves an award for Endurance Bussing,
* Dybeck's apparent readiness to hammer Korlash suggests the two are not aligned,
* Originality is most likely either vig or SK, and in any case is almost definitely not aligned with dybeck,
* AlyG is almost definitely tracker; the only scenario in which he is feasibly mafia requires Orig to be mafia as well.

Assuming that there are either two or three mafia left, this leaves Elias and Lucienne as the most likely suspects from my perspective, with Korlash a distant third. For the rest of you, I should obviously be included in the suspect category.

To be honest, once we learned that Dybeck was mafia, I expected to have to spend a good portion of today defending my devil's-advocate support of Dybeck. If any of you have questions about my posts that you want me to address, please let me know; I will answer them as promptly and honestly as I can.

[shaft.ed]

Bah I thought I over did it. GO TOWN!!1!!eleven!!!

[vollkan]

I'm puzzled as to the mafia's choice of NK last night, though. We have a confirmed killing role and a confirmed tracker, and yet they chose to target shaft.ed? Yes, he was everyone's consensus for top pro-town player, but was he more of a threat than two confirmed power roles? I can't find any posts where he breadcrumbed or even implied cop. So something doesn't add up here.

Two possibilities:
1) shaft.ed left a breadcrumb which they found and we didn't
2) *More likely* They chose shaft.ed since he had no suspicion on him. I mean, my hunting of dybeck was furious, but that's precisely why people might suspect me. Along with my peculiar tactics, aggression and so on. Notice that Eliasthought of possible FoSing me because I am being aggressive to him.

Plus, there is a WIFOM game in not killing power roles.

To be honest, once we learned that Dybeck was mafia, I expected to have to spend a good portion of today defending my devil's-advocate support of Dybeck. If any of you have questions about my posts that you want me to address, please let me know; I will answer them as promptly and honestly as I can.

I will get to you in time.

[Elias_the_thief]

I don't have an definate explanation for this, but the thing that I believe might hve made him say this is that I was the one who supported the Orig lynch for the longest, and because I held that I believed Orig to be SK (which I still do now). Thus, he chose to appeal to the person most likely to support his opinion.

Ouch, bad answer already. Someone's reaching for excuses.
This would be entirely valid, were in not for the fact that dybeck made that call for help in #541. By that stage, you had not actually said anything at all that entire day other than:

Caught up to page 15. finishing the reread tomorrow.

and

back, and rereading. content later, hopefully.

Damn right I'm reaching for excuses. This isn't my post, I don't know why he did it. Therefore anything I say will be "reaching for excuses" as you put it. Anyways, in the context of what I had posted, my point still makes sense. I was pretty much the only one to not put down his idea, and he knew that I still needed to post something.

And my read on that is that it's for the most part wifom. There are about 3 or 4 instances where you assume that he is doing one thing or another, and that's not reliable at all. You're assuming theres something wrong with me being at 30%, but never really attack me.

Yup, it's wifom. I am not basing my reasoning on it, but I am interpreting it in light of what I know scum characteristically do.

Ouch, now that is a bad answer. Any good mafia player knows that all scum act differently. To say you "know what scum characteristically do", especially when you've played in so few games, is pretty sketchy reasoning. For instance, were I scum in his position, I would make my list for the most part the same as an obvious townie. That way, the list looks legitimate while I'm alive, then completely useless once I die. I'm not saying this is what he did, I'm just saying that there are many, many, different reasons for the way that list is. If you're not basing your reasoning on it, including it in your case makes me suspicious that you are trying purposefully to inflate a case that you know is weak.

Well, what about me did YOU find suspicious, besides this supposed connection to Dy? I havent seen you post any independant reasons why I shouldnt be considered town.

It's coming at the bottom of this post. Don't wet yourself.

No promises.

All I see is a consistent standpoint on who he claimed was mafia. It would be a tell if he changed his view, but it would be a tell if he didnt. So this is a null point.

Well, we did see him change his views.

Towards the end he slotted shaft.ed as obv scum and me as obv town, presumably in an effort to buddy up to me in the hopes of winning points off me or, in the alternative, flinging as much suspicion onto me as possible.

Simply the fact that you list two possible incentives makes me more skepticle(sp?) of your point. Regardless of why he did it, all this does is show further evidence to him being scum, which has already been proven. I'm uncertain as to why this is incriminating to me.

So whats the point here?

That dybeck was quite against BS, which suggests to an extent that he may not be scum with Gemelli.

I'm not sure why. Three possible incentives for attacking BS: Distancing, bussing, going with the flow. To say that Dybeck attacking BS means that he is not aligned with Gemelli is nothing more then an interpretation of a wifom action, and certainly nothing incriminating.

...what? Are you honestly telling me that this is a scumtell?

Humour, Elias (and reaction-testing)

Sorry. Already in defense mode, no time for humour (well maybe a little).

* Elias enters the game in 23, with a L-3 vote on Orig for his silly suggestion to lynch lurkers. Going after an exceedingly obvious target. Elias then, in his next post, admits it was just a newbie tell then goes after Oman for bandwagoning (oh the irony!)

1) An attempt to lynch a lurker is probably the best lead you have on page one. I don't see why attacking LAL(urkers) is a point against me.
2) What exactly makes going after an easy target suspicious? As a townie, I saw this as a relevant lead to look into, and applied pressure. As scum, I could've attempted to fit in by doing the same, but have we honestly gotten so wifom that now what began as a mafiosos attempt to look like townie has now become a scumtell and nothing more?
3) I did not just "admit it was a town tell". Orig defended himself, and I felt the defense was sufficient. Way to misrepresent me.
4) I didn't just attack Oman for bandwagoning. I voted him based off of inconsistency. I added that his vote seemed opportunistic as an afterthought. As a matter of fact, the only time I mention bandwagoning in my entire post is when I say "there is nothing wrong with bandwagoning". seriously man, what are you smoking?

* 124 you consider wagonning VP, no explanation as to why though.

Come on Vollkan, you know my position on bandwagoning from our last game. To clarify, it is as follows "bandwagoning is good stuff". Bandwagoning is extremely beneficial to town as long as it doesnt get out of hand. Thus I asked for a votecount, to assure myself that I wasnt just piling on close to his lynch.

* A whole lot of nothing for some time

not a scumtell.

* 988, echoing dybeck, you go after Orig.

"echoing dybeck"? are you kidding me? I painstakingly investigated the posts that Orig had made, wrote up a post, lost it, and posted another shorter version anyways. I'm fairly certain that most of those points were original ones. For the record, agreeing with someone on a point for different reasons =/= echoing them.

* 1021: This is where you dissected my dybeck case. This is important. As I hinted at yesterday, the strange thing was that whilst you conceded most things were scummy or weird, to varying degrees, you pretty much found it lacking.

To correct you, I thought the majority were wierd actions, not scummy. There is a difference. There were really one two good points in the case, thus I found it lacking. You yourself admitted in the next post that it was lacking. So why is it a scumtell that I am the one who's opinion you agreed with?

The other important details around this time are:
1) You were clear that "this is not supposed to be a defense." Which is odd. If you were just deconstructing a case, why would I have any reason to deem you being defensive?

I didn't want it to be considered a defense because:
1) I had not fully decided on whatr I thought of Dybeck, so calling it a "defense" would be an overstatement.
2)I still needed some things clarified, so I wasn't even sure whether I supported your single post yet.
3) You know very well I'm conscious of making scumtells as town. I didnt want to look suspect if he came up scum.

2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".

ok. Whats your point?

* 1059, you concede how bad the numbers are, and yet in 1078 and 1081 you persist in trying to argue in favour of lynching Orig.

I was arguing the actual reasoning behind it, but I never once in those posts said that I wanted to lynch orig that day. I simply noted that I was weary of trusting anti town factions to do what we expected them too.

* 1227:

Barring myself, and people that I find are likely town (vollkan and shafted) I'm left with:
"Korlash
Gemelli
Lucienne"
Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup. If we have only two, or on the off chance that Orig is a mafioso who got caught making the nightkill for his group, then one of those is not scum, obviously. I'm not sure how you get more scum tells off lucienne then Korlash, when lucienne has posted so little. Could you elaborate some? Surely that one post is not your entire case?

No mention of dybeck. Avoidance

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. From one perspective, Dybeck as doc doesnt want to claim early because there is already incriminating evidence against orig, and claiming isnt necessary. Therefore the late claim isnt so outlandish.
On the other hand, Dybeck as mafia can make a pretty good bet that Orig is sk, (or maybe theyre both mafia, to rule nothing out) and the claim gives him reason for a heavy push as well as credibility tomorrow. Even if Orig turns out to be vig, Dy can claim that he might be paranoid or insane cop. So it's up in the air.

I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

How marvelously ambivalent.

Yup. Believe it or not, I as town did not know the truth of his claim, and thus gave a tentative yes.

* Then, in 1274, as the wheels finally turn against dybeck, you jump ship and declare him your preferred lynch.

I "jump ship"? what do you mean?
anyways, is it really spectcaular that I post dybeck as my preferred lynch after being pressured into naming a preferred lynch? Is it really odd that I saw the case by shafted and thought it rang true? You're really making scumtells out of nothing now.

* And of course, then we have that enormous pissing match with Korlash.

/not a scumtell.

* Right near the end of the day, you chime in with your first actual attack on dybeck, concluding "So yeah. Dybecks scum."

I dont believe that was my first attack. Regardless, /not a scumtell.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Do not get me wrong, if this wagon gets any larger right now I will unvote promptly. The thing is, Elias, you are my number one suspect right now and I have no qualms about voting accordingly.

If you will simply unvote if another vote joins yours, whats the point of voting me? Do you expect me to crack under the pressure? Please don't make me laugh.

As for my unusual brevity, let's not forget that you have had a mere 57 posts this entire game. I have made 250. There's significantly less content on you and you have gotten through this game more or less by lurking.

Good for you. Let me remind you that for the majority of that time I was accepted as replacing out of this game. I was already out as far as I was concerned, why post? It was not til Cicero's thread in MD that I heard that no replacement had been found and I came back. I missed like 30 pages. Blaming me for having less post then you is in VERY bad taste, and I thought I wouldnt see something like that from you.

What I have seen, I don't like.

We can't all afford plastic surgery.

[Korlash]

Ok I checked "some" of the thread... did not see anything that looked like any sort of investigation clues from Shaft.ed...

As for my feelings on Orig and AlyG... They may have been afraid of a Doc... Which could explain why AlyG is alive. And they may have been baning on Orig listening to us and not NKing... So in my mind both their claims could still be true. One question.. why would an SK not kill? Doesn't this further help his Vig case?

And I don't fully understand this Elias case you have Vollkan. I have to reread and see what in fact makes him a possible mafia all of a sudden. Comment back on it later...

[vollkan]

As an aside, I find it rather amusing that this is the second time that I have led the charge to get a mafioso killed and then moved onto to argue against you.

Damn right I'm reaching for excuses. This isn't my post, I don't know why he did it. Therefore anything I say will be "reaching for excuses" as you put it. Anyways, in the context of what I had posted, my point still makes sense. I was pretty much the only one to not put down his idea, and he knew that I still needed to post something.

It doesn't make sense. You had said nothing on the topic and yet dybeck randomly asked for your help.

Ouch, now that is a bad answer. Any good mafia player knows that all scum act differently. To say you "know what scum characteristically do", especially when you've played in so few games, is pretty sketchy reasoning. For instance, were I scum in his position, I would make my list for the most part the same as an obvious townie. That way, the list looks legitimate while I'm alive, then completely useless once I die. I'm not saying this is what he did, I'm just saying that there are many, many, different reasons for the way that list is. If you're not basing your reasoning on it, including it in your case makes me suspicious that you are trying purposefully to inflate a case that you know is weak.

Yes, all scum do act differently; my answer is not affected by that.

Dybeck had consistent attitudes towards everybody, except where he went rabidly against shaft.ed and buddied himself to me right near the end.

You ask why I bother to include if I am not basing my reasoning on it. Remember Oman's list of vig targets in Mini 486. I kept referring to it throughout the game even though everything I was saying about it was this same sort of wifom speculation. The fact is that these lists are valuable, not as bases for accusations, but as ways of getting a perspective on things.

The interpretation of dybeck's list is consistent with how I have read his attitudes towards people overall. I think he is most likely to have been scum with (in order of likelihood) yourself, Gemelli, Lucienne or Korlash. Thus, that is how I

currently

rationalise the list.

Simply the fact that you list two possible incentives makes me more skepticle(sp?) of your point. Regardless of why he did it, all this does is show further evidence to him being scum, which has already been proven. I'm uncertain as to why this is incriminating to me.

You said I had showed nothing, other than that he had a consistent outlook. What I was showing was that he had changed his attitude in regards to myself and shaft.ed. It does not incriminate you, but it suggests to me the level at which he was operating. That helps me rationalise his actions. It doesn't relate to you directly, but it relates to how I interpret dybeck and, thus, how I see his relations to you.

I'm not sure why. Three possible incentives for attacking BS: Distancing, bussing, going with the flow. To say that Dybeck attacking BS means that he is not aligned with Gemelli is nothing more then an interpretation of a wifom action, and certainly nothing incriminating.

Hence, why I said "to an extent". You seem to be importing a much greater degree of certainty onto what I am saying than I actually expressed. That point had nothing to do with you; I was merely noting something which ran against the grain of dybeck-Gemelli.

1) An attempt to lynch a lurker is probably the best lead you have on page one. I don't see why attacking LAL(urkers) is a point against me.

Simple. You should know that LALurkers is considered legitimate by a significant proportion of people (myself among them). Thus, I find it rather odd that you would go after someone for proposing LAL; it's very easy to accuse an LALer of being scum.

2) What exactly makes going after an easy target suspicious? As a townie, I saw this as a relevant lead to look into, and applied pressure. As scum, I could've attempted to fit in by doing the same, but have we honestly gotten so wifom that now what began as a mafiosos attempt to look like townie has now become a scumtell and nothing more?

You are experienced enough to know that LAL is not a scumtell, but that it is very easy to draw suspicion onto LALers. That's why I don't like the fact that you went after Orig for LALing.

3) I did not just "admit it was a town tell". Orig defended himself, and I felt the defense was sufficient. Way to misrepresent me.

Hence why I said:

admits it was just a

newbie tell

Way to misrepresent me

4) I didn't just attack Oman for bandwagoning. I voted him based off of inconsistency. I added that his vote seemed opportunistic as an afterthought. As a matter of fact, the only time I mention bandwagoning in my entire post is when I say "there is nothing wrong with bandwagoning". seriously man, what are you smoking?

This is a language issue.

I thought you going after Oman for his opportunistic wagoning, given that you had attacked him for the -2 thing.

Come on Vollkan, you know my position on bandwagoning from our last game. To clarify, it is as follows "bandwagoning is good stuff". Bandwagoning is extremely beneficial to town as long as it doesnt get out of hand. Thus I asked for a votecount, to assure myself that I wasnt just piling on close to his lynch.

This explanation covers the accusation so I can't argue with it.

"echoing dybeck"? are you kidding me? I painstakingly investigated the posts that Orig had made, wrote up a post, lost it, and posted another shorter version anyways. I'm fairly certain that most of those points were original ones. For the record, agreeing with someone on a point for different reasons =/= echoing them.

In 988 you attacked dybeck's assertion that he had a gut feeling against CC and noted that he had assumed SK. Dybeck had been making much the same line of attack regarding "You really think that a pro-town vig could possibly have found carrotcake the scummiest player yesterday?" consistently (and repetitively)

To correct you, I thought the majority were wierd actions, not scummy. There is a difference. There were really one two good points in the case, thus I found it lacking. You yourself admitted in the next post that it was lacking. So why is it a scumtell that I am the one who's opinion you agreed with?

Let me run through the points:
1)

Dybeck's certainty

- I said weird, but not a massive scumtell; though, I did not like it. Your response was that it was weird but not a scumtell, since mafia wouldn't know who the SK was.
2)

Dybeck's "don't lynch SK shaft.ed"

- I said confusing and you thought a nulltell
3)

Prima facie acceptance of AlyG

- I thought scummy and you agreed.
4)

The fact dybeck said "it's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday" despite having opposed the orig wagon

- I thought this was obvious hypocrisy; you dismissed it as weird.
5)

Dybeck's repetitive craplogic

- Again, obviously scummy to me and you asked for clarification as to what of his arguments I meant.
6)

Singular focus on Orig

- I took as self-evidently scummy; you said "That's not too bad. Town wants that just as much as scum at this point."
7)

That dybeck was only hunting SK and ignoring mafia

- We agreed this was very scummy
8)

Wishy-washy attitudes

- Again, I took as self-evident. You asked for me to elaborate
9)

Dybeck shifting on Oman being the SK

- Me = Self-evident. You wanted clarification
10)

Readiness to hammer Oman, including without asking for claim

- Me = self-evidently scummy. You took it as "Bad town play or obvious scum play. It could be either. Thus I say unto you: wifom."
11)

Dybeck pre-empting the hammer being a townie

- Me = self-evident. You took it as "weird".
12)

The fact Orig would NK if Oman was SK lynched

- You gave this as a maybe and gave an alternative explanation.
13)

The fact dybeck never FoSed Oman all day but was ready to hammer

- Me = Self-evident. You "kind of a tell, but I dont think its too strong. "
14)

Certainty

- Me = self-evident. You = "Normally I dont see certainty as a scum tell (look at just completed 486 where I was certain hermit was scum, and we were both town)."

So yes, that makes 9 points against dybeck which you downplayed; and 3 that you asked for further information on. At the time, I was doubting the case myself and your attacks galvanised my uncertainty.

I didn't want it to be considered a defense because:
1) I had not fully decided on whatr I thought of Dybeck, so calling it a "defense" would be an overstatement.
2)I still needed some things clarified, so I wasn't even sure whether I supported your single post yet.
3) You know very well I'm conscious of making scumtells as town. I didnt want to look suspect if he came up scum.

As you probably guessed, number 3) was what I was getting at. That I thought you were trying to avoid being seen to be defending him.

2) A few posts later you do the "its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline".

ok. Whats your point?

It's ambivalence, which as you know I consider scummy.

I was arguing the actual reasoning behind it, but I never once in those posts said that I wanted to lynch orig that day. I simply noted that I was weary of trusting anti town factions to do what we expected them too.

I know, but in the context it was against the "Say No to Lynching Orig" position. Again, ambivalence. You should have been clearer that you did not want Orig lynched, but that these were issues.

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

Ah okay.

Yup. Believe it or not, I as town did not know the truth of his claim, and thus gave a tentative yes.

For someone with your critical powers, the fact that you even gave a tentative yes is scummy, hence the ambivalence thing.

I "jump ship"? what do you mean?
anyways, is it really spectcaular that I post dybeck as my preferred lynch after being pressured into naming a preferred lynch?

Well, your post has certainly changed my mind on the Dybeck claim. Theres a lot of inconsistency there, and the motivation for scum to fake claim cop there is certainly plentiful. So, I'd put my opinion on the Dybeck claim as a tentative no, as opposed to the tentative yes that was there before.

My perception of you that day was in these stages:
1) For Orig lynch
2) Professing to be against Orig lynch but still criticising the sense of keeping him alive
3) Critical the dybeck case
4) Ambivalent on dybeck being cop, though leaning in favour
5) Dybeck isn't cop (deathbed conversion)

/not a scumtell.

I didn't say the pissing match was a scumtell. I just listed it for completeness.

I dont believe that was my first attack. Regardless, /not a scumtell.

It was the first hard stance that I noticed. And no, it isn't a scumtell per se, but it speaks of last minute distancing.

If you will simply unvote if another vote joins yours, whats the point of voting me? Do you expect me to crack under the pressure? Please don't make me laugh.

I think you are the most likely scum. Thus, I vote you to show I am serious. I don't even contemplate using it to pressure someone like you.

Good for you. Let me remind you that for the majority of that time I was accepted as replacing out of this game. I was already out as far as I was concerned, why post? It was not til Cicero's thread in MD that I heard that no replacement had been found and I came back. I missed like 30 pages. Blaming me for having less post then you is in VERY bad taste, and I thought I wouldnt see something like that from you.

You've completely misunderstood me.

What I was saying was that of the few posts you had made, I had problems with a significant proportion of them. I used myself as a comparator in the sense of I had problems with a large number of your 57, despite it being a small number of problematic posts relative to the number of things that Gemelli had in his PBPA of me.

I don't hold your number of posts against you.

[vollkan]

Ok I checked "some" of the thread... did not see anything that looked like any sort of investigation clues from Shaft.ed...

That's alright.

As for my feelings on Orig and AlyG... They may have been afraid of a Doc... Which could explain why AlyG is alive. And they may have been baning on Orig listening to us and not NKing... So in my mind both their claims could still be true. One question.. why would an SK not kill? Doesn't this further help his Vig case?

There are wifom reasons why they might have left AlyG and Orig alive, and fear of doc. Along with player-based reasons, like the fact that shaft.ed was the most town looking yesterday (since he doesn't resort to using my strange tactics).

And I don't fully understand this Elias case you have Vollkan. I have to reread and see what in fact makes him a possible mafia all of a sudden. Comment back on it later...

He's always been a "possible mafia". He has the strongest links with dybeck and I intend to debate him on this.